Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024
Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024
Igor Babić Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024 2
Contents
5. Executive summary 20. Operator profiles 6. Executive summary: the continued fall in fixed voice revenue will lead to a 21. eir, Vodafone, Three, Virgin Media and BT are the major providers of decline in operator business revenue in Ireland during the forecast period business services in Ireland, but many smaller suppliers also compete 7. Implications for operators 22. Operator profiles: eir 8. Forecast results 23. Operator profiles: Vodafone 9. The fall in revenue from legacy voice services will drive a decline in the 24. Operator profiles: other operators [1/2] total operator business revenue, despite strong ICT services revenue 25. Operator profiles: other operators [2/2] growth 26. Forecast methodology and assumptions 10. ICT services, mobile data and mobile IoT connectivity will account for an increasing share of operator business revenue 27. Forecast methodology and assumptions: presentation of results 11. Large enterprises will remain the main source of operator business 28. Forecast methodology and assumptions: market definition revenue during the period to 2024; the greatest revenue declines will be 29. Forecast methodology and assumptions: modelling approach from micro enterprises 30. Forecast methodology and assumptions: mobile services 12. Revenue growth from handset data and IoT connectivity services will drive 31. Forecast methodology and assumptions: fixed services [1] an increase in mobile services revenue over the forecast period 32. Forecast methodology and assumptions: fixed services [2] 13. Operator revenue from fixed services will fall during the forecast period, primarily due to a further decrease in the number of voice connections 33. Forecast methodology and assumptions: ICT services [1] 14. High-bandwidth services for both fixed broadband and dedicated 34. Forecast methodology and assumptions: ICT services [2] connections will continue to grow in importance 35. About the author and Analysys Mason 15. Operators’ addressable market for ICT services will continue to grow as 36. About the author businesses continue to migrate to cloud-based solutions 37. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned 16. Operator revenue from ICT services will form a rapidly growing share of the 38. Research from Analysys Mason total operator business revenue 39. Consulting from Analysys Mason 17. COVID-19 impact (Western Europe) 18. Operator retail revenue from businesses across Western Europe could fall by up to 12% in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak 19. Revenue from mobile services, fixed voice and broadband services is likely to fall the most, while some ICT services may benefit from the pandemic Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024 3
List of figures
Figure 1: Change in telecoms operator retail revenue from businesses by Figure 13: Telecoms operator retail revenue from businesses, by COVID-19 service type, Ireland, 2019–2024 scenario, Western Europe, 2018–2024
Figure 2: Connections for businesses and CAGRs by type of connection, Ireland, Figure 14: Telecoms operator retail revenue from businesses by COVID-19 2019–2024 scenario and service, Western Europe, 2019 and 2020 Figure 3: Telecoms operator retail revenue from businesses in 2019 and CAGR Figure 15: Business mobile subscription market shares, Ireland, for 2019–2024 by enterprise size, Ireland 4Q 2019 Figure 16: Percentage of SMEs that reported buying a bundle of two or more Figure 4: Telecoms operator retail revenue from businesses by service type and services from an operator, Ireland, 2013–2017 share of total market, Ireland, 2015–2024 Figure 17: Business mobile subscriptions market share, eir, Ireland, 2017– Figure 5: Percentage of operator retail revenue from businesses and CAGR by 2019 service type, Ireland Figure 18: ‘Data communications’ revenue, eir, Ireland, 2017–2019 Figure 6: Percentages of retail revenue, total employees and total business sites by enterprise size, Ireland, 2019 Figure 19: ‘Managed services and solutions’ revenue, eir, Ireland, 2017–2019 Figure 20: Percentage of enterprises, employees and business sites by Figure 7: Telecoms operator retail revenue from businesses by service type and enterprise size, Ireland, 2019 enterprise size, Ireland, 2019 and 2024 Figure 21: Diagram of the forecast modelling approach Figure 8: Telecoms operator mobile service retail revenue and connections for businesses, Ireland, 2015–2024 Figure 22: Definitions and key drivers for mobile services Figure 9: Telecoms operator fixed service retail revenue and connections for Figure 23a: Definitions and key drivers for fixed services businesses, Ireland, 2015–2024 Figure 23b: Definitions and key drivers for fixed services Figure 10: Number of business fixed broadband and dedicated connections by Figure 24a: Definitions and key drivers for ICT services type of connection, Ireland, 2015–2024 Figure 24b: Definitions and key drivers for ICT services Figure 11: Addressable ICT services retail revenue from businesses by service type, Ireland, 2015–2024
Figure 12: Addressable ICT services retail revenue from businesses by service type and provider and operators’ share of this revenue by service type, Ireland, 2024 Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024 4
About this report
