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Aviation Industry: Low-Cost Carriers Driving the Growth

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Aviation Industry: Low-Cost Carriers Driving the Growth Market Survey BY: DR A. THILAGARAJ AVIATION INDUSTRY: LOW-COST CARRIERS DRIVING THE GROWTH Low-cost carriers and other entrants together now command a market share of around 46 per cent. Finally, the Airports Authority of India (AAI) was assigned the respon- sibility of managing all national and international airports and adminis- tering every aspect of air transport operation through the Air Traffic Control. Challenges The growth in the aviation sec- tor and capacity expansion by car- riers have posed challenges to the aviation industry on several fronts. These include shortage of workers and professionals, safety concerns, declining returns and the lack of ac- companying capacity and infrastruc- ture. Moreover, stiff competition and Legacy carriers are being forced to match LCC fares, in the times of escalating costs rising fuel costs are also negatively impacting the industry. Employee shortage. There is a ndia is one of the fastest between Karachi and Delhi became shortage of trained and skilled man- growing aviation markets operational. In the early fifties, all power in the aviation industry. As in the world. The Airport airlines operating in the country a consequence, there is cut-throat Authority of India (AAI) were merged into either Indian Air- competition for hiring employees, manages a total of 127 air- lines or Air India, and, by virtue of which, in turn, is driving wages to Iports in the country, which include the Air Corporations Act 1953, this unsustainable levels. Moreover, the 13 international airports, seven cus- monopoly continued for the next industry is unable to retain talented tom airports, 80 domestic airports 40 years. The Directorate General employees. and 28 civil enclaves. There are over of Civil Aviation (DGCA) controlled Regional connectivity. One 450 airports and 1091 registered air- every aspect of aviation, including of the biggest challenges facing the crafts in the country. granting flying licences to pilots, aviation industry in India is to pro- The genesis of civil aviation in certifying aircrafts for flight and is- vide regional connectivity. The lack India goes back to December 1912 suing all rules and procedures gov- of airports is hampering regional when the first domestic air route erning Indian airports and airspace. connectivity. 28 FACTS FOR YOU • JUNE 2010 Market Survey the reasons for inability to realise Passengers’ Status in Aviation the full potential of trunk routes is Year International Domestic Total the lack of genuine competition. The Number in Percentage Number in Percentage Number in Percentage entry of new players would ensure millions growth millions growth millions growth that air fares are brought to realis- 1999-2000 13.29 2.90 25.74 6.90 39.04 5.50 tic levels, as it will lead to better cost 2000-01 14 5.40 28.01 8.80 42.02 7.70 and revenue management, increased productivity and better services. 2001-02 13.63 –2.70 26.36 –5.90 39.98 –4.90 This, in turn, would stimulate de- 2002-03 14.82 8.80 28.90 9.60 43.72 9.40 mand and lead to growth. 2003-04 16.65 12.30 32.04 10.09 48.69 11.40 High input costs. The input 2004-05 19.45 17.00 40.10 25.00 59.54 22.30 costs are also high. Some of the rea- 2005-06 22.36 15.10 50.98 27.90 73.34 23.70 sons for high input costs are with- holding tax on interest repayments Rising fuel prices. As fuel have attracted and are likely to at- on foreign currency loans for aircraft prices have climbed up, the inverse tract more players, which will lead acquisition and increasing manpow- relationship between fuel prices and to more competition. All this has er costs due to shortage of technical airline stock prices has been dem- resulted in lower returns for all op- personnel. onstrated. Moreover, the rising fuel erators. prices have led to an increase in the Gaps in infrastructure. Air- Growth prospects air fares. port and air traffic control (ATC) Declining yields. Low-cost infrastructure is inadequate to sup- The Indian aviation industry has carriers (LCCs) and other entrants port growth. While a start has been witnessed remarkable growth in re- together now command a market made to upgrade the infrastructure, cent years, with key drivers being share of around 46 per cent. Legacy the results will be visible only after