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North West Leicestershire District Council North West Leicestershire Retail Study — 2012 Update Final Report

Final Report March 2013

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CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE OF REPORT ...... 1 2 POLICY CONTEXT ...... 3 National Planning Policy Context ...... 3 Local Planning Policy Context ...... 8 3 STUDY CONTEXT ...... 13 Local area context ...... 21 4 PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT OF CENTRES IN NORTH WEST LEICESTERSHIRE DISTRICT ...... 25 Assessment of vitality and viability of Coalville town centre ...... 26 Assessment of vitality and viability of Ashby-de-la-Zouch town centre ...... 35 Assessment of vitality and viability of Castle Donington village centre...... 41 Assessment of vitality and viability of Ibstock village centre ...... 45 Assessment of vitality and viability of Measham village centre ...... 48 5 CURRENT AND FUTURE STUDY AREA SPENDING ...... 51 Study area definition ...... 51 Source: Experian...... 53 Future population and expenditure growth in the SA ...... 53 Expenditure available to the SA ...... 55 6 CURRENT PATTERNS OF RETAIL SPENDING IN THE STUDY AREA ...... 59 Household Survey Methodology ...... 59 Comparison goods shopping patterns ...... 60 Convenience goods shopping patterns ...... 73 7 QUANTITATIVE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL RETAIL FLOORSPACE IN THE STUDY AREA ...... 82 Quantitative need for convenience goods floorspace...... 91 8 QUALITATIVE NEED FOR ADDITONAL RETAIL FACILITIES IN THE STUDY AREA ...... 98 Methodology ...... 98 Gaps in Provision ...... 98 Consumer choice and competition ...... 100 Over-trading ...... 101 Location-specific needs ...... 102 Quality of Provision ...... 104 9 CONCLUSIONS AND STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 107 Summary of findings ...... 107 Strategic recommendations ...... 109

Appendix 1 – Health check data Appendix 2 – Quantitative data tables Appendix 3 – Household survey

North West Leicestershire Retail Study — 2013 Update

1 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE OF REPORT

1.1 In September 2012 Roger Tym & Partners (RTP), part of Peter Brett Associates (PBA), were appointed by North West Leicestershire District Council (‘the Council’) to update to the Council’s retail capacity evidence base. The study updates RTP’s previous Retail Capacity Study (RCS) for the Council in 2005, and Update Study from 2007. The new study will form a key part of the evidence base for the Council’s Core Strategy and supporting documents.

1.2 Since the previous RCS there have been a number of changes in shopping provision within and outside the District. In addition, the on-going economic downturn has had a significant impact on consumer spending. Accordingly it is an appropriate time to update and refresh the retail evidence base for the District. This study is critically important in providing the Council with advice and guidance on the performance of Coalville town centre and rural service centres in the District, as well as the quantitative and qualitative need for additional comparison (non-food) and convenience (food) retail floorspace over the Council’s Core Strategy period to 2031.

1.3 The focus of the study is on retail uses and does not extend to other ‘town centre’ uses (for example leisure, commercial offices, arts and tourism), although the presence of these facilities are commented on as part of our overall assessment of the centres. The instruction from the Council confirms the principal outcomes which the study seeks to achieve:

(i) Provide a review of the updated national and local retail planning policy context;

(ii) Review the key retail developments within and surrounding the District since the previous RCS;

(iii) Provide updated ‘health check’ assessments of the centres of Coalville, Ashby-de-la-Zouch, Castle Donington, Ibstock and Measham;

(iv) Provide an updated assessment of shopping patterns of residents in the District, informed by the findings of a new household telephone survey;

(v) Provide updated capacity forecasts for comparison and convenience goods floorspace in the District, over the period to 2031;

(vi) Based on the findings of (i)-(v), set out a series of strategic recommendations to inform the Council’s emerging Core Strategy.

1.4 Our assessment has been supported by a household survey of shopping patterns of residents of North West Leicestershire District, which was undertaken by NEMS Market Research in October 2012. As no household survey was undertaken in support of the 2007 RCS, this survey supersedes that undertaken in support of the 2005 RCS. Where possible we have sought to keep the key inputs into the household survey — for example the overall study area and disaggregation into survey zones — identical to the previous survey in order to allow for changes in shopping patterns to be evaluated.

1.5 The remainder of the report is structured as follows:

. Section 2 sets out the national and local planning policy context for the study; . Section 3 reviews the wider changes in shopping patterns which have taken place subsequent to the previous RCS, including the implications of the economic downturn and the role of online

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shopping. It also contextualises the study by reviewing the major changes in shopping provision which have taken place since the previous household survey, which may influence the shopping patterns of residents; . Section 4 provides updated ‘health check’ assessments of the centres of Coalville, Ashby, Castle Donington, Ibstock and Measham, assessed against indicators set out in national planning policy guidance; . Section 5 sets out the current and expected future levels of spending on comparison and convenience goods shopping within the District (referred to as the ‘study area’ throughout this report); . Section 6 sets out the findings of the household survey into current patterns of retail spending across the study area; . Section 7 sets out the quantitative need for additional comparison and convenience goods retail floorspace in the District over the period to 2031; . Section 8 considers the qualitative need for additional retail floorspace across the District; . Section 9 draws together the findings of the preceding sections to set out a series of strategic recommendations to inform the Council’s Core Strategy; and . Section 10 sets out our conclusions.

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2 POLICY CONTEXT

2.1 In this section we consider the key developments in national and local planning policy which have taken place since the completion of the previous retail capacity evidence base studies for the Council. Most significantly at the national level, Planning Policy Statement 6 (PPS6), which was the extant national planning policy guidance at the time of the RCS in 2005 and Update Study in 2007, was replaced in 2009 by Planning Policy Statement 4 (PPS4), and more recently by the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), which was published by Government on 27 March 2012. The NPPF therefore is the current national planning policy guidance under which this Study has been prepared. It sets out the Government’s planning policies for England and how these are expected to be applied.

2.2 There have also been changes at the regional and local level: Government intends to abolish regional-level planning; should this proceed, this East Midlands Regional Plan will no longer form part of the development plan. At the local level, the saved policies of the North West Leicestershire Local Plan (adopted 2002) remain the extant local-level policies which guide development in the District; however the Council has made significant progress with its emerging Core Strategy, which has now reached pre-submission stage. Upon adoption the Core Strategy will replace the Local Plan as the principal strategic planning document for the District.

2.3 We discuss these documents in detail below.

National Planning Policy Context National Planning Policy Framework (2012)

2.4 On 27 March 2012, the Government published the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), which consolidates guidance set out in preceding Planning Policy Statements (PPS), Planning Policy Guidance (PPG), and a number of related circulars, into a single document. Following its publication, this document now forms the statutory national planning policy guidance against which applications for new development must be assessed. However, in relation to retail matters, the DCLG have confirmed that the ‘Practice Guidance’ which accompanied PPS4 (the predecessor to the NPPF in relation to retail matters) remains extant, prior to Government producing replacement guidance. Therefore, throughout the course of this document, we continue to draw reference to the Practice Guidance where appropriate.

2.5 Paragraph 6 of the NPPF confirms that ‘the purpose of the planning system is to contribute to the achievement of sustainable development’ and provides the economic, social and environmental implications of this for the planning system. Paragraph 9 adds that ‘pursuing sustainable development involves seeking positive improvements in the quality of the built, natural and historic environment, as well as in people’s quality of life’ through a variety of means, including ‘making it easier for jobs to be created in cities, towns and villages’, and ‘replacing poor design with better design’.

2.6 The NPPF makes it clear that there should be a presumption in favour of sustainable development. The Ministerial Foreword to the NPPF makes this point clear from the outset, stating that ‘Development that is sustainable should go ahead, without delay — a presumption in favour of sustainable development that is the basis for every plan, and every decision’. This is detailed further in the main text of the NPPF, with Paragraph 14 stating that ‘At the heart of the NPPF is a

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presumption in favour of sustainable development, which should be seen as a golden thread running through both plan-making and decision-taking’.

2.7 For plan-making, this presumption in favour of sustainable development means that ‘local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area’ and that ‘Local Plans should meet objectively assessed needs, with sufficient flexibility to adapt to rapid change’ (unless the adverse impacts of doing so would significantly outweigh the benefits, or specific policies contained within the NPPF indicate that development should be restricted).

2.8 Paragraph 15 of the NPPF adds that ‘Policies in Local Plans should follow the approach of the presumption in favour of sustainable development, so that it is clear that development which is sustainable can be approved without delay. All plans should be based upon and reflect the presumption in favour of sustainable development, with clear policies that will guide how the presumption should be applied locally’.

2.9 Paragraph 17 of the NPPF sets out a series of 12 ‘Core Planning Principles’ which should underpin both plan-making and decision-taking. These 12 Principles include a requirement that planning should be ‘genuinely plan-led’, with ‘succinct plans’ to shape development of an area. Local planning authorities should also support sustainable economic development, and plans should take account of market signals to set out a clear strategy for allocating sufficient land for development.

2.10 Paragraphs 23 to 27 of the NPPF (‘ensuring the vitality of town centres’) pay particular attention to retail matters. The NPPF retains the approach set out in PPS6, PPS4 and preceding national planning guidance by advocating a ‘town centres first approach’, stating that planning policies should positively promote competitive town centre environments (paragraph 23). In drawing up Local Plans, LPAs should:

. Recognise town centres as the heart of their communities and pursue policies to support their viability and vitality; . Define a network and hierarchy of centres that is resilient to anticipated future economic changes; . Define the extent of town centres and primary shopping areas, based on a clear definition of primary and secondary frontages in designated centres, and set policies that make clear which uses will be permitted in such locations; . Promote competitive town centres that provide customer choice and a diverse retail offer and which reflect the individuality of town centres; . Retain and enhance existing markets and, where appropriate, re-introduce or create new ones, ensuring that markets remain attractive and competitive; . Allocate a range of suitable sites to meet the scale and type of development needed in town centres. It is important that needs for retail, leisure, office and other main town centre uses are met in full and are not compromised by limited site availability. Local planning authorities should therefore undertake an assessment of the need to expand town centres to ensure a sufficient supply of suitable sites; . Allocate appropriate edge of centre sites for main town centre uses that are well connected to the town centre where suitable and viable town centre sites are not available. If sufficient edge of centre sites cannot be identified, set policies for meeting the identified needs in other accessible locations that are well connected to the town centre;

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. Set policies for the consideration of proposals for main town centre uses which cannot be accommodated in or adjacent to town centres; . Recognise that residential development can play an important role in ensuring the vitality of centres and set out policies to encourage residential development on appropriate sites; and . Where town centres are in decline, local planning authorities should plan positively for their future to encourage economic activity’.

2.11 Paragraphs 24 to 27 of the NPPF discuss the principal ‘tests’ which LPAs should apply to applications for retail development which fall outside defined town centre locations. Firstly, applications for ‘town centre uses’ (such as retail) outside defined centres will need to demonstrate compliance with the sequential approach — i.e. they must demonstrate the proposed scheme cannot be accommodated on an in-centre site (if the application site is in an edge-of-centre location), or either an in-centre or an edge-of-centre (if the application site is in an out-of-centre location). Both applicants and local planning authorities are expected to demonstrate flexibility on issues such as format and scale.

2.12 Applications for ‘town centre uses’ outside defined centres which are above 2,500 sq.m (or a locally- set threshold) must also submit an impact assessment, to assess the impact of the proposal on existing, committed, and planned investment in defined centres in an appropriate catchment area, as well as the impact on town centre vitality and viability, including local consumer choice and trade in the town centre and wider area. The NPPF is clear that in instances where a planning application cannot demonstrate compliance with either the sequential or impact ‘tests’, it should be refused planning permission.

Plan-making

2.13 Paragraphs 150 to 185 of the NPPF discuss the plan-making, with paragraphs 150 to 157 focussing on the role of Local Plans. Paragraph 150 of the NPPF states ‘Local Plans are the key to delivering sustainable development that reflects the vision and aspirations of local communities’ and that ‘planning decisions must be taken in accordance with the development plan, unless material considerations indicate otherwise’.

2.14 The NPPF advises that local plans should be aspirational but realistic, and should set out ‘opportunities for development and clear policies on what will or will not be permitted and where’ as well as ‘the strategic priorities for the area’, including for the provision of retail, leisure and other commercial development.

Evidence base

2.15 The NPPF also identifies a requirement for local planning authorities to use a proportionate evidence base. Furthermore, local plans must be based on ‘adequate, up-to-date and relevant evidence about the economic, social and environmental characteristics and prospects of the area and be comprehensive in their assessments, ensuring that they are ‘integrated and that they take full account of relevant market and economic signals’ (paragraph 158).

2.16 As such, in relation to retail matters, the evidence base should assess, amongst other things (paragraph 161):

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. The needs for land or floorspace for economic development, including both the quantitative and qualitative needs for all foreseeable types of economic activity over the plan period, including for retail and leisure development; . The role and function of town centres and the relationship between them, including any trends in the performance of centres; and . The capacity of existing centres to accommodate new town centre development. Examining Local Plans

2.17 The NPPF stipulates that Local Plans must undergo independent examination. In addition to showing a Local Plan has been prepared in accordance with the Duty to Cooperate, legal and procedural requirements; the Local Plan must also be found to be ’sound‘. Paragraph 182 stipulates that a ’sound‘plan is one that is:

. positively prepared – based on a strategy which seeks to meet objectively assessed development and infrastructure requirements; . justified – the plan should be the most appropriate strategy, when considered against reasonable alternatives, based on proportionate evidence base; . effective – the plan should be deliverable over the plan period; and . the plan should enable the delivery of sustainable development in accordance with policies in the Framework. Planning Policy Statement 4 Practice Guidance (2009)

2.18 Government published the ‘Practice guidance on need, impact and the sequential approach’ to accompany PPS4 (subsequently referred to in this study as the ‘Practice Guidance’). This Practice Guidance does not constitute a statement of Government policy. However, its contents are likely to be a consideration when retail aspects of emerging development plan documents are examined in public. As noted above, in the absence of an equivalent publication alongside the NPPF, the Practice Guidance remains extant1. The External Review of Government Planning Practice Guidance, submitted by Lord Taylor to Government in December 2012, advises that ‘Guidance is needed on this technical area, but the most useful information is contained in the appendices to the current document. New guidance should be much shorter’ and recommends that the Practice Guidance is retained until new guidance is published.

2.19 When assessing the need for retail and leisure developments, local planning authorities are advised to (paragraph 2.4):

. Take account of the quantitative and qualitative need for different types of retail and leisure developments. . In deprived areas, which lack access to a range of services and facilities, give additional weight to meeting these qualitative deficiencies.

1 Annex 3 of the NPPF contains a list of withdrawn ministerial policy documents (including Planning Policy Statement 4, for example). If a document is not listed here, it remains extant, and the advice contained within it still applies (unless it has previously been withdrawn prior to publication of the NPPF). The PPS4 Practice Guidance is not listed in Annex 3 of the NPPF and therefore remains extant.

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. When assessing quantitative need, have regard to relevant market information and economic data. . When assessing qualitative need, assess whether there is provision and distribution of shopping and other services which allow genuine choice to meet the needs of the whole community; and take into account the degree to which shops may be overtrading and whether there is a need to increase competition and retail mix.

2.20 The guidance provides detailed advice on how to produce an evidence base for retail and leisure developments. This study takes into account the principles set out in the practice guidance, referring to its specific guidance throughout the report.

The Portas Review (2012)

2.21 In May 2011, Mary Portas was appointed by the Government to lead an independent review into the future of the high street, largely in response to the stagnation and decline of town centres nationally, seen as a consequence of reduced spending on the high street. The report, published in December 2011, suggests a number of measures to tackle the further decline of the high street.

2.22 Amongst 28 separate recommendations in the report, there is a call to strengthen planning policy in favour of ‘town centre first’ following the publication of the draft NPPF2. The recommendations included:

. Run town centres likes businesses: by strengthening the management of high streets through ‘Town Teams’, developing the BID model and encouraging new markets; . Get the basics right: by looking at how the business rate system could better support small businesses and independent retailers, encouraging affordable town centre car parking and looking at further opportunities to deregulate the high street freeing up red tape; . Level the playing field: by making explicit within the NPPF a presumption in favour of town centre development, introduce Secretary of State ‘exceptional sign off’; and encouraging large retailers to show their support for high streets by mentoring local businesses; . Define landlords’ role and responsibilities: by encouraging a contract of care between landlords and their commercial tenants, looking at disincentives for landlords leaving properties vacant, and empowering local authorities where landlords are negligent and making proactive use of Compulsory Purchase Order Powers; and, . Give communities greater say: by including the high street in neighbourhood planning, directing more developer funding to supporting community groups, and, encouraging innovative community uses of empty high street spaces. Government Response to Portas Review, March 2012

2.23 The Government published its formal response to the Portas Review in March 2012, which accepted virtually all of Portas’ recommendations. It announced that 24 ‘Portas Pilot’ towns secured funding to set up Town Teams to create plans for the future of their high streets and trail some of the recommendations made in the Portas Review. In addition, the Government will provide investment to help Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) access loans for their set-up costs, as well as funding

2 The NPPF was only published in draft / consultation form at the time of publication of the Portas Review.

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for a High Street Innovation Fund (to help bring entrepreneurs back to their communities) and also a Future High Street X-Fund (to reward towns which are delivering innovative plans to bring their town centres back to life).

2.24 In addition to Portas’ recommendation for National Market Day in June, the Government has plans to double small business rate relief. The Government has also stated its support for greater community involvement in the redesigning of their high streets to reinvigorate areas of decline and to increase footfall and encourage people to live in their town centres.

2.25 The Government however did not support the call to introduce Secretary of State ‘exceptional call off’ for all new out-of-town developments and require all large new developments to have an ‘affordable shops’ quota. The Government states that LPAs are best placed to understand local needs and ‘exceptional sign-off is contrary to the Government’s ethos of devolution. As such, the Government will continue to use the call-in power sparingly.

2.26 Subsequent to the publication of the Government’s response to the Portas Review, a total of 27 ‘Portas Pilot’ towns have now been confirmed by Government, through announcements in May and July 2012. Each winning bid is eligible for funding of up to £100,000, free support from retail industry leaders, and a dedicated contact in government to provide advice and support.

2.27 We note that the Coalville Town Team submitted a bid for Portas Pilot funding, however this was unsuccessful; only two town centres across the East Midlands secured funding from the scheme (Loughborough and Market Rasen).

Local Planning Policy Context

North West Leicestershire Local Plan (adopted, 2002)

2.28 The North West Leicestershire Local Plan was adopted in 2002, and remains the statutory development plan for the District until the Council's emerging Core Strategy - currently at an advanced stage (as discussed below), is adopted. Proposals maps accompany the Local Plan and identify specific policy areas including town and district centre boundaries.

2.29 Whilst there have been some changes in national retail policy since the publication of the Local Plan, the general thrust of policies – which give priority to enhancing the vitality and viability of town centres over other locations – are largely unchanged. A number of policies in the Local Plan which relate to retail matters have expired and thus are not ‘saved’ policies.

2.30 The Plan’s overall strategy primarily seeks to sustain and enhance Coalville and Ashby-de-la- Zouch’s s role as ‘Central Areas’ and principle locations for retailing and associated commercial services. The Central Areas are recognised to perform vital functions in relation to their local communities and play an important part in the shopping hierarchy of Leicestershire.

2.31 Supporting the town centres, the retail hierarchy highlights the important role of a number of Local Centres – Castle Donington, Ibstock, Measham, and the smaller centres of Kegworth and Whitwick, as well as a network of neighbourhood centres/local shopping facilities within the District catering to smaller local populations.

2.32 Policy R1 prioritises the development of retail facilities within Coalville and Ashby-de-la-Zouch Town Centres, allocated sites, and in existing or proposed local shopping areas.

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2.33 Policy R2 supports development that involves the expansion of the Belvoir Shopping Centre and its continuing refurbishment and upgrading. The supporting text, paragraph 9.11, adds that in particular, there remains ‘substantial scope to improve the environment of the related car parks and service areas’. We discuss the proposals for the redevelopment of the Belvoir Centre further in the following section.

2.34 R8 promotes the comprehensive redevelopment of specific key sites for shopping and related purposes within Coalville and Ashby-de-la-Zouch Town Centres. These include: north side of Ashby Road, properties on Belvoir Road, and, the north side of Hotel Street in Coalville, as well as the west side of Bath Street/ south of Kilwardby Street in Ashby-de-la-Zouch3.

2.35 Policy R9 draws attention to priority areas for the improvement of pedestrian facilities and environment.

North West Leicestershire Local Plan (emerging)

2.36 The purpose of this study is to provide up-to-date evidence to inform the formulation of policies and strategic options in the Council’s emerging policy documents, to ensure that these documents are ‘sound’, and based on up-to-date evidence. As the previous retail capacity forecasts for the District were undertaken in 2007, there is a clear requirement for the evidence base to be updated.

2.37 North West Leicestershire’s most recent Local Development Scheme (April 2012) notes that the District’s Local Plan (which will replace the adopted Local Plan discussed above) will comprise of:

. Core Strategy; and . Allocations and Development Management Policies DPD

2.38 The development of Core Strategy document is well advanced, the pre-submission stage consultation took place between May and July 2012. Submission of the Core Strategy to the Secretary of State for Examination in Public is anticipated in Spring 2013. The Core Strategy will provide strategic guidance for development in the District until 2031. The findings of this study will therefore inform the Council’s emerging Core Strategy, as well as the other suite of documents within the LDF.

2.39 Policy CS7 of the emerging Core Strategy directs new development, including facilities and services, to the most sustainable locations in accordance with the settlement hierarchy. Coalville Urban Area is at the top of this hierarchy and subsequently is where the majority of new housing, employment and retail development can be anticipated to be located. The Rural Centres (Ashby de la Zouch, Castle Donington, Ibstock, Measham and Kegworth) are identified as locations for the remaining development, with very minor levels of development acceptable in Sustainable Villages.

2.40 The supporting text of draft Policy CS12 ‘Town and Local Centres’ references RTP’s Retail Capacity Study 2005. The policy identifies Coalville as the primary town centre within the District, and accordingly the preferred location of new town centre uses (such as retail). In the smaller centres of Ashby de la Zouch, Castle Donington, Ibstock, Kegworth and Measham, the Council will seek to enhance the diverse range of retail and non-retail services that meet day-to-day needs.

3 This site has subsequently been redeveloped

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2.41 There is therefore a change in the centre hierarchy in the District proposed in the Council’s Core Strategy, which, compared to the Local Plan, reduces the role of Ashby in the hierarchy and promotes Coalville to the sole highest-order centre in the District, in accordance with hierarchy of centres set out in the East Midlands Regional Plan. Coalville Town Centre Masterplan (2007)

2.42 The Coalville Town Centre Vision, published in January 2007, was produced by BDP in partnership with Donaldsons. The Vision Report is intended to guide development in Coalville town centre for the next 10 to 20 years. It states that, overall, ‘the centre is reasonably healthy in its own terms, but is underperforming and fails to meet local needs, in particular in terms of the quality of food and other retailing and leisure offer’. The dominant position of the Belvoir Shopping Centre in the town is noted, as is the ‘generally poor’ environment of the centre. Nevertheless it is held that ‘there is capacity to increase the amount of comparison floorspace in the town and the quality of the convenience offer in the town centre, and to address the requirements for larger retail units’.

2.43 The Vision envisages Coalville as ‘a distinctive, contemporary market town that provides a full range of retail, community and leisure services for residents and visitors and is becoming a sustainable exemplar of new development. It’s convenient location and strong, positive image is recognised throughout the region and is a source of pride for the local community. An attractive and healthy place to live, work and relax’.

2.44 Three ‘core development projects’ within Coalville town centre are identified:

. Town Car Park Site: potential for a retail-led development scheme to help develop a more integrated pedestrian network . Wolsey Road: a number of large format retail units (5-800sqm.) and a new 8,000 sqm net foodstore set; and . Whitwick Road: potential for a mixed-use scheme to create a strong gateway to the town centre.

2.45 Improvements to the environment of Belvoir Road and Memorial Square are both flagged as being further key issues to be addressed.

2.46 Subsequent to adoption of the Masterplan, two major regeneration projects in the town centre have secured planning permission, however these schemes have not been progressed. We discuss this further in the following section.

The Prince’s Foundation Report (2010)

2.47 The Prince's Foundation for the Built Environment (PFBE) was commissioned during 2009 to produce a Regeneration Strategy for Coalville. Community consultation played an essential part in the Regeneration Strategy, as a tool used to gather information and insight into the town’s historic development, current condition and residents’ aspirations for its future. A number of issues were identified as inhibiting the positive development of the town, from which a comprehensive development framework emerged setting out key recommendations for future change.

2.48 In addition to recommendations for the wider Coalville Area, the Regeneration Strategy frames the future development of the town centre outlining a number of broad principles of development, a central guiding place-making concept, and setting out basic development briefs for identified opportunity areas. The ‘Four Squares Linked by Vibrant Streets’ place-making concept is derived

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from an identified need to improve the variety and legibility of public spaces within the town centre, with the implementation of four district squares: Market Place, Memorial Square, Marlborough Square, and Stenson Square. Each of the squares would be designed so as to have a strong pedestrian bias, spatially enclosed by surrounding buildings with a focus on active ground floor uses to positively contribute to the social life of the squares. For the two squares that already exist (Memorial Square and Marlborough Square) this would require the refurbishment of some existing buildings and a clearer definition and containment of space through the construction of new buildings and improvements to infrastructure.

2.49 The Regeneration Strategy identifies nine key development opportunity areas: . A New Heart for the Town Measures to open-up the pedestrian zone (around Belvoir Centre) by demolishing the building currently occupied by Wilkinson and removing the street colonnade to create a new vehicular access way and Market Place square.

. High Street The development of new 2/3 storey mixed use/ civic buildings to wrap around the Red House to create better sense of enclosure and with active uses on the ground floor fronting High Street.

. Bridge Road Redevelop site of Coalville Market for new mixed use buildings and build a new vehicular and pedestrian bridge over train tracks. Develop site of Co-Op building to provide multi- storey parking facilities with mixed use buildings around perimeters.

. Emporium A number of improvement measures to vehicular and pedestrian links with the development of new roadways, the creation of a landscaped green, and the development of residential units on the southern edge of the site facing the landscaped green.

. Ford Garage Site and Council Offices Redevelop the Ford Garage site as an anchor store with residential flats/ offices above, and the NWLDC offices into a hotel and residential flats. The cohesive redevelopment of both sites could create a shared space unifying the area with the creation of a proper square – Stenson Green and landscaped vehicular and pedestrian connection to the bridge.

. Marlborough Square Measures include the creation of new pedestrian walkways, the relocation of parking facilities, the integration of a bus shelter and the repositioning of the statue.

. Memorial Square and Mitchell Grieves Develop the area as a civic hub by enclosing the poorly defined space within prominent civic buildings, creating new civic buildings, and new and improved crossings at intersection of High Street, Belvoir Road and Ashby Road. New landscaped green within Square to give National Forest a heart within the town. Develop active frontages along Mantle Road with pedestrian and cycle links and a new bus shelter.

