Post Gu 2010

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Information for Better August 18th 2010 Livelihoods Northwest

Swiss Agency for EUROPEAN COMMISSION Development and Cooperation SDC Gu 2010 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

Field staff had normal access to all livelihoods in the Northwest regions in Gu 2010 Assessment Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income • 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugal Valley, and Golis/Guban Pastoralists)  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products  Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and own production  Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat

• 2Agro-pastoralLivelihoods (TogdheerandNorthwestAgro-pastoral)  TogdheerAgro-Pastoral aremorepastoral,howeverthereisan increasingdependencyoncropandfodderproduction.Mainsourcesof income:saleoflivestock&livestockproducts,self-employmentandfodder sales. Mainsourceoffood: Owncropandfoodpurchase  NorthwestAgro-pastoral aremoreagriculturiststhanpastoralists.Main sourcesofincome:saleofcrops,livestockproductsandlabour; Mainsourcesoffood: owncropproductionandpurchase. Climate Performance of the Gu 2010 Rainfall

Overall Statement : Largely good rainfall performance positively impacting both rangeland and crop conditions

Gu Seasonal Rains (April-June 2010 ) •Start of Season : Unusual rainsstarted early in 3rd dekad of Feb. ‘10 in most parts of the region, which were followed by Gu rains that continued till June ‘10. •Temporal and Spatial Distribution : Duration and distribution of the rainfall was good in most livelihood zones of the Northwest regions • Regions with some dry spells: Parts of Sanag region •Normal to above normal rains in livelihood zones : Hawd, Nugal valley, Sool Plateau, west Golis-Guban and Agropastoral (150-200% LTM). •Below normal rains in livelihood zones : Gebi valley of Lasqoray and parts of east Golis (40- 60% of normal June ‘10) •Pasture condition is good to average, except Gebi valley (Lasqoray) and parts of east Golis which is poor.

Karan Rains (July –Sept. ’10.) •Start of Season : Karan rains started on time in July ’10 and are still ongoing •Temporal and Spatial Distribution : Karan rains are widely distributed in agro-pastoral areas of W/galbeed and regions •Normal rains : in most parts of Northwest and Agropastoral livelihood zones Climate Performance of the Gu 2010 Season

HudunStandardized difference from LTA RFE 3.0 CNDVI 2.5 70% range 2.0 1.5 1.0

s 0.5 e r 0.0 o

c -0.5 s - -1.0 Z -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 r r r r r r r r r r r u u u u u u u u u u u u y y y y y y y y y y y g g g g g g g g g g g g e e e e e e e e e e e d d d d d d d d d d d

19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 2010

Years

Hargeisaagropastoral Standardized difference from LTA RFE CNDVI 2.5 70% range 2.0 1.5 1.0 s e

r 0.5 o

c 0.0 s - -0.5 Z -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 r r r r r r r r r r r r u u u u u u u u u u u u y y y y y y y y y y y y g g g g g g g g g g g g e e e e e e e e e e e e d d d d d d d d d d d d

199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 Years July NDVI difference from long term average Civil Insecurity

CivilSecuritySituation:

 Overallthesecuritysituationinthe Northwestremainsstable.  Thereishighpoliticaltensionwithsporadic openclashesbetweenSomalilandAuthority and clan -based militia from Buhoodle district ofTogdheerregion.However,effortsare madebyeldersandthenewlyelected governmenttopromotepeaceinthearea.

DirectandIndirectImpactsonFood Security&Nutrition:

 Limitedmovementoftransport  Increasedtransportationcosts

Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Agriculture Northwest Cereal Production

Gu Cereal Production and Karan ProjectedProductionEstimates in (Northwest)

Gu 2010 Production in MT Gu-Karan 2010 Gu-Karan 2010 as Gu-Karan 2010 as % of Gu- % of 5 year Regions as % of Gu- Karan PWA average Karan 2009 (1998-2010) (2005-2009) MaizeSorghumTotal Cereal

2575* Awdal 1511 2575* 350%136%127% 1511

Togdheer 445293233771430%620%466%

33800* Woqooyi Galbeed 7141 33800* 588%282%239% 7141

36375* 36375* 9097 735%286%230% 2932 11529 TOTAL

* Projected sorghum production Agriculture Trends in Gu/Karan ‘10 Crop Harvest Estimates

