Jordan Country Report on Out-Of-School Children
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN INITIATIVE JORDAN COUNTRY REPORT ON OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN DECEMBER 2020 02 TABLEJORDAN COUNTRY OF REPORT CONTENTS ON OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN I. List of Tables 05 II. List of figures 06 III. Abbreviations 08 IV. Preface 09 V. Acknowledgements 10 1. Executive Summary 11 1.1. Purpose and key findings 12 1.2. Barriers to education 16 1.3 Recommendations 19 2. Introduction 22 2.1. Background and rationale 24 2.2. Overview of the global initiative on out-of-school children 24 2.3. Country context 25 2.4. The Jordanian education system: structure and stakeholders 25 2.4.1. Pre-primary education 27 2.4.2. Basic education 27 2.4.3. Secondary education 27 2.4.4. Higher education 28 2.4.5. Education for Palestinian and Syrian refugees in Jordan 28 2.5. Methodology: Analytical framework of Five Dimensions of Exclusion 28 2.5.1. Analytical framework of five dimensions of exclusion 30 2.5.2. Data sources 30 2.5.3. Limitations 31 2.6. Structure of the report 32 3. Out-of-school children and the five dimensions of exclusion (5de) from education 33 3.1. Overview 35 3.1.1. Gross enrolment trends in 2011–2017 36 3.2. Dimension 1: Children of pre-primary age not in school 40 3.3. Dimensions 2 and 3: Out-of-school children in primary and lower 42 secondary school age 3.3.1. Dimension 2: Out-of-school children aged 6–11 43 3.3.2. Dimension 3: Out-of-school children aged 12–15 47 JORDAN COUNTRY REPORT ON OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN 03 3.4. Dimensions 4 and 5: Children in primary and lower secondary age at risk 51 of dropping out 3.5. Trajectories through and beyond basic education 53 3.6. Profiles of children at risk of exclusion 56 3.6.1. Children that never entered school 56 3.6.2. Patterns of school dropout 57 3.6.3. Factors related to the risk of dropping out before completing basic 59 education 3.6.4. Profiles of children at risk of dropping out before completing basic 63 education 3.7. Summary and policy implications 66 4. The returns and costs of education 68 4.1. The Jordanian labour market and education system: challenges and 70 opportunities 4.2. Returns from education 73 4.3. Costs of education in Jordan 75 4.4. Estimated economic loss due to school dropout 77 4.5. Summary and conclusions 78 5. Barriers to education 79 5.1. Access to education as a basic right 81 5.2. Supply-side barriers 82 5.2.1. Infrastructure and quality of education 82 5.2.2. Violence in schools 84 5.2.3. Inclusive education for children with disabilities 85 5.3. Demand-side barriers 87 5.3.1. The value and expected returns from education 87 5.3.2. Economic barriers 87 5.3.3. Gendered negative coping strategies and social norms 89 6. Conclusions and recommendations 92 6.1. Key Indicators 93 6.2. Barriers to Education 95 6.3. Towards Pre-Primary Education for All 97 6.4. Increase Equitable Access to Quality Basic Education (Grades 1–10) 99 6.5. Increase Returns from Education in Jordan 104 04 JORDAN COUNTRY REPORT ON OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN 7. Postscript to the out-of-school children study 106 References 111 VI. Annex 118 VI.1. Appendix 1. EMIS and dos data and methodology 118 VI.1.1. Data 118 VI.1.1.1. DOS population data 118 VI.1.1.2. EMIS Panel 2011/12 – 2017/18 120 VI.1.1.3. EMIS 2017/18 123 VI.1.1.4. Data preparation 123 VI.1.2. Methodology 124 VIII.1.2.1. Gross enrolment rates 124 VIII.1.2.2. Core tables EMIS/DOS 124 VI.2. Appendix 2. Gross enrolment rates by governorate 126 VI.3. Appendix 3. Core tables: EMIS 2017/18 132 VI.4. Appendix 4. Profiles of children at risk 141 VI.5. Appendix 5. Estimating returns from education 146 Cover photo ©UNICEF/Herwig I. LIST OF TABLES 05 Table 1. Schools in Jordan according to authority 26 Table 2. Summary of children out of school or at risk of dropping out by 38 Dimension, 2017/18 Table 3. Comparing dimensions by data source 39 Table 4. OOS and GPI for primary school (Grades 1–6; age 6–11), by nationality 44 Table 5. OOS and GPI for lower secondary school (Grades 7–10; age 12–15) 48 Table 6. Children at risk of dropping out, 2017/18 51 Table 7. Lower and upper secondary completion rates by gender and nationality, 55 and GPI Table 8. Reason (self-reported) for dropping out before completing basic 59 education, by gender, nationality and location Table 9. Distribution of the labour force in three sectors, by nationality 71 Table 10. Matching of required and actual education level in the employed 72 workforce Table 11. Returns to education (dependent variable = log of hourly wages) 73 Table 12. Returns to education (dependent variable = log of hourly wages) for 74 different sub-groups Table 13. The average annual cost of education per child, disaggregated by level of 77 education and school size for 2018/19 Table 14. Estimated annual earnings of workers who did and did not complete 78 basic education Table 15. Number of children aged 6–17, 2011–2017, by governorate 118 Table 16. Number schools included in the EMIS panel per year, by district 120 Table 17. Students attending school, 2011–2017, by governorate 122 Table 18. Gender parity ratios (girls/boys) of gross enrolment rates, by school level 130 and governorate Table 19. Summary statistics on the prevalence of school dropout among 141 12–20-year-olds, by residence, sex and nationality Table 20. Factors associated with school dropout, marginal effects 143 Table 21. Estimating returns from education, different models 147 Table 22. Full statistical output of two-stage Heckman-selection models for 148 different population groups 06 II. LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Overview of the structure and responsible Government bodies for public 26 education in Jordan Figure 2. 