. Snibston Discovery Park Greenway Create an elevated pedestrian walk along train track to connect with town centre. Improve rain shelter, shop fronts and road-crossings.

. Ashby Road South New active mixed use frontage along Ashby Road, and new vehicular and pedestrian greenway-link bridge to alleviate traffic congestion in High Street/ Belvoir Road intersection.

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2.50 The Strategy proposes that when the opportunity for a development site arises within a parcel, stakeholders will reconvene to refine the development briefs in more detail. Detailed planning applications would then be considered in the context of the refined development brief.

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3 STUDY CONTEXT

3.1 In this section we review the key changes in the national and local retail landscape since the completion of the previous RCS in 2005 and 2007. We firstly consider the key changes at the national level, focusing on the downturn in the economy, the ‘polarisation trend’, and the increasing importance of online shopping. We then review changes in shopping provision in the local area which have potential to influence shopping patterns.

Downturn in the Economy

3.2 Subsequent to the previous RCS there has been a sustained economic downturn in the UK, in marked contrast to the previous studies, both of which were prepared during an economically strong period for the country. This current sustained downturn in the economy and recent period of recession has had clear changes on the retail landscape in the UK, with a number of high profile retailers entering administration, and discount-end retailers increasing in representation. The downturn also affects consumer spending, with a greater reluctance to spend amongst consumers on non-essential goods. As a result, the forecast levels of spending growth remain subdued, particularly for the short term — although confidence to the retail sector is expected to return to a greater extent in the medium and longer term.

3.3 The economic downturn has also resulted in investors being more cautious. Developers are looking to play competing centres against each other to secure the best deal for their outlet or scheme. Nationally, many planned large new retail developments have been suspended until the economy returns to stability. For example, we are aware of schemes in Nottingham, Oxford, Bradford, Sheffield and Guildford which have been put on hold.

3.4 An additional significant implication of the economic downturn has been reduced house building rates across the country. The effect of this slowdown is that we expect population growth, in the short term at least, to be more muted than previously forecast. This is reflected in the base year population forecasts used in this study. The short term slowdown in population growth will have implications for the quantitative need for additional retail floorspace in the District, and in particular the timing of when this need is likely to arise.

3.5 However, there are some signs that momentum is returning to the retail market, and there also remains considerable development activity by foodstore operators, which has continued throughout the economic downturn. There is evidence of this within North West Leicestershire District, for example in the development of an extension to the Tesco store in Ashby-de-la- Zouch, and, just outside the district, the opening of new foodstores in Shepshed and Swadlincote, which is likely to influence the shopping patterns of residents in parts of North West Leicestershire. However, it is clear that operators are being significantly more selective about which schemes they progress with.

Polarisation Trend in the UK

3.6 A significant and long term trend is the continuing polarisation by retailers towards larger schemes in larger centres which is driven by a number of factors. Retailers recognise that greater efficiency can be achieved by having a strategic network of large stores offering a full range, rather than having a large network of smaller stores, and are therefore increasingly seeking to serve larger population catchments from larger stores. It is also driven by

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consumers, who are becoming more discerning and are increasingly prepared to travel further.

3.7 There is therefore a concentration of comparison goods expenditure in a smaller number of larger centres. Indeed, CB Richard Ellis estimates that half the population currently shops in just 70 or so major locations, down from 200 locations 30 years ago4. This concentration of retailing in larger centres is likely to threaten some medium and smaller towns, and poses a particular concern for Districts such as North West Leicestershire which are characterised by smaller settlements serving a relatively limited catchment area.

3.8 The growth of the dominant foodstores and decline in unit numbers poses similar challenges for small town centres and district/local centres which rely on their convenience/service base. A clear picture is emerging of a network of large dominant superstores, and corresponding decline/diversification in the traditional smaller centre. Again, CB Richard Ellis suggest that ‘half the population now shop for main groceries in less than 1,000 of the country’s 10,000+ main grocery stores: the majority located out-of-town’5.

Trends in key retail sectors Clothing & Footwear

3.9 Clothing and footwear is the second largest area of town centre retail spending in the UK after food and grocery. The sector remains relatively strong, despite a number of high profile administrations (including most recently the youth fashion chain Republic, in February 2013). However, recent research has indicated that price remains the second highest loyalty driver in the sector (behind range of goods6), suggesting that the pressures on disposable income remain pertinent to the sector.

3.10 Clothing & footwear retailers have benefited from a raft of new shopping centre space and town centre rejuvenation over the last few years. At the same time, as they are seeking to expand and complement their town centre portfolios, town centres do remain the biggest sales channel for the sector. Some clothing retailers continue to open new trading floorspace despite the economic downturn, or upgrade existing retail floorspace, particularly in sub- regional or regional-scale shopping destinations. However others such as Arcadia Group (which owns Burton, Dorothy Perkins, Evans and Top Shop) are seeking to reduce presence in centres as leases expire. Lower-middle market clothing retailers such as New Look and H&M continue to trade successfully.

3.11 Forecasts for the sector over the study period indicate that growth will continue, but it is likely to be directed towards ‘value retailers’ and ‘premium players’, rather than the middle market. In 2000, 28 per cent of consumers shopped in ‘value’ retailers. By 2010, this had increased to 57 per cent. However, ‘premium players’ look set to play an increasingly important role in the sector – since the onset of the recession, the number of shoppers regularly buying at premium

4 Source: CB Richard Ellis, UK Retail Briefing, September 2008. 5 Source: CB Richard Ellis, UK Retail Briefing, Issue 2, 2007. 6 Verdict Research ‘How Britain Shops: Clothing’, 2011

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stores such as Crew Clothing and White Stuff has increased by 6.2 per cent (equivalent to an extra 3.2 million adults)7.

DIY Goods

3.12 The poor performance of the DIY sector in recent years has been well-documented and is set to continue in the short-term. New store openings by DIY store operators are relatively limited. The Focus DIY chain, which has almost 200 stores across the UK — including a store in Coalville — entered administration in May 2011, reflecting the on-going difficulties in this sector.

Department Stores

3.13 There has been a lot of new shopping centre space available for department stores during the last few years. This new space, coupled with the big players revamping existing stores, has led to department stores increasing their share of town centre sales from 7.4% in 2002 to 7.8% in 2007. Expansion plans of many department stores were subsequently put on hold on account of the recession, but are beginning to come back on stream — for example Debenhams recently announced plans to open 17 new stores across the UK by 2017.

3.14 Driven by market saturation for full line department stores in many areas, major department store operators are now willing to take on smaller format stores. For example, John Lewis are opening smaller-format department stores (such as a recently-opened store in Exeter), and are also trialling a number of ‘John Lewis At Home’ stores, which typically operate from retail park locations, and focus solely on the home furnishings element of a full-line John Lewis department store. Primark also continues to perform strongly; the company has opened 19 new stores in the current financial year, including a second flagship store on Oxford Street in London.

Electricals

3.15 Major electrical specialists such as Currys have been withdrawing from town centres as they concentrate on Internet operations and relocating out-of-town, where they can be accommodated in larger-format stores. Town centre electrical stores are now smaller, and often have a greater focus on home entertainment goods, such as cameras, personal computers and audio and video equipment; and personal music players. DSGi, the owners of Currys and PC World, have in some cases sought to combine the retail offer of two standalone stores into one unit (as has taken place in the store’s branches in Loughborough and Fosse Park for example). The company has also undertaken a rebranding and modernisation of many of their stores.

3.16 This shift to out-of-centre locations, together with the reduction in electrical store numbers and the increase of electrical items sales online, has resulted in the amount of space occupied by them in town centres falling by 3.9 per cent over the five years to 2009. At the same time, sales densities (that is, the turnover which an operator can achieve in terms of sales per

7 Barclays Corporate (with Verdict Consulting), ‘Current and Future Opportunities for the UK Clothing Industry’, 2011

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square metre of floorspace) have increased due to the arrival in town centres of higher density retailers, who operate from smaller stores and sell higher value products.

3.17 However, as with the DIY sector, the electricals sector has been heavily impacted by the economic downturn. The leading American electrical goods retailer BestBuy opened a number of stores across the UK in the midst of the downturn, including stores in Derby and Nottingham, however in November 2011 it was confirmed that all stores would cease operations following poor trading performance. In November 2012, the Comet chain entered administration, and its stores have subsequently ceased trading. In January 2013 the camera goods specialist Jessops also entered administration, closing all of its stores with immediate effect.

Convenience Sector

3.18 Large foodstores (those with a net selling space of at least 25,000 sq.ft / 2,300 sq. m) have been the primary driver of growth in the convenience sector. Growth in floorspace of large foodstores has continued throughout the economic downturn, with typically a 3-4 per cent increase in floorspace per year. Floorspace in smaller stores (supermarkets, Co-Ops and convenience stores less than 25,000 sq.ft net) has shown marginal decline, whilst the floorspace in food specialists (such as butchers, bakers and greengrocers) has reduced by between 2 and 3 per cent per year. A summary of these trends is provided in Table 3.1. Publications by the New Economics Foundation have highlighted the decline in small, specialist retailers, identifying that between 1994 and 2002, the number of independent businesses selling food, tobacco and beverages fell by almost 30,000.

Table 3.1 — Convenience floorspace in the UK by retailer type, 2000-2010 Sector Superstores Smaller stores Food specialists

Total floorspace, 2000 45,760,000 57,924,000 22,166,000 (sq.ft net)

Total floorspace, 2005 54,608,000 57,010,000 18,267,000 (sq.ft net)

Total floorspace, 2010 65,528,000 54,358,000 16,526,000 (sq.ft net)

Source: Verdict Research UK Food & Grocery Retailers 2010, page 59

3.19 The convenience sector appears to have been largely unaffected by the economic downturn, and indeed has often been the beneficiary of floorspace becoming available in town and city centres as a result of comparison goods retailers entering administration. For example, Iceland acquired 57 former Woolworths stores in early 2009, with Tesco also acquiring a number of stores to be converted into ‘Metro’/’Express’ format stores. However, Verdict Research considers that expenditure growth in the convenience sector is likely to slow down in the short term:

‘Growth in expenditure on food & grocery products has slowed significantly in 2010 and in the short term it is set to be subdued comparative to the sector’s recent performance. Competitive pressures in the sector are set to intensify

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which, coupled with emerging consumer trends towards online and convenience retailing, is forcing a strategic rethink for retailers. They will need to adjust strategies and propositions to ensure returns are maximised as new market dynamics emerge.’ (Verdict Research UK Food &Grocery Retailers 2010, page 2)

3.20 Asda acquired the Netto chain of supermarkets in 2010, and has converted all acquired Netto stores over to Asda branding (including the store in Coalville) during 2011 and 2012. The first of the new format ‘Asda Supermarket’ stores opened in Worksop in May 2011. At the higher end of the grocery market, Waitrose are currently embarking on a sustained programme of store openings outside its traditional southern heartland.

3.21 Operators are also continuing to open larger format stores – although typically not of the ‘hypermarket’ scale which was seen over the previous decade. Operators are also investing heavily in smaller ‘Express’ format stores in town and city centre locations. For example, in the year ending 2010/11, Tesco added 155 Express stores to its store portfolio, compared to 37 ‘Extra’/large format Tesco stores. Verdict expects the trend towards smaller, more flexible format to continue in the short term:

‘In responding to emerging consumer trends it is also imperative that grocers pursue balanced and flexible space expansion. While grocers continue to face hurdles and narrowing opportunities for new outlets in out-of-town locations, each of the Big Four has aggressive expansion plans in the pipeline, not least Tesco (2.4 million sq ft in 2010/11) and Sainsbury (2.5 million sq ft in the two years to March 2011). However, as the race for space intensifies, format flexibility will be essential. Indeed, we expect smaller formats will increasingly form the focus of expansion plans. Expansion plans will be focused on convenience stores to capitalise on emerging consumer shopping habits. Moreover, compared to larger stores, convenience stores have less stringent planning laws.’ (Verdict Research UK Food &Grocery Retailers 2010, page 3)

3.22 The major foodstore operators are increasingly seeking to diversify into non–food markets. Furthermore, out-of-centre space is cheaper than comparable space in town centres, making it easier for out-of-centre superstores to compete on price, while adjacent parking makes them much more convenient for bulkier household goods. The expansion of foodstore operators’ non-food offers via their out-of-centre superstores – thereby providing a convenient one-stop shop for most food and non-food needs - represents a significant threat to high street retailers. Both Tesco and Asda, in addition to their supermarkets, operate a number of standalone non- food stores (‘Tesco Home Plus’ and ‘Asda Living’ respectively) which tend to occupy space at purpose-built out-of-town retail parks.

Internet retail

3.23 UK internet retail sales have increased at a rapid pace in recent years. The increase in internet retail is due to lower prices than those in stores and shoppers are able to search out bargains including second-hand goods. At the same time, the internet is becoming more complex and competitive, and retailers must adapt to this retailing climate. The growth of Marketplace websites is changing the dynamics of the market and further intensifying

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competition. While unfavourable economic conditions are forcing retailers to scale back on physical retail space, their online operations allow them to reach a much wider customer base.

3.24 There has also been recent growth in the ‘Click & Collect’ method of online shopping — whereby a customer orders and pays for the desired product online, and then collects it from the nearest large branch of the retailer. This approach is currently being rolled out by retailers including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Next, House of Fraser and John Lewis, amongst others.

3.25 The growing number of high street clothing and footwear retailers, who have established an online presence, are likely to continue to benefit from broadening their offers to rival both the depth and breadth of those in store. There is evidence to suggest that the online clothing sector remains buoyant despite the economic downturn; online clothing sales grew 40.5 per cent in the year to December 2010, although this level of growth was not matched in 2011.

3.26 In January 2012 the Interactive Media in Retail Group (IMRG) revealed that customers in the UK spent £68bn online during 2011, increased from £59bn in 2010 — a 16 per cent increase. The IMRG forecasts that the online sector will grow by a further 13 per cent during 2012 to £77bn. IMRG estimate that in total internet sales account 17 per cent of the UK retail market. The increase in mobile and tablet-based online shopping is understood to be fuelling the current increases in online spending.

3.27 In December 2011 alone, UK shoppers spent £7.9bn online, equivalent to £155 per person, 17 per cent higher than in December 2010. However growth rates for online shopping were lower than in the preceding year, which saw a 25 per cent year-on-year growth from 2009 to 2010.

3.28 Table 3.2 shows the year-on-year growth in key online sectors between December 2008 and December 2009, December 2009-December 2010, and December 2010-December 2011. It shows that whilst growth in some sectors appears to be levelling out, other sectors — particularly electricals and health & beauty — are continuing to post strong levels of online growth.

Table 3.2 — Growth in online spending in key sectors, 2008-2011 Sector Change in online Change in online Change in online spending, spending, December spending, December December 2008 to 2009 to December 2010 to December December 2009 2010 2011

Beers, wines and spirits +21% +36% +18%

Clothing, footwear and +18% +40% +12% accessories

Electricals +39% +8% +11%

Gifts +70% +22% +13%

Health and beauty +39% +19% +63%

Source: IMRG Press Releases, 22 January 2010, 21 January 2011 and 19 January 2012, via www.imrg.org.

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3.29 Current forecasts from Experian8 suggest that online shopping on convenience goods is likely to increase throughout the study period, but spending on comparison goods is likely to peak at a figure of 21.4 per cent in 2023 before levelling out thereafter. Experian’s recent forecasts for online shopping and other non-store sales — terms ‘special forms of trading’ (SFT) — indicate that SFT sales will claim a bigger proportion of overall spending than was previously considered likely.

3.30 In discussing their recent forecasts, Experian comment that:

‘Non-store retailing continues to grow rapidly, despite the tough retail environment. We retain our assumption that non-store retailing will increase at a faster pace than total retail sales well into the medium term. It is estimated that 85% of the UK adult population were internet users at the end of 2011, so growth of the internet user base will be less of a driver than in the past decade. But growth momentum will be sustained as new technology such as browsing and purchasing through mobile phones and the development of interactive TV shopping boost internet retailing. We now expect that the SFT market share will continue to increase over the forecast period, although the pace of e-commerce growth will moderate markedly after about 2020’

3.31 The outputs of this study specifically take into account this anticipated growth of online shopping, and, based on Experian guidance, we remove the proportion of total expenditure which is expected to be diverted towards online shopping before presenting the final quantitative floorspace requirements for the District.

3.32 Figure 1 shows the growth in online spending on convenience and comparison goods throughout the course of the study period, based on forecasts provided by Experian. Experian advise however that:

‘The calculation of how demand for retail floorspace will be affected by the rapid expansion of SFT remains a key issue. While it is undeniable that the challenge to traditional store-based shopping is growing, two factors temper the threat. . Since the non-store retailing figures include supermarkets and other retailers that source internet goods sales from store space, the share of non-store retailing is over-stated from the point of view of those interested in physical retail outlets, particularly for convenience goods. . Even if non-store retailing outpaces store-based shopping as assumed over the next few years, store-based shopping is still expected to continue to expand at an annual average of over 2% per annum in per capita terms from 2014 to 2028 (see figure 1a of the main report the relevant extract of which appears below).’ (Experian emphasis in bold).

3.33 Reflecting the first bullet point in the above paragraph, Experian also present ‘adjusted’ comparison and convenience goods forecasts, which remove internet goods sourced from physical store space. This is also shown in Figure 1 below. We use the adjusted convenience

8 The most recent forecasts from Experian are set out in Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 10.1, September 2012. We have used this document as the reference point for all Experian forecasts mentioned in this study.

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goods rates as the basis of our quantitative capacity assessment for the amount of comparison and convenience goods floorspace which is expected to be required in the District.

3.34 However, based on these uncertainties, we recommend that updated forecasts of internet spending should be taken into account in any update to the findings of this report which the Council undertakes over the Core Strategy period.

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Figure 1 — forecast of non-store retailing (Special Forms of Trading) market share to 2026

Source: Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 10.1, September 2012, Appendix 3. Adjusted SFT includes internet, mail order and markets.

Local area context

3.35 As we have identified above, since the previous RCS was published for the District in 2007, there have been a number of important changes, both to national policy and in wider retail trends. There have also been a number of changes to retail provision within and surrounding North West Leicestershire District, which have potential to influence shopping patterns of residents in the District. We review these below in Table 3.3. Of particular note is the extant planning permission for the redevelopment and expansion of the Belvoir Shopping Centre in Coalville town centre, which was granted planning permission in 2010.

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Table 3.3 — Summary of recent and planned developments within and surrounding North West Leicestershire District (correct as of March 2013)

Development Location Type of Notes (within/ floorspace outside district)

Completed developments

Retail warehouses, Within Comparison Small retail park development comprising a 2,300 Ashby sq.m Wickes store and a 700 sq.m Pets at Home store. The development commenced trading in 2009.

Tesco extension, Within Comparison/ Extension to the existing Tesco store at Resolution Ashby convenience Road, Ashby to provide 1,600 sq.m net additional comparison goods floorspace and 1,160 sq.m net additional convenience goods floorspace. We understand this permission has been implemented and completed.

Asda, Ashby Road, Within Convenience Asda acquired the Netto foodstore at Ashby Road, Coalville Coalville, as part of the company’s acquisition of the Netto brand and estate across the UK. Netto in turn had previously acquired the site from Somerfield/Kwik Save. Asda have refurbished the store which now trades as an ‘Asda Supermarket’ but is significantly smaller than the company’s stores surrounding the District in Derby, Long Eaton and Leicester.

Lidl, Thornborough Within Convenience New discount supermarket, which trades from a Road, Coalville site opposite the town’s existing Aldi store, with a sales area of 1,286 sq.m net (application ref 06/00136/FUL)

Highcross Outside Comparison Extension/redevelopment of The Shires, a major development, comparison goods shopping destination in Leicester Leicester city centre. Has introduced a number of new flagship stores, including John Lewis, Apple and Zara, plus an enhanced restaurant offer and a Cinema de Lux. Commenced trading in 2008.

Westfield, Derby Outside Comparison Extension/redevelopment of the Eagle Centre, Derby’s principal indoor shopping centre. Opened in 2007, securing a number of new retailers to the town, plus larger branches of stores such as Marks & Spencer and Debenhams. Also includes a restaurant and leisure offer including a Cinema de Lux.

The Rushes, Outside Comparison/ Whilst trading at the time of the previous RCS, the Loughborough convenience Centre is now fully let and includes large branches of Argos, TK Maxx and Next. Tesco have recently

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taken over the former Big W store; this store is now trading.

Pipeworks, Outside Comparison/ Redevelopment of a former industrial facility in Swadlincote convenience Swadlincote town centre to form a retail and leisure destination, including 70,000 sq.ft open A1 use retail warehousing, an Odeon cinema, and 12,000 sq.ft of restaurant/A3 uses. The development opened in August 2011 and includes lettings to Argos, Home Bargains, Iceland and Aldi. A new Morrisons store on an adjacent site opened in 2006.

Asda, Shepshed Outside Convenience A new Asda supermarket of 1,631 sq.m net opened in Shepshed in August 2012.

Permitted developments (within District only)

Redevelopment/ Within Comparison/ Major redevelopment and expansion of the Belvoir extension of convenience Shopping Centre in Coalville town centre, to Belvoir Shopping include a 6,000 sq.m gross retail foodstore, Centre, Coalville comparison goods floorspace, a hotel, cinema, A3 uses and new car parking facilities. The total floorspace (for all uses) amounts to 43,575 sq.m gross. The scheme secured planning permission in April 2010, but is yet to be implemented; the permission expires in April 2013.

Tesco, Hotel Within Convenience/ Redevelopment of garage site plus adjacent retail Street, Coalville comparison units to form a 5,917 sq.m gross foodstore with residential units above. Planning permission was granted in January 2011 and expires in January 2016. It is understood that Tesco have subsequently withdrawn from redeveloping the site and its long term future is unknown.

Aldi, Ashby Within Convenience Discount foodstore of 900 sq.m on a site at Dents Road/Nottingham Road which was permitted at appeal. Discharge of conditions is currently underway.

Undetermined applications (within District only)

Discount foodstore, Within Convenience Planning application for a second discount Ashby foodstore at Dents Road, Ashby, remains undetermined at the time of preparation of this study.

3.36 The study takes into account convenience and comparison goods extant planning permissions which fall within the study area used as the basis of this assessment. A full schedule of these permissions, and their likely turnover, is set out in Section 7. However at the request of the Council we also set out an alternative floorspace scenario, to examine the capacity which arises for the District if the major redevelopment schemes in the District (i.e. the Belvoir Centre and Tesco schemes) do not proceed.

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3.37 The changes set out in Table 3.3 affirm that the Council should regularly refresh its retail evidence base over the course of the Core Strategy period to ensure that an up-to-date assessment of shopping patterns and requirement for additional floorspace is available.

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4 PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT OF CENTRES IN NORTH WEST LEICESTERSHIRE DISTRICT

4.1 In this section we review the current performance of the main town and village centres in North West Leicestershire District. Reflecting the requirements of the study brief, we have undertaken performance assessments of the town centre of Coalville plus the ‘rural centres’ (as defined by the emerging Core Strategy) of Ashby-de-la-Zouch, Castle Donington, Ibstock and Measham9. The performance assessments demonstrate how well each centre against a range of indicators, and informs conclusions as to their overall levels of ‘vitality and viability’.

4.2 The most recent guidance on how to assess town centre vitality and viability is set out in PPS4, with Annex D presenting indicators against which vitality and viability can be measured. There is no replacement guidance of this nature contained within the NPPF; on this basis it is considered appropriate to use the PPS4 indicators as the basis of our assessment of the five centres listed above. The following indicators form the basis of our assessment10:

. Indicator A1: Diversity of main town centres . Indicator A2: Retail floorspace in edge-of-centre or out-of-centre locations . Indicator A3: Potential for capacity for growth or change of centres in the network . Indicator A4: Retailer representation and intentions to change representation . Indicator A5: Shopping rents . Indicator A6: Proportion of vacant street level property . Indicator A7: Commercial yields on non-domestic property . Indicator A9: Pedestrian flows (footfall) . Indicator A10: Accessibility . Indicator A11: Customers and residents’ views and behaviour . Indicator A12: Perception of safety and occurrence of crime . Indicator A13: State of the town centre environmental quality.

4.3 In undertaking our assessment we draw on a variety of sources of information, including Experian Goad floorspace data, the FOCUS Commercial Property Database, the results of the household survey undertaken as part of this study, and our own visits to each centre throughout October 2012, which allowed for an up-to-date understanding of retailer occupancy, vacancy levels, and the environmental quality of the centres to be established. The findings below should be read in conjunction with the performance analysis tables set out at Appendix 1 to the study.

9 The emerging Core Strategy also defines Kegworth as a ‘rural centre’. However this centre was not included in the 2005 RCS as it was not considered a large enough centre retail centre to warrant inclusion. In order to be consistent with the previous study, the Council have requested it is not included in this Update. 10 It is not possible to provide commentary on PPS4 Indicator A8 (‘Land values and length of time key sites have remained undeveloped’) as this information is not readily available within the public domain. There is also limited data availability for Indicators A5 and A7 for any centre aside from Coalville.

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Assessment of vitality and viability of Coalville town centre PPS4 Indicator Comments

Diversity of main . As the highest order centre in North West Leicestershire, town centres (A1) Coalville should support the convenience, comparison and services shopping needs of a wide area. The town centre has 192 units currently in retail use. The retail offer is focussed around the Belvoir Shopping Centre, a pedestrianized shopping parade. . Coalville town centre currently has a total of 14 convenience outlets. When compared to Goad national average data, this equates to a slightly below average proportion of convenience units (7.29 per cent of floorspace, compared to a UK average of 8.51 per cent in April 2012). There is representation from each of the six Experian convenience goods sub-categories in the town centre, suggesting a good mixture of convenience goods uses. . Despite the large number of comparison good retail units in the town centre (72), representation is also slightly below the April 2012 UK average, at 37.5 per cent compared to a national average of 41.13 per cent. There is representation from all 16 comparison goods sub-categories in the centre, and the majority of sub-categories reflect UK average representation by plus or minus 1 per cent. Three of the four clothing sub- categories have below average representation, however. . Service sector representation is marginally above UK averages, at 36.98 per cent rather compared to 35.52 per cent. There is particularly strong representation from the ‘hairdressers, beauty parlours & health centres’ category (4 per cent above UK average), but poor representation from the ‘restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food & takeaways’ category (4 per cent below average). Our visits to the centre confirmed that the number of restaurants and cafes/coffee bars in the centre is particularly limited. . Levels of vacant units in the town centre are high, at 16.67 per cent compared to the national average compared to 13.72 per cent. This is discussed further below. . The quantity of convenience goods floorspace has remained fairly unchanged since the previous survey in 2005, whilst comparison goods floorspace has fallen by 270 sqm, service uses have increased by 380 sqm as has vacant floorspace in the town centre with an additional 580 sqm.

