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Univerza V Ljubljani Fakulteta Za Družbene Vede UNIVERZA V LJUBLJANI FAKULTETA ZA DRUŽBENE VEDE Tanja Hrovat Uradna socialna in gospodarska politika četrte generacije kitajskega vodstva Magistrsko delo Ljubljana, 2011 UNIVERZA V LJUBLJANI FAKULTETA ZA DRUŽBENE VEDE Tanja Hrovat Mentorica: izr. prof. dr. Maja Bučar Somentor: red. prof. dr. Mitja Saje Uradna socialna in gospodarska politika četrte generacije kitajskega vodstva Magistrsko delo Ljubljana, 2011 »同一个世界同一个梦想 « »One World, One Dream« »En svet, ene sanje« (slogan OI 2008, Peking) Zahvala Iskreno se zahvaljujem mentorici izr. prof. dr. Maji Bučar in somentorju red. prof. dr. Mitju Saje za strokovne nasvete in usmeritve ter dr. Bojanu Zabel in Sonji Zabel za pregled in lekturo besedila. Posebna zahvala Marku in Tjašu ter ostalim najdražjim za vso podporo in vzpodbudne besede, ki sem jih še kako potrebovala... IZJAVA O AVTORSTVU MAGISTRSKEGA DELA Uradna socialna in gospodarska politika četrte generacije kitajskega vodstva POVZETEK Magistrska naloga obravnava vpliv različnih ekonomskih teorij in politik na izbiro kitajske razvojne poti. Izhodišče teoretičnega dela naloge so ekonomske razvojne teorije, modeli razvoja, gospodarske politike in državna doktrina »koncept znanstvenega razvoja« četrte generacije kitajskega vodstva. V empiričnem delu magistrske naloge preučujem in analiziram oblikovanje in uresničevanje državne doktrine ter iščem razvojno ekonomsko pot, kateri je sledilo vodstvo pri razvoju kitajskega gospodarstva. Hkrati ugotavljam, katere gospodarske politike vplivajo na izbiro in oblikovanje smernic politikov četrte generacije. Glavne ugotovitve dela so naslednje: Menim, da je četrta generacija kitajskih voditeljev s Hu Jintaom na čelu dobro zastavila politiko znanstvenega koncepta razvoja za reševanje številnih neskladij in problemov v družbi, a zaradi prevelikega vpliva Jiang Zemina in njegove struje, ki vodi iz ozadja, in pomanjkanja političnih reform, so jo le delno izvajali in uresničevali. Ideje in poteze, ki jih uvaja kitajsko vodstvo, so posledica različnih ekonomskih teorij kot tudi prevladujočih gospodarskih politik v svetu ter nedvomno kombinacija notranjega in zunanjega pritiska. Ugotovila sem, da ima kitajska razvojna pot tako skupne elemente določenih razvojnih teorij kot tudi odstopanja od le-teh. Kitajska, ki je tako specifična, si je izbrala tudi unikatno gospodarsko razvojno pot. Ugotovila sem tudi, da je Kitajska nazoren primer, kako se je od drugih držav učila in vključila tuje znanje in tehnologijo na način, ki je bil sprejemljiv za lokalne razmere. Ključne besede: četrta generacija kitajskih voditeljev, znanstveni koncept razvoja, ekonomske razvojne teorije in modeli razvoja Official social and economic policy of the fourth generation of chinese leadership ABSTRACT Master's thesis examines the influence of various economic theories and policies on the choice of China's development path. The starting-point for the theoretical part of this thesis are the theories of economic development, economic policies and state doctrine "concept of scientific development” of the fourth generation of Chinese leadership. The empirical part focuses on analysis of forming and fulfilment of state doctrine together with searching for appropriate economic development path which is followed by chinese policy makers when implementing their own development path for the Chinese economy. At the same time I found out which global policies are influencing on decion making policy and guidelines of the fourth generation of Chinese leadership. The main findings of the work are as follows: I think that the policy concept of scientific development established by fourth generation of Chinese leaders with Hu Jintao on the top, was correctly set up in order to solve many inconsistencies and problems in society but because of the high impact of Jiang Zemin and his faction, which leads from the background, and lack of political reform, the policy was only partially implemented and enforced. Ideas and features introduced by the Chinese leadership are the result of various economic theories as well as the prevailing global economic policies and certainly a combination of internal and external pressure. I found out that the Chinese path of development has certain elements that are common with development theories. China, which is so specific, chose a unique economic development path. I also found out that China is a graphic example of learning from other countries and incorporating foreign knowledge and technology in a way that was acceptable for local conditions. Keywords: the fourth generation of Chinese leaders, the scientific concept of development, theories of economic development and models of development KAZALO 1 UVOD ................................................................................................................................... 