positive economic factors, including carriers are being forced to match two-three years. high GDP growth, good industrial LCC fares, in the times of escalating Trunk routes. At present, trunk performance, and corporate profit- costs. Increasing growth prospects routes are not fully exploited. One of ability and expansion. Other factors SWOT Analysis of the Aviation Industry Strengths Weaknesses 1. Growing tourism. Due to growth in tourism, there has been an 1. Under-penetrated market. The total passenger traffic was only 50 increase in the number of international and domestic passengers. million as on Dec. 31, 2005, amounting to only 0.05 trip per annum Growth in the number of domestic passengers is estimated at 50 compared to 2.02 trips per annum in developed nations like the per cent per annum, while growth for international passengers is United States. 25 per cent. 2. Untapped air cargo market. The air cargo market has not been 2. Rising income levels. The rise in disposable income is expected to fully tapped in India and in the coming years, a large number of increase the number of flyers. players are expected to have dedicated fleets. 3. Infrastructural constraints. Infrastructure development has not kept pace with growth in the aviation services sector. Huge invest- ment is required for development of physical infrastructure for air- ports. Opportunities Threats 1. Investments. Huge investments are expected to take place in the 1. Shortage of trained pilots. There is a shortage of trained pilots, co- aviation sector in the near future. pilots and ground staff, which is severely limiting growth prospects. 2. Growth in market size. Growth in the aviation sector is 25-30 per 2. Shortage of airports. There is a shortage of airport facilities, park- cent. ing bays, air-traffic control facilities, and takeoff and landing slots. 3. High prices. Though a good enough number of low-cost carriers already operates in the industry, majority of the population still can’t afford air fares. JUNE 2010 • FACTS FOR YOU 29 Market Survey include higher disposable incomes, the markets. Some of them are Ome- Recent Developments growth in consumer spending and ga Air, Magic Air, Premier Star Air low fares. As of May 2006, private 1. Modernisation of airports and MDLR Airlines. carriers accounted for around 75 per 2. Policy on merchant airports cent share of the domestic aviation 3. Growth in MRO segment Future scenario market. During April-September 4. Airport security policy 2006, the total aircraft movements 5. Augmentation of fleet by various Indian airports are handling be- witnessed an increase of 29.6 per airlines tween 90 and 100 million passengers cent year on year to 494.92 thousand 6. Foreign equity participation in air per year. Nearly 80 per cent of this aircraft movements, compared to transport services growth is driven by LCCs. 318.89 thousand during April-Sep- According to the Ministry of tember 2005. The total air passenger crafts operating in the country today. Civil Aviation, India will need 1500 traffic in September 2006 showed an to 2000 passenger planes in the next increase of 31.1 per cent, compared Top players ten years. Over 135 aircrafts have to 2005. already been added in the last two The Centre for Asia Pacific Avia- The players in the Indian avia- years alone. India’s fleet strength tion (CAPA) had predicted that the tion industry can be categorised is estimated at 500-550. The domes- domestic traffic would grow at 25 into three groups: public, private tic market size is estimated to have per cent to 30 per cent a year until and startup. Public players include crossed 60 million, with internation- 2010 and international traffic would Air India, Indian Airlines and Al- al traffic of 20 million. By 2020, Indi- grow by 15 per cent, taking the over- liance Air. Private players include an airports are estimated to handle all market to more than 100 million Jet Airways, Air Sahara, Paramount 100 million passengers, including 60 passengers by the end of the decade. airways, Go Air Airlines, Kingfisher million domestic passengers. Indian carriers have 480 aircrafts Airlines, Spice Jet, Air Deccan and on order for delivery by 2012, which many more. Startup players are The author is a lecturer in Department of compares with a fleet size of 310 air- those which are planning to enter Commerce, Sri S.R.N.M. College, Sattur Advertisement 30 FACTS FOR YOU • JUNE 2010.
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