Retail floorspace in . The edge/out-of-centre retail offer in Coalville is largely edge or out-of-centre

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locations (A2) unchanged from at the time of the previous RCS in 2005 and Update Study in 2007. . We are not aware of any significant concentrations of edge-of- centre floorspace in Coalville. To the north of the town centre (approximately 10 minutes’ walk from the centre) is an out-of- centre Morrison’s store, which acts as the main food shopping destination for residents in Coalville. The Morrisons store extends to an area of 3,468 sq.m net and is the largest foodstore in Coalville by some margin. . Adjacent to Morrisons is a small retail park which includes units occupied by Instore, Ponden Home, Littlewoods Clearance and Jolleyes Pet Stores. The former Focus DIY unit at this development has recently been replaced by a B&M Homestore.

Potential for capacity . There is clear scope for Coalville town centre to accommodate for growth or change further retail floorspace. This has been evidenced by the of centre (A3) adopted masterplan for the town centre, as well as planning applications for the redevelopment and extension of the Belvoir Shopping Centre. . Whilst the application for the extension of the Belvoir Shopping Centre secured planning permission, it has not yet been implemented. Nevertheless it is considered that the area of car parking east of the existing shopping centre remains the site with the strongest potential for expanding the centre to meet any future comparison or convenience goods capacity requirements. . The site on Hotel Street which is the subject of a planning permission for a new retail foodstore also represents a reasonable opportunity for expansion but has somewhat weaker connectivity to the prime shopping area in the town centre. . Scope for expansion of the town centre to the west (along Ashby Road) and south (along Belvoir Road) is considered more limited owing to the built up nature of these areas and a lack of potential redevelopment sites.

Retailer Current representation representation and intentions to change . Coalville town centre contains a mixture of national multiples representation (A4) and independent retailers. The primary shopping area (considered to be the Belvoir Shopping Centre and adjacent streets) is mostly comprised of multiple retailers, with independent retailers more strongly represented in secondary areas of the centre. . There are three supermarkets within Coalville town centre,

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Asda on Ashby Road, Co-op on Bridge Street and Iceland, also on Bridge Street. Co-op and Iceland are serviced by a large car park, which was only partially occupied at the time of the site visits. . The town centre has a reasonable mix of comparison multiples, although the retail offer in the centre overall is orientated towards the discount end of the retail spectrum, particularly in respect of the clothing and fashion goods sector. The two main anchor stores to the Belvoir Centre are Wilkinson’s and Home Bargains — both discount retailers. . Multiple representation in the clothing sector is restricted to value operators such as Bon Marche and Store Twenty One, and lower-middle operators such as Dorothy Perkins and New Look, and the centre lacks middle/higher-order representation that appeal to a broad range of shoppers (such as Next and River Island). . The retail offer in the centre overall is therefore orientated towards the discount end of the retail spectrum, particularly in respect of the clothing and fashion goods sector. The two main anchor stores to the Belvoir Centre are Wilkinson’s and Home Bargains — both discount retailers. . However there are a range of other comparison goods retailers trading in the centre such as Boots, Superdrug, Dunelm Mill, H Samuel and Argos, which make for a reasonable level of retail diversity and enable most day-to-day shopping needs to be met. . Since the previous health check was undertaken there have been a number of new independent retailers, including Springfields Survival and Camping Shop and Coalville Kitchen and Bathrooms. . There is a good range of services retailers in the town centre, with most national bank/building society operators present, plus a selection of estate agents and travel agents. There is little national retailer representation in terms of restaurants or coffee shop operators, although the recent opening of a Costa store in the Belvoir Centre is a positive addition. Intentions to change representation

. The FOCUS Commercial Property Database showed two retailer requirements for Coalville in November 2012 — discount frozen food retailer CoolTrader, and a fitness chain. . The number of retailer requirements has declined since the 2005 RCS, where four operator requirements were identified. . This reduction in requirements is likely to be a combination of

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supressed demand for retailer representation in many smaller town centres as a result of the economic downturn, and also a shortage of suitable modern premises for retailers to occupy within Coalville town centre. . A wider search of retail requirements for Leicestershire showed nine retailer requirements, from retailers including Betfred, Paper Kisses, Heron Frozen Foods and George’s Tradition. Although their requirements are not specific for Coalville, should suitable premises be available in the town, it would be expected that these operators would consider representation.

Shopping rents (A5) . No recent data for prime retail rents in Coalville is available. The most recent rental values listed in the FOCUS Commercial Property database (from 2008) identify a prime retail rent of between £45 and £50 per sq.ft in Coalville, which is considered a reasonable reflection of the role and function, and overall vitality and viability of the town.

Proportion of vacant . The 2005 RCS recorded 18 vacant units in Coalville town street level property centre in (based on an Experian Goad centre survey from (A6)11 October 2004), equating to 9.7 per cent of the town centre’s total units, close to the UK national average of the time. Vacant units were described as being interspersed throughout the town centre, with no major concentrations of voids. . Our visits to Coalville town centre in October 2012 indicate that the vacancy rate has increased; presently there are 33 vacant units within the town centre12, equivalent to 16.67 per cent of all units within the centre. This is above the current UK average13 of 13.72 per cent: the UK average vacancy rate has increased as a result of the economic downturn. The high level of vacant units represents cause for concern, as the proportion of vacant units is now above the UK average, having previously been broadly in line. . There are a number of vacant units within the primary shopping area of the Belvoir Shopping Centre (although these are mostly in the more peripheral parts of the centre). There are also concentrations of vacant units at the northern end of Belvoir Road, with the large former Woolworths unit remaining vacant four years after the company entered administration, as well as the western end of the High Street. These areas are all within

12 Experian Goad definition of town centre boundary 13 UK average from April 2012

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the ‘Core Town Centre Shopping Area’ as defined on the Council’s Local Plan Proposals Map (2002), and therefore the reduction of vacant units in this area should be considered a priority. . In the peripheral parts of the town centre, there are a run of vacant properties from No.9 to No.31, on the northern side of Hotel Street. The units are vacant owing to acquisition of the properties by Tesco following the granting of planning permission for a new foodstore at this location, which we understand is now unlikely to come forward. The presence of this concentration of vacant units serves to inflate the overall vacancy rate of the centre. . The majority of vacant units are relatively small in size; however there are a small number of larger-sized vacant units in the centre, headed by the aforementioned Woolworths unit (1,350 sq.m gross).

Commercial yields . No recent data is available in respect of this indicator for (A7) Coalville.

Pedestrian footfall . As with any centre, pedestrian footfall fluctuates throughout the (A9) town centre, owing to factors such as the location of anchor stores, the type of shopping environment, and the location of public transport facilities and car parks. . Pedestrian footfall was observed to be greatest around the Belvoir Shopping Centre at the time of our visit (although this was not particularly observed to be particularly high), as well as along Belvoir Road, between Marlborough Square and the Shopping Centre. Flows elsewhere in the centre were considerably more subdued, and Hotel Street in particular was observed to be quiet. . The location of the town’s main foodstores on the periphery of the centre — Asda on Ashby Road and Co-Operative/Iceland on Bridge Road — ensures that they do not draw much pedestrian footfall from across the town centre, nor do they particularly act as ‘anchor’ stores.

Accessibility (A10) . Strong accessibility to a centre by a choice means of transport is important in attracting residents and visitors to a centre. Whilst the Belvoir Shopping Centre itself is pedestrianised, the surrounding streets suffer from high levels of traffic. . There is a good network of car parks throughout the town. Short-stay car parks include Market Hall, Margaret Street and Needhams Walk. Long-stay car parks are located at Bridge Road, Belvoir Shopping Centre, James Street and London

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Road. Parking charges are relatively cheap, costing between 50p for up to 1 hour to £2 for over 3 hours. On-street parking is limited mainly to disabled parking bays. . At the time of our visits to the centre, banners were visible around Coalville advertising the introduction of refunds on parking fees from the 1 October 2012, to encourage shoppers into the town. . Coalville does not benefit from connection to the national rail network, however there are strong bus connections across the Coalville / Ellistown / Ibstock areas, as well as further afield to Ashby, Loughborough, Leicester and Burton-on-Trent and local villages. Arriva operate the majority of local services. There are also bus connections to East Midlands Airport via Castle Donington. . The bus interchange at Memorial Square is located within Coalville town centre there are a number of bus stops positioned along Belvoir Road/Mantle Lane and High Street/Ashby Road.

Customers and . The household telephone survey undertaken to support the residents’ views and forecasts of retail capacity set out in this report (discussed behaviour (A11) further in Section 5) also invited responses from residents of the District as to whether they visited the principal centres in the District regularly, and what, if anything, could be improved about each of the main centres. . The full survey results for Coalville are shown at Question 31/31A of the household survey results, reproduced in full as Appendix 3 to this study. . Just over two-thirds of residents of the District (68.5 per cent) visit Coalville town centre for shopping and other services, with a similar amount also visiting Ashby regularly. . When asked if there is anything which could be improved about the town centre, it is clear from analysis of the survey results that there is a strong desire from users of the centre to see its retail offer improved. Of those who visit the centre regularly, 38 per cent expressed a desire for a greater choice of shops, with 17 per cent identifying a particular need for more clothing and fashion shops — as identified above a key shortfall in the current retail offer of Coalville is the lack of middle-market fashion retailers which help to draw footfall in a centre. 2 per cent of respondents also identified the need for more children’s clothes shops. . Also in respect of improvements to the retail offer, 6 per cent of respondents identified the need for better quality shops in

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general, and 7 per cent of respondents considered the centre would benefit from either larger stores or a department store. 5 per cent of respondents considered that the food retail offer in the town centre would benefit from improvement. . 11 per cent of respondents identified that the town centre could be best improved by reducing the number of vacant retail premises in the centre. . Respondents identified a number of retailers which they wished to see trading in the town centre, including Next, Primark and Marks & Spencer. . Aside from retail matters, many respondents felt that matters associated with car parking would improve the centre: for example 8 per cent of respondents considered that free parking would benefit the centre (with a further 2 per cent stating reduced parking costs would be beneficial). 4 per cent of respondents considered that current levels of parking provision were inadequate. In addition, 5 per cent of respondents considered that a better leisure offer (for example the provision of a cinema or theatre) would enhance the centre. . 14 per cent of respondents — the third highest response — considered that Coalville town centre would be improved through the provision of a nicer shopping environment; this matter is discussed further below. Conversely, 11 per cent of respondents considered that no improvements to the town centre were required.

Perception of . During the time of our visit no significant issues in terms of this safety/crime (A12) indicator were noted. In daylight the centre feels safe, and no major instances of anti-social behaviour were observed. The town centre has CCTV cameras, and main streets appear to be adequately lit. . Many of the shops were noted to have external security shutters, which can lend the centre a more unwelcoming feel outside of trading hours. . The 2005 RCS said that the main car park behind the Belvoir Shopping Centre may not be attractive to night-time users given the relative lack of lighting and the unattractive pedestrian routes from the car park to Belvoir Road and High Street. This situation has not changed.

Environmental . Coalville continues to have a reasonable town centre quality (A13) environmental quality, although it is evident that there has been only limited investment in the centre subsequent to our previous retail studies. The pedestrianized areas of the town centre, whilst being open and easily navigable, are somewhat

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stark and would benefit from landscape ‘softening’. . There is some investment in public realm in the centre, for example the provision of new street furniture in the Shopping Centre, and bins throughout the centre. . Many of the units across the town centre are small and outdated, and there is a clear need for the provision of more modern floorspace in the town centre. In some parts of the centre, particularly Hotel Street and High Street, shopfronts and units are of particularly poor quality. . The parade of vacant units on Hotel Street acquired as part of the Tesco planning application are a particular detraction from the environmental quality of the centre, and it is recommended that temporary remedial work is undertaken to improve this whilst the long term future of the site is established. . Overall the town centre appears for the most part relatively tired and dated, and in need of investment. Should the proposals for the redevelopment of the Belvoir Shopping Centre come to fruition, this will be expected to have a significant positive impact in respect of this indicator.

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Photo 1 — The Belvoir Shopping Centre is the main shopping destination in Coalville town centre; it benefits from a good level of occupancy but is anchored by value/discount stores.

Photo 2 — Asda have recently acquired and refurbished the former Netto store on Ashby Road, providing an enhancement to the convenience retail offer in the town centre

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Summary of vitality and viability of Coalville town centre

4.4 Our updated assessment of the vitality and viability of Coalville identifies a number of areas of concern. Whilst the town centre continues to meet day-to-day convenience and comparison goods shopping functions, plus the service needs of local residents, adequately, the overall picture is one of a centre ‘getting by’, and struggling for vitality and viability in a number of areas.

4.5 The proportion of units given over to convenience and comparison goods uses are both slightly below average. The centre benefits from a number of small foodstores at the western and eastern peripheries of the centre, although these are likely to cater for basket/top up shopping to a greater extent than main food shopping. A larger foodstore in the town centre would be likely to draw additional trade into the town centre. Comparison goods uses show reasonable diversity, but the quality of the retail offer is generally poor, and there are a number of qualitative gaps in the retail offer. The clothing and fashion goods offer of the centre is particularly weak, in part reflecting the increasing tendency for middle and higher-order retailers to focus stores in larger urban centres. The proportion of services units is slightly above UK average, possibly reflecting an increasing trend towards Coalville performing this type of function to a greater extent than being a comparison shopping destination.

4.6 The high number of vacant units in the centre — whilst skewed relative to the 2005 RCS position on account of the acquisition of units on Hotel Street for a postponed or aborted foodstore development — is clearly of cause for concern. The increased vacancy rates is in part a reflection of trends seen across the country as a result of the economic downturn, and smaller town centres such as Coalville have been particularly affected by a number of retailers entering administration. A priority for the Council should be to reduce the number of vacant units in the centre, through measures such as supporting ‘pop up’/temporary leasing of units where appropriate. This will serve to enhance the retail diversity of the centre and encourage footfall.

4.7 Further measures to improve the environmental quality of the centre would also be beneficial. The redevelopment / refurbishment of the Belvoir Shopping Centre is likely to be an important catalyst in this respect. If it appears that extension of the shopping centre will be unlikely, proposals for the upgrading and renewal of existing facilities in the centre should be supported.

Assessment of vitality and viability of Ashby-de-la-Zouch town centre

PPS4 Indicator Comments

Diversity of main . Ashby has a good level of diversity of uses, which enable town centres (A1) people’s day to day shopping needs to be met. There are a total of 159 retail units in the town centre. . When compared to Experian Goad national average data, Ashby de la Zouch’s town centre has slightly below average convenience floorspace (7.55 per cent of floorspace, compared to a UK average of 8.51 per cent in April 2012). There is strong representation in a number of convenience goods sectors, including bakeries, greengrocers and grocery stores. There is no off licence in the centre.

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. Comparison goods representation is significantly higher than the UK average (at 47.17 per cent compared to a national average of 41.13 per cent) making up nearly half of the retail offer within the town centre. Of the 16 comparison goods sub- categories, 15 are present in the town centre, the only absentee being ‘variety, department stores and catalogue showrooms’, where a gap in the market brought about by the closure of the town’s Woolworths store has not been replaced. Most sub-sectors have representation in line with UK averages, however it is noteworthy that representation in the ‘women’s, girls and children’s clothing’ category (which accounts for 14 units in the centre) is almost 5 per cent above UK average. As this sector is typically a strong driver of footfall, it is a positive reflection on the vitality and viability of Ashby town centre. . As with Coalville, service sector representation was found to be marginally above UK averages, at 37.74 per cent compared to 35.52 per cent. Again, representation is above UK average for the ‘hairdressers, beauty parlours and health centres’ but there is below average representation in the restaurants, cafes and take-aways category. There are no gaps in the service retail offer. . Levels of vacant units within Ashby’s town centre are less than half of the level nationally, at 6.29 per cent, compared to 13.72 per cent. Again, this is a positive reflection on the vitality and viability of the centre.

Retail floorspace in . Ashby has relatively limited out-of-centre retail floorspace, edge or out-of-centre restricted to a large Tesco store on the eastern edge of the locations (A2) town. Planning permission has recently been granted — and subsequently implemented — for an extension to this store. There has also been a small retail warehouse development on at nearby Dents Road, which includes branches of Wickes and Pets at Home. There is also planning permission for a discount foodstore at this location. . We are not aware of any significant amounts of floorspace in edge-of-centre locations.

Potential for capacity . The relatively compact, linear nature of the town centre affords for growth or change little opportunity for significant outward expansion. We would of centre (A3) expect that over the course of the Council’s Core Strategy period, the focus will be on consolidation and improvement of the existing retail offer, rather than major expansion.

Retailer Current retailer representation representation and intentions to change . Ashby town centre contains a mixture of both national and independent retailers, although the independent retail provision

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representation (A4) generally appears greater in Ashby, particularly in respect of representation in the primary shopping area. . There are two supermarkets in Ashby town centre, a large Co- op store (acquired from Somerfield) on Derby Road, and a smaller Midlands Co-op unit on Market Street. The Co-op store on Derby Road has a significant amount of car parking to its rear, and was very busy at the time of the site visit (mid- morning). There is a wide range of specialist convenience retailers, including independent health food shops, delicatessens and butchers. . As was found in the 2005 RCS, the majority of multiple comparison retailers present in the town centre are within the middle and lower parts of the retail spectrum such as Peacocks and New Look. However these are offset by a number of specialist independent jewellery shops and clothing boutiques which serve to improve consumer choice. . At the junction of Market Street and Bath Street there is a particular cluster of high-end, independent retailers including a delicatessen, mens clothing shop and giftwares shop. . A number of passageways lead off from Market Street into mews/courtyards, which provide a contrasting retail offer, with smaller more closed environments with a number of smaller retail units and speciality shops. This benefits the environmental quality of the centre as well as the retail offer. . There is representation from a number of established ‘high street’ retailers in the town including branches of WHSmith, Boots, Superdrug and Specsavers, which are typical of the role and function of the town, as well as a good range of services retailers, including a Costa store in the former Woolworths unit, and a branch of national restaurant chain ASK as part of a new development at Derby Road. . Overall we consider that Ashby has a good range of retailer representation, with the strong representation from the independent retail sector a particular asset to the town. Intentions to change representation . The FOCUS Commercial Property Database showed 6 retailer requirements for Ashby de la Zouch in November 2012. Retailers with active requirements for Ashby include Caffe Nero, Holland & Barrett (health foods), Card Factory and CoolTrader (frozen foods). . The number of retailer requirements has declined since October 2004 (quoted in our 2005 RCS) where 15 requirements for representation were identified through

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FOCUS. This reduction in requirements mirrors trends elsewhere in the country as a result of the economic downturn, and therefore current levels can be considered reasonable. If suitable premises were to come forward in well-placed locations in the town centre, we would expect demand to be good.

Shopping rents (A5) . No recent data is available in respect of this indicator.

Proportion of vacant . At the time of our visit to Ashby in October 2012 a total of ten street level property vacant units were observed, equivalent to 6.29 per cent of the (A6) total retail offer. The vacancy rate is unchanged from our previous assessment of the town centre as part of the 2005 RCS. At both times, the vacancy rate is considerably below the UK average, which suggests the town centre has benefited from consistent levels of vitality and viability. . A number of vacant units were identified at the western end of Market Street, around the junction with Bath Street. However, these units do not appear to have been vacant for a long time. We understand that the Dorothy Perkins store in the town has recently ceased trading, which is likely to be related to the parent company’s group to focus on larger towns and city centre stores, as discussed in the previous section.

Commercial yields . No data is available for this indicator for Ashby. (A7)

Pedestrian footfall . The centre benefits from generally strong pedestrian levels, (A9) particularly at the western end of Market Street, partly related to the anchor role of the Co-Op supermarket on Derby Road. . Pedestrian footfall appears to drop off towards the eastern end, away from the anchor stores and car parks. The covered market unit on the south side of Market Street was particularly active and lively with shoppers, however.

Accessibility (A10) . Ashby’s town centre is easily accessible via road with the A42 link road passing to not far east of the town centre. Market Street, which runs through the middle of the town centre, is congested with significant levels of traffic. Free on-street parking along both sides of Market Street is limited to a maximum 1 hour, although there are a number of charging car parks near to the centre. Short stay car parking is available near to the town centre at: Brook Street, Hood Park Leisure Centre, and at North Street. Long stay parking is available at South Street and North Street Extension. Car parking rates are set at the same level as for those in Coalville. All car parking appears to be well-used.

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. There are a number of bus stops in easily accessible locations within the town centre, along the axial routes along the B587 (Market Street/Kilwardly Street) and the B6006 (Derby Road/Bath Street/Station Road). There are frequent bus connections to Burton-on-Trent, Swadlincote and Coalville from the town centre, plus more infrequent connections to Nuneaton and Loughborough. There are also three Ashby ‘circular’ services which connect residential areas of the town, which each run on an hourly basis.

Customers and . Questions 30B/31B of the household telephone survey residents’ views and undertaken in support of this study established levels of behaviour (A11) patronage to Ashby town centre from residents in the District, and what, if anything could be improved in the centre. . 68 per cent of residents in the District visit Ashby town centre for shopping and other services, a figure which matches that of Coalville, despite Ashby town centre having a smaller and more limited role in the District’s retail hierarchy compared to Coalville. . Positively, 48 per cent of respondents to the household survey identified that no improvements were needed to Ashby town centre, suggesting a high level of visitor satisfaction with the centre. . Of those respondents who identified that improvements to the centre were needed, responses were split between the need for better shopping facilities and matters related to parking. . In respect of enhancements to the shopping offer, 10 per cent of respondents stated that a better choice of shops is needed, with 6 per cent identifying a particular need for more clothing and fashion shops. A number of respondents identified particular retailers which the town centre would benefit from accommodating, including Iceland, Next, Wilkinson and Marks & Spencer. 3 per cent of respondents considered that the centre would benefit from more independent retailers. . 3 per cent of respondents also considered that reducing the number of vacant premises in the town centre would improve the town centre. . In respect of parking, 9 per cent of respondents identified that more parking provision was needed, and 6 per cent considered that free parking would be beneficial. . Whilst it is apparent that some respondents identify areas of improvement for the town centre, it would appear that there are generally good levels of satisfaction with the current offer in Ashby town centre, which is a positive reflection on the overall

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vitality and viability of the centre.

Perception of . Ashby town centre benefits from CCTV coverage and lighting safety/crime (A12) along its central streets. The landscape of the town centre suffers from minimal vandalism. No particular issues were identified in respect of this indicator.

Environmental . The town centre has a welcoming and attractive feel, with a quality (A13) high quality streetscape, including some flower beds, good quality street paving, and limited graffiti. The main street through the centre of the town, Market Street, feels open and comfortable with wide pavements on both sides. . The building frontages are of a proportionate scale and appear well maintained, and the mews developments add an interesting and ‘quirky’ air to the centre. . Despite the pedestrian-friendly nature of much of the town centre, the presence of vehicle is strong with nearby traffic noise often notably audible, which does serve to detract from the environmental quality of the centre. This issue aside, the environmental quality of the centre is strong.

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Photo 3 — Market Street in Ashby-de-la-Zouch is the principal shopping street, and contains a mixture of national and independent retailers

Summary of vitality and viability of Ashby-de-la-Zouch town centre

4.8 We consider that Ashby town centre displays generally good levels of vitality and viability. The centre is well kept, has a good diversity of uses including a suitable sized foodstore, and a comparison goods offer which is a balanced mix of national multiples and specialist independent retailers. Although some of the national multiples present in the centre are towards the lower end of the spectrum, this is balanced by a number of higher-end independent retailers. The leisure offer – and in particular restaurants and café provision – would benefit from further enhancement but recent openings by ASK and Costa in the centre would suggest demand is reasonable, should suitable premises arise.

4.9 The vacancy rate in the town centre remains some way below the UK average, and there are few examples of long-term vacant units in the centre. The environmental quality of the centre is also strong, and whilst the through flow of traffic does compromise this, the easy accessibility of the town centre is likely to enhance its overall vitality and viability.

Assessment of vitality and viability of Castle Donington village centre

PPS4 Indicator Comments

Diversity of main . There are a total of 40 units given over to retail activity in town centres (A1) Castle Donington village centre, considerably lower than Coalville and Ashby. Accordingly, the retail diversity in the centre is correspondingly more limited. . There are two convenience retail outlets in Castle Donington

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village centre, which together represent 5.0% of total units. The main convenience shopping destination is the Co-op store on Borough Street. There is also a small delicatessen, also located on Borough Street. However there are gaps in the offer, including an absence of bakers and greengrocers, for example. . Castle Donington contains a reasonable level of comparison good units, at a level close to the national average, at 42.5%. Eight of the 16 comparison goods sub-sectors are present in the town, which is considered reasonable in the context of the role and function of the town. There is strong representation from furniture and gifts/home goods retailers in the centre, as well as chemists and opticians. Representation from the clothing sector is more limited, with a number of gaps in the offer. There are no charity shops in the village centre. . The service offer is substantial, making up 50% of retail units in the centre, greater than the current UK average of 35%. The 2005 RCS noted that there was a strong offer of in the sub- categories ‘restaurants, cafes, coffee bars, fast food and take– aways’ and ‘hairdressers, beauty parlours and health centres’. This remains the case, in particular for the ‘hairdressers, beauty parlour, health centre’ offer which consists of 22.5% of the total retail offer in the centre, 13.67% above the current UK average. . There is also a good range of restaurants, cafes and takeaways, but limited representation in other categories — for example there is just one bank (HSBC), and no travel agencies, laundrettes or dry cleaners. . At the time of our visit, there was just one vacant property, equivalent to 2.5% of the retail units in the centre. Despite there being a very low vacancy level, it was evident whilst undertaking the site visits that a number of retail units have been converted into dwellings (such as, Homes in Italy and Susan Jane Hairdressing, Clapgun Street).

Retail floorspace in . Castle Donington is served by an out-of-centre Midlands Co- edge or out-of-centre Operative supermarket on Station Road, approximately 10 locations (A2) minutes’ walk to the north of the village centre. The store extends to 1,147 sq.m net and is of a suitable size to meet some residents’ main and top-up shopping needs. The store also includes a branch of Co-Op Travel. . There are no major out-of-centre concentrations of comparison goods floorspace.

Potential for capacity . Castle Donington is a village centre and any new retail

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for growth or change floorspace which comes forward in the centre is likely to be of a of centre (A3) scale to solely meet day-to-day shopping needs. The emerging Core Strategy does not seek to alter this role and function of the centre, and therefore the potential for significant growth of retail floorspace is considered limited.

Retailer . The majority of the retail offer in Castle Donington consists of representation and independent retailers, reflecting the tendency for multiple intentions to change representation (A4) retailers to concentrate trading in higher-order centres. However Midlands Co-Operative and Manor Pharmacy are both represented in the centre. . There is a good range of medium end comparison retailers, with a focus on specialist, boutique retail and giftwares. Given the small size of the centre, the comparison goods retail provision can be considered quite strong. . All units are relatively small in size and there is not a single dominant comparison goods anchor store. There is also a good range of middle order service retailers, particular in the hair & beauty sector, as noted above.

Proportion of vacant . There is currently only one vacant unit within Castle Donington street level property centre located in a prime retail location area along Borough (A6) Street. The unit has not been vacant for a significant period of time and as such is not considered to be an indication of the wider decline of the centre. Similar to other local centres, a couple of units on the periphery of the centre, such as a former local travel agent on Clapgun Street, have been converted into dwellings.