5DE and the corresponding ages and grades in the Jordanian system 29 Figure 3. Number of children by nationality, age 6–15 per governorate 35 Figure 4. Number of children by nationality, age 6–15 36 Figure 5. Gross enrolment rates and gender parity ratios, 2011–2017 37 Figure 6. Education status of school-age children by age (6–17) 38 Figure 7. Dimension 1: Percentage of children, aged 5, that are not in pre-primary 40 or primary school Figure 8. Pre-primary ANAR by nationality and gender, and gender parity ratio 41 Figure 9. Pre-primary ANAR by wealth quintile and gender, and gender parity ratio 42 Figure 10. Out-of-school rates by age and gender, and gender parity ratio, 2017/18 43 Figure 11. Dimension 2: OOS absolute number per Governorate 44 Figure 12. Number of children (6–11) out of school and GPI, per governorate 45 Figure 13. Dimension 2: OOS rates by gender and wealth quintile (age 6–11) 46 Figure 14. Dimension 2: OOS rates by gender and mother’s level of education (age 47 6–11) Figure 15. Dimension 3: Number of children out-of-school, per governorate 48 Figure 16. Lower secondary ANER GPI, per governorate 49 Figure 17. Dimension 3: OOS rates by gender and wealth quintile (age 12–15) 50 Figure 18. Dimension 3: OOS rates by gender and mother’s level of education (age 50 12–15) Figure 19. Dimension 4 and 5: children at risk of dropping out by gender and wealth 53 quintile Figure 20. Pathway analysis of children aged 16–17 through the education system 54 Figure 21. Figure 21. Upper secondary net attendance rate by gender and GPI 55 Figure 22. Children (6–17) that never entered school, by gender 56 Figure 23. Highest grade completed by dropouts 57 Figure 24. Highest grade completed by dropouts, by nationality 58 Figure 25. Prevalence of dropout by gender and nationality 60 Figure 26. Factors associated with the likelihood of dropping out of basic education 61 Figure 27. Probability of school dropout by risk factor 63 Figure 28. Risk factors for school dropout, by gender 64 JORDAN COUNTRY REPORT ON OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN 07 Figure 29. Cumulative risk factors for school dropout 66 Figure 30. Employed in the past seven days, including in the informal sector, for 70 those aged 16 and above Figure 31. Distribution of the labour force in the formal (left) and informal (right) 71 sector Figure 32. Education expenditure as % of GDP over time, selected countries 75 Figure 33. Overview of education expenditure by item, over time, 1,000 JOD 76 Figure 34. Overview of education expenditure by item, over time, % of total 76 Figure 35. Gross enrolment rates for primary school grades (1–6), 127 by governorate 2011–2017 Figure 36. Gross enrolment rates for lower secondary school grades (7–10), 128 by governorate 2011–2017 Figure 37. Gross enrolment rates for upper secondary school grades (11–12), 129 by governorate 2011–2017 08 III. ABBREVIATIONS 5DE FIVE DIMENSIONS OF EXCLUSION ANAR ADJUSTED NET ATTENDANCE RATE ANER ADJUSTED NET ENROLMENT RATE DHS DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEY (Jordan Population and Family Health Survey) DOS DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS ECD EARLY CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT ECCE EARLY CHILDHOOD CARE AND EDUCATION EMIS EDUCATION MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM ESP EDUCATION STRATEGIC PLAN GAR GROSS ATTENDANCE RATE GER GROSS ENROLMENT RATE HPC HIGHER POPULATION COUNCIL JLMPS JORDAN LABOR MARKET PANEL SURVEY KG KINDERGARTEN MDG MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS MOE MINISTRY OF EDUCATION MOF MINISTRY OF FINANCE MOSD MINISTRY OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT NAF NATIONAL AID FUND NAR NET ATTENDANCE RATE NER NET ENROLMENT RATE OLS ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES OOS OUT-OF-SCHOOL OOSCI OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN INITIATIVE QRCE QUEEN RANIA CENTER FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP SDG SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOAL UNESCO UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND CULTURAL ORGANIZATION UNHCR UNITED NATIONS HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR REFUGEES UNICEF UNITED NATIONS CHILDREN’S FUND UNRWA UNITED NATIONS RELIEF AND WORKS AGENCY FOR PALESTINE REFUGEES IN THE NEAR EAST WFP WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME IV.