Post Gu 2010 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Information for Better August 18th 2010 Livelihoods Northwest Swiss Agency for EUROPEAN COMMISSION Development and Cooperation SDC Gu 2010 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations Field staff had normal access to all livelihoods in the Northwest regions in Gu 2010 Assessment Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income • 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugal Valley, and Golis/Guban Pastoralists) Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and own production Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat • 2Agro-pastoralLivelihoods (TogdheerandNorthwestAgro-pastoral) TogdheerAgro-Pastoral aremorepastoral,howeverthereisan increasingdependencyoncropandfodderproduction.Mainsourcesof income:saleoflivestock&livestockproducts,self-employmentandfodder sales. Mainsourceoffood: Owncropandfoodpurchase NorthwestAgro-pastoral aremoreagriculturiststhanpastoralists.Main sourcesofincome:saleofcrops,livestockproductsandlabour; Mainsourcesoffood: owncropproductionandpurchase. Climate Performance of the Gu 2010 Rainfall Overall Statement : Largely good rainfall performance positively impacting both rangeland and crop conditions Gu Seasonal Rains (April-June 2010 ) •Start of Season : Unusual rainsstarted early in 3rd dekad of Feb. ‘10 in most parts of the region, which were followed by Gu rains that continued till June ‘10. •Temporal and Spatial Distribution : Duration and distribution of the rainfall was good in most livelihood zones of the Northwest regions • Regions with some dry spells: Parts of Sanag region •Normal to above normal rains in livelihood zones : Hawd, Nugal valley, Sool Plateau, west Golis-Guban and Agropastoral (150-200% LTM). •Below normal rains in livelihood zones : Gebi valley of Lasqoray and parts of east Golis (40- 60% of normal June ‘10) •Pasture condition is good to average, except Gebi valley (Lasqoray) and parts of east Golis which is poor. Karan Rains (July –Sept. ’10.) •Start of Season : Karan rains started on time in July ’10 and are still ongoing •Temporal and Spatial Distribution : Karan rains are widely distributed in agro-pastoral areas of W/galbeed and Awdal regions •Normal rains : in most parts of Northwest and Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zones Climate Performance of the Gu 2010 Season HudunStandardized difference from LTA RFE 3.0 CNDVI 2.5 70% range 2.0 1.5 1.0 s 0.5 e r 0.0 o c -0.5 s - -1.0 Z -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 r r r r r r r r r r r u u u u u u u u u u u u y y y y y y y y y y y g g g g g g g g g g g g e e e e e e e e e e e d d d d d d d d d d d 19992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 2010 Years Hargeisaagropastoral Standardized difference from LTA RFE CNDVI 2.5 70% range 2.0 1.5 1.0 s e r 0.5 o c 0.0 s - -0.5 Z -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 r r r r r r r r r r r r u u u u u u u u u u u u y y y y y y y y y y y y g g g g g g g g g g g g e e e e e e e e e e e e d d d d d d d d d d d d 199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 Years July NDVI difference from long term average Civil Insecurity CivilSecuritySituation: Overallthesecuritysituationinthe Northwestremainsstable. Thereishighpoliticaltensionwithsporadic openclashesbetweenSomalilandAuthority and clan -based militia from Buhoodle district ofTogdheerregion.However,effortsare madebyeldersandthenewlyelected governmenttopromotepeaceinthearea. DirectandIndirectImpactsonFood Security&Nutrition: Limitedmovementoftransport Increasedtransportationcosts Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Agriculture Northwest Cereal Production Gu Cereal Production and Karan ProjectedProductionEstimates in Somaliland (Northwest) Gu 2010 Production in MT Gu-Karan 2010 Gu-Karan 2010 as Gu-Karan 2010 as % of Gu- % of 5 year Regions as % of Gu- Karan PWA average Karan 2009 (1998-2010) (2005-2009) MaizeSorghumTotal Cereal 2575* Awdal 1511 2575* 350%136%127% 1511 Togdheer 445293233771430%620%466% 33800* Woqooyi Galbeed 7141 33800* 588%282%239% 7141 36375* 36375* 9097 735%286%230% 2932 11529 TOTAL * Projected sorghum production Agriculture Trends in Gu/Karan ‘10 Crop Harvest Estimates Gebiley 62% Gu/Karan ‘10 Crop Estimates (Harvested & Projected) Regional Distribution Hargeisa 22% Togdheer Awdal 7% 9% Long Term Trends in Gu-Karan Crop Production (1998-2010) Agriculture Gu 2010 Assessment Photos Good Crop Harvest. Good Sorghum Establishment. Gatiitalay, Oodweyne, Togdheer, July 2010 Idhanka, Gabiley, W. Galbeed, July 2010 Agriculture Gu 2010 Local Cereal Flow Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade -Burao Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum) Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor (kg of sorghum /daily wage) Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade -Hargeysa Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum) Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor (Kg of sorghum/ daily wage) Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July ’10 • Good performance of Gu ’10 season •Positively impact of rains on both pasture/ browse and water conditions •Good to average livestock body conditions, however below average milk production due to low calving •High to medium conception •Normallivestockmigration Livestock Livestock Body Conditions & Trends in Production Milk Expected Herd Size Projections at Conception Calving/kidding Region production calving/ kidding (July -Dec ’10) (Gu ‘10) (Gu ‘10) (Gu ‘10) July -Dec ’10 LivelihoodsLivestock species NW Hawd Hawd All Species: Hawd: HawdCamel : Near Baseline. Decreased by Camel : High to Camel: Low to none Camel : Low to 12% between Jan –Jun ‘10, but Medium Sheep/goats: Below Medium expected to increase by 3% till Dec. ‘10 Sheep/goats: Medium to High Average Sh/goats: Sheep/goats : Same as Baseline. High to Medium High to Medium Decreased by 4% between Jan –Jun ‘10, but expected to increase by 5% till Nugaal valley : Nugaal Valley Below Nugaal valley: Dec. ‘10 Camel: High to Camel: Low to none Average Camel: Medium Nugaal Valley Camel: Below Baseline. Decreased by medium Sheep/goat: High to to Low 5% of Baseline between Jan – Jun ’10, Sheep/goats: Medium Sh/goats: High but is expected to increase by 6% till Medium to High to Medium Dec. 10 Sheep/Goats: Below Baseline. Sool plateau Sool Plateau Below Increased by 5% between Jan –Jun ‘10 Came l: High to Camel : None Average Sool plateau: and expected further increase of 9% till Medium Sheep/goats : High Camel: Low to Dec ‘10 Sheep/goats: to Medium None High to Medium Sool Plateau Camel : Below Baseline. Maintained the Dec. Golis/Guban: ‘09 Herd size and expected unchanged till Golis/Guban : Golis/Guban Below Camel: Low to Dec. ’10% Camel: High to Camel: Low to None Average Medium Sheep/Goat : Near Baseline. Decreased by 1% Medium Sheep/goats: Sh/Goat: between Jan –Jun ‘10 and is expected to increase by 4% till Dec. ‘10 Sheep/goats: Medium to High High to Medium High to Medium Golis gubanCamel : Above Baseline. Increased by 35% between Jan –Jun ‘10 and further increase of 19% is expected till Dec. ‘10 Sheep/goats : Near Baseline. Increased by 9% between Jan –Jun ’10 and is expected to increase by 11% of Baseline till Dec ‘10 Livestock Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade -Burao Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat (sorghum kg/head) Livestock Regional Trends in Livestock Prices & Terms of Trade -Erigavo Regional Trends in Goat Local Quality Price and Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat Local Quality Livestock Trends in Livestock Exports –Berbera Port Camel Exports Cattle Exports Shoats Exports Hargesia Price Burao Price 900 70 s d n a s 800 u ) o 60 $ h S T U ( ) 700 d s a d e a 50 H e r H ( 600 e P s t e r c o i p r r p 40 x 500 P E k c o t s 400 e 30 v i L 300 20 200 10 100 0 0 Month Livestock Gu 2010 Assessment Photos Good Body and Pasture Condition. Sool Plateau, July ‘10 Lamb Kids Upper Nugal Valley, Sool Region, July ’10 Good Pasture Condition. Hawd, Burao (Togdheer), July ‘10 Very Good Pasture Condition. Hawd (Hargeisa), July ‘10 Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Northwest: Trend in Imported Commodity Factors Affecting Prices Commercial Import Prices: Compared to Exchange Rate 14,000 PETROL 1 Litre •Appreciation of SLSh RED RICE 1Kg 12,000 (cheaper imports) SUGAR 1Kg VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre ) 1h 0,000 S •Decreased global rice prices l SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER S S ( DOLLAR t i n 8,000 U r •Increased local cereal market e p e c i 6,000 supply decreased demand for r P imported cereals 4,000 2,000 •Low sugar market supply increased sugar price 0 Month Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings RegionNutrition Surveys Rapid MUAC Health Information TFC/OTP/ Other relevant Summary of analysis and (Jan-Jul 2010) Screening (% System Info SFC information –Key change from Deyr ‘09/10 <12.5cm) (Source: HIS data R=3) driving factors Pastoral –West Golis/Guban HIS TRENDS: Low and stable High but stable MORBIDITY: No West Golis/Guban GAM:13.8% Pr=0.90 3.5 (0.4-6.7) number of acutely trends disease outbreaks. Deteriorated from Alert to SAM: >2.5% malnourished children interventions by WV, Serious-Seasonal SRCS, UNICEF, poor milk availability Hawd Hawd remains Serious no GAM:13.8% Pr=0.90 4.04 (1.5-6.6) HIS nutrition trend: Low and N/A change stable no. of acutely MORBIDITY: No SAM: >0.1% malnourished children disease outbreaks. Poor milk availability East Golis of Sanaag and Gebbi Valley 2.5 (0.3-4.6) HIS nutrition trend: Low and High and stable MORBIDITY: No East Golis of Sanaag/Gebbi GAM:9.3% Pr=0.90 stable no.