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2019 SAI Letter: Money for Nothing: Dire Straits in Valuations

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2019 SAI Letter: Money for Nothing: Dire Straits in Valuations MONEY FOR NOTHING DIRE STRAITS IN VALUATIONS; STOCKS FOR FREE; THE IMPERATIVE OF NO; AND – THE BERKSHIRE FUMBLEROOSKIE, PLUS MORE! 2019 LETTER TO CLIENTS February 14, 2020 CONTENTS MONEY FOR NOTHING DIRE STRAITS IN VALUATIONS; STOCKS FOR FREE; THE IMPERATIVE OF NO; AND – THE BERKSHIRE FUMBLEROOSKIE, PLUS MORE! IN THE LETTER – INTRODUCTION 5 KUDOS 6 INTRINSIC VALUE UPDATE – ADVANTAGES ARE GREATEST AT MARKET HIGHS 8 Forward Expectations 10 Fundamentals Versus the Market 12 THE PETER PRINCIPLE 15 On a Mission 15 The Peter Principle 17 ESG 19 THE IMPERATIVE OF NO: THE LUXURY OF PATIENCE 21 The First Step is the Hardest 21 Understandability 22 Second Verse Same as the First – Business Quality 25 Leverage 26 Management Quality 28 Price Matters 32 THE RELUCTANT ACTIVIST 33 O’Sullivan Industries 34 Mercury General 36 AVX 38 Berkshire Hathaway 41 BLINDERS AT A PEAK 42 The Two-Year Two-Step 42 100 Years of Peaks and Troughs 43 DON’T FEAR THE REPO 47 History 48 Teledyne 48 The “Modern” Era 48 RSU’s Crash the Option Party 50 DEFANGING THE FAB 5 57 Microsoft 57 The Fab 5 59 When Perfection Meets Reality 60 The Nifty Fifty 61 Lower the Bar 62 2 ACTIVE V. PASSIVE UPDATE – Just Set the Table Please 67 READ AND LISTEN 68 BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY: THE SKY IS FALLING 69 Interval Training 70 Above the Fold 75 Bye-Bye Book Value 77 If a Tree Falls in the Forest 80 The Fumblerooskie 85 The Dual Yardsticks of Intrinsic Value 86 Book Value Receives a Complement 87 Oh, What a Night 91 Berkshire Hathaway: Ten-Year Expected Return 94 Estimating Fourth Quarter and Full-Year GAAP Net Income and Change in Book Value 96 Berkshire Hathaway Intrinsic Value Update 101 GAAP Adjusted Financials Approach 102 Other Methods for Valuing Berkshire 115 Sum of the Parts Basis 116 Simple Price to Book Value Basis 121 Two-Pronged Approach 122 SUMMARY 123 APPENDIX 125 Appendix A – Key Business Segment Information – Berkshire 2019 Expected 125 Appendix B - Capital Expenditures and Depreciation; Deferred Tax Liabilities 126 Appendix C – Cash and GAAP Tax Reconciliation 127 Appendix D – Reported Segment Profit by Berkshire’s JV Partners 127 Appendix E – Semper Augustus Investments Group Historical Returns 128 CopyriGHt© 2020 By Christopher P. BLoomstraN AlL RiGHts Reserved 3 2019 LETTER TO CLIENTS February 14, 2020 MONEY FOR NOTHING DIRE STRAITS IN VALUATIONS; STOCKS FOR FREE; THE IMPERATIVE OF NO; AND – THE BERKSHIRE FUMBLEROOSKIE, PLUS MORE! MONEY FOR NOTHING Now look at them CEO's that's the way you do it You play the leader of the company That ain't workin' that's the way you do it Money for nothin' and your stocks for free Now that ain't workin' that's the way you do it Lemme tell ya them guys ain't dumb Maybe add a comma to your little fortune Maybe get a billion in your sum We gotta install the printing presses Grants for you and grants for me We gotta get restricted share units We gotta lift the shares for me We gotta install the printing presses Grants for you and grants for me We gotta get restricted share units We gotta lift the shares for me I had to learn to play dilution I had to learn to buy them up Look at that mama she got her shares out of pocket Man, how is she so dumb And he's up there, what's that? Share repurchases? You bangin' on the repos like capital’s free Oh, that ain't workin' that's the way you do it Get your money for nothin' get your stocks for free We gotta install the printing presses Grants for you and grants for me We gotta get restricted share units We gotta lift the shares for me Listen here, now that ain't workin' that's the way to do it You play the leader of the company That ain't workin' that's the way you do it Money for nothin' and your stocks for free Money for nothin' and the stocks for free Get your money for nothin' and stocks for free Money for nothin' and the stocks for free (I want my, I want my money free) Money for nothin' and the stocks for free (I want my, I want my money free) 4 IN THE LETTER – INTRODUCTION Mark KNopfler and the boys had no idea how prescient they were. MoNey for Nothing isn’t just a classic soNg, it’s a racket. From central baNks aNd their printinG presses to coMpeNsatioN coMMittees aNd their share graNts, never in the fieLd of human weaLtH have so Many done so little for so mucH. Profound apologies to Sir Winston. The theMe of this year’s letter ceNters oN share repurchases. AN extraordinary aMouNt of coMpaNy profits is speNt repurcHasinG