Pedestrian footfall . Footfall was observed to be greatest in the centre along the (A9) southern half of Borough Street up to Market Place. Footfall appeared to drop off away from Borough Street, towards The Hollow and along Clapgun Street, which are both areas dominated largely by residential use.

Accessibility (A10) . Free on-street parking is available along the length of Borough Street and Clapgun Street. There are also a number of free car parks throughout the centre. . The Market Place car park, which contains only 8 or so spaces, appears very busy and at the time of the site visit, cars had mounted nearby curbs. In contrast the car park by The Hollow was less busy with a number of spaces available. . Aside from some minor congestion along Market Street, no major problems of traffic circulation were observed. . Castle Donington does not have a train station, but does benefit from a bus interchange. Bus services run from Castle

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Donington to Coalville, as well as Derby, East Midlands Airport, Loughborough and Leicester with the half-hourly ‘Skylink’ service. A further new Skylink service introduced in 2012 provides an hourly link to Nottingham city centre, via Long Eaton and Beeston, including a stop at Long Eaton rail station, which is well connected to the national rail network. . We understand that bus service provision has been a concern of the local community, following the announcement in 2011 of the removal of the Indigo bus service route to the peripheral housing estates in Castle Donington. . Castle Donington & District Volunteer Centre trialled a Dial A Ride service to supermarkets (Castle Donington Co-op, Borough Street Shops, Morrisons in Coalville, and Tesco in Long Eaton). This suggests that there is an under provision in public transport facilities, both in and around the village and between settlements.

Customers and . 15 per cent of respondents to the household telephone survey residents’ views and undertaken in support of this study stated that they visit Castle behaviour (A11) Donington for shopping and services. This reflects the limited role and function of the centre in the context of the District as a whole, and suggests Castle Donington draws trade from a relatively small catchment area. The response rate of 15 per cent is lowest of the five surveys covered in the household survey and considered in this assessment. . 34 per cent of those respondents who visit Castle Donington did not consider that any improvements to the town centre were necessary. . 19 per cent of respondents considered that the retail offer in the centre required improvement, with 8 per cent also identifying that more independent retailers would be beneficial, and 7 per cent considering the centre would benefit from more supermarkets / food shops. . 17 per cent of respondents who visit Castle Donington consider that more parking provision would improve the centre. Given that car parking is currently free in Council operated car parks, there was satisfaction with current parking prices amongst visitors to the centre.

Perception of . The village’s main street, Borough Street, has a large number safety/crime (A12) of CCTV cameras which provide a perception of safety. For the most part, the centre appears to experience limited levels of vandalism and on the site visit, there was no evidence of crime or damage to properties. Street lighting further contributes to the feeling of security. Overall the centre has a lively, social

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village feel.

Environmental . Despite a lack of street furniture and soft landscaping along quality (A13) Borough Street, the streetscape in the village centre is attractive, reflecting the character of the buildings with well - maintained pavements and roadways. The centre is well signposted by foot, with a welcoming atmosphere.

Summary of vitality and viability of Castle Donington town centre

4.10 We consider that Castle Donington is presently displaying generally positive signs of vitality and viability. There is a reasonable mixture of uses in the centre, relative to the size of the centre, and there is evidence that the centre is well supported by local residents. The focus of the retail offer on specialist, independent retailers enhances the centre, and it is positive to note that vacancy rates are presently low. The Council should seek to support and where appropriate enhance the retail and service function of the centre over the Core Strategy period to ensure that its current vitality and viability is retained.

Assessment of vitality and viability of Ibstock town centre

PPS4 Indicator Comments

Diversity of main . Our site visits to Ibstock identified a total of 30 units given over town centres (A1) to retail uses in Ibstock village centre. Ibstock has two convenience retail units along High Street — a general store and a butchers. There is no supermarket in the town centre, with the nearest large supermarket being an out-of-centre Midlands Co-Operative store approximately five minutes’ walk from the northern end of the High Street. . There are a number of comparison goods units offering a healthy variety of products, including womens fashion, electricals and a pet shop. However as it expected with the size of the centre there are a considerable number of gaps in the comparison goods offer; in particular there is no pharmacy in the town centre. . The service use offer dominates the centre, making up over half of the units (56%) with a large number of take-aways, and above average representation of hairdressers and beauty salons. . The 2005 RCS recorded a single vacant unit within Ibstock. This number has increased to five at the time of our visit, equivalent to 16.67 per cent of the total retail offer, higher than the UK average of 13.72 per cent.

Retail floorspace in . The only out-of-centre retail floorspace in Ibstock is the edge or out-of-centre aforementioned Midlands Co-Operative store on Ashby Road;

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locations (A2) this extends to an area of 1,047 sq.m net, and therefore is of a size which meets some residents day-to-day and main shopping needs. The store also includes a travel agent.

Potential for capacity . As with Castle Donington, the capacity for growth of Ibstock as for growth or change a retail destination is considered limited, and would not reflect of centre (A3) the aspirations of the Council’s emerging Core Strategy.

Retailer . The retail offer in Ibstock comprises of independent retailers, representation and with no representation from national operators in the village. intentions to change representation (A4) This reflects the function of Ibstock as a small rural service centre. . There are no published retail requirements for Ibstock, and we would anticipate demand for premises to be relatively limited and restricted to local businesses.

Proportion of vacant . The five vacant units within the centre of Ibstock are dispersed street level property across the length of the High Street and as such there are no (A6) hot spots of particular concern. From the site visit undertaken in October 2012 it was evident from the appearance of many properties that the centre had previously contained a larger retail offer with former shops converted into dwellings. The vacant properties appeared to be of similar size and scale to that of others on the High Street and no site particular reason could be seen for their vacancy.

Pedestrian footfall . Low levels of pedestrian footfall were evident throughout the (A9) centre, although there appeared to be a small flow of people to and from the car park (High Street Car Park) located towards the northern end of the High Street opposite The Palace. The lack of a larger supermarket within the town centre is likely to contribute to the subdued levels of footfall.

Accessibility (A10) . As well as significant free on-street parking available close to the centre, there are two large free car parks within the centre positioned at opposite ends of the High Street. Gladstone Street Car Park provides around 30 spaces and High Street Car Park approximately 60. Both car parks were around 30-40 per cent full at the time of visiting. . The centre is served by a number of bus routes linking Ibstock to Coalville, Hinckley, and Leicester. In 2011 the 152 bus service to Leicester was reduced to one service in the morning and one returning service in the evening. . There is no railway station in Ibstock. The nearest main line stations are Hinckley and Loughborough.

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Customers and . The household telephone survey undertaken in support of this residents’ views and study identifies that 23 per cent of residents in the district visit behaviour (A11) Ibstock for shopping or services, making Ibstock the third highest centre for visitor patronage behind Ashby and Coalville. . 59 per cent of those respondents who stated that they visit Ibstock consider that no improvements were needed to the centre. This represents the highest level of satisfaction of the five centres surveyed. . Other respondents considered that a better choice of shops was required (15 per cent), specifically a better choice of clothing/fashion shops (3 per cent), and better food shopping provision (2 per cent). . Whilst 2 per cent considered the centre could best be improved by reducing the numbers of vacant shops, the relatively limited number of responses to this category affirms the view above that vacancy rates are not an area of significant concern in Ibstock. . Issues associated with parking provision attracted few responses, suggesting that there is sufficient car parking available in the centre.

Perception of . The centre is open in nature, with limited landscaping or street safety/crime (A12) furniture. The centre feels relatively safe despite there being little CCTV. On the site visit there were no obvious signs of vandalism, and the car park as well as the public toilets appeared well kept. There are a significant number of dwellings interspersed with the retail units with contributes to the feeling of security.

Environmental . Attempts have been made to create a feeling of a public realm quality (A13) with a large clock tower and street furniture at the northern end of the High Street. As mentioned above, the predominance of dwellings mixed amongst retail units along the High Street create a low-key feel, appropriate to its setting. . Overall, Ibstock centre provides a pleasant environment in which to shop. Vacant units are in good repair and do not drastically taint the feel of the centre.

Summary of vitality and viability of Ibstock village centre

4.11 Ibstock appears to be struggling for vitality and viability at present. The retail offer in the centre is limited, and a high proportion of units are given over to low-end uses such as take-aways. Whilst this partly reflects the rural service centre role of the village, enhancing the diversity of the retail offer would improve patronage from the local area. There are a number of gaps in the retail offer, including a pharmacy and supermarket. The vacancy rate in the centre has also increased in recent years, suggesting the viability of the centre as a trading destination has reduced. However, the

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household survey results indicate a good level of satisfaction amongst users of the centre, and the environmental quality of the centre is generally strong.

4.12 The Council should consider favourable any opportunities to enhance the vitality and viability of the centre. We note that a number of retail uses have been converted to residential dwellings; caution should be taken that any further applications of this nature do not serve to erode the retail function of the centre, thereby undermining the Council’s emerging Core Strategy aspirations for the centre.

Assessment of vitality and viability of Measham village centre

PPS4 Indicator Comments

Diversity of main . Measham village centre is comprised of 29 units given over to town centres (A1) retail use, the smallest number of the five centres surveyed as part of our assessment. There are four comparison goods units, including a Tesco Express store, a grocery store, a newsagent and butchers. Whilst there are some gaps in the convenience goods offer, this is considered reasonable representation given the size of the centre. . There are a total of nine comparison goods retailers, including a chemist, card shop, furniture shop and bookshop. Overall comparison goods representation is 10 per cent below the UK average, and would benefit from further diversification; however this needs to be considered within the context of the overall role and function of the centre as a rural service centre. . There are a number of services retailers in the centre, and services retailers account for 41 per cent of units in the centre. Representation includes three take-aways, three hairdressers and two estate agents. There is no bank within the centre; however there is a cash point to the side of the Tesco Express unit. . There are three vacant units in the centre, below the UK average.

Retail floorspace in . There is a large DFS furniture store on the western edge of the edge or out-of-centre village on Tamworth Road, one of the few ‘bulky goods’ stores locations (A2) in the whole of the District. The store can be expected to draw trade from a considerably wider catchment area than the village itself, and does not appear to compete with the village centre to any significant extent. . Just outside the town centre boundary there is a small Co-Op foodstore, which provides an alternative food shop for residents in the town, although principally it can be expected to cater for top-up rather than main food shopping trips. There is no medium or large supermarket serving the centre.

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Potential for capacity . As with Castle Donington and Ibstock, the capacity for growth for growth or change of Ibstock as a retail destination is considered limited, and of centre (A3) would not reflect the aspirations of the Council’s emerging Core Strategy.

Retailer . The retail offer in Measham mostly consists of independent representation and retailers, although the Tesco Express store can be considered intentions to change representation (A4) to ‘anchor’ the retail offer. . There are no published retail requirements for Measham, and we would anticipate demand for premises to be relatively limited and restricted to local businesses.

Proportion of vacant . The vacant units within Measham centre are located towards street level property the southern end of the High Street. The vacancies may be (A6) related to the proposed Measham Wharf development scheme. As with the other smaller centres in the District, it is apparent that a number of shop units have been converted into residential dwellings – such as those within the centre at the western end of Bosworth Road.

Pedestrian footfall . Pedestrian footfall appeared generally low across the centre. (A9) Pedestrian numbers were at their greatest around the Tesco Express unit mid-way along the High Street. Pedestrian footfall was very low in peripheral parts of the centre.

Accessibility (A10) . The centre is well provided for in terms of car parking, with on- street parking throughout the centre, three small areas of dedicated car parking at Queens Street, Tesco and adjacent St Laurence’s Church, plus a large car park accessed via Peggs Close. The centre has a steady volume of traffic passing through, and the High Street has traffic-calming measures installed. . Measham is located just a mile away from the A42, within easy reach of the M42 motorway; this may explain the relatively high vehicular traffic flows through the village centre. . Bus services run from Measham to Nuneaton, Burton and Ashby. The nearest rail station is at Polesworth, approximately 7.4 miles away.

Customers and . The household telephone survey undertaken in support of this residents’ views and study identifies that Measham has only limited patronage as a behaviour (A11) shopping/services destination, with 19 per cent of respondents stating that they visit the centre for these purposes. . 50 per cent of those respondents that visit Measham considered that no improvements were needed to the centre. . 16 per cent of those respondents that visit Measham

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considered that Measham would benefit from a bigger choice of shops, although as with Ibstock no particular requirement for improved supermarket / food shops provision was identified. . 8 per cent of respondents identified that fewer vacant units would improve the centre. . Issues associated with parking provision attracted few responses, suggesting that there is both sufficient and reasonably-priced car parking available in the centre.

Perception of . Although there was no evidence of significant vandalism safety/crime (A12) observed at the time of our visit a few of units had security bars over the front windows (i.e. Parish Council building) which suggests a fear of crime.

Environmental . The streetscape offers little character or sense of place. The quality (A13) linear nature of the High Street creates a feeling of openness, however, there is little space provided for public realm activity, such as seating or soft landscaped areas, and as such, the centre feels fairly functional. . The buildings and streetscape appeared to be fairly worn and many shop fronts appeared dated and in need of investment. . The corner of Boworth/ High Street at the time of the site visit appeared to be undergoing improvements in the public realm.

Summary of vitality and viability of Measham village centre

4.13 The role and function of Measham — in common with Castle Donington and Ibstock — is primarily one associated with meeting local convenience and service needs, rather than being a shopping destination in its own right. The centre is more poorly served for foodstore provision than the other centres in the District, with just two small top-up shops to meet local needs. There is a small range of comparison goods shops, including key facilities such as a pharmacy, however there is no bank in the centre. There are three vacant units in the centre, which is below the UK average.

4.14 There do not appear to be any over-riding concerns with the vitality and viability of Measham; it appears functional, and responses to the household survey suggest reasonable levels of satisfaction with the centre. However the centre would benefit from improved footfall and some ‘softening’ of appearance to increase its attractiveness.

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5 CURRENT AND FUTURE STUDY AREA SPENDING

5.1 In this section we define the study area which has been used as the basis of our assessment of the updated retail capacity forecasts for North West Leicestershire. We set out the population growth which is expected to come forward in this area over the Study period, as well as expected growth in personal spending on comparison (non-food) and convenience (food) goods.

Study area definition

5.2 In Figure 2 below we set out the study area (SA) which forms the basis of our assessment. The SA is unchanged from that used in the 2005 RCS and the 2007 RCS Update, in order to allow for an evaluation of changes in shopping patterns since the previous studies to be undertaken.

5.3 The boundaries of the SA correlate to the administrative boundaries of North West Leicestershire District, reflecting the fact that the District is relatively self-contained in terms of the role and function of the main town centres — i.e. the principal role and function of the centres in North West Leicestershire is to meet local shopping needs, rather than fulfil a regional or larger-scale shopping role. On this basis, a relatively tightly-defined SA is considered to be appropriate. We have divided the SA up into seven survey zones, which have been principally defined by ward boundaries, as well as the requirement to have one main town/village centre within each of the survey zones. For continuity, the boundaries and numbering of the survey zones is also unchanged from that used in the previous Retail Capacity Studies.

5.4 The principal centres of population in North West Leicestershire — Coalville and Ashby — sit within zones 6 and 3 respectively. The smaller centres in the District are distributed across the remaining survey zones, with Kegworth and Castle Donington in zone 1, Moira in zone 3 (alongside Ashby), Measham and Donisthorpe in zone 4, Ibstock in zone 5, Ellistown in zone 6 (alongside Coalville) and Whitwick in zone 7. Zone 2 is a largely rural area with no major towns or large villages, but a number of smaller villages including Belton, Diseworth and Breedon-on-the-Hill.

5.5 The SA is surrounded by a number of other population centres which are likely to influence the spending patterns of residents. For example, residents in zone 1 are in close proximity to the southern side of Nottingham, including the suburban town centres of Long Eaton and Beeston; residents in zones 2 and 7 have close geographic proximity to the towns of Shepshed and Loughborough, whist residents in zones 3 and 4 are closely situated to the centres of Swadlincote and Burton-upon-Trent.

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Figure 2 — Study area and zones for household telephone survey and retail capacity assessment

5.6 Table 5.1 summarises the population of each of the SA zones at 2011 (the base year for which Experian population data is available). It shows that in total the SA population amounts to 93,424 persons at 2011. The zones with the largest populations are zone 6 (Coalville) with a population of 18,651 and zone 3 (Ashby) with a population of 17,527.

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Table 5.1 — Population of zones in study area at 2010

Study area Zone name Main population centres Total zonal zone population, 2011

Zone 1 Castle Donington & Kegworth Castle Donington; Kegworth 11,326

Zone 2 North of Coalville Belton; Diseworth; Breedon-on- 13,061 the-Hill

Zone 3 Ashby Ashby-de-la-Zouch; Moira; 17,527 Blackfordby

Zone 4 Measham Measham; Donisthorpe; Appleby 9,517 Magna; Oakthorpe

Zone 5 Ibstock Ibstock; Packington; Ravenstone; 9,890 Heather

Zone 6 Coalville Coalville; Ellistown 18,651

Zone 7 Whitwick Whitwick; Coalville (Greenhill) 13,452

Total study area population 93,424

Source: Experian

Future population and expenditure growth in the SA

5.7 Table 5.2 summarises the locations for major housing development across North West Leicestershire over the period to 2031, sourced from the Council’s pre-submission draft Core Strategy.

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Table 5.2 — locations for major housing growth in North West Leicestershire District

Zone Development Total dwellings

1 South-west of Castle Donington 970

1 Kegworth 190

3 North of Ashby 610

4 West of Measham 440

5 West of Ibstock 220

6 Bardon Grange, Coalville 2,820

6 South-west of Coalville 800

6 Coalville (other development) 400

Source: Appendix 2 of North West Leicestershire Core Strategy (submission version, April 2012)

5.8 Experian also produce bespoke projections for each of the SA zones over the study period to 2031. We adopt these projections for the purposes of forecasting retail capacity for the District, as they are reflective of the scale of residential (and thus population) growth which is expected to come forward in the District. Table 5.3 shows the Experian population projections for each of the seven study zones at 2013, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031.

Table 5.3 — Population forecasts for SA to 2031 (including ‘adjusted’ forecasts to include higher house building levels)

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total

2011 11,326 13,061 17,527 9,517 9,890 18,651 13,452 93,424

2013 11,767 13,477 18,142 9,865 10,257 19,419 13,922 96,849

2016 11,982 13,804 18,555 10,188 10,532 20,006 14,234 99,301

2021 12,451 14,246 19,273 10,611 11,018 21,119 14,823 103,541

2026 12,877 14,653 19,961 11,001 11,442 22,152 15,385 107,471

2031 13,181 14,974 20,549 11,369 11,826 23,101 15,872 110,872

Source: Table 1, Appendix 2. Source: Experian

5.9 Table 5.3 shows that the population of the SA will increase from 93,424 persons (2011) to 110,872 persons by 2031. This is equivalent to an increase in 17,448 persons over the period 2011-2031. The highest level of population growth takes place in zone 6, where the population increases from

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18,651 persons in 2011 to 23,101 persons at 2031. The more rural parts of the District are expected to see lower levels of population growth.

Expenditure available to the SA

5.10 This section of the report discusses the total amount of comparison and convenience goods expenditure which is available to the SA. Reflecting the requirements of the study brief, we forecast expenditure in the SA over the period to 2031. However, we advise that longer-term forecasts (particularly post-2021) are treated as indicative, and should be subject to regular review throughout the Core Strategy period, particularly in light of the on-going economic uncertainty. The base year of the study’s retail capacity forecasts is 2013; expenditure growth (and subsequently quantitative need) is projected for the following interval periods:

. 2013-2016 . 2016-2021 . 2021-2026 . 2026-2031

5.11 This section should be considered alongside the detailed expenditure tables set out at 2a, 2b, 3a and 3b of Appendix 2. Tables 2a and 2b show the per capita spending of residents on comparison and convenience goods, whilst Tables 3a and 3b multiply this to the population forecasts discussed previously, to calculate the overall ‘pot’ of expenditure which is available to residents of the SA.

5.12 Turning first to comparison goods, Table 2a of Appendix 2 shows the per capita expenditure forecasts for residents of the SA in 2011 (the base year for which data is available from Experian), plus the study base year of 2013, and the interval years of 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031. At the study base year of 2013, average per capita expenditure on comparison goods is £2,904. There is considerable difference in expenditure across the SA however: residents in zone 2 have the highest per capita comparison goods spend, at £3,078 per person at 2013), whilst residents in zone 7 have the lowest per capita comparison goods spend, at £2,517 per person at 2013. There is quite a considerable difference of £561 per person between the parts of the SA with the highest and lowest per capita spending, therefore. Table 2b of Appendix 2 shows that per capita spending on convenience goods ranges from £1,977 in zone 1 to £1,736 in zone 7, with an average per capita spend on convenience goods of £1,889 in 2013.

5.13 In order to project how much expenditure will be available to residents in the SA over the future years in the plan period, it is necessary to ‘grow’ the current per capita expenditure figures, in line with forecast projections. The most recent forecasts of expenditure growth are set out in Experian’s Retail Planner Briefing Note 10.1 (ERP10.1) report, which was published in September 2012 and therefore offers an up-to-date and realistic assessment of expenditure growth within the context of the current economic downturn. Based on the forecasts set out in ERP10.1, we adopt the following expenditure growth rates for the purposes of our capacity assessment.

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Table 5.4 — Comparison and convenience goods expenditure growth rates, 2010-31

Comparison goods Convenience goods Time period expenditure growth expenditure growth Source rate, per annum rate, per annum

ERP10.1, Figure 1b (central case retail 2011-12: +0.6% 2011-12: -3.0% spend figure for 2010 2011-13 2012-13: +1.4% 2012-13: +0.1% and 2011) and Figure 1a (central case retail spend figure for 2012) 2013-14: +1.8% 2013-14: -0.1% 2013-16 2014-15: +2.4% 2014-15: zero ERP10.1, Figure 1a 2015-16: +2.9% 2015-16: +0.6% 2016-19: 0.6% per Growth rate of 2.9% annum 2016-21 per annum applied ERP10.1, Figure 1a 2019-21: 0.8% per throughout annum 2021-26 2.9% per annum 0.8% per annum ERP10.1, Figure 1a

ERP10.1, Figure 1a (Experian forecast to 2026-31 2.9% per annum 0.8% per annum 2029 carried forward to 2031)

Source: Table 2a/Table 2b, Appendix 2 & Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 10.1

5.14 Having established the per capita expenditure, Tables 3a (for comparison goods) and 3b (for convenience goods) of Appendix 2 multiply the population figures set out in Table 1 (as summarised in Table 5.1 above), and the expenditure figures set out in Tables 2a and 2b, to produce the total ‘pot’ of expenditure available to residents in the SA.

5.15 Table 3a shows that at 2013 there is a total of £279.68m available for residents of the SA for comparison goods spending, and this is expected to increase to £307.60m by 2016, £442.97m by 2026 and £527.13m by 2031. Table 3b shows that there is currently (at 2013), £181.98m of expenditure on convenience goods available to residents of the SA, and this is forecast to increase to £187.52m by 2016, £218.42m by 2026 and £234.46m by 2031. Growth in convenience goods expenditure is therefore considerably lower than comparison goods expenditure, reflected by the different expenditure growth forecasts shown in Table 5.3.

5.16 However not all of this expenditure is available to support new retail floorspace in the SA, and at this stage it is appropriate to make allowance for a proportion of the total available expenditure to be diverted towards ‘special forms of trading’ (SFT) such as online shopping. We have previously highlighted in this study that SFT is expected to account for an increasing amount of total expenditure over the course of the study period, and this reduces the amount of expenditure which is available to support ‘bricks and mortar’ comparison goods shopping. In making allowance for SFT, we again refer to guidance set out in Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 10.1, which advises the deductions for SFT as set out in Table 5.5. We have adopted the ‘adjusted’ Experian forecasts for the purposes of our assessment — these are forecasts which make allowance for quasi-online shopping patterns, such as where an order is placed online but sourced from the shelves of a local

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store, thereby contributing to the overall turnover of that store (this process is common in online food shopping, with the exception of Ocado, and increasingly through ‘click & collect’ purchase options on comparison goods shopping websites).

5.17 It can be seen from Table 5.5 that SFT is expected to increase for both comparison goods and convenience goods over the course of the study period. For comparison goods, the current ‘adjusted’ SFT figure of 10.7 per cent is expected to increase to 16.1 per cent of total comparison goods spending by 2031. SFT on convenience goods is expected to remain somewhat lower than comparison goods, but is expected to at least double from the current ‘adjusted’ figure of 2.3 per cent to 4.7 per cent by 203114.

Table 5.5 — Proportion of comparison and convenience goods expenditure diverted to ‘Special Forms of Trading’ (SFT), 2013-2031

Comparison goods SFT Convenience goods SFT

discount discount

2013 10.70% 2.30%

2016 12.90% 2.90%

2021 15.80% 3.90%

2026 16.00% 4.40%

2031 16.10% 4.70%

Source: Table 3a/Table 3b, Appendix 2 & Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note10.1

5.18 Having allowed for the SFT discounts shown above to be taken into account, Table 3a (for comparison goods) and Table 3b (for convenience goods) of Appendix 2 show the residual amounts of expenditure available for spending on comparison and convenience goods shopping. These are summarised in Table 5.6 below. It can be seen that comparison goods spending will increase from the current amount of £249.75m (2013) to £267.92m by 2016 and £442.26m by 2031. Convenience goods spending in the SA will increase from £177.79m (2013) to £182.08m by 2016 and £223.44m by 2031.

14 Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 10.1 forecasts SFT discounts as far as 2029; the figure for 2029 is held constant to 2031.

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Table 5.6 — Expenditure available to SA (including SFT discount), 2013-2031

Comparison goods Convenience goods

Total Deduction to Residual Total Deduction Residual expenditure SFT (£m) expenditure expenditure to SFT expenditure (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m)

2013 279.68 29.93 249.75 181.98 4.19 177.79

2016 307.60 39.68 267.92 187.52 5.44 182.08

2021 369.98 58.46 311.52 202.24 7.89 194.35

2026 442.97 70.87 372.09 218.42 9.61 208.81

2031 527.13 84.87 442.26 234.46 11.02 223.44

Source: Table 3a/Table 3b, Appendix 2

5.19 Having established the amount of spending available to residents in the SA for comparison and convenience goods shopping, in the following section we review the findings of the household telephone survey into shopping patterns, to establish where this expenditure is currently being spent, and what proportion is retained within the SA and can therefore be used to support new retail floorspace over the Core Strategy period.

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6 CURRENT PATTERNS OF RETAIL SPENDING IN THE STUDY AREA

6.1 In this section we review the current patterns of spending on comparison (non-food) and convenience (food) goods in the SA, based on the findings of a household telephone survey of shopping patterns which was undertaken across the SA in October 2012. This section of the report should be read in conjunction with Appendix 2 to the Study, which sets out detailed tabulations showing the market shares and spending patterns obtained by each of the main town, city and district centres, foodstores and retail warehouse developments both within and outside the SA. A full copy of the household survey results is provided at Appendix 3.

