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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 26 Feb 2020 08:36 GMT Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Glanbia FY19 results in line, though GPN challenges remain Company Events 26-Feb Glanbia; FY19 results Origin Enterprises Challenging UK weather backdrop to Metro Bank; FY19 Results weigh on FY20 profit Permanent TSB; FY19 Results Restaurant Group; FY19 Results William Hill FY19 broadly in line with expectations Taylor Wimpey; FY19 Results William Hill; FY19 Results Permanent TSB FY19 Results in line with expectations 27-Feb Bakkavor Group; FY19 results Flutter Entertainment; FY19 Results Metro Bank FY19 result; Fresh 2020 strategy update Howden Joinery; FY19 Results LafargeHolcim; FY19 Results Taylor Wimpey FY19 in line, pricing traction in FY20 ytd Mondi; FY19 Results Persimmon; FY19 Results Irish Economic View Wage growth highest in over a Playtech; FY19 Results decade Provident Financial; FY19 Results Standard Chartered; FY19 Results Vistry Group ; FY19 Results 28-Feb CRH; FY19 Results Glenveagh Properties; FY19 Results IAG; FY19 Results 03-Mar Cairn Homes; FY19 Results Travis Perkins; fy19 Economic Events Ireland 28-Feb Retail Sales Jan20 03-Mar ILO Unemployment Rate Feb20 United Kingdom 26-Feb BRC Shop Price Index Feb20 Nationwide House Price Feb20 02-Mar BoE Mortgage Approvals Jan20 M4 Money Supply Jan20 CIPS Manufacturing PMI Feb20 03-Mar CIPS Construction PMI Feb20 04-Mar CIPS Services PMI Feb20 United States This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Europe Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Glanbia FY19 results in line, though GPN challenges remain Glanbia has reported FY19 results with EPS of 88.1c, down c.8% on constant currency basis. Recommendation: Hold This is broadly in with our forecast (and consensus) and at the bottom end of the guided Closing Price: €10.48 range (88c-92c). A stronger outturn from Glanbia Nutritionals (GN) and JV’s helped offset a weaker than expected result from Glanbia Performance Nutrition (GPN) where profit fell 15% Jason Molins +353-1-641 9141 to €146m (GBY €155m) and margins declined 410bps (guidance 300-350bps). Following a [email protected] strategic review of the business, Glanbia outlined several actions to simplify the GPN business and drive a turnaround in performance. In addition, it announced a 10% increase in the 2019 dividend and proposed a share buyback programme, subject to shareholder approval. The key takeaways include: (i) GPN branded organic revenue declined more than expected at -9.8% with vols -8.9% (GBY -8.2%) and price -0.9% (GBY 0%). This was driven by the known challenges in the International markets together with lower activity in the North America Club and Specialty channel. SlimFast performed well (very strong double-digit growth) and Optimum Nutrition saw mid-single digit growth in North America channels (ex. speciality). GPN margins declined 410bps to 10.7% (GBY 11.3%) which is lower than the 300-350bps guidance. (ii) GN performed strongly, with NS delivering organic revenue growth broadly in-line with forecast at +10.8% (vols 7%, price 3.8%) reflecting growth in Asia for pre-mix solutions and dairy snacking in the US. In US Cheese, volumes were +4.9% (GBY 5.8%), while pricing was stronger than forecast (+13.6% vs. +6% forecast) distorting the top-line performance (pass-through so no impact on profit). GN margins declined 40bps to 5.2% (GBY 5.6%) reflecting a 200bps decline in NS due to mix and input tariffs; (iii) Exceptional charges came in at €39m (GBY €15m), which included €12.7m of reorganisation and consultancy costs, and €17.3m of asset impairments (inventory write-downs and unsuccessful innovations SKUs). Glanbia has announced several initiatives to help drive a turnaround of the GPN business and deliver a 200bp margin improvement by 2022. In terms of FY20 outlook, Glanbia are guiding to constant currency EPS to be broadly flat yoy, with an expected return to growth in GPN (H2 weighting) being offset by further margin headwinds in Nutritional Solutions (NS). We are unlikely to materially change our forecasts though note that challenges remain across a number of the international markets. This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Home… Page 2 26 Feb. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Origin Enterprises Challenging UK weather backdrop to weigh on FY20 profit Origin this morning provided an unscheduled trading update announcing that earnings for Recommendation: Buy FY20 will now be significantly below current market expectations. The weakness reflects the Closing Price: €3.22 impact of continued poor weather conditions in its core Ireland and UK market. With unprecedented levels of rainfall over the past six months, Origin estimates that winter Jason Molins +353-1-641 9141 plantings were down c.40% on last year. This compares to the expected decrease of c.25% [email protected] at the time of its Q1 update in November. In addition, the amount total planted area (Winter + Spring crops) is expected to fall by c.10% vs. -2% forecast previously, with the remainder made up by Spring plantings which attracts a lower spend on crop inputs. Outside of the UK, performance has been more solid with Continental Europe progressing well and yoy growth in profit expected. The Latam division continues to deliver volume growth despite lower market demand due to a delayed soybean planting season. The division is also expected to deliver yoy profit growth. Origin will announce its interim results next week on March 5th, with further detail on trading conditions provided at that time though, as usual, no specific FY20 guidance will be provided until the Q3 update in June. Importantly, the Group does not expect any change to the Group’s long-term growth targets as guided in the 2019 CMD. Given the level of rainfall since the company’s last update in November, today’s update is not entirely surprising. We are likely to reduce our FY20 Group EPS forecast to circa 39c (vs. 49.5c currently) to reflect the reduction in the higher yielding winter plantings and the significant increase in fallow land. While noting the longer-term growth opportunity for the Group and attractive valuation, we are cautious on Origin in the near term reflecting the lack of visibility for earnings due to the extremely challenging weather conditions currently being experienced. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 3 26 Feb. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap William Hill FY19 broadly in line with expectations William Hill had pre released the majority of its headline numbers at its recent trading Recommendation: Buy update and as such there are no major surprises in today’s release. Group revenue came in Closing Price: £1.77 at £1582m (GBY:£1629m) and operating profit came in at £147m (GBY:£145m;), which was at the upper end of the previously guided range. On outlook, the statement notes that the Gavin Kelleher +353-1-641 0423 business is on track to perform in line with its expectations assuming normalised gross win [email protected] margins and a stable regulatory landscape. Online reported net revenue of £738m (+16% reported, -3% pro forma, -1% adjusted for extra week) and operating profit of £119m (-9% yoy) versus our forecasts of £762m and £124m respectively. We would note that the comparative period for FY18 had an extra week in it so the underlying is not as weak as it seems . Sports proforma NGR was -6% driven by wagers -6% and a flat GWM yoy. In gaming, pro forma net revenue was -1%. Overall pro forma UK revenue declined by -3% the same decline as in International. On outlook, management expects to return the business to growth, with low single digit growth in the UK and high single digit growth internationally. The US business delivered a strong FY19 outcome with revenue of £126m and operating profit of £1m. Within this the existing US business grew revenue by 7% to £78m and operating profit came in at £27m, -13% yoy. The expansionary business delivered revenue of £43m with an operating loss of -£26m. The US business now has market access in 24 states and the recently announced partnership with CBS should help to drive customer acquisition for its US Online business. Overall there are no major surprises in this release. On the negative side, Online is still somewhat soft in terms of the top-line, but encouragingly management are confident of its returning to growth. On a positive note, the US is performing well and UK retail is doing well in the face of the £2 stake impact. In terms of our FY20 numbers, we are currently forecasting operating profit of £154m (consensus £161m). We do not expect to make any changes to our numbers, but expect consensus to drift down towards our expectation as more people include the impact of the credit card ban. Nothing to get overly excited about in general, but we would outline the attractive valuation given the strategic value in its US and UK online assets. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 4 26 Feb.
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