shares froM the Market at prices that destroy shareholder wealth. The issue is froNt and center colLecting attention and scorn. However, uNderappreciated is the cause of the angst. Without fuel there caN be no fire. If business executives wereN’t awarded obsceNe aMounts of company stock, share repurcHases wouLdN’t be a thinG. After a Modest portion of profits are paid to shareholders as dividends, more tHaN tHe balaNce, gargaNtuaN suMs, are spent by companies purchasing their shares mostLy to offset tHe dilutioN that comes from the issuance of shares to executives in the first place. THe “more” in more tHan the balance is funded with new debt. GoNe MissiNG is How MucH weaLtH is traNsferred to a small haNdful of industry captains aNd tHeir trusty GiLLigans. WheN tHe tide goes out, we’ll find out wHo’s beeN gorging at the shareHolder buffet, aNd it’s not the shareholder. Far removed from the conveyance of wealth froM shareHolders to executives, a day spent witH tHe captaiN of a remarkable private business helped codify aN imMeNsely useful model for evaluating not only investmeNts in public businesses but in our owN. I hope sharinG higHligHts of the day aNd the lessoNs provided wiLL be as useful to you as has been the case here, eNouGH so that a missioN stateMeNt resulted. THe sectioN is titled The Peter Principle. Any iNvestMeNt process worth its salt begins witH diLigent researcH aNd moves to action. The opportuNity to speak to a great group in ZuricH Led to a discussion about the reasons not to invest in a business. Call it reverse eNGineerinG or invertinG, but the reality is for every investmeNt action taken, sayinG no to countLess others paves the way. Patience May be a virtue, but it’s the imperative to the way we iNvest capital. The letter takes a stab at converting the discussion in ZuricH to a sectioN on The Imperative of No – The Luxury of Patience. When we do invest, we find ourseLves in partnership with people and businesses we admire. GeNeraLLy, we sell a position for price reasons. BeyoNd vaLuatioN, when we are wroNG oN tHe busiNess or tHe peopLe, or a situation changes for the worse, we vote with our feet. Rare is the occasion wheN we Like tHe business, we Like tHe price, but some action compels us to action. We are tHe Last investor on the planet you wouLd caLL aN activist, but the announcement of a “hostiLe” takeover by the majority owner of a loNGstaNdinG portfolio holdiNG at too Low a price forced us to try to protect our interest. The takeover declaration was reaLLy More of a surprise attack, lauNcHed the morNiNG before ThanksgiviNG. The outcome is TBD, but if history is a guide theN doN’t hold your breath for a favorable outcoMe. The Letter discusses a sMalL haNdful of occasions wHere we were forced to the role of The Reluctant Activist. We’ll dig back into an overview of Market valuatioN, which we find expensive, and to our portfolio, whicH we do Not! The market raced skyward last year. HaLf of our HoLdiNGs GaiNed More tHaN 30%, yet none of the uNderlyinG businesses are growing reMotely that fast. Market valuatioNs are at levels oNly seeN historicaLly at secular peaks. Like tHe Late 1990’s, there are pockets of value, and a considerable portion of our portfolio remains undervalued. We’ll update valuatioNs for the market aNd for the intrinsic value of our portfolio. BusiNess quality couldn’t be higher and the people managing our businesses have never been of higher caliber. The portfolio closed the year at 13.5 times earNiNGs aNd a 7.4% earNiNGs yield, wHicH is our base expected return. In addition, we expect returns to cliMb toward tHe MostLy unleveraged 13% return on equity of our combined portfolio holdings. The foLks ruNNinG our portfolio 5 companies invest retained earnings at very attractive returns. By contrast, the market at 23 tiMes earnings and a 4.4% earnings yield, beNefits naught by reinvested capital. With the entirety aNd theN soMe of retained earninGs goinG to share repurchases at today’s 4.4% earnings yield, our advantages prospectively couldn’t be greater and More durable. Sitting atop the Market are the Fab 5 tech businesses, Microsoft, Apple, Google, AmazoN aNd Facebook. Their iNcredibLe perforMaNce businesswise aNd returnwise over the past decade is nothing short of breathtaking. With their combined market capitalization now at a staggeriNG 20% of the S&P 500, and witH sales aNd profits at 8% and 13% respectively of the market’s total, investors must brace for returns during the 2020’s that coMe nowhere close to the 23% aNnual returns enjoyed over the past decade. Expectations are out of whack, for the stocks aNd for the businesses.
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