Household Survey Methodology

6.2 Our assessment of current patterns of retail spending across the SA was based on a telephone survey of 700 households, conducted by NEMS Market Research during October 2012. The surveys were distributed between the seven SA zones identified in the previous chapter, in order for an accurate picture of localised shopping patterns to be clearly established. As noted previously, the boundaries of the survey zones are unchanged from those adopted in the previous Retail Capacity Studies, in order to allow for any changes in shopping patterns across the District between 200515 and 2012 to be clearly identified.

6.3 Reflecting the Practice Guidance which accompanies PPS4, at least 100 interviews were successfully conducted in each Zone. Appendix 3 (the full household survey results) sets out details of the postcode sectors which make up each of the survey zones (although zonal boundaries are largely based on amalgamations of ward areas).

6.4 In order to ensure a full cross-section of demographic representation in the survey results, respondents were contacted at a variety of times (during the day, in the evening, and at the weekend). All respondents were verified to be the main shopper in the household. The NEMS report attached separately to this study (as Appendix 3) contains the household survey data in full and also contains full explanation of the statistical reliability of the survey sample.

6.5 The survey questionnaire sought to establish the following:

. patterns of convenience goods spending, based on: ▫ the shop where the household spends most money on food and groceries, and the amount spent per week; ▫ the shop where the household undertakes most ‘top-up’ food and groceries purchases, and the amount spent per week; ▫ spending on food and groceries in small shops, for those who named supermarkets in answer to the above two questions . for main food shopping, the reasons why residents chose to undertake their main food shop at the store specified, whether the trip was linked with visits to other shops, leisure or service outlets, and the mode of transport used to access these destinations were also asked.

15 No new household survey was undertaken to inform the 2007 Retail Capacity Study Update

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. patterns of comparison goods spending, based on the locations of the last two purchases of: ▫ clothes and shoes, as well as the reasons for choosing this location and mode of transport used to access this destination; ▫ furniture, carpets and soft household furnishings; ▫ DIY and decorating goods; ▫ Electrical items; ▫ Health & beauty or chemist items; ▫ Recreational goods (e.g. sports equipment, bicycles, toys); ▫ Other non-food items (e.g. books, CDs, jewellery) . the proportion of the household’s spending on food and non-food goods that is accounted for by online shopping. . Whether respondents visited any town centres in North West Leicestershire District, and if so, what respondents considered could be improved in these centres. Reflecting the focus of the study and the Council’s emerging Core Strategy, this question was only included for the centres of Coalville, Ashby, Castle Donington, Ibstock and Measham. The results of the survey findings for this question have previously been discussed in Section 4 of this report. . patterns of visits to leisure destinations such as restaurants, cinema, theatre and ten-pin bowling

Comparison goods shopping patterns

6.6 In this section of the report we focus on the ‘composite’ comparison goods spending patterns of residents in the SA. This refers to the aggregate overall shopping patterns of residents, based on weighted results of the household survey. For comparison goods, questions were asked in the household survey of the spending patterns of residents in relation to seven different types of comparison goods, as listed above. The composite spending pattern has been derived by application of the following percentage weights for these seven categories, based on bespoke Experian per capita spending data specific to the seven SA zones.

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Table 5.1 — Percentage weighting for comparison goods sub-categories

Proportion of spend Comparison goods spending category (from household allocated to composite survey) spending pattern (%)

Clothing and footwear 24.34%

Furniture, carpets and soft furnishings 11.52%

DIY and decorating goods 25.36%

Electrical items & domestic appliances 8.72%

Health & beauty, chemist goods 3.87%

Recreational goods 13.38%

Other non-food items 12.83%

All comparison goods 100.00%

Source: Experian per capita spending data for SA.

6.7 Full tabulations of comparison goods spending patterns are set out at Tables 4a and 4b of Appendix 2 to this study. This shows the market shares which each principal centre in the SA attracts from each of the seven survey ones, as well as the market shares attracted to each of the main shopping destinations outside the SA.

6.8 In Table 5.6 in the previous chapter, we identified that there is a total of £249.75m comparison goods expenditure available to residents in the SA at the study base year of 2013, having made allowance for Special Forms of Trading discounts such as online shopping. However, not all of this expenditure is retained within the SA. The amount of expenditure retained within the SA can be established by reviewing the figures in Table 4b of Appendix 2: the row ‘overall sub-total for study area’ shows that of the £249.75m comparison goods expenditure available, £91.17m is spent at stores within the SA. Dividing £91.17m by £249.75m produces a comparison goods retention rate of 36.5 per cent. Therefore the SA retains just over one-third of all available comparison goods expenditure, with almost two-thirds ‘leaking’ to destinations outside the SA.

6.9 Perhaps surprisingly, given the improvements to the retail offer in centres surrounding the SA, as discussed in Section 3, we note that the retention rate has increased from the figure of 31.8 per cent identified in the 2005 RCS. However, it is clear that there is still considerable expenditure leakage to destinations outside the SA and a key aim of the Council over the course of the Core Strategy period should be securing further improvements to this retention rate.

6.10 Of the £91.17m comparison goods expenditure which is retained within the District, the expenditure is distributed between a wide number of stores and destinations. The main destinations for comparison goods spending within the SA are summarised in Table 6.2 below; as would be expected, they are headed by Coalville and Ashby town centres, with other destinations in the SA

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securing relatively limited trade draws from residents in the SA. A more detailed breakdown of comparison goods spending patterns is set out at Table 4b of Appendix 2.

Table 6.2 — Main destinations for comparison goods spending in study area

Destination Comparison goods Comparison goods spend from SA spend from SA (as % of total expenditure)

Coalville town centre £43.60m 17%

Ashby town centre £17.01m 7%

Tesco, Ashby £11.44m 5%

Ibstock £5.37m 2%

Retail warehouses, Dents Road, Ashby £3.90m 2%

Morrisons, Coalville £2.92m 1%

Source: Table 4b, Appendix 2

6.11 Coalville town centre therefore accounts for 17 per cent of total comparison goods spending available to the SA, drawing £43.60m of trade from the SA. Ashby draws a further £17.01m, equivalent to 7 per cent of the total expenditure available to the SA. The recently-extended large Tesco store on the outskirts of Ashby forms the third-highest comparison goods spending destination in the SA, which is in part a reflection of the fact that there is limited ‘bulky goods’ retail warehouse provision within the SA.

6.12 Ibstock is the only other town centre which attracts a significant volume of comparison goods spending, drawing £5.37m from the SA. Given the limited role and function of the centre within the District’s retail hierarchy this can be considered an acceptable performance. Other centres draw within the SA draw less than 1 per cent of total comparison goods expenditure; analysis of Table 4b of Appendix 2 shows that Measham draws £2.22m of spending and Castle Donington £1.28m of spending.

6.13 The new retail park opposite the Tesco store in Ashby, which contains units operated by Wickes and Pets at Home, draws a further £3.90m of trade.

6.14 In Table 4b of Appendix 2, the turnovers which the centres achieve from different parts of the SA can also be reviewed, as the overall spending patterns are disaggregated into the seven survey zones. For example, it can be seen that Coalville town centre draws trade to varying degrees from across the seven survey zones, but most of its trade is from zone 6 (which covers Coalville itself), from which £15.51m is drawn; zone 2 (north of Coalville), from which £8.61m is drawn, and zone 7 (Whitwick) from which £8.40m is drawn. Conversely Coalville draws just £0.31m of spending from the Castle Donington / Kegworth areas (zone 1), suggesting residents in these areas look outside the SA for their comparison goods shopping needs.

6.15 As set out above, there is a total of £249.75m comparison goods expenditure available to residents of the SA, and £91.17m of this is retained by stores within the SA. Therefore the remaining

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£158.58m is spent at destinations outside the SA (and thus outside the District). This loss of expenditure is termed ‘leakage’, and the most popular comparison goods shopping destinations outside the SA are shown in Table 6.3.

Table 6.3 — Comparison goods expenditure leakage destinations

Destination Expenditure ‘leaked’ Expenditure ‘leaked’ from SA from SA (as % of total expenditure)

Leicester — city centre £23.51m 9%

Loughborough — town centre (incl. £19.46m 8% foodstores)

Leicester — Fosse Park (incl. foodstores) £16.80m 7%

Loughborough — retail warehouses/non-town £16.28m 7% centre stores

Burton-on-Trent town centre £13.68m 5%

Derby city centre £10.59m 4%

Nottingham city centre £9.00m 4%

Swadlincote — all stores £6.63m 3%

Tamworth — retail warehouses £6.64m 3%

Long Eaton — town centre (incl. foodstores) £5.17m 2%

Source: Table 4b, Appendix 2. Note: figures for Loughborough town centre include comparison goods expenditure spent at Tesco foodstore, The Rushes. Figures for Fosse Park include Asda and Sainsbury’s stores. Figure for Swadlincote refers to all stores in town. Figure for Long Eaton includes Asda and Tesco stores.

6.16 Table 6.3 shows that Leicester is the most popular comparison goods shopping destination outside the SA. The city centre attracts £23.51m of spending from the SA, and stores at Fosse Park attract a further £16.80m. Analysis of Table 4b of Appendix 2 shows that in total Leicester attracts £43.61m of spending from the SA, when also including other retail parks, standalone stores and district centres such as Beaumont Leys. When compared with the previous household survey results, the new survey data would appear to indicate that Leicester has lost some market share from the SA, despite the improvements in its retail offer which have taken place, although we expect part of this loss in market share to be explained by changes in the household survey methodology which allow for more accurate reporting of data.

6.17 Loughborough attracts a total of £35.74m of spending from the SA, split between £19.46m to the town centre and £16.28m to out-of-centre retail warehouses and foodstores. It is apparent that Loughborough town centre has increased its attractiveness as a shopping destination since the previous household survey, and in particular greater expenditure flows to the town from zones 1, 6 and 7 are apparent. The improvements to the retail offer in the town centre through the completion

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and full leasing of The Rushes Shopping Centre are likely to be a contributory factor behind these changes in shopping patterns.

6.18 Burton-on-Trent and Derby city centre both also draw significant amounts of expenditure from the catchment area. In the case of Derby, there is little evidence to suggest the opening of the Westfield development has had a significant impact on shopping patterns of residents in the SA, as market shares to Derby are generally similar to those in the previous household survey from 2005. Analysis of Table 4b shows that flows to these two centres are not SA-wide, but restricted to parts of the catchment with strong geographical proximity: for example the vast majority of the trade draw to Burton is from zones 3 and 4, and virtually all of the trade draw to Derby is from zone 1, with a further £2m from zone 3. Similarly, of the £9.00m drawn to Nottingham city centre from the SA, £4.35m is from zone 1.

6.19 It is important to appreciate therefore that a degree of expenditure leakage is inevitable in any SA, particularly when parts of the SA benefit from strong geographical proximity to higher-order or larger shopping centres (as is the case here, with Derby, Leicester and Nottingham, plus sub-regional centres such as Burton, Loughborough and Tamworth all within easy reach of residents of the SA). On this basis, in order to get a clear indication of how different parts of the SA are performing, we review the shopping patterns on a zonal basis below. Comparison goods retention rates by zone

6.20 As is to be expected given the mix of urban and rural areas which comprise the SA, there is fluctuation across the SA in terms of the proportion of comparison goods market shares which are retained by zones — and as noted above, certain zones are afforded close proximity to large urban centres just outside the SA boundary, which has potential to significantly impact on shopping patterns. Zonal retention rates can be reviewed by considering the row titled ‘overall sub-total for study area’ in Table 4a of Appendix 2. This shows the market share which is collectively retained by all centres and stores within the SA on a zonal basis. The comparison goods retention rates for each of the seven SA zones is summarised in Table 6.4 below.

Table 6.4 — Comparison goods retention rates by zone

Zone Zone name Comparison goods Comparison goods retention rate for zone retention rate for zone (2012) (2005)

Zone 1 Castle Donington & Kegworth 6.15% 6.3%

Zone 2 North of Coalville 39.95% 23.8%

Zone 3 Ashby 43.12% 27.6%

Zone 4 Measham 30.64% 29.5%

Zone 5 Ibstock 48.82% 46.5%

Zone 6 Coalville 43.97% 46.1%

Zone 7 Whitwick 36.69% 40.4%

Source: Table 4b, Appendix 2

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6.21 Table 6.4 shows that the zone with the highest level of expenditure retention is zone 5 (Ibstock); almost 50 per cent of comparison goods expenditure available to residents in this zone is retained within the SA. This is followed by zone 6 (Coalville) with 44 per cent and zone 3 (Ashby) with 43 per cent. These performances are considered to be acceptable in the context of the current provision in the SA but there is clear scope for improvement in line with an enhanced shopping offer in Coalville town centre. Overall, it is apparent that many comparison goods shopping needs of residents in the SA are not being met by facilities within the SA, resulting in the need to travel further afield.

6.22 The lowest retention rate is zone 1, where just 6 per cent of comparison goods expenditure is retained within the SA. This is largely a product of the distance of this zone to Coalville and Ashby being greater than the distance to centres such as Loughborough and Long Eaton outside the SA boundary, as well as the limited provision within the zone itself. The low retention rate of this zone is not considered particular cause for concern.

6.23 For reference, Table 6.4 also shows the retention rates identified in the previous household survey, undertaken in 2005. It shows that the retention rate for zones 6 and 7, which cover Coalville / Ibstock, has declined, possibly a reflection of the stagnation of the retail offer in Coalville. However in the northern and western parts of the SA, there has been an improvement in the retention rate — with retention rates in zone 3 increasing from 28 per cent to 43 per cent, which clearly represents a significant improvement, and suggests Ashby’s retail offer (including out-of-centre facilities) has been strengthened.

Localised comparison goods retention rate

6.24 It is also important to consider the localised comparison goods retention rate; this is the proportion of expenditure on comparison goods available to residents in a specific zone which is actually spent at stores/town centres within that zone. As above, this can be expected to fluctuate depending on the characteristics of the zone, with some being urban and others rural, however it is a useful exercise in identifying any deficiencies which may exist at the local level. The localised retention rate is obtained from reviewing the ‘subtotal’ rows for each of the individual zones within Table 4a of Appendix 2, and is summarised in Table 6.5 below.

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Table 6.5 — Localised comparison goods retention rate by zone

Zone Zone name Localised comparison Localised goods retention rate comparison goods for zone (2012) retention rate for zone (2005)

Zone 1 Castle Donington & Kegworth 3.97% 3.0%

Zone 2 North of Coalville 0.11% 0.5%

Zone 3 Ashby 36.37% 18.5%

Zone 4 Measham 4.97% 1.9%

Zone 5 Ibstock 9.62% 7.2%

Zone 6 Coalville 34.18% 40.9%

Zone 7 Whitwick 0.34% 0%

Source: Table 4b, Appendix 2

6.25 Table 6.5 shows that the highest localised retention rate is zone 3 (Ashby), where 36 per cent of comparison goods expenditure available to residents in the zone is actually spent at stores within the zone. It is noteworthy that Ashby’s localised retention rate has almost doubled relative to the position in the 2005 RCS, also shown above. Coalville’s localised retention rate is approximately two percentage points lower than Ashby’s — although given the Coalville urban area also extends into zone 7 this figure should be treated with a degree of caution. Nevertheless it is apparent that the localised retention rate for zone 6 is approximately seven percentage points lower than was the case at the time of the previous survey, suggesting the town is losing an increased amount of trade to other destinations.

6.26 In rural parts of the SA, the localised retention rates are lower — under 10 per cent in the remaining five survey zones — reflecting the lack of comparison goods shopping facilities in these destinations. Zones 4 and 5 post small improvements in the localised retention rates relative to 2005; however in other zones the localised retention rates are virtually unchanged.

Most popular comparison shopping destinations by zone

6.27 Based on the findings and comments above, Table 6.6 shows the principle comparison shopping destinations for each of the seven survey zones. This establishes the most popular locations where residents in each survey zone within the SA undertake their comparison goods shopping.

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Table 6.6 – Most popular comparison goods shopping destinations by Zone Second most popular Third most popular Most popular comparison Zone comparison shopping comparison shopping shopping destination destination destination

1 Derby city centre (18%) Long Eaton (14%) Loughborough TC (14%)

2 Coalville town centre (23%) Loughborough TC (12%) Loughborough RP’s (10%)

3 Ashby town centre (23%) Burton town centre (14%) Tesco, Ashby (10%)

4 Burton town centre (16%) Tamworth RP’s (13%) Ashby town centre (8%)

Leicester city centre 5 Coalville town centre (26%) Fosse Park (11%) (17%)

Leicester city centre 6 Coalville town centre (31%) Fosse Park (12%) (17%)

7 Coalville town centre (27%) Loughborough TC (15%) Leicester city centre (13%) Source: Table 4a, Appendix 2. RP = Retail Park; TC = Town Centre

6.28 Table 6.6 confirms that comparison goods shopping patterns differ significantly across the SA. Coalville is the most popular comparison goods shopping destination for four of the seven survey zones — yet for zones 1, 3 and 4 it does not feature within the top three most popular shopping destinations. Table 6.6 shows that Ashby’s trade draw is principally restricted to zones 3 and 4 of the SA, whilst, as noted previously, residents of zone 1 principally travel outside the SA to undertake their comparison goods shopping, with Derby, Long Eaton and Loughborough all securing similar market shares from these zones.

6.29 Interestingly, Table 6.6 demonstrates that across the SA there is no one dominant retail centre which attracts the majority of the area’s shopping, either within or outside the SA. The highest market share with any of the ‘most popular comparison shopping destinations’ achieves is 31 per cent, and is as low as 16 per cent in zone 4. This indicates that shopping patterns across the area are considerably dispersed, with a number of destinations competing with each other for residents’ spending.

6.30 Table 6.6 also shows that no more than one shopping destination within the SA features in the top three comparison shopping destinations of any of the survey zones: Coalville for zones 2, 5, 6 and 7, and Ashby for zones 3 and 4. This suggests the catchment areas for the two towns have little overlap, and analysis of the market shares in Table 4a of Appendix 2 confirms that there is relatively little ‘cross-pollination’ of spending between the two towns.

6.31 Table 6.6 also confirms that Loughborough has a considerable influence over comparison goods shopping patterns for residents in zones 1, 2 and 7, whilst the influence of Leicester over shopping patterns in the SA is largely restricted to zones 6 and 7 (Coalville and Whitwick). Comparison goods shopping patterns by sub-sector

6.32 In this section we consider the aggregate comparison goods shopping patterns for each of the seven comparison goods sub-sectors which underpin the aggregate ‘composite’ spending patterns as set

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out at Table 6.1. This is a useful exercise as it establishes sectors where centres have a particular strength, or conversely are losing considerable market share to locations outside the SA.

6.33 For clothing and shoes, the most popular shopping destination for residents in the SA is Leicester city centre, which attracts a market share of 18 per cent from across the SA. This is followed by Fosse Park (where the clothing offer is considerably stronger than for most out-of-centre retail parks, owing to the presence of large branches of Marks & Spencer, New Look, Next, Monsoon, Gap. River Island and BHS, with a market share of 10 per cent, Burton-on-Trent, Loughborough and Coalville (Table 6.7)

Table 6.7 — Main destinations for clothes & shoes goods shopping

Destination Clothing & shoes goods market share from SA

Leicester city centre 17.86%

Fosse Park 10.15%

Burton-on-Trent town centre 9.69%

Loughborough town centre 8.46%

Coalville town centre 8.31% Source: household survey results

6.34 Therefore just 8 per cent of residents in the SA visit Coalville town centre for clothing and footwear shopping, with a further 6 per cent visiting Ashby town centre. Closer analysis of the market shares shows that for clothing and shoes shopping, the highest market share which Coalville town centre achieves is 17 per cent (from zone 5), with just a 13 per cent market share drawn from its ‘local’ zone, zone 6 (i.e. only 13 per cent of residents who live in Coalville undertake shopping for clothes and shoes in Coalville town centre).

6.35 The SA is therefore losing significant expenditure in this sector to destinations outside the SA. Given the trends set out in Section 3 in respect of the ‘polarisation’ of many clothing goods retailers towards higher-order centre, some expenditure loss is to be expected to centres to higher-order centres such as Leicester. However, the trends identified here point to a clear underperformance in the offer of the town centres in the SA — particularly Coalville, as the highest-order centre in the District. Should the proposals for the redevelopment of the Belvoir Shopping Centre come forward (or an equivalent alternative scheme), it would be expected that some of the expenditure which is currently being lost to centres such as Burton and Loughborough would be ‘clawed back’.

6.36 For furniture goods shopping (including ‘bulky’ furniture items, plus smaller home furnishings items), Coalville town centre performs substantially better, attracting a market share of 22 per cent from the SA, ahead of Leicester city centre, Loughborough, Nottingham and Ashby. This indicates that there is less of a qualitative gap in this sector based on current retailer representation in Coalville (Table 6.8)

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Table 6.8 — Main destinations for furniture goods shopping

Destination Furniture goods market share from SA

Coalville town centre 21.83%

Leicester city centre 8.84%

Loughborough town centre 8.08%

Nottingham city centre 7.58%

Ashby town centre 6.32% Source: household survey results

6.37 For hardware and DIY goods, the SA loses approximately one-third total market share to the large B&Q store at Jubilee Drive in Loughborough. Flows to this store are particularly strong from zone 3 (48 per cent market share), zone 6 (46 per cent market share) and zone 7 (45 per cent market share). The strong market shares directed to this store are likely to have been enhanced as a result of the closure of the Focus DIY store in Coalville, following the Focus chain entering administration. There is currently no large DIY store serving the needs of residents of Coalville and the surrounding area, suggesting a qualitative gap in provision.

6.38 The recently-opened Wickes DIY store on the outskirts of Ashby attracts the second-highest market share on aggregate, drawing 17 per cent from the SA. However the store is relatively limited in size, and given the high flows from zone 3 to the aforementioned B&Q store it is apparent that the range of products traded from this unit is too limited for some residents’ shopping needs. A further 14 per cent of spending is directed towards Coalville town centre, where the presence of stores such as Wilkinson allows some DIY goods shopping needs to be met.

Table 6.9 — main destinations for DIY goods shopping

Destination Hardware & DIY goods market share from SA

B&Q, Loughborough 32.00%

Wickes, Ashby 16.88%

Coalville town centre 14.21%

B&Q, Burton-on-Trent 5.30%

Ashby town centre 4.43% Source: household survey results

6.39 For sales of electrical goods (including small electrical appliances), Coalville town centre has the highest market share, drawing 19 per cent of spending from the SA. The recently-extended Tesco store at Ashby, as well as Ibstock town centre, also features in the most popular shopping

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destinations for this type of goods, suggesting the SA is better provided for in this sector than in some of those set out above. However, there remains expenditure leakage to destinations including Fosse Park (particularly from residents in Coalville) and Loughborough, which both include large branches of Currys/PC World — we are not aware of any equivalent retail warehouse-format provision within the SA.

Table 6.10 — main destinations for electrical goods shopping

Electrical goods market Destination share from SA

Coalville town centre 18.57%

Fosse Park, Leicester 9.84%

Tesco, Ashby 7.70%

Ibstock town centre 7.52%

Regent Place Retail Park, Loughborough 6.75% Source: household survey results

6.40 Turning to health and beauty goods, analysis of the market shares shows that the SA performs reasonably strongly: four of the five most popular destinations for spending on these goods are within the SA itself. Coalville town centre achieves a market share of 29 per cent, and Ashby a market share of 21 per cent. On a zone-by-zone basis, it is positive to note that Coalville town centre achieves a market share of 62 per cent from its ‘local’ zone (zone 6), a considerably higher figure than for other comparison goods categories. Similarly, Ashby town centre achieves a market share of 68 per cent from residents in its ‘local’ zone, zone 3. The stronger performance of the centres in the SA in respect of these type of goods indicates a good level of provision in both town centres (for example, Coalville has representation from Boots, Superdrug, Home Bargains and Wilkinson) and there is no major qualitative gap in the current offer.

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Table 6.11 — main destinations for health & beauty goods shopping

Destination Health & beauty goods market share from SA

Coalville town centre 28.60%

Ashby town centre 20.07%

Tesco, Ashby 6.78%

Loughborough town centre 6.06%

Morrisons, Coalville 4.44%

Source: household survey results

6.41 Coalville town centre draws a similar aggregate market share for customers shopping for recreational goods (such as sports equipment, bicycles, musical instruments, toys and so on). Coalville town centre attracts an aggregate market share of 28 per cent, considerably higher than second-placed Loughborough (8 per cent). The strongest trade draw is from zone 6 (57 per cent) followed by zone 7 (47 per cent). Whilst there is scope for improvement, the market shares indicate that a reasonable number of residents’ shopping needs are being satisfied.

6.42 Ashby has a weaker trade draw in this sector, with a market share of just 6 per cent from across the SA. This reflects the more limited retail offer of Ashby, particularly in this sector. Indeed it is noteworthy that the Tesco store on the outskirts of the town attracts a similar market share to the town centre as a whole.

Table 6.12 — main destinations for recreational goods shopping

Destination Recreational goods market share from SA

Coalville town centre 28.42%

Loughborough town centre 8.45%

Leicester city centre 7.03%

Ashby town centre 5.84%

Tesco, Ashby 4.93% Source: household survey results

6.43 Finally, Table 6.13 shows the main shopping destinations for ‘other’ comparison goods shopping items which fall outside the six categories described above. Examples of these types of goods include books, CDs, jewellery, china and glassware.

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6.44 Interestingly, it can be seen that Coalville and Ashby attract similar overall market shares from across the SA, with Ashby attracting 16 per cent of spending and Coalville 15 per cent. This is partly likely to be reflective of the more specialist retail offer of some of the stores in Ashby. However, for both centres, the aggregate market shares are low, suggesting there is significant expenditure leakage outside the SA for spending on these items. Loughborough town centre and Leicester city centre are the main beneficiaries of this expenditure leakage, with Burton and Derby also attracting expenditure from parts of the SA.

Table 6.13 — main destination for other comparison goods shopping

Destination Other comparison goods market share from SA

Ashby town centre 15.74%

Coalville town centre 15.48%

Loughborough town centre 10.95%

Leicester city centre 10.63%

Tesco, Ashby 9.09% Source: household survey results

Summary of comparison goods shopping patterns

6.45 From the analysis above it is apparent that whilst centres in the SA are meeting some of the comparison goods shopping needs of residents, there remains considerable expenditure leakage to destinations outside the SA. Just over a third of available comparison goods expenditure is retained within the SA; the remainder ‘leaks’ to destinations further afield. This is partly a product of the geography of the SA, but is also an indication that there is scope for the shopping needs of residents to be better met.

6.46 As the highest order centre in the District, Coalville attracts the highest market share of four of the seven survey zones within the SA — however the highest market share which it attracts from any one zone is 31 per cent, with a market share of between 20 and 30 per cent from the other three zones. It does not attract a significant trade draw from any zones beyond those in its immediate hinterland. Moreover, it is apparent that Coalville has lost market share from parts of its catchment area relative to when the previous household survey was undertaken in 2005.