Gebiley 62% Gu/Karan ‘10 Crop Estimates (Harvested & Projected) Regional Distribution 22%

Togdheer Awdal 7% 9%

Long Term Trends in Gu-Karan Crop Production (1998-2010) Agriculture Gu 2010 Assessment Photos

Good Crop Harvest. Good Sorghum Establishment. Gatiitalay, Oodweyne, Togdheer, July 2010 Idhanka, Gabiley, W. Galbeed, July 2010 Agriculture

Gu 2010 Local Cereal Flow Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade -

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor

(kg of sorghum /daily wage) Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade -Hargeysa

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor

(Kg of sorghum/ daily wage) Livestock

Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July ’10

• Good performance of Gu ’10 season

•Positively impact of rains on both pasture/ browse and water conditions

•Good to average livestock body conditions, however below average milk production due to low calving

•High to medium conception

•Normallivestockmigration Livestock Livestock Body Conditions & Trends in Production

Milk Expected Herd Size Projections at Conception Calving/kidding Region production calving/ kidding (July -Dec ’10) (Gu ‘10) (Gu ‘10) (Gu ‘10) July -Dec ’10 LivelihoodsLivestock species

NW Hawd Hawd All Species: Hawd: HawdCamel : Near Baseline. Decreased by Camel : High to Camel: Low to none Camel : Low to 12% between Jan –Jun ‘10, but Medium Sheep/goats: Below Medium expected to increase by 3% till Dec. ‘10 Sheep/goats: Medium to High Average Sh/goats: Sheep/goats : Same as Baseline. High to Medium High to Medium Decreased by 4% between Jan –Jun ‘10, but expected to increase by 5% till Nugaal valley : Nugaal Valley Below Nugaal valley: Dec. ‘10 Camel: High to Camel: Low to none Average Camel: Medium Nugaal Valley Camel: Below Baseline. Decreased by medium Sheep/goat: High to to Low 5% of Baseline between Jan – Jun ’10, Sheep/goats: Medium Sh/goats: High but is expected to increase by 6% till Medium to High to Medium Dec. 10 Sheep/Goats: Below Baseline. Sool plateau Sool Plateau Below Increased by 5% between Jan –Jun ‘10 Came l: High to Camel : None Average Sool plateau: and expected further increase of 9% till Medium Sheep/goats : High Camel: Low to Dec ‘10 Sheep/goats: to Medium None High to Medium Sool Plateau Camel : Below Baseline. Maintained the Dec. Golis/Guban: ‘09 Herd size and expected unchanged till Golis/Guban : Golis/Guban Below Camel: Low to Dec. ’10% Camel: High to Camel: Low to None Average Medium Sheep/Goat : Near Baseline. Decreased by 1% Medium Sheep/goats: Sh/Goat: between Jan –Jun ‘10 and is expected to increase by 4% till Dec. ‘10 Sheep/goats: Medium to High High to Medium High to Medium Golis gubanCamel : Above Baseline. Increased by 35% between Jan –Jun ‘10 and further increase of 19% is expected till Dec. ‘10

Sheep/goats : Near Baseline. Increased by 9% between Jan –Jun ’10 and is expected to increase by 11% of Baseline till Dec ‘10 Livestock Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade -Burao

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat (sorghum kg/head) Livestock Regional Trends in Livestock Prices & Terms of Trade -Erigavo

Regional Trends in Goat Local Quality Price and Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat Local Quality Livestock Trends in Livestock Exports –Berbera Port

Camel Exports Cattle Exports Shoats Exports Hargesia Price Burao Price

900 70 s d n a s 800 u ) o 60 $ h S T U (

) 700 d s a d e a 50 H e r H ( 600 e P s t e r c o i p r r p 40 x 500 P E k c o t s 400 e 30 v i L 300 20 200

10 100

0 0

Month Livestock Gu 2010 Assessment Photos

Good Body and Pasture Condition. Sool Plateau, July ‘10 Lamb Kids Upper Nugal Valley, Sool Region, July ’10