This report analyses the demand for telecoms services by micro, REPORT COVERAGE small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large Geographical Services2 enterprises, expressed in terms of revenue, the number of connections or users and average revenue per user (ARPU).1 Countries modelled Mobile: ICT: individually: ▪ Voice and ▪ UC and hosted voice It highlights that operator revenue from business services in ▪ Ireland messaging ▪ Security Ireland is expected to fall slightly during the forecast period due to ▪ Handset data a continued decline in revenue from fixed voice services. ▪ Co-location and ▪ Mobile broadband hosting It quantifies the market for fixed and mobile voice and data ▪ IoT connectivity ▪ Software-as-a- services, IoT connectivity services and a range of ICT services service (SaaS) (listed in the figure on the right). The report is based on several Fixed: ▪ Infrastructure-as-a- sources, including data from operators, the Irish telecoms ▪ Narrowband voice service and platform-as-a- regulator (ComReg), the Central Statistics Office and Analysys Enterprise size ▪ VoBB service (IaaS/PaaS) ▪ ADSL/SDSL, vDSL, Mason’s 2019 survey on businesses’ telecoms and ICT usage. Segments: ▪ Enterprise mobility FTTP/B, cable, ▪ Micro This report is based on forecasts that were prepared before the FWA, other fixed ▪ Desktop (0–9 employees) COVID-19 pandemic. However, we have included a high-level view broadband management ▪ Small of the possible impact of the crisis in Western Europe and (10–49 employees) ▪ Dedicated updated country forecasts will be available later in the year.1 connections: below ▪ Medium 100Mbit/s, (50–249 employees) 100Mbit/s and up WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT ▪ Large to 1Gbit/s, and at (250+ employees) ▪ Operators that want to identify key areas for revenue growth, both in least 1Gbit/s terms of business segments and individual services. ▪ Pay TV ▪ Vendors that are considering targeting the business market. ▪ Third-party service providers that are seeking to collaborate with Our forecasts are refined throughout the year. This report presents the results operators. at the time of publication and will continue to give useful background information about key drivers. However, we recommend that you always use the Analysys Mason DataHub to view the latest data associated with this report. 1 For the complete data set, see Analysys Mason’s DataHub. 2 See service taxonomy in the ‘Forecast methodology and assumptions’ section of this report. Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024 9 The fall in revenue from legacy voice services will drive a decline in the total operator business revenue, despite strong ICT services revenue growth
We forecast that operators’ retail revenue from businesses in Figure 4: Telecoms operator retail revenue from businesses by Ireland will fall (CAGR of –0.2%) between 2019 and 2024. service type and share of total market, Ireland, 2015–20241,2 We estimate that operator business revenue from telecoms and ICT services in Ireland will fall from EUR1.23 billion in 2019 to EUR1.21 billion in 2024. Fixed services revenue will decrease during this period by around EUR65 million due to businesses’ migration away from legacy voice services. The growing demand for mobile data, IoT connectivity and, most importantly, ICT services (such as SaaS, co-location and hosting and cyber- security solutions) will partially offset this decline. Business revenue currently accounts for around 35% of the total operator revenue in Ireland. This share is expected to remain stable during the forecast period (see Figure 4). Business mobile services ARPU will continue to gradually fall as a result of competitive pressure and the increased bundling of fixed and mobile services, particularly at the SME end of the market. The number of business handsets is expected to increase as the number of employees in Ireland increases. We anticipate that business fixed services revenue will continue to decline more rapidly than consumer revenue, primarily due to the migration Mobile services Fixed services Business revenue: away from PSTN and ISDN connections and towards lower-cost IP ICT services and cloud-hosted voice services and UC solutions. Business revenue Mobile services Fixed services as share of total: All services including ICT
1 Revenue from consumer products is excluded from our business revenue estimates, in line with operator reporting practice. 2 See the ‘Presentation of results’ slide in the ‘Forecast methodology and assumptions’ section of this report for full definitions of the aggregate categories presented in the figures. Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024
Contents Executive summary
Forecast results
COVID-19 impact (Western Europe)
Operator profiles
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the author and Analysys Mason Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024 36
About the author
Igor Babić (Analyst) is a member of Analysys Mason's Operator business services and IoT research practice and the lead analyst for the company's Cyber Security research programme. He mainly focuses on developing market forecasts for business telecoms, IoT and ICT services, and on analysing industry trends within the cyber-security space and route-to-market strategies of security vendors selling to small and medium- sized businesses (SMBs). Before joining Analysys Mason, Igor completed a BEng in Engineering Business Management at Warwick and an MPhil in Industrial Systems, Manufacture and Management at Cambridge. Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024 37
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio Consulting We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms industry: ▪ communications and digital service providers, vendors, financial and strategic investors, private equity and infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters and service and content providers Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces. We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges and opportunities new technology brings.
Research Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises. We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct access to analysts. Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024 38
Research from Analysys Mason Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024 39
Consulting from Analysys Mason Operator business services: Ireland forecast 2019–2024
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