6.47 Ashby continues to have a relatively localised catchment, which is reflective of the size of the town and its relatively limited comparison goods offer. However there are clear signs that Ashby’s market share has improved relative to the 2005 RCS, which is likely to be on account of a stronger town centre comparison goods offer, plus the out-of-centre developments at Dents Road / Resolution Road which reduce the need for residents to travel outside the SA for some bulky goods shopping. When comparing the ‘localised’ comparison goods retention rates, it is noteworthy that Ashby has a marginally higher localised retention rate than Coalville (although Coalville continues to more draw trade from a wider area).

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6.48 Destinations outside the SA continue to prove a popular trade draw for residents in the SA, and this is reflective of the placing of the District in between a number of higher-order shopping centres. It would appear that improvements to the retail offer in Loughborough have had an impact on the shopping patterns of residents in parts of the catchment, particularly zones 1 and 7. However, it would appear that major shopping developments in Derby and Leicester city centres have not had a significant impact on shopping patterns — residents who were previously visiting these centres for comparison goods shopping are still doing so, but there is no evidence that the centres are attracting substantial new market share on account of the new developments.

6.49 Overall, the current spending patterns point to a need to improve the trading performance of the principal town centres within the SA over the course of the Council’s Core Strategy period. Whilst it will never be possible for the SA to achieve complete self-sufficiency (i.e. a 100 per cent retention rate), there is scope for improvement relative to the current position. In particular, analysis of the household survey results points to a poor trading performance in the clothing & shoes, DIY goods and ‘other’ non-food goods (such as books, CDs, jewellery) sectors, and in order to better meet the shopping needs of residents in the SA an improvement in the provision of these types of goods would appear to be required.

Convenience goods shopping patterns

6.50 In the remainder of this section we progress to reviewing the findings of the household survey in respect of convenience shopping patterns. The structure of this part of the section follows that set out above for comparison goods shopping habits; questions on convenience goods shopping patterns were also ascertained through the household telephone survey of shopping patterns undertaken by NEMS Market Research in October 2012.

6.51 The ‘composite’ pattern of spending for convenience goods which forms the basis of our capacity assessment was derived from mean weekly household spend findings, as set out at Table 6.14. Table 6.14 – Mean household spend on convenience goods in the study area Mean household Percentage Convenience goods spend spend per week weighting

Main food and groceries shopping £76.20 79.82%

Top-up food and groceries shopping £14.12 14.79%

Small local shops £5.14 5.39%

All convenience goods £95.46 100% Source: weighted Household Survey results (NEMS Market Research). Based on mean weighted responses, adjusted to main food and groceries shopping spend.

6.52 Full tabulations of convenience goods market shares and pending patterns are set out at Tables 7a and 7b of Appendix 2 to this study. This shows the market shares which each of the main foodstores in the SA attract from each of the seven survey Zones, as well as the market shares attracted to foodstores outside the SA.

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Convenience goods expenditure available to the study area

6.53 We have set out in the previous chapter that total convenience goods expenditure in the SA amounts to £177.79m in the study base year of 2013, having made allowance for ‘Special Forms of Trading’ such as online shopping. This is expected to increase to £223.44m by the end of the Core Strategy period at 2031, as shown in Table 5.6 of Section 5. We set out previously that levels of expenditure growth in the convenience goods sector are expected to be lower than growth in the comparison goods sector.

6.54 Tables 7a and 7b of Appendix 1 show the market shares (Table 7a) and the amount of spending (Table 7b) which each foodstore within and surrounding the SA attracts. The row ‘overall total for sub-area’ in Table 7b shows that of the £177.79m convenience goods expenditure available to the SA, £134.73m is retained by stores within the SA — equivalent to a convenience goods expenditure retention rate of 75.8 per cent — so just over three quarters of available expenditure on convenience goods is spent within the SA.

6.55 The retention rate for convenience goods is almost 40 percentage points higher than the comparison goods retention rate of 36.5 per cent identified above. This reflects the fact that convenience goods shopping is a more localised activity — people are generally less willing to travel as far to undertake food shopping as to undertake non-food shopping. It also suggests that the SA is reasonably well provided for in terms of foodstores. Most popular convenience shopping destinations

6.56 Table 6.15 sets out the most popular individual convenience shopping destinations in the SA, based on the findings of the household survey.

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Table 6.15 — Main destinations for convenience goods spending in study area

Destination Convenience goods Convenience goods spend from SA spend from SA (as % of total expenditure)

Morrisons, Whitwick Road, Coalville £39.01m 22%

Tesco, Resolution Road, Ashby £32.99m 19%

Aldi, Thornborough Road, Coalville £14.89m 8%

Co-Op, Ashby Road, Ibstock £5.27m 3%

Co-Op, Derby Road, Ashby £5.13m 3%

Asda, Ashby Road, Coalville £5.04m 3%

Co-Op, Station Road, Castle Donington £4.47m 3%

Co-Op, Bridge Road, Coalville £3.79m 2%

Lidl, Thornborough Road, Coalville £3.08m 2%

Co-Op, Borough Street, Castle Donington £0.99m 1% Source: Table 7b, Appendix 1

6.57 Table 6.15 shows that the Morrisons store in Coalville is the most popular food shopping destination for residents of the SA, with a turnover of £39.01m drawn from SA residents. Tesco at Ashby achieves a turnover of £32.99m, and is the second most popular food shopping destination. These two stores therefore act as the principal food shopping destinations for Coalville and Ashby respectively. Combined, they account for over 50 per cent of the total amount of convenience goods expenditure which is retained by stores in the SA.

6.58 The Aldi store on the western edge of Coalville appears to be trading well, drawing £14.89m of trade from the SA, considerably more than the Lidl store on the opposite side of Thornborough Road, which draws just £3.08m of trade. Following this, there are a number of stores across the SA which trade at similar levels of between £3m and £5m – Co-Op stores in Ibstock, Ashby and Coalville centres, plus the Co-Op in Castle Donington, Lidl in Coalville and the Asda store in Coalville town centre, which has been recently converted from a Netto discount store.

6.59 Therefore, the main foodstores in both Ashby and Coalville town centres only draw limited trade when compared to the larger out-of-centre foodstores. Leakage of convenience goods expenditure

6.60 We have set out above that there is a total convenience goods expenditure ‘pot’ of £177.79m available to residents in the SA and of this £134.73m is spent within the SA. The remaining £43.06m

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(24 per cent of total expenditure) is therefore spent at foodstores outside the SA, and the most popular destinations for this spending are summarised at Table 6.16.

Table 6.16 — Main destinations for convenience goods spending leakage

Destination Expenditure ‘leaked’ Expenditure ‘leaked’ from SA from SA (as % of total expenditure)

Morrisons, Coppice Side, Swadlincote £7.55m 4%

Sainsbury’s, Civic Way, Swadlincote £3.13m 2%

Asda, Midland Street, Long Eaton £2.60m 1%

Sainsbury’s, Ashby Road, Loughborough £2.24m 1%

Sainsbury’s Local, High Street, Newhall £2.20m 1% Source: Table 7b, Appendix 1 Convenience goods retention by zone

6.61 The convenience goods zonal retention rate refers to the proportion of available convenience goods expenditure on a zonal basis which is collectively retained by the foodstores in the SA. The retention rate can be observed from reviewing the row ‘overall sub-total for study area’ in Table 7a of Appendix 1.

6.62 It can be seen from this table that parts of the SA benefit from high levels of expenditure retention: for example the retention rate in zone 5 (Ibstock) and zone 6 (Coalville) is 93 per cent in each case, suggesting that most residents in these areas are not currently travelling outside the SA in order to undertake their convenience shopping needs. A further two zones: zones 2 (north of Coalville) and 7 (Whitwick) also benefit from retention rates upwards of 80 per cent, which is considered represents a strong performance. Residents in zone 2 look to both Coalville and Ashby for their food shopping needs, whilst residents in zone 7 mostly look to Coalville.

6.63 Other parts of the SA have lower retention rates; the lowest retention rate is zone 1 (Castle Donington and Kegworth) where many residents shop in stores just outside the SA boundary in Long Eaton.

6.64 The zonal retention rates are summarised in Table 6.17 below. Overall we consider the zonal expenditure rates represent a generally positive performance and indicate that in many parts of the SA the food shopping needs of residents are being adequately met. However, it is clear that the Morrisons in Coalville and Tesco in Ashby are dominant over the retail offer, and we return to discuss this point later in the report.

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Table 6.17 — Convenience goods retention by zone

Zone Zone name Convenience goods retention rate for zone (2012)

Zone 1 Castle Donington & Kegworth 34.96%

Zone 2 North of Coalville 84.52%

Zone 3 Ashby 73.29%

Zone 4 Measham 52.97%

Zone 5 Ibstock 93.49%

Zone 6 Coalville 92.48%

Zone 7 Whitwick 88.48% Source: Table 7a, Appendix 1 Convenience goods localised retention rate

6.65 The localised convenience goods retention rate – which is the proportion of expenditure on convenience goods available to residents in a specific zone which is spent in stores/town centres within that Zone, shows considerable variation across the seven zones which make up the SA. The rate can be observed from reviewing the ‘sub-total for survey zone’ rows within Table 7a of Appendix 5. The localised retention rates by zone are summarised in Table 6.18 below.

6.66 The localised rate is important as it shows where people’s food shopping needs are not being adequately met at the local level, forcing them to travel further to undertake their food shopping.

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Table 6.18 — Convenience goods localised retention rate

Zone Zone name Localised convenience goods retention rate for zone (2012)

Zone 1 Castle Donington & Kegworth 31.50%

Zone 2 North of Coalville 1.90%

Zone 3 Ashby 62.92%

Zone 4 Measham 14.33%

Zone 5 Ibstock 27.65%

Zone 6 Coalville 76.52%

Zone 7 Whitwick 6.33%

Source: Table 7a, Appendix 1

6.67 Table 6.18 shows that the zone with the highest localised retention rate is zone 6 (Coalville), with 76.52 per cent. Therefore within this zone, over three quarters of residents who live in this zone also undertake their food shopping in the zone, suggesting that the majority of residents are satisfied with the convenience goods shopping provision. Zone 3 (Ashby) has the second highest localised retention rate, although at 63 per cent this is some way lower than the figure for Coalville, reflecting the more limited consumer choice available for residents in Ashby in terms of supermarkets.

6.68 Zones 1, 4, 5 and 7 have lower localised convenience goods retention rates, because of the more limited provision in these zones. Whilst centres such as Castle Donington, Ibstock and Measham each have at least one supermarket, the stores are relatively limited in size, and are therefore unlikely to be of sufficient scale to meet all residents’ main food shopping needs. The scale of foodstores supported within these centres is a product of the role and function of these locations within the District’s retail hierarchy, and a degree of expenditure leakage is to be expected. However, it can be seen that Measham’s localised retention rate is significantly lower than both Castle Donington and Ibstock, suggesting poorer provision here than in the other centres.

6.69 There are no supermarkets located in zone 2, which explains the low localised retention rate observed here.

6.70 Given the reasonable overall expenditure retention of convenience goods expenditure across the SA, we do not consider the fluctuations in the retention rates to represent particular cause for concern (with the exception of Measham), although they do indicate that in Ashby, and arguably Coalville, consumer choice is restricted at present. Main convenience shopping destinations by Zone

6.71 Table 6.19 shows the most popular food shopping destinations for each of the seven zones within the SA.

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Table 6.19 – most popular convenience shopping destination by survey Zone

Second most popular Third most popular Most popular convenience Zone convenience shopping convenience shopping shopping destination destination destination

1 Co-Op, C Donington (19%) Asda, Long Eaton (11%) Tesco, Long Eaton (9%)

2 Morrisons, Coalville (31%) Tesco, Ashby (24%) Aldi, Coalville (9%)

3 Tesco, Ashby (42%) Morrisons, S’cote (13%) Co-Op, Ashby (12%)

4 Tesco, Ashby (21%) Morrisons, S’cote (15%) Sainsbury’s, S’cote (9%)

5 Morrisons, Coalville (25%) Co-Op, Ibstock (23%) Aldi, Coalville (16%)

6 Morrisons, Coalville (36%) Aldi, Coalville (13%) Tesco, Ashby (12%)

7 Morrisons, Coalville (44%) Aldi, Coalville (13%) Tesco, Ashby (8%) Source: Table 7a, Appendix 1.

6.72 Table 6.19 shows that the Morrisons store is the most popular destination for convenience goods shopping for four of the seven survey zones, and attracts a market share over 30 per cent from three of these zones. This shows the store has a strong trade draw; indeed closer inspection of the survey results shown in Table 7a of Appendix 1 demonstrates that the store draws market share from each of the seven survey zones, in common with Tesco at Ashby. The Tesco store is the most popular convenience goods shopping destination for residents in zone 3 (from which it attracts a market share of 42 per cent) and zone 4, however Table 6.19 shows that residents in these zones also look towards Swadlincote for their convenience goods shopping needs to a greater extent than Coalville.

6.73 It is also interesting to note that whilst the Morrisons at Coalville enjoys a dominant role over shopping patterns in zones 6 and 7, supported by the Aldi store as the second most popular destination, the third most popular destination for food shopping for Coalville residents is the Tesco store in Ashby. This demonstrates that whilst there is limited evidence of comparison goods spending trips between Coalville and Ashby (and vice versa); residents are willing to travel between the two for food shopping.

6.74 Table 6.19 also shows that whilst Castle Donington and Ibstock each have a foodstore which is capable of meeting some residents’ main food shopping needs, residents in zone 4 (Measham) are currently travelling to stores in Ashby and Swadlincote: neither of the two foodstores in Measham attracts a market share greater than 5 per cent, compared to 19 per cent for the main shopping destination in Castle Donington, and 23 per cent in Ibstock (in each instance the stores are operated by Co-Op). Overlapping convenience goods catchments

6.75 Drawing together the findings set out above, in Table 6.20 we present a review of the ‘dominant’ convenience stores in each of the survey zones (stores which attract a market share of over 30 per

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cent), and stores of subsidiary influence (which attract a market share of between 10 and 30 per cent).

Table 6.20 – Dominant comparison goods shopping destinations and centres of subsidiary influence

Foodstore of subsidiary Dominant foodstore Zone Zone name influence (market share (market share of 30 %+) of 10-29%)

Castle Donington & Co-Op, Castle Donington Zone 1 None Kegworth Asda, Long Eaton

Zone 2 North of Coalville Morrisons, Coalville Tesco, Ashby

Morrisons, Swadlincote Zone 3 Ashby Tesco, Ashby Co-Op, Ashby

Tesco, Ashby Zone 4 Measham None Morrisons, Swadlincote

Morrisons, Coalville Co-Op, Ibstock Zone 5 Ibstock None Aldi, Coalville Tesco, Ashby

Aldi, Coalville Zone 6 Coalville Morrisons, Coalville Tesco, Ashby

Zone 7 Whitwick Morrisons, Coalville Aldi, Coalville

Source: Table 7a, Appendix 1.

6.76 Table 6.20 shows that four of the seven survey zones have one foodstore which attracts a market share of more than 30 per cent, and is therefore the ‘dominant’ foodstore in that zone. For zones 2, 6 and 7 this dominant foodstore is Morrisons in Coalville, whilst in Zone 3 it is Tesco in Ashby. In all cases there are at least one foodstore of subsidiary influence, which provides competition with the dominant foodstore, attracting a market share of between 10 and 29 per cent.

6.77 In the remaining three survey zones, no one foodstore claims a dominant market share, but in each case there are at least two foodstores of subsidiary influence (increasing to four in the case of zone 5). This suggests that these areas benefit from strong competition and have a good range of choice for residents within a reasonable distance — as encouraged in national planning policy guidance.

6.78 Table 6.20 shows that five of the seven survey Zones have one foodstore which attracts a market share of over 30 per cent from that Zone and is therefore the ‘dominant’ foodstore. In all cases there are at least one foodstore of subsidiary influence, which provides competition with the dominant foodstore, attracting a market share of between 10 and 29 per cent.

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Summary of convenience goods shopping patterns

6.79 The findings of the household survey indicate that more residents of the District are able to meet their convenience goods shopping needs compared to comparison shopping, with over three quarters of available convenience goods expenditure retained within the SA. Coalville is reasonably well provided for in terms of supermarkets, however, Morrisons aside, the stores are generally small and not of a scale that would meet many residents’ main food shopping needs. The Morrisons store thus remains the dominant retailer in the town by some degree — as it was at the time of the previously household survey — and residents would likely benefit from enhanced competition in this respect.

6.80 The Tesco store at Ashby serves the needs of many residents in the town and has a similarly dominant role over trading patterns, however there is evidence that some residents are choosing to shop outside the District at foodstores in Swadlincote. The recent permission for a discount foodstore on the outskirts of Ashby should help to improve consumer choice in the town.

6.81 Castle Donington, Ibstock and Measham all have at least one foodstore either within or close to their respective centres, which meet the shopping needs of some residents. The stores are smaller in scale, but this is appropriate to the role and function of these centres. Measham does have a particularly low localised retention rate however when compared to Castle Donington and Ibstock and scope may exist for this to be improved.

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7 QUANTITATIVE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL RETAIL FLOORSPACE IN THE STUDY AREA

7.1 Having established the current patterns of retail spending in the SA in the previous section, we now set out the amount of retail floorspace which the Council should make provision for over the course of the Core Strategy period. At the outset we emphasise that capacity forecasts should be subject to regular review throughout the Core Strategy period, in order to ensure an up-to-date evidence base which is based on accurate economic and market trends. We also advise that longer-term forecasts in this assessment (post-2021) should be treated as indicative.

7.2 Our assessment of quantitative need adopts a widely-followed and respected step-by-step methodology, which is consistent with CLG’s PPS4 Practice Guidance. The essential steps in the assessment of quantitative need build on the analysis undertaken in the preceding sections of this study, and can be summarised as follows:

Step 1

Assess the scale of population and expenditure growth between 2011 (the year from which Experian baseline population and expenditure forecasts) and 2031 (the end year for the study), and make allowances for Special Forms of Trading retail activity (as shown in Section 5).

Step 2

Assess existing retail supply and market shares (assess the provision of existing retail floorspace, and the shopping patterns of residents within the catchment area through the results of an empirical household survey of households resident in the catchment area, in order to establish the turnover attracted to each centre/store, and the proportion of expenditure which is ‘retained’ within the catchment area) (as shown in Section 6)

Step 3 Make allowance for other ‘claims’ on growth in retained expenditure (in addition to SFT in Step 1): • commitments to new floorspace (either schemes under construction or extant permissions that would result in additional retail floorspace); • sales density growth (that is the growth in turnover for existing retailers within existing floorspace). Step 4 Consider whether overtrading of existing floorspace represents an additional source of quantitative need.

Step 5

Assess quantitative need by calculating the initial residual expenditure pot that is potentially available for new retail floorspace (under three scenarios) and apply an estimated sales density (turnover per sq.m) to convert this expenditure to a quantitative need for additional floorspace.

Step 6

Develop alternative scenarios for calculating growth in residual expenditure, based on increases or

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decreases in the projected expenditure retention level

Quantitative need for comparison goods floorspace

7.3 This section should be read in conjunction with the quantitative comparison goods tabulations, as set out at Appendix 2 to the study, and structured as follows:

. Table 1 sets out the population growth expected to come forward in the SA over the period to 2031 (see Section 5); . Table 2a shows the per capita expenditure growth in comparison goods spending over the period to 2031 (see Section 5); . Table 3a shows the total comparison goods spending available to residents of the SA over the period to 2031 (Table 1 multiplied by Table 2a), and also shows deductions for ‘special forms of trading’ such as online shopping (see Section 5); . Table 4a shows the current comparison goods shopping patterns undertaken by residents in the SA, based on the household survey results (see Section 6); . Table 4b converts the market shares in Table 4a to monetary spending patterns, by applying the total comparison goods expenditure available to the percentage figures, as identified in Table 3a (see Section 6); . Table 5 shows the comparison goods floorspace ‘commitments’ which need to be factored into the capacity assessment (discussed below); . Table 6a presents a summary of the capacity for new comparison goods floorspace, based on the findings of the above tables (discussed below); and . Tables 6b-6d set out alternative floorspace requirement scenarios, based on adjustments to the baseline capacity forecast in Table 7a (discussed below) Step 1 — Population and expenditure growth

7.4 We have set out in Section 5 of this study the anticipated growth in population and comparison goods expenditure to the SA over the study period to 2031. To recap, we anticipate that the population of the SA is expected to increase from 93,424 persons (2011) to 110,872 persons (2031). Comparison goods expenditure available to this population is expected to increase from £240.94m (2011) to £442.46m (2031); having made allowance for SFT discount (as also set out in Table 5.5 in Section 5).

7.5 The population and comparison goods expenditure growth expected to come forward in the SA is summarised in Table 7.1.

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Table 7.1 — Summary of population and comparison goods expenditure available to SA

Comparison goods expenditure Population of SA available to SA (including deduction for SFT)

2013 96,849 £249.75m

2016 99,301 £267.92m

2021 103,541 £311.52m

2026 107,471 £372.09m

2031 110,872 £442.26m Source: Table 1, Table 3a, Appendix 2 Step 2 — Assessment of existing retail provision

7.6 Step 2 of the quantitative need assessment requires the current market shares of centres and stores within the SA to be established, as well as the level of expenditure which is being retained within the SA, and the distribution of this retained expenditure between the existing retail destinations. We have set out this exercise in the previous section of the study, which has been informed by an updated assessment of shopping patterns of residents across the SA.

7.7 Translating these market shares to spending patterns (through applying them to the total comparison goods expenditure of £249.75m available in 2013) shows that, of the £249.75m available to residents in the SA, £91.17m (37 per cent) is spent at stores and destinations within the SA. This retention rate of 37 per cent is carried forward as the basis of the capacity assessment.

Step 3 — Claims on expenditure growth

7.8 The next step is to allow for ‘claims’ on the growth of the retained expenditure (i.e. the £91.17m), which may reduce the amount of expenditure which is available to support new floorspace development. We have previously set out that allowance must be made for ‘special forms of trading’, the most common form of which is online shopping. To this end, we have applied discounts on the total available comparison expenditure, as set out in section 5. The amount in monetary terms of SFT which has been deduced is shown in Table 3a of Appendix 2.

7.9 In addition to SFT there are two further claims on expenditure growth which need to be taken into account: commitments to new floorspace (either schemes under construction at the time of the household survey, or extant planning permissions which would result in additional retail floorspace), and sales density growth (the growth in turnover for existing retailers trading in the SA).

Commitments to new comparison goods floorspace

7.10 We have been advised by the Council of a number of commitments of comparison goods floorspace. These are set out in Table 7.2. For the purposes of our assessment, we have assumed that the

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schemes will come forward by 2016, although in practice larger commitments may not be completed until slightly beyond this point.

7.11 Table 7.2 (derived from Table 5 of Appendix 2) shows that there is a total of 8,094 sq.m net committed comparison goods floorspace for the SA. The vast majority of this is related to the outstanding commitment for the redevelopment and extension of the Belvoir Shopping Centre in Coalville town centre, for which planning permission expires in April 2013. We are not aware of any planning application to extend the timeframe for implementation of this permission having been submitted to the Council, and therefore it is possible that this permission will lapse. On account of this, we have undertaken a scenario test which allows for the lapsing of this consent (which results in a lower ‘claim’ on comparison goods expenditure; this is discussed further below). However, in the event that the permission is extended, it is appropriate to include this commitment in our forecasts.

7.12 Given the in-centre nature (in sequential planning terms) of the Belvoir Shopping Centre application, no retail impact assessment work was undertaken in support of the scheme. We have therefore estimated the turnover of the scheme, should it get developed, as £39.95m per annum. This allows for 70 per cent of the gross internal area floorspace for comparison goods units to be used as retail sales floorspace (as well as 33 per cent of the sales area of the foodstore which forms part of the approved scheme) and assumes a trading density of £6,000 per sq.m, reflecting the fact that the floorspace will be purpose-built modern floorspace and will therefore be expected to trade at an above average level compared to existing retail stock.

7.13 We have also included the comparison goods floorspace permitted as part of approved planning application for a new Tesco store at Hotel Street, Coalville. We understand that 40 per cent of the net sales area of this store (1,301 sq.m net) will be used for the sale of comparison goods. We have assumed a sales density of £5,000 per sq.m for this floorspace, generating a turnover of £6.5m per annum. This application also makes provision for a further 1,122 sq.m gross (equivalent to 785 sq.m net16) of non-food floorspace in separate units adjacent to the Tesco store, which are included as a separate line in Table 7.2 for ease of reference. We have assumed a sales density of £5,000 per sq.m for this floorspace.

7.14 In total we have estimated that the committed comparison goods floorspace amounts to a total ‘claim’ of £50.95m (Table 7.2).

16 Based on a gross: net ratio of 70%

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Table 7.2 — Comparison goods floorspace planning commitments

Sq.m net floorspace Planning application (assumed at 70% of Estimated turnover Commitment reference gross if not otherwise (£m) stated) 1. Belvoir Shopping Centre 09/00359 6,658* 39.95 extension/redevelopment, Coalville 2. Aldi, Nottingham Road, 09/00006 135 0.57 Ashby-de-la-Zouch 3a. Tesco, Hotel Street, 1,301 6.50 Coalville 08/00917 3b. Other floorspace, 785 3.93 Hotel Street, Coalville

Total - 8,094 50.95

Source: Table 5, Appendix 2 *includes comparison goods floorspace within supermarket (assumed at 33% of total net sales area of supermarket)

Sales density growth

7.15 Sales density growth (also known as floorspace productivity growth) is the amount of expenditure which is ‘ring fenced’ for existing floorspace to improve its turnover each year. The CLG Practice Guidance (paragraph B.48) advises that such allowances should be ‘realistic’ and the choice will depend on the ‘capacity of existing floorspace to absorb increased sales’ and should be ‘compatible with assumptions about the growth in per capita expenditure’.

7.16 Growth in sales density is intrinsically linked to overall levels of expenditure growth. Owing to the low levels of comparison goods expenditure growth presently being forecast by the data providers for the short term (as set out in Table 5.4 in Section 5), we do not make any allowance for sales density growth until after 2016. Beyond 2016 we adopt a sales density growth allowance of 1.5 per cent, per annum. This is summarised in Table 7.3.

Table 7.3 — Comparison goods sales density growth allowance

Time period Sales density growth allowance

2013-2016 No allowance

2016 onwards 1.5% per annum

Source: Table 6a-6d, Appendix 2

7.17 This is a blanket sales density growth for all floorspace in the study area. Inevitably, different types of floorspace have different abilities to absorb expenditure growth, with the modern floorspace better equipped than older stock. However, since this is a District-wide study and we are aware that the centres have both modern and older floorspace (with a tendency towards the latter); we consider that such a blanket approach is robust.

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Step 4 — Overtrading of town centre floorspace

7.18 Overtrading refers to both the performance of centres and stores within a catchment when related to benchmark turnovers (for example, a centre of comparable size, or the turnover of a particular store based on applying company average sales densities to the floorspace of that store) but – as highlighted in the CLG Practice Guidance – can also be recognised by indicators such as overcrowding and congestion within stores. The degree to which stores within a catchment area are under-trading or over-trading is therefore highlighted in the practice guidance as both a quantitative and qualitative indicator of need therefore.