10 2 GOSPODARSKI IN TRAJNOSTNI RAZVOJ TER VLOGA DRŽAVE ..................... 14 2.1 Gospodarski razvoj ...................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Trajnostni razvoj ......................................................................................................... 22 2.3 Vpliv države in lokalnih oblasti na gospodarski in trajnostni razvoj ..................... 27 3 TEORIJE GOSPODARSKEGA RAZVOJA IN MODELI RAZVOJA IN PODRAZVITOSTI ................................................................................................................. 28 3.1 Klasične teorije ekonomskega razvoja ....................................................................... 29 3.1.1 Linearni modeli razvoja ......................................................................................... 29 3.1.2 Teorije in modeli strukturnih sprememb ................................................................ 31 3.1.3 Teorije odvisnosti ................................................................................................... 33 3.1.4 Neoklasična kontrarevolucija ................................................................................. 34 3.2 Sodobni modeli razvoja in podrazvitosti ................................................................... 37 3.2.1 Nove teorije rasti: endogeni modeli ....................................................................... 37 3.2.1.1 Pojem komplementarnost in koordinacijski problem ..................................... 39 3.2.1.2 Model velikega potiska (»big push«) .............................................................. 41 3.2.1.3 Kremerjeva teorija O-kroga ........................................................................... 43 3.2.1.4 Vpliv neenakosti na razvoj gospodarstva ....................................................... 44 4 ČETRTA GENERACIJA POLITIKOV LJUDSKE REPUBLIKE KITAJSKE (LRK) ....................................................................................................................................... 46 4.1 Prehod med tretjo in četrto generacijo kitajskih politikov ...................................... 46 4.2 Znanstven koncept razvoja (Kēxué Fāzhǎn Guān), ki izhaja iz »ljudstva in njegovih temeljnih interesov« (yiben liyi) ........................................................................ 53 4.2.1 Politike odpravljanja razlik in neskladnosti med regijami ..................................... 57 4.2.2 Problemi podeželja in kmetijstva ........................................................................... 60 4.2.2.1 Program »gradnja novega socialističnega podeželja« .................................. 62 4.2.3 Vprašanje sistema »hukou« ................................................................................... 65 4.2.4 Delavci migranti ..................................................................................................... 66 4.2.5 Srednji sloj ............................................................................................................. 68 4.2.6 Delavci ................................................................................................................... 69 4.2.7 Problem brezposelnosti .......................................................................................... 70 7 4.2.8 Zunanja trgovina .................................................................................................... 72 4.2.8.1 Gospodarska rast, vpliv investicij in trgovinska menjava .............................. 72 4.2.9 Onesnaževanje okolja, vprašanje energije in naravnih virov ................................. 75 4.2.10 Zunanja politika: »politika mirnega vzpona« in »politika varnosti« ................... 78 4.3 Politične reforme in 17. kongres KKP ....................................................................... 79 4.4 Nova peta generacija kitajskih voditeljev – upanje za korenite politične reforme enostrankarskega sistema ................................................................................... 90 4.4.1 Nov model nasledstva in pojav kolektivnega vodenja ........................................... 91 4.4.2 Struja malih princev proti struji populistov – tuanpai ............................................ 93 4.4.2.1 Xi Jinping in Li Keqiang ................................................................................ 94 4.4.3 Četrti plenum 17. kongresa KKP ........................................................................... 96 5 ANALIZA EKONOMSKIH TEORIJ IN GOSPODARSKIH POLITIK, KI VPLIVAJO NA IDEJE IN POTEZE KITAJSKIH VODITELJEV ČETRTE GENERACIJE .......................................................................................................................
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