Good Pasture Condition. Hawd, Burao (Togdheer), July ‘10 Very Good Pasture Condition. Hawd (Hargeisa), July ‘10 Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices

Northwest: Trend in Imported Commodity Factors Affecting Prices Commercial Import Prices: Compared to Exchange Rate 14,000 PETROL 1 Litre •Appreciation of SLSh RED RICE 1Kg 12,000 (cheaper imports) SUGAR 1Kg

VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre )

1h 0,000

S •Decreased global rice prices l SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER S S ( DOLLAR t i n 8,000 U

r •Increased local cereal market e p e c i 6,000 supply decreased demand for r P imported cereals 4,000

2,000 •Low sugar market supply increased sugar price 0

Month Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

RegionNutrition Surveys Rapid MUAC Health Information TFC/OTP/ Other relevant Summary of analysis and (Jan-Jul 2010) Screening (% System Info SFC information –Key change from Deyr ‘09/10 <12.5cm) (Source: HIS data R=3) driving factors

Pastoral –West Golis/Guban HIS TRENDS: Low and stable High but stable MORBIDITY: No West Golis/Guban GAM:13.8% Pr=0.90 3.5 (0.4-6.7) number of acutely trends disease outbreaks. Deteriorated from Alert to SAM: >2.5% malnourished children interventions by WV, Serious-Seasonal SRCS, UNICEF, poor milk availability Hawd Hawd remains Serious no GAM:13.8% Pr=0.90 4.04 (1.5-6.6) HIS nutrition trend: Low and N/A change stable no. of acutely MORBIDITY: No SAM: >0.1% malnourished children disease outbreaks. Poor milk availability East Golis of and Gebbi Valley 2.5 (0.3-4.6) HIS nutrition trend: Low and High and stable MORBIDITY: No East Golis of Sanaag/Gebbi GAM:9.3% Pr=0.90 stable no. of acutely trends disease outbreaks, Slight Improvement from SAM: Pr>0.1% malnourished children poor milk availability Serious to Alert

Sool Plateau GAM:7.0% Pr=0.90 MORBIDITY: No Sool Plateau 2.5 (0-5.9) HIS nutrition trend: Low and N/A Stable at Alert SAM: Pr>0.6% decreasing no. of acutely disease outbreaks, malnourished children poor milk availability Nugal Valley MORBIDITY: No GAM:7.9% Pr=0.90 2.5 (0-5.9) HIS nutrition trend: high and Outreach OTP Nugal Valley SAM: Pr>0.1% fluctuating trend. of acutely showing cases disease outbreaks, Improved from Serious to Alert malnourished children increased cases of diarrhea, poor milk Agro- availability Pastoral Galbeed-and Awdal 5.8 (2.1-9.4) MORBIDITY: No Galbeed and Awdal agro pastoral. HIS nutrition trend: Low and N/A disease outbreaks. Agropastoral GAM:8.8% Pr=0.90 decreasing no. of acutely Poor milk Stable at Alert SAM: Pr>0.3% malnourished children

4.8 (2.7-6.9) N/A MORBIDITY: 35.5%, Togdheer Agro pastoral - Togdheer Agro-pastoral •HIS nutrition trend: Low and DD: Is fair, cereal GAM:12.2% (9.3-15.8) stable numbers of Improved from Critical to available, poor milk Serious SAM: 2.3 (1.6-3.5) malnourished children availability Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates

Nutrition Situation Estimates, Jan 2010 Nutrition Situation Estimates, Jul 2010 IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation

MAP 1: IPC Deyr 2009/10 MAP 2: IPC, Gu 2010 MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES

Key IPC Reference Outcomes : Pastoral of Sool-Sanag Plateau: HE: 50% of poor and AFLC: 50% of poor East Golis/Gebi of Lasqoray district (Sanaag region): AFLC: 75% of poor

• Food Access : Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2100 kcal ppp day • Water Access : water availability normal, but access of the poor for human is constrained due to lack of back camel. • Destitution/Displacement : diffused • Coping: distress strategies, but decreasing • Livelihood Assets : increased, but significantly below baseline

Main Contributing Factors :  Limited asset holding  Lack of milk production (camel)  Reduced household income from own production (livestock/ milk sales)  High indebtedness (loans)  Increased expenditure on water for human consumption. IPC Main Contributing Factors: Togdheer Agropastoral