7.19 Paragraph 3.16 of the Practice Guidance states that ‘the extent to which the turnover of existing stores significantly exceeds benchmark turnovers may be a qualitative indicator of need, and can in some cases inform quantitative need considerations. For example it may be an expression of the poor range of existing facilities or limited choice of stores and a lack of new floorspace in the locality’.

7.20 Table 7.4 shows the current trading performance of Coalville and Ashby town centres, as the highest order centres in the District, and the only two centres with a significant quantum of comparison goods retail floorspace. The results of the household survey, as shown in Table 4b of Appendix 2, identifies that Coalville town centre draws a turnover of £43.60m from the SA, and Ashby £17.01m. We can calculate the sales density of the town centres by applying these figures to the comparison goods floorspace stock in each of the town centres.

7.21 Experian Goad surveys of Coalville town centre (updated by our site visits in October 2012) identify that there is currently 15,450 sq.m gross comparison goods floorspace in the town centre. If we apply a gross: net ratio of 70 per cent, this produces a total net sales floorspace of 10,815 sq.m net. Therefore, Coalville town centre achieves a turnover of approximately £4,000 per sq.m.

7.22 Ashby town centre contains 9,430 sq.m gross comparison goods floorspace, equivalent to approximately 6,600 sq.m net. Based on the trading performance identified in the household survey, the town centre achieves a turnover of approximately £2,600 per sq.m.

Table 7.4 — trading performance of comparison goods floorspace in Coalville and Ashby town centres

Town centre Comparison Comparison Household Estimated sales goods floorspace goods floorspace survey-derived density (£ per (sq.m gross) (sq.m net) (at turnover of centre sq.m) 70% of gross) (£m)

Coalville 15,450 10,815 43.60 £4,031

Ashby 9,430 6,601 17.01 £2,579

Source: Experian Goad; household survey results

7.23 We do not consider that the figures identified from the household survey identify over-trading of comparison goods floorspace in either centre; rather, particularly in the case of Coalville, they are likely to represent an under-performance, when considering Coalville’s role and function as the highest order centre in the District. Ashby’s turnover per sq.m is also low, in-part reflecting the specialist/boutique retail offer of much of the comparison goods floorspace. It would be expected that if any modern new retail floorspace was to come forward in either centre, the average turnover per sq.m for the centre would show improvement. Whilst some caution is advised in this exercise in the

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absence of detailed net sales area floorspace data for either centre, based on current trends we do not consider there to be any justification for making allowance for over-trading in the comparison goods capacity assessment.

Step 5 — Assessment of quantitative need

7.24 Table 6a of Appendix 2 summarises the quantitative need for additional floorspace within the SA, based on current shopping patterns, and making allowance for the ‘claims’ on expenditure set out above. The table is structured as follows:

. Row A shows the total population of the SA at the interval periods of 2013, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031, derived from Table 1 of Appendix 2. . Row B shows the total comparison goods expenditure available to residents in the SA at the same interval periods, and is derived from Table 3a of Appendix 2. . Row C shows the proportion of the total comparison goods expenditure which is retained by stores and centres within the SA. As noted previously, this amounts to 37 per cent of total expenditure. This is shown in monetary terms in Row D, at the base year of 2013 as well as the equivalent figures for 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 under a ‘no development’ scenario (i.e. assuming that current shopping patterns remain unchanged for the remainder of the study period). . Row E shows the amount of expenditure which ‘leaks’ to destinations outside the SA, and is the product of Row B, less Row D. . Rows F and G show in percentage terms (Row F) and monetary terms (Row G) the amount of inflow into the SA. We have made no allowance for inflow into the SA, and therefore Row G shows no monetary values. . Row H shows the total comparison goods turnover of destinations with the SA at 2013, which is £91.17m (i.e. the retained expenditure, plus no inflow). This is held constant throughout the period to 2031, and the growth in expenditure (the initial surplus) is then shown in Row I. Therefore Row I shows that by 2016 there will be £6.63m of surplus expenditure available to the SA over and above the £91.17m base. By 2031 there has been a more significant growth in the amount of surplus expenditure available owing to the increases in population and therefore available expenditure, with an initial surplus of £70.28m identified. . Rows J and K then summarise the ‘claims’ on available comparison goods expenditure: Row J shows that sales density growth accounts for a ‘claim’ of £7.05m by 2021 (no allowance for this claim is made prior to 2016), and £22.81m by 2031. Row K adds the turnover from extant planning commitments, which is £50.95m at 2016. It is also appropriate to allow for this floorspace to improve its sales density for the remainder of the study period (in line with the sales density growth figures set out at Table 7.3), and therefore by 2031 the extant commitments account for a ‘claim’ of £63.70m. Row L then shows the sum of rows J and K. . Rows M to R then summarise the capacity available in the SA to support new floorspace, and convert this expenditure to physical floorspace requirements: ▫ Row M shows the ‘initial surplus’ expenditure available in the SA over the period to 2031. The initial surplus replicates the figures shown in Row I, i.e. the growth in retained expenditure by centres in the SA over the study period. ▫ Row N then subtracts the ‘claims’ on capacity as summarised in Row L.

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▫ Row O shows the residual expenditure, in monetary terms, which is available to support new comparison goods expenditure within the SA (and thus North West Leicestershire District). It can be seen that, on account of the extant planning commitments, there is an over-supply of comparison goods forecast in the SA until 2016. However, from 2016 onwards, there is a positive amount of residual expenditure, which can be used to support the development of new floorspace. ▫ Row P shows the turnover per sq.m which is used to translate the residual expenditure shown in Row O to floorspace requirements. For the purposes of this assessment, we have adopted a turnover of £4,500 per sq.m at 2016, increasing to £5,626 per sq.m by 2031, in line with the rates set out at Table 7.3. We have set out above that Coalville town centre currently trades at approximately £4,000 per sq.m (we expect this to be the highest sales density of anywhere in the District), and therefore the adoption of this figure allows for some improvement to existing retail stock over the course of the study period, plus the stronger trading performance of new retail floorspace (i.e. the extant planning commitments) to be taken into account. ▫ Row Q shows the net floorspace requirement for comparison goods floorspace in the SA over the period to 2031. Owing to the extant commitments there is an over-supply of floorspace of approximately 9,800 sq.m net in the period to 2016. For the remainder of the study period, there is only a modest requirement for new comparison goods floorspace, of approximately 1,000 sq.m net for the period 2016-21, a further 2,000 sq.m net for the period 2021-26, and 2,300 sq.m for the period 2026-31. The final column of Row Q shows that there is, on aggregate, an oversupply of comparison goods floorspace of approximately 4,600 sq.m over the course of the study period, owing to the existing commitments for new retail comparison goods floorspace. ▫ Finally, using a gross: net ratio of 70 per cent, Row R translates the net floorspace figures set out above to gross requirements.

7.25 The figures shown in Table 6a of Appendix 2, and summarised above, are based on two important assumptions: firstly that shopping patterns will remain unchanged, and secondly that each of the commitments listed above will be developed. As stated previously, these figures should be kept under regular review throughout the study period.

7.26 The summary above sets out the floorspace requirements for the SA based on current shopping patterns and extent planning commitments. However, it is considered that there are a number of reasons as to why the baseline scenario may not come forward in the SA:

. Firstly, should the major outstanding planning commitment — the Belvoir Shopping Centre extension/redevelopment — come forward, it would be expected that the amount of expenditure which is retained within the SA will improve, thereby generating a requirement for additional retail floorspace. . Alternatively, should this planning permission lapse, it will ‘free up’ capacity which can be directed towards provision of new comparison goods floorspace.

7.27 On this basis, we have modelled three alternative retail capacity scenarios, set out at Tables 6b, 6c and 6d of Appendix 2.

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Scenario 2 – improved retention owing to Belvoir Shopping Centre development (Table 6b, Appendix 2)

7.28 In Table 6b of Appendix 2, it is assumed that if the planned improvements to the retail offer in Coalville town centre come forward, fewer residents will shop outside the SA, and the aggregate retention rate will improve accordingly. The securing of quality comparison goods retailers to any new floorspace which is developed will be instrumental in determining the extent to which the retention rate is improved. For the purposes of our assessment we have assumed that the current SA retention rate of 37 per cent will be improved to 45 per cent if significant improvements to the comparison goods retail offer in Coalville come forward. This improvement in the retention rate is modelled to come forward at 2021 onwards, allowing time for the development to be constructed and for new shopping patterns to become established.

7.29 Table 6b shows that under this scenario, by 2016 there remains an over-supply of comparison goods floorspace in the SA, reflecting the figure shown in Table 6a of Appendix 2. In the period 2016-21 there is a much larger positive requirement of approximately 6,500 sq.m net, and this is followed by a further requirement of 3,000 sq.m net in the period 2021-26 and 3,300 sq.m net in the period 2026- 31. This produces an overall requirement of 2,900 sq.m net when making allowance for the current over-supply of floorspace.

Scenario 3 – removal of major planning commitments (Table 6c, Appendix 2)

7.30 In this second alternative scenario, shown at Table 6c of Appendix 2, we assume that the major planning commitments in Coalville (i.e. the Belvoir Shopping Centre redevelopment and the Tesco foodstore scheme) will not come forward. It is considered worthwhile to test this scenario, given that the planning consent associated with the approved Belvoir Shopping Centre application is expected to lapse shortly. In addition, we understand that there is uncertainty over whether the approved scheme for the Tesco foodstore at Hotel Street will come forward in its current form, after the retailer confirmed in July 2012 it would not be seeking to implement the permission17.

7.31 As this permission does not lapse until January 2016, it is possible another foodstore operator could implement the permission. However, we are not aware of any proposals of this nature at present; it is prudent to make provision for the site not coming forward for a foodstore of the scale approved by the extant permission.

7.32 On this basis, the sole commitment which is retained for the purposes of the evaluation in this scenario is the non-food floorspace in the Aldi foodstore in Ashby (estimated comparison goods turnover in 2016 of £0.57m).

7.33 Based on this scenario, there is a total requirement for approximately 9,000 sq.m net new comparison goods floorspace in the SA over the period to 2031, including an immediate requirement of approximately 1,300 sq.m net. This is followed by a requirement for 1,800 sq.m net in the period 2016-21; 2,800 sq.m net in the period 2021-26 and 3,100 sq.m net in the period 2026-31.

Scenario 4 — removal of major planning commitments, plus improved retention rate (Table 6d, Appendix 2)

17 BBC News, 25 July 2012 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-18968571

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7.34 The fourth scenario removes the commitments described above, but plans for an increasing level of expenditure retention over the course of the study period. Clearly, this should be an aspirational target for the Council in order to better meet the shopping needs of residents in the SA. We have assumed that the retention rate will improve from the current figure of 37 per cent to 45 per cent by 2021. In order to secure such an improvement in the retention rate, there will need to be significant investment in new/upgraded comparison goods floorspace stock in the District’s town centres, and in particular Coalville. If this were to come forward, Table 6d shows that a total floorspace requirement of approximately16,500 sq.m net arises over the course of the study period to 2031, with the majority of this requirement arising in the post-2016 period.

Summary of comparison goods floorspace requirements for SA to 2031

7.35 Table 7.5 summarises the floorspace requirements, including and excluding the major planning commitments, derived from Tables 6a to 6d of Appendix 2. These therefore represent the figures which the Council should consider taking forward in their Core Strategy.

Table 7.5 — Summary of comparison goods floorspace requirements to 2031 (all scenarios)

Time period Static retention (minimum Increasing retention (maximum requirement) (sq.m net, requirement) (sq.m net, rounded) rounded)

Scenarios 1 & 2 — including major planning commitments (Tables 6a and 6b, Appendix 2)

2013-16 -9,900 -9,900

2016-21 1,000 6,500

2021-26 (indicative) 2,000 3,000

2026-31 (indicative) 2,300 3,300

Scenarios 3 & 4 — excluding major planning commitments (Tables 6c and 6d, Appendix 2)

2013-16 1,300 1,300

2016-21 1,800 7,300

2021-26 (indicative) 2,700 3,800

2026-31 (indicative) 3,100 4,200

Source: Tables 6a-6d, Appendix 2

Quantitative need for convenience goods floorspace

7.36 The approach for establishing convenience goods capacity is the same as for comparison goods, following the methodology as set out at paragraph 7.2. As with the comparison goods floorspace, we again undertake ‘scenario testing’, in order to provide the Council with a range of options to take forward in its Core Strategy. The ‘static’ retention scenario assumes that the current patterns of shopping will remain unchanged for the remainder of the study period, whilst the increasing retention scenario assumes the delivery of new convenience goods retail floorspace in the SA over the study period.

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7.37 Table 7.6 summarises the population and convenience goods expenditure available to the SA, as previously set out in Section 5.

Table 7.6 — Summary of population and convenience goods expenditure available to SA

Convenience goods Population of SA expenditure available to SA (including deduction for SFT)

2013 96,849 £177.79m

2016 99,301 £182.08m

2021 103,541 £194.35m

2026 107,471 £208.81m

2031 110,872 £223.44m

Source: Table 1, Table 3a, Appendix 2

7.38 As with comparison goods, the assessment of convenience goods retail provision is based on the findings of a household survey into shopping patterns of residents in the SA, the results of which are discussed in Section 6 of this study. This has identified that the SA retains 76 per cent (equivalent to £134.73m at 2013) of available convenience goods expenditure available to the SA, which is considered a reasonable performance given the presence of a number of foodstores a short distance outside the SA boundaries.

7.39 We have taken into account projections on special forms of trading such as online shopping as part of establishing the total amount of expenditure available to residents in the SA. In addition, it is also required to deduct the two further types of expenditure ‘claims’ discussed previously — extant planning commitments, and allowance for sales density growth. Table 7.7 (derived from Table 8 in Appendix 2) sets out the convenience goods planning commitments we are aware of.

Table 7.7 — Convenience goods floorspace planning commitments

Planning application Estimated turnover Commitment Sq.m net floorspace reference (£m) 1. Belvoir Shopping Centre extension/redevelopment, 09/00359 3,136* 42.33 Coalville (foodstore element) 2. Aldi, Nottingham Road, 09/00006 765 3.27 Ashby-de-la-Zouch 3a. Tesco, Hotel Street, 08/00917 1,950 19.60 Coalville

Total - 7,395 65.21

Source: Table 8, Appendix 2 *assumes 67 per cent of foodstore will be used for convenience goods sales

7.40 Table 7.7 shows that there are a number of outstanding convenience goods planning commitments which, if developed, will account for a claim of £65.21m on total available expenditure. The biggest

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commitment (in terms of floorspace and therefore turnover) is the foodstore which will anchor the Belvoir Shopping Centre redevelopment, if this comes forward. Although no indication of the net sales area of this store is provided as part of the planning application, we estimate the store would achieve a turnover in the region of £42.33m18 a second permitted foodstore at Hotel Street will account for a further £19.6m.

7.41 Again, it is also necessary to make allowance for existing retailers improving their sales performance over the course of the study period. The sales density growth rates we adopt are shown in Table 7.8.

Table 7.8 — Convenience goods sales density growth allowance

Time period Sales density growth allowance

2013-2016 No allowance

2016 onwards 0.3% per annum

Source: Table 7, Appendix 2

7.42 In assessing whether existing convenience floorspace in the SA is ‘over-trading’, we have compared the turnover of each major foodstore in the SA (for the purposes of this assessment, we have considered each foodstore with a turnover of greater than £1m19 as identified from the household survey results) in the SA, with the ‘benchmark’ turnover which the store would be expected to achieve if it was trading at company average turnover per sq.m rates. Although this exercise does rely on the use of operator average data in terms of the split between convenience goods and comparison goods floorspace in each store (rather than store-specific figures), and is also based on national averages (therefore taking into account higher sales densities in more affluent parts of the country), it nevertheless provides a robust and industry-accepted method of assessing current trading performance. Table 7.9 shows the current performance of the major foodstores in the SA against operator averages.

18 Based on 75 per cent of the ground floor GIA being used for sales, and no first floor being used for sales (i.e. storage only), based on a sales density of £12,500 per sq.m. Of the 75 per cent ground floor area used for sales, we assume 67 per cent will be used for convenience goods sales and 37 per cent for comparison goods sales. 19 We do not consider that any foodstores which turn over under £1m per annum are likely to act as main / bulk food shopping destinations.

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Table 7.9 — trading performance of foodstores in SA, based on household survey results

Zone Foodstore Estimated Benchmark Household Difference to convenience turnover (based survey- benchmark goods on operator derived (£m) floorspace average turnover (£m) (sq.m net) performance) (£m)

1 Co-Op, Castle 944 7.35 4.47 -2.88 Donington

3 Tesco, Ashby (incl 4,121 46.32 32.99 -13.34 extension)

3 Co-Op, Ashby 983 7.65 5.13 -2.53 (Derby Road)

5 Co-Op, Ibstock 861 6.71 5.27 -1.43

6 Morrisons, Coalville 2,639 34.07 39.01 +4.94

6 Aldi, Coalville 548 3.66 14.89 +11.22

6 Asda, Coalville 823 6.59 5.04 -1.54

6 Co-Op, Coalville 1,175 9.14 3.79 -5.36

6 Lidl, Coalville 615 1.98 33.08 +1.10

Aggregate for SA -9.81

7.43 Table 7.9 shows that there is considerable fluctuation in the trading performance of the most popular food shopping destinations in the SA. It is apparent that the majority of foodstores are trading broadly at, or below, company averages. In particular, the recently-extended Tesco store at Ashby appears to be trading some way below average, although we caution that sales performances of store extensions can be difficult to quantify. Foodstores in Coalville generally appear to be trading more strongly, with the Morrisons store performing approximately £5m above average, and the Aldi store substantially ‘over-trading’ by approximately £11m. However, the two foodstores in the town centre both appear to be ‘under-trading’ against company averages.

7.44 The strong trading performance of the Morrisons and Aldi stores in Coalville is therefore counterbalanced by the weaker trading performance of foodstores in Ashby and elsewhere in the SA relative to company benchmark, and the aggregate position – as shown in the final row of Table 7.9 – is one of under-trading. Therefore in calculating the SA-wide convenience goods capacity forecasts, it is not considered appropriate to make any allowance for over-trading of existing convenience floorspace.

7.45 Table 9a of Appendix 2 summarises the quantitative requirement for additional convenience goods floorspace in the SA over the period to 2031. The structure of the table follows that of Table 7a, as described above, and takes into account the convenience goods planning commitments and growth in sales efficiency as reviewed in Tables 7.7 and 7.8.

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7.46 Owing to the substantial amount of committed convenience goods floorspace, Table 9a identifies that there is no requirement for additional convenience goods floorspace in the SA in the period to 2016. Instead, Table 9a identifies a current over-supply of floorspace in the region of 5,000 sq.m net. Modest positive requirements are identified for the period 2016-2021, 2021-2026 and 2026-31: for each of these periods there is a requirement for between 500 and 600 sq.m net floorspace, however this is insufficient to negate the short-term over-supply. Therefore, under this scenario, there would be an aggregate over-supply of floorspace of approximately 3,000 sq.m net. This means that, if both of the approved foodstore schemes come forward, there is no requirement for any further convenience goods floorspace in the SA over the period to 2031; the existing and permitted network of foodstores will be sufficient to meet local needs.

7.47 As with the comparison goods capacity forecasts, we have undertaken a number of ‘scenario tests’ to assist the Council in providing a range of potential capacity forecasts, given the possibility that the baseline scenario (i.e. the approved comitments) might not come forward. These are set out at Tables 9b, 9c and 9d of Appendix 2, and the findings are summarised below:

Scenario 2 — improved retention owing to new foodstore developments (Table 9b, Appendix 2)

7.48 Scenario 2 assumes that owing to the development of two new retail foodstores in Coalville, the aggregate retention rate for the SA will improve, as fewer residents choose to shop outside Coalville for their food shopping. The results of the household survey identify that the Coalville zone currently retains 92 per cent of expenditure, with the other zones which look towards Coalville for their food shopping needs (largely zones 2, 5 and 7) retaining 85, 94 and 88 per cent of convenience goods expenditure respectively. Some residents in these zones are therefore currently undertaking convenience goods shopping outside the SA. On this basis there is some scope for an improvement in the SA-wide retention rate if quality new provision was to come forward in Coalville town centre.

7.49 Therefore in Scenario 2 we model an improvement in the SA-wide retention rate from the current figure of 76 per cent, to 80 per cent by 2021. This is considered a realistic level of ‘uplift’ in retained expenditure which could be expected to arise as a result of enhanced provision in Coalville.

7.50 Table 9b shows that under this scenario, the current over-supply of floorspace (owing to the extant planning permissions) remains for the period 2013-16, but thereafter there are positive requirements of 1,100 sq.m net (2016-21); 600 sq.m net (2021-26) and a further 600 sq.m net (2026-31). However, the aggregate position for the period 2013-31 remains an oversupply of floorspace in the region of 2,300 sq.m net. In other words, as previously, if both of the permitted foodstores in Coalville town centre come forward, there will be no need for further convenience goods floorspace provision over the Core Strategy period.

7.51 However, this scenario is based on the assumption that both of the major foodstore commitments for Coalville town centre will come forward. As set out above, there is uncertainty over the likelihood of this, and therefore in Scenarios 3 and 4 we assume that neither of the extant planning permissions is implemented.

Scenario 3 – removal of major planning commitments (Table 9c, Appendix 2)

7.52 In this scenario, we remove extant planning permissions for the foodstores at the Belvoir Shopping Centre and the Tesco store at Hotel Street, Coalville. The only convenience goods planning commitment which remains is the Aldi store in Ashby, which has an estimated turnover of £3.27m at

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2016, increasing to £3.42m at 2031. The scenario assumes that the current shopping patterns in the SA will remain unchanged throughout the remainder of the study period — i.e. the retention rate of 76 per cent will remain constant.

7.53 Table 9c of Appendix 2 shows that under this scenario, there is a requirement for 1,800 sq.m net additional convenience goods floorspace over the study period to 2031. There is no requirement prior to 2016, after this there is a requirement of between 500 and 600 sq.m net for each of the interval periods to 2031. This would suggest by 2031 there is a requirement for one additional main / bulk foodstore in the District, with approximately 1,800 sq.m net convenience goods sales.

Scenario 4 – removal of major planning commitments, plus increasing expenditure retention (Table 9d, Appendix 2)

7.54 Finally, the fourth scenario removes the commitments described above, but plans for an increasing level of expenditure retention over the course of the study period, working on the assumption that provision will be improved for residents in the SA (i.e., through the development of a new foodstore), and therefore the amount of expenditure leakage will be reduced. As under Scenario 2, it is assumed that the expenditure retention rate will increase from the current figure of 76 per cent to 80 per cent from 2021 onwards. For the retention rate to improve to this extent, it is mostly likely that a new foodstore would be required to be developed in the SA, in order to deliver the significant changes to residents’ existing shopping patterns. Other factors, such as less of a willingness of residents to travel outside the SA for their convenience shopping, or extensions to existing supermarket facilities, might also bring about a more limited increase in retained expenditure. If an improvement to the retention rate of the degree set out above were to come forward, the amount of convenience goods floorspace required would increase to approximately 2,500 sq.m net over the period 2013-31, although there remains no requirement for new floorspace until beyond 2016.

7.55 The convenience goods floorspace figures presented in Scenarios 3 and 4 suggest that there would likely be a need for one medium-sized foodstore in the SA over the period to 2031, if the existing commitments do not come forward. The requirements arising are as follows:

. No requirement prior to 2016 . Between 500 and 1,100 sq.m net between 2016 and 2021 . Between 600 and 700 sq.m net between 2021 and 2026; and . Between 600 and 700 sq.m net between 2026 and 2031.

7.56 Table 7.10 summarises the floorspace requirements, including and excluding the major planning commitments, derived from Tables 9a to 9d of Appendix 2. These therefore represent the figures which the Council should consider taking forward in their Core Strategy.

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Table 7.10 — Summary of convenience goods floorspace requirements to 2031 (all scenarios)

Static retention (minimum Increasing retention (maximum requirement) (sq.m net, requirement) (sq.m net, rounded) rounded)

Scenarios 1 & 2 — including major planning commitments (Tables 7a and 7b)

2013-16 -4,600 -4,600

2016-21 400 1,100

2021-26 (indicative) 600 600

2026-31 (indicative) 600 600

Scenarios 3 & 4 — excluding major planning commitments (Tables 6c and 6d)

2013-16 0 0

2016-21 500 1,100

2021-26 (indicative) 600 700

2026-31 (indicative) 600 700

Source: Tables 9a-9d, Appendix 2

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8 QUALITATIVE NEED FOR ADDITONAL RETAIL FACILITIES IN THE STUDY AREA

Methodology

8.1 CLG’s Practice Guidance identifies that qualitative considerations should also be taken into account when assessing the future retailing requirements of a particular area. Whilst the need for evidence base studies to assess quantitative need is not made explicit in the NPPF, given the continued validity of the Practice Guidance as a supporting document to the NPPF, we consider below the qualitative need for enhanced provision in the study area.

8.2 CLG’s practice guidance provides further detail on what represents qualitative need. Since it is a subjective concept, a number of factors can apply. But the practice guidance outlines five frequently identified factors, namely:

. gaps in existing provision; . consumer choice and competition; . overtrading; . location specific issues; . the quality of the existing provision.

8.3 Assessments of qualitative need should take these factors into account. Therefore, we rely on the assessment of the existing network of centres (Section 4), the analysis of spending patterns (Section 6) and other data relevant to the above five factors.

Gaps in Provision

8.4 The practice guidance explains that such an assessment involves the analysis of patterns of retail provision, taking account of retail catchments and levels of accessibility. In assessing whether there are any gaps in provision, it is appropriate to review the spending patterns for the study area, as we have set out in Section 6.

Comparison Shopping

8.5 We have established that the SA achieves a retention rate of 37 per cent — so just over one-third of all available spending on comparison goods to residents in the SA is actually spent within the SA. There is evidence that this performance has improved relative to the position at the time of the previous retail study, which identified an equivalent retention rate of 32 per cent. It would appear that much of this improved retention rate can be accounted for by an improved trading performance of Ashby town centre, as well as the new ‘bulky goods’ provision on the outskirts of Ashby, which has assisted in improving the localised retention rate for this zone. Whilst this improvement in the overall retention rate for the SA is positive, we consider that considerable scope still exists for further improvement over the course of the Core Strategy period. Indeed, the SA will need to work hard to retain these current market shares given the strength of provision in surrounding retail centres.

8.6 It should be noted from the outset that it is unrealistic for any catchment area to retain 100 per cent of available expenditure. Even in catchments which draw trade from a wide geographical area, there will always be residents who choose to travel to a particular destination for their shopping. However,

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as reflected in our ‘increasing retention’ capacity forecast, there is potential for more residents in the SA to actually spend their money in the SA; and if this takes place, there will be a requirement for additional floorspace to support the increased level of expenditure which will come about.

8.7 Coalville, as the highest order centre in the District, should continue to be the focus of comparison goods shopping activity in the District over the course of the study period. However, we have identified two principal problems with the current retail offer: firstly, it is concentrated at the lower-end of the retail spectrum, with relatively few mid- and upper-end retailers trading in the town. When compared to other sub-regional centres across the East Midlands, the quality and breadth of the offer is therefore relatively constrained. Secondly, within this poor retail ‘profile’ there are a number of gaps in the retail offer: the clothing & footwear sector is particularly poorly represented in the town, as is the DIY sector in the Coalville area (although realistically this latter shortcoming is unlikely to be addressed through development in the town centre), and there are a number of more niche qualitative gaps in the offer (bookstores, gift shops, etc). Combined, these reasons explain why Coalville does not retain significant market share: whilst it generally meets some day-to-day shopping needs, the gaps in the offer mean that residents who want anything beyond this may be forced to travel to a location further afield.

8.8 There is therefore a need for Coalville town centre to broaden the quality of its retail offer, and in particular attract more middle/upper-end retailers. The demand for such units is likely to be tempered by the proximity to other centres such as Loughborough, Leicester and Burton. However, if suitable provision was to come forward (i.e. in terms of an improved quality of retail premises), we would anticipate there to be some demand from retailers, particularly given the growth agenda of the town. There may also be demand for retailers currently present in the centre to trade from larger premises, given the relatively constrained size of the existing units in the prime shopping area.

8.9 Ashby is a second-tier centre in the Council’s emerging centre hierarchy and appears to have a retail offer which complements, rather than directly competes with, the current offer of Coalville. Again, there are some gaps in the retail offer, however the recent extension of the Tesco store and the new small retail warehouse development have addressed some of the gaps in provision which were apparent in the town. The comparison goods offer in the town centre meets most residents’ day-to- day needs, and the provision of a good range of clothing and specialist boutique retailers is an asset to the town. We do not therefore consider there to be any significant gaps in provision in the comparison goods retail offer in Ashby town centre.

8.10 Elsewhere in the District, we do not consider that the smaller centres require the provision of significant amount of additional comparison goods floorspace — these centres largely serve local shopping needs, and demand is accordingly likely to be more limited. Applications for new comparison goods floorspace should be treated on their own merits, but in line with national policy guidance, should be directed towards the town centres in the first instance in preference to edge/out- of-centre sites. Applications should only be approved if they are of a scale appropriate to the role and function of the centre, as set out in the retail hierarchy of the District.

Convenience goods

8.11 Turning to convenience goods provision, both Coalville and Ashby are currently served by one ‘main’ foodstore, and a number of smaller foodstores, which are mostly expected to cater for top-up/basket shopping trips. Ashby benefits from a good-sized Co-Operative foodstore in the town centre, plus the

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recently-extended Tesco store on the outskirts of the town. Planning permission also exists for a discount foodstore adjacent to the Tesco store, with an application for a second discount foodstore on a nearby site presently undetermined. If one or both of these stores are constructed, we do not consider there to be any significant gaps in convenience goods provision in the town.

8.12 The long-established Morrisons store on the northern edge of Coalville is the town’s main food shopping destination. It is the most popular food shopping destination in the town by some degree, and none of the smaller stores presently trading in the town offer a viable alternative ‘main’ food shopping destination. Evidence from the household survey (discussed further below) suggests that the store is trading strongly.

8.13 As identified in the previous section, there currently two extant planning permissions for large new foodstores in Coalville town centre — a foodstore to anchor the redevelopment of the Belvoir Shopping Centre, and a 3,251 sq.m net Tesco foodstore on land at Hotel Street. Should either (or both) of these schemes get constructed, this will meet what is considered to be a qualitative need for an additional medium to large-sized foodstore to meet the needs of residents in Coalville.

8.14 However, if these schemes are not progressed, there is a qualitative need for a new convenience goods retail store which is of a sufficient size to meet ‘main’/weekly food shopping needs. Reflecting national policy guidance, this should be directed towards Coalville town centre in the first instance. The provision of a medium/large foodstore within the town centre boundary (broadly speaking of a comparable size to the Morrisons store in Coalville), with strong connectivity to the existing retail offer, would also assist in improving the vitality and viability of the town centre as a whole. We do not consider there to be a need for more than one new foodstore of this size in the District over the period to 2031 in the event that the extant commitments do not come forward.

8.15 In respect of the smaller centres, Castle Donington and Ibstock benefit from reasonable-sized Co- Operative foodstores which enable many residents to undertake main and top-up shopping trips. It is not considered that there is a qualitative gap in provision in either of these centres. In Measham, the existing foodstores (a Co-Operative and a Tesco Express) are geared towards meeting top up shopping trips only, and there maybe merit in seeking to provide a larger foodstore (of comparable size to the Co-Op stores in Castle Donington and Ibstock, for example) to better meet the shopping needs of residents in this area.

8.16 Similarly for residents in zone 7, whilst much of this area benefits from good proximity to Coalville, proposals to enhance the convenience goods retail provision of a scale appropriate to the centre should be supported.

Consumer choice and competition

8.17 The second qualitative indicator is consumer choice and competition. Providing better competition and consumer choice is considered to be a key method of promoting the vitality and viability of town centres.

Comparison goods

8.18 In respect of comparison goods shopping, many of the comments set out in the indicator above are also applicable here. Coalville requires a more diverse comparison goods sector, to broaden the range of the offer away from value/lower-end uses. This will have the effect of improving consumer choice, and thereby reducing the amount of expenditure leakage to destinations outside the

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catchment area. In order to attract a broader scope of retailers to the town, investment is needed to provide larger footplate, modern units, as well as investment in upgrading existing stock. We discuss this further below.

8.19 Ashby benefits from a diverse comparison goods sector, and a future strategy of the town performing a complementary role to Coalville, through particularly promotion and strengthening of its independent retail sector should be considered. This will enable Ashby to be marketed as an ‘alternative’ to Coalville whilst at the same time supporting the regeneration aspirations of Coalville town centre. However, this should not be at the expense of the day-to-day comparison goods shopping requirements of residents of Ashby being met.

Convenience goods

8.20 In terms of convenience goods shopping, Coalville town centre benefits from poor consumer choice at present. Whilst the recent refurbishment of the Netto store (now trading as an Asda Supermarket) represents a positive investment in the town centre, the store’s peripheral location and relatively limited range of goods ensures that it does not particularly contribute to the vitality and viability of the centre as a whole. Similarly, the Co-Op/Iceland stores on Bridge Road are poorly related to the rest of the retail offer, and are housed in dated premises which require investment. The household survey results indicate that none of these stores are trading particularly strongly, and we believe this is partly likely to be a consequence of their poor relation to the rest of the centre’s retail offer (which in turn requires strengthening, as set out above). The provision of a larger foodstore with good connectivity to the rest of the town centre retail offer will have positive implications for both consumer choice and the wider regeneration of Coalville town centre.

Over-trading Comparison goods

8.21 In the previous section we have set out that comparison goods floorspace in both Coalville and Ashby town centres appears to be trading at below-average levels, particularly in the case of Coalville relative to its position in the retail hierarchy. On this basis we have not made any allowance in the capacity forecasts for over-trading of existing floorspace stock. However, as we set out above, there are other qualitative factors which must be taken into account, including the need to improve consumer choice, and for the retail offer to effectively meet the needs of local residents. To this end, the delivery of modern floorspace in the District’s town centres — with a particular focus on Coalville — is a priority, in order to improve patronage and footfall, and consequently improve trading performance.

Convenience goods

8.22 In qualitative terms, the question of whether the over-trading of foodstores represents a need is more difficult to justify. The CLG guidance is that the use of benchmarks should not be treated in isolation, and to assess the over-trading position adequately more detailed evidence is needed in respect of the trading performance of each store.

8.23 It would appear that there is some over-trading of stores in the SA at present, but this is chiefly restricted to the Morrisons and Aldi stores in Coalville, the latter of which in particular appears to be trading well in excess of its ‘benchmark’ level. However, other stores in the town, including those in the town centre, are under-trading. The results of the household survey also identify that there is

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currently no over-trading of foodstores taking place in Ashby, and across the SA as a whole, the aggregate position is one of under-trading.

8.24 We would expect the over-trading of the Morrisons (and to an extent the Aldi) stores to be mitigated by the delivery of a new foodstore in Coalville town centre, should either of the permitted schemes come forward. As noted previously, if consent for these schemes lapses or is not implemented, the delivery of a new foodstore in the Coalville town centre should be considered a priority, and will achieve a number of positive benefits.

8.25 It is not known if there are aspirations for Morrisons to extend their existing store in Coalville. Any extension to the store would be expected to reduce the over-trading, and should therefore be considered on its merits. Given its out-of-centre location in sequential planning terms, any assessment would need to satisfy the sequential and impact ‘tests’ set out in the NPFF, including an assessment of the impact on the delivery of a town centre foodstore scheme.

8.26 It is recommended that in order to carry out a detailed assessment of the qualitative over-trading of foodstores in the District, a repeat visit assessment should be made to the major foodstores, considering factors such as:

. The length of queues at checkouts; . The number of checkouts which are open in the store (i.e. are all checkouts open and there are still queues); . The proportion of spaces in the car park which are occupied (where relevant); . Whether shelves in the store are having to be restocked during busy periods whilst the store is open, and whether there are noticeable gaps in the product ranges available due to these items selling out.

Location-specific needs

8.27 CLG’s practice guidance refers to location specific needs and specifically states that the Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) provide useful measures of deprivation. Furthermore, PPS4 affords more weight to qualitative deficiencies in deprived areas. It is important to understand the IMD for the local geography and its relationship with any qualitative deficiencies, such as a lack of access to certain shops or services.

8.28 The IMD 2007 is based on the small area geography known as Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) and is the most recent dataset available. Each LSOA has between 1,000 and 3,000 people living in it with an average population of 1,500 people. There are 32,482 LSOAs in England. The LSOA ranked 1 by the IMD 2007 is the most deprived, and that ranked 32,482 is the least deprived. Within each LSOA deprivation is measured by seven measures or indicators known as domains. These comprise:

. Income deprivation: this domain looks at, amongst other things, the proportion of people in Income Support Households or Child Tax Credit Households. . Employment deprivation: this domain measures the involuntary exclusion of the working age population from the world of work. . Health deprivation and disability: this domain identifies areas with relatively high rates of people who die prematurely or whose quality of life is impaired by poor health or who are disabled.

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. Education, skills and training deprivation: this domain measures deprivation in educational attainment, skills and training for children, young people and the working age population. . Barriers to housing and services: this domain measures ‘geographical barriers’ to housing and services, as well as ‘wider barriers’ which includes issues such as affordability. . Living environment deprivation: this domain focuses on deprivation with respect to the characteristics of the local environment, both within and beyond the home. . Crime: this domain measures the incidence of recorded crime for four major crime themes, thus representing the occurrence of personal and material victimization at a small area level.

8.29 Figure 3 shows the IMD map for North West Leicestershire. The ‘heat map’ shows that most parts of North West Leicestershire do not suffer from high levels of deprivation, and parts of zones 3 and 4 are within the top 20 per cent least-deprived LSOAs in the country. However the eastern part of zone 7, covering Whitwick and the Greenhill area of Coalville, is in the 20 per cent most deprived in the country. Therefore, it is important that there is sufficient coverage in this area to meet day-to-day shopping needs. Many residents in this area benefit from reasonable proximity to the Morrisons store in Coalville for bulk shopping trips. Residents in Greenhill have access to two small Co-Op stores at Cropston Drive and Meadow Lane.

8.30 Provision is more limited in Whitwick, and the provision of a small supermarket, centrally-located within the village, would assist in meeting local-level shopping needs. The Council should therefore consider applications for such development favourably, providing they are of an appropriate scale.

8.31 The ‘heat map’ shown above does not indicate a particular requirement for additional facilities to meet localised levels of deprivation elsewhere in North West Leicestershire.

8.32 Comparison goods shopping needs should be focussed on the existing hierarchy of centres and directing comparison goods to standalone local locations would undermine this hierarchy. Applications for the development of new comparison goods floorspace should therefore be directed towards existing centres in the first instance.

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Figure 3 — IMD ‘heat map’ for North West Leicestershire

Source: IMD data

Quality of Provision

8.33 CLG’s Practice Guidance states that the quality of provision is highly subjective. The key issues include the age, condition and layout of existing facilities and whether the facilities meet operators’ requirements or consumer expectations. There is a need for centres to be ‘fit for purpose’ and capable of meeting the needs of the enlarged residential populations which will be using them over the Plan period.

Comparison goods shopping

8.34 The quality of provision across the District varies. We have identified in this report that Coalville town centre generally benefits from poor quality retail stock — much of it is dated, and in need of internal and external refurbishment. The current limitations with the retail property offer restrict both the appeal and viability of the centre as a retailing location. In particular, there is a need for larger units,

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to better meet the needs of retailers, and enable a wider range of stock to be traded. The amalgamation of units in order to create larger footprint units and attract a stronger tenant mix should be considered.

8.35 This needs to be undertaken as part of a comprehensive redevelopment of the Belvoir Shopping Centre, to improve the appearance of the centre, making it a more attractive shopping environment. The extant permission for the redevelopment of the centre makes provision for this; if this permission lapses, the Council may wish to consider a series of short term measures to improve the physical appearance of the centre, although the comprehensive redevelopment and potential extension of the centre should remain the priority in the medium-to-longer term.

8.36 Elsewhere in Coalville town centre the quality of provision is also in need of improvement in many areas; many of the units are small and therefore inefficient, and a number would benefit from improvements to their external appearance, particularly along High Street / Hotel Street.

8.37 There is also a need for bigger unit sizes, and modernisation/refurbishment of existing uses, in order for them to better meet the needs of modern retailers, and secure further investment in the town. These improvements need to form part of a wider regeneration of the town centre, with a particular focus on improving the visual appearance of the primary shopping area focused on the Belvoir Shopping Centre. Whilst there is an extant planning permission for these works to take place, in the event that this permission lapses, securing a suitable alternative scheme should be considered a priority for the Council over the course of the Plan period.

8.38 In Ashby, the quality of provision is generally reasonable, and there is a mixture of reasonable sized units. Whilst the retail property offer is again towards smaller units, this appears to reflect retailer demand for premises. Some prominent units have benefited from recent investment (such as the former Woolworths store, now trading as a Costa). Applications for amalgamation of units to support new investment in the town should be supported, in order to deliver a good mixture of retail premises, providing the scale is appropriate to the town.

8.39 In the smaller centres, the quality of provision is considered generally adequate in the context of the role and function of the centres. The retail units are typically smaller, historic units, often with residential or other uses above. There are few examples of units in particularly poor condition, and indeed in most instances the property offer in the centres is a good match with the type of demand which exists. Any applications for the development of modern floorspace in the centres of Castle Donington, Ibstock and Measham should be supported, provided it is of an appropriate scale to the role and function of the centres (i.e. of a scale that meets day-to-day comparison goods shopping needs).

Convenience goods shopping

8.40 The quality of existing provision is generally considered to be reasonable. There has been investment in stores in the District in recent years by Asda (Coalville), Tesco (Ashby) and the Co- Operative (Ashby), and the large Morrisons store in Coalville appears generally fit-for-purpose. These stores can be expected to provide a satisfactory shopping experience for customers therefore.

8.41 The Co-Op/Iceland store at Bridge Street trades from relatively dated premises, with poor connectivity to the rest of the retail offer. We are not aware of any proposals for the redevelopment of this store.

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9 CONCLUSIONS AND STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS

9.1 In this section of the report we draw together the findings of the previous chapters to draw conclusions and make strategic recommendations for the Council to take forward in their Core Strategy.

Summary of findings

9.2 In Section 2 of this study we have summarised the current national and local planning policy context which this study has been prepared under. Current national policy, as set out in the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), promotes the vitality and viability of town centres and identifies them as the most suitable destination for retail, leisure, cultural and other ‘town centre’ uses. This supports the wider government objectives for sustainable economic growth. The NPPF also identifies the need for local planning authorities to have a robust and up-to-date evidence base to inform Local Plan development, which this study contributes towards in respect of retail matters.

9.3 We have also considered the local planning policy context. Of particular note in this respect is the revised centre hierarchy which the Council is progressing in its Core Strategy. Policy CS7 of the emerging Core Strategy directs new development, including facilities and services, to the most sustainable locations in accordance with the settlement hierarchy. Coalville Urban Area is at the top of this hierarchy and subsequently is where the majority of new housing, employment and retail development can be anticipated to be located. The Rural Centres (Ashby de la Zouch, Castle Donington, Ibstock, Measham and Kegworth) are identified as locations for the remaining development, with very minor levels of development acceptable in Sustainable Villages. This is a change from the adopted Local Plan policy, which places Coalville and Ashby jointly at the top of the hierarchy of the District.

9.4 The study also sets out the local and national context within which the study has been prepared. Unlike the previous retail capacity assessments for the District, the study has been prepared at a time of continued economic downturn. Whilst some parts of the retail market continue to perform strongly, many parts of the sector are struggling, and the implications of this are often particularly noticeable in the country’s network of smaller town and district centres. Comparison goods retailers are increasingly focusing on a network of larger centres for their representation, however demand continues to be strong in smaller centres for convenience goods retailers. Forecasts on the amount of expenditure which will be directed towards ‘special forms of trading’ such as online shopping have also significantly increased since the previous study, and it is now expected that ‘special forms of trading’ will account for just over 16 per cent of total comparison goods expenditure by 2031, and almost 5 per cent of convenience goods expenditure.

9.5 This study has undertaken a full assessment of the vitality and viability of the main centres in the District — Coalville, Ashby-de-la, Zouch, Castle Donington, Ibstock and Measham. These centres (along with Kegworth) represent the highest order centres in the Council’s emerging Core Strategy and are the focus for most of the Council’s housing growth over the Core Strategy period. Consequently, it is important that the centres are able to adequately meet the needs of both the existing and future residential populations, without them having to travel further afield.

9.6 The assessments have shown that Coalville town centre is under-performing against a number of ‘health check’ indicators at present. Whilst the town centre continues to meet day-to-day

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convenience and comparison goods shopping functions, plus the service needs of local residents, adequately, the overall picture is one of a centre ‘getting by’, and struggling for vitality and viability in a number of areas. In particular, the high number of vacant units throughout the centre can be considered cause for concern. A priority for the Council should be to reduce the number of vacant units in the centre, through supporting ‘pop up’/temporary leasing of units where appropriate, for example. This will serve to enhance the retail diversity of the centre and encourage footfall.

9.7 There is also a clear need to improve the quality of the retail offer in Coalville town centre. There are a number of qualitative gaps in the retail offer, and the representation in the clothing & footwear sectors is particularly poor. It would appear that Coalville is currently functioning as a ‘service’ destination rather than a ‘shopping’ destination; if it is to effectively meet the needs of its substantially enlarged residential population in future years, this balance will need to be redressed. The provision of modern shopping units in a better quality shopping environment would assist in delivering this.

9.8 The foodstores currently trading at the edges of the town centre do relatively little to enhance the overall vitality and viability of the centre, and the provision of a larger foodstore well-positioned within the town centre would be expected to further enhance the vitality and viability of the centre.

9.9 Conversely, Ashby town centre appears to generally be performing strongly at present. The centre scores well against most ‘health check’ indicators, with low numbers of vacant units, a well maintained town centre with a good diversity of uses including a suitable sized foodstore, and a comparison goods offer which is a balanced mix of national multiples and specialist independent retailers. Although some of the national multiples present in the centre are towards the lower end of the spectrum, this is balanced by a number of higher-end independent retailers. The leisure offer – and in particular restaurants and café provision – would benefit from further enhancement but recent openings by ASK and Costa in the centre would suggest demand is reasonable, should suitable premises arise.

9.10 Of the smaller centres, we consider that whilst Castle Donington is generally performing adequately, Ibstock would benefit from a number of improvements to its vitality and viability. There is a particular need to diversify the retail offer to take the focus away from take-away and similar lower-grade uses, and better meet the needs of local residents. Measham also appears to be performing adequately, but suffers from a lack of foodstore provision in the town centre.

9.11 In section 5 of the study, we set out the anticipated growth in population and expenditure of residents of the study area (SA) which has been used as the basis of our assessment. The SA reflects the administrative boundaries of North-West Leicestershire District. We anticipate that the overall population of the SA will increase from 93,424 persons in 2011, to 110,872 persons in 2031 – a growth of 17,448 persons. The growth in population will also deliver a growth in the amount of comparison (non-food) and convenience (food) shopping expenditure in the SA, and by 2031 it is expected that total comparison goods expenditure (having made allowance for ‘special forms of trading’) will amount to £442.26m (increased from £249.75m in 2013) and total convenience goods expenditure will amount to £223.44m (increased from £177.79 in 2013).

9.12 However, not all of this expenditure is available to support the development of new retail floorspace — only the proportion of the total expenditure which is ‘retained’ in the SA can be used to support this. To establish this, a household survey of shopping patterns was undertaken across the SA in

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October 2012. This found that 37 per cent of comparison goods expenditure is retained within the SA, and 76 per cent of convenience goods expenditure. It is considered that there is considerable scope for improvement of this, particularly in respect of the comparison goods figure. Positively however, it would appear that there has been some improvement in the comparison goods retention rate relative to the previous study, largely on account of an improved performance of Ashby (both town centre and the development of a small retail warehouse facility on the outskirts of the town). However, the SA continues to lose expenditure to surrounding destinations (such as Loughborough, Fosse Park and Leicester), and the reduction of this expenditure leakage should be considered a priority. Section 6 of the study discusses the current shopping patterns of residents in greater detail.

9.13 In Section 7 we set out the retail capacity forecasts arising as a result of the population and expenditure growth in the SA. Of particular note is the fact that there are a number of ‘commitments’ for new retail floorspace, which seek to reduce the capacity for new retail floorspace across the SA. The two commitments which account for the most substantial expenditure ‘claim’ are the redevelopment of the Belvoir Shopping Centre in Coalville town centre, and permission for a new Tesco foodstore at Hotel Street, Coalville. If both of these developments come forward, on aggregate there is no requirement for additional floorspace (either convenience or comparison goods) across the SA over the study period. Whilst positive floorspace requirements come about in the interval periods post-2016, these are cancelled out by over-provision of floorspace in the short- term.

9.14 However, there is uncertainty as to whether, in practice, these developments will come forward. Planning permission for the Belvoir Shopping Centre redevelopment expires in April 2013, and there is presently no application submitted for renewal of consent. The Hotel Street application benefits from a longer consent, however it is understood that Tesco do not intend to implement this permission (although it could be in theory be implemented by another operator). We therefore set out alternative capacity forecasts for the SA, based on the scenario that these developments do not come forward. Should this scenario arise, the following floorspace requirements have been identified for the SA:

. Between 9,000 and 16,500 sq.m net comparison goods floorspace (2013-31) . Between 1,800 and 2,500 sq.m net convenience goods floorspace (2013-31)

9.15 Finally in Section 8, we identify the qualitative requirements for improvements to the retail offer in centres across the District. This identifies a need for Coalville to broaden the quality of the retail offer in Coalville, to attract more middle/upper-end retailers to the town and reduce the extent of expenditure leakage. There is also the need for improved foodstore provision in the town centre, and widespread refurbishment/modernisation of the existing retail stock. There are fewer areas of qualitative improvement in the retail offer required for Ashby. We also set out that Whitwick would benefit from the provision of a small foodstore to assist in meeting day-to-day shopping needs in an area of high deprivation.

Strategic recommendations

9.16 Based on the findings of this study, we identify the following recommendations for each of the main centres in the SA:

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Centre Strategic recommendations

Coalville . Seek improvement to comparison goods retail offer as a matter of priority, either through the implementation of the Belvoir Shopping Centre permission, or a suitable alternative scheme if permission for the Belvoir Shopping Centre redevelopment / extension is not permitted. . Support applications for modernisation / improvement of units elsewhere in the centre, including amalgamation of units to create larger footplate stores. . The Council should work with partners, including landowners, to address vacant units in the town centre. Temporary/’pop up’ shops should be encouraged. . Support the delivery of a new foodstore in Coalville town centre, if current applications for the Belvoir Shopping Centre site and/or Hotel Street site are not implemented. Any new foodstore should be well- located to the existing retail offer and strong linkages should be supported in order to assist in the wider regeneration of the town centre. . If the extant permission for the Belvoir Shopping Centre and Hotel Street sites do not come forward, as the highest order centre in the District (under emerging Core Strategy policy), seek to direct the majority of the SA’s resulting comparison and convenience goods capacity requirements (identified at Tables 6c/6d and 9c/d of Appendix 2) to supporting the regeneration of Coalville town centre. . Seek to improve the commercial leisure / services offer in the town centre (particularly in terms of cafes/restaurants) . Seek to improve the environmental quality of the centre, including the softening of the visual appearance of the existing Belvoir Shopping Centre, and improvements to shopfronts, footpaths and public realm throughout the centre as a whole. . The Council may wish to direct part of the comparison goods floorspace requirement (subject to expiry of the Belvoir Shopping Centre permission) towards improving ‘bulky goods’ retail provision in Coalville (in particular DIY goods), of a suitable scale relative to the role and function of the town, and controlled by appropriate conditions. Any applications for such development outside the town centre should demonstrate full compliance with the retail ‘tests’ set out in the NPPF. . Any applications for new retail and leisure development over 1,000 sq.m gross for locations outside Coalville’s defined town centre should submit a retail impact assessment.

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Ashby-de-la- . Applications for additional comparison goods retail floorspace within, Zouch or well related to, the existing town centre offer should be supported providing they are of an appropriate scale. The Council may wish to allocate a limited proportion of the overall comparison goods floorspace requirements which arise for the District to supporting new comparison shopping floorspace in Ashby (subject to the committed floorspace in Coalville not coming forward). . It is not considered there is a quantitative or qualitative need for any additional large-scale convenience goods floorspace provision to serve the needs of the town, although enhanced consumer choice in the town centre should be supported. . The independent retail sector should be supported and enhanced as an alternative to the more mainstream offer of Coalville, although this should not be at the expense of day-to-day shopping needs of residents being met. . Any applications for new retail and leisure development over 1,000 sq.m gross for locations outside Ashby’s defined town centre should submit a retail impact assessment.

Castle . Applications for enhanced retail/services provision should be Donington supported provided they are of an appropriate scale to the role and function of the centre. . Any applications for new retail and leisure development over 500 sq.m gross for locations outside Castle Donington’s defined centre should submit a retail impact assessment.

Ibstock . Applications for enhanced retail/services provision should be supported provided they are of an appropriate scale to the role and function of the centre. . Applications which seek to redevelop existing retail units into residential or other units should be resisted, in order to support the long-term vitality and viability of the centre. . Any applications for new retail and leisure development over 500 sq.m gross for locations outside Ibstock’s defined centre should submit a retail impact assessment.

Measham . Applications for enhanced retail/services provision should be supported provided they are of an appropriate scale to the role and function of the centre. . The Council should seek to accommodate a new convenience goods foodstore (of up to approximately 1,000 sq.m net) within or well- related to the defined centre of Measham, in order to meet the qualitative need for enhanced provision in this part of the District. . Any applications for new retail and leisure development over 500 sq.m gross for locations outside Measham’s defined centre should

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submit a retail impact assessment.

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