Rationale for upgrading from HE in Deyr ’09/10 to BFI Gu in ‘10 : •Good rainfall performance in Gu 2010 •Increased cultivated area due to FAO, UNHCR, etc. livelihood interventions (tractor hours, seeds): sorghum: from 560 ha to 2,950 ha, 427% inc.; maize: from 25 ha to 590ha -1360% inc. • Increased cereal production: 1,430% of Gu ‘09, 620% of PWA and 446% of 5-yr average (2005-2009) •Cereal stocks: on average 4 bags for the poor households, that could last up to four months •Increased income from cash crops: water melon, crop fodder and grass fodder •Availability of saleable sheep/goats compared to last season due to improved body condition. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE NW Regions -Affected UNDP 2005 Rural Deyr 2009-10Gu 2010 Districts Population Acute Food and Livelihood Humanitarian Emergency Acute Food and Livelihood Humanitarian Emergency Crisis (AFLC) (HE) Crisis (AFLC) (HE) Awdal Baki16,9232,000000 Borama132,69517,000000 Lughaye22,0942,000000 Zeylac22,8012,000000 Urban 110,9426,000000 Regional Total 305,45529,000000 Woqooyi Galbeed Berbera18,6831,000000 Gebiley53,7173,000000 Hargeysa137,51326,000000 Urban 490,4320000 Regional Total 700,345 30,000 0 0 0 Togdheer Burco191,74852,0002,00000 Buuhoodle28,8218,000000 Owdweyne30,9248,0001,00000 Sheikh27,4007,0001,00000 Urban 123,40253,000000 Regional Total 402,295128,0004,00000 Sanaag Ceel Afweyn53,63814,0001,0001,0001,000 Ceerigaabo83,74818,0006,0003,0003,000 Laasqoray/Badhan76,90228,00015,00012,00011,000 Urban 56,07922,0007,00022,00013,000 Regional Total 270,36782,00029,00038,00028,000 Sool Caynabo24,0267,000000 Laas Caanood50,60615,000000 Taleex20,9837,0002,0001,0001,000 Xudun15,5285,0001,0001,0001,000 Urban 39,13413,0006,00010,0000 Regional Total 111,14347,0009,00012,0002,000 Grand Total1,828,739316,00042,00050,00030,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE358,00080,000 IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Estimated Population Deyr 2009-10Gu 2010 NW Regions -Affected Livelihood Zones of Affected Livelihood Acute Food and Acute Food and Humanitarian Humanitarian Zones Livelihood Crisis Livelihood Crisis Emergency (HE) Emergency (HE) (AFLC) (AFLC) Awdal NW NWAgro-past76,15917,000 Fishing1,1490000 Golis Pastoral74,5923,000000 GubanPastoral 42,6123,000000 Urban 110,9426,000000 Regional Total 305,45529,000000 WoqooyiGalbeed Fishing1,4370000 Golis Pastoral67,4552,000000 Hawd Pastoral70,83020,000000 NWAgro-past: Sorghum, cattle70,1918,000000 Urban 490,4320000 Regional Total 700,34530,0000 00 Togdheer Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel23,6986,000000 Hawd Pastoral223,34763,000000 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel11,9844,000000 TogdheerAgro-past: Sorghum, cattle19,8642,0004,00000 Urban 123,40253,000000 Regional Total 402,295128,0004,00000 Sanaag Fishing15,1930000 Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel56,59615,00004,0000 Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats30,415003,0000 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel37,39611,000000 Potato Zone & Vegetables7,0520000 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral61,34734,00022,0009,0009,000 Destitute pastoralists6,289--06,000 Urban 56,07922,0007,00022,00013,000 Regional Total 270,36782,00029,00038,00028,000 Sool Hawd Pastoral30,1088,000000 Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel72,60822,000000 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral7,6974,0003,0002,0001,000 Destitute pastoralists730 -- 01,000 Urban 39,13413,0006,00010,0000 Regional Total 111,14347,0009,00012,0002,000 Grand Total1,829,739316,00042,00050,00030,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE358,00080,000 w Ç

X x { g