Morning Wrap

Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 23 Jul 2015 Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article

Howden Joinery Accelerating into H2 Company Events 23-Jul Breedon Aggregates; H1 results Howden Joinery; Interim Results Breedon Aggregates Beats forecasts, raises medium term 24-Jul Air France-KLM; Q2 2015 Results targets, upgrades coming 27-Jul ; Q1 2016 Results 28-Jul Greencore; IMS 29-Jul Permanent TSB; Q2 2015 Results ; Q215 Economic View Fiscal rules limiting Minister Noonan’s Wizz Air; Q1 IMS 30-Jul Lufthansa; Q2 2015 Results room for manoeuvre

CRH HeidelbergCement reported to have won bidding process for LafargeHolcim’s Indian assets

Greencore Premier Foods reports stable gross margins in Q1 Economic Events Ireland

ARYZTA Acquisition of Irish premium food distributor United Kingdom 23-Jul Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM

Origin Enterprises Syngenta delivers 3% growth in H1 United States despite challenging markets 24-Jul New Home Sales

Europe 24-Jul Markit Eurozone Composite Unilever food division provides mixed read- through

UK PubCos Fullers reports 5.7% LFL sales growth in Q1

Lufthansa Expecting Q2 EBIT growth; tougher trading into winter

Dalata Hotel Group Project Trinity completes for €170m Goodbody Capital Markets

Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Commercial Property Total return for office accelerates in Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Q2 Bloomberg GDSE

FBD Holdings Two insurers withdraw from older car market

Dragon Oil Member of Dragon ‘Independent Committee’ joins ENOC Board

Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central . For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Morning Wrap

Howden Joinery Accelerating into H2

Howden Joinery has reported H115 results (for the 24 weeks to June 13th) with underlying Recommendation: Buy PBT of £59.2m, up 4% yoy, broadly in line with our forecasts (£60m) and marginally behind Closing Price: £5.18 consensus (£61.5m). Sarah Reilly +353-1-641 6080 UK sales increased by 11.1% in the period, broadly in line with our forecasts for growth of [email protected] 10.7%, and represents an acceleration on the 9.4% seen in the first 16 weeks of the financial year. This implies of 12-13% growth was achieved in the last 8 weeks of H1. This translated into an increase of 8.6% on a same depot basis marginally ahead of forecasts of 7.7%. UK depot revenue increased by 13.1% in the first four week period of H2, representing a continuation of the double-digit growth seen in last 8 weeks of H1. Management remain confident in the growth prospects for the company and is well placed to achieve its expectations for the full year.

17 new depots were opened in the period, 14 in the UK and 3 in France. Plans for 30 new UK depots and 7 new French depots in FY15 are unchanged. Howden Joinery now has over 600 depots in the UK.

Cash flow remained strong with net cash coming in ahead of our forecasts, reflecting a lower than expected spend to date on the share buyback programme as well as a lower capex. However, guidance for both capex and the buyback spend remain unchanged for the full year (c. £60m and c. £35m, respectively).

Overall, the key takeaway for us is that the strong top-line progression into the latter part of H1 has continued into the first four weeks of H2. As we have c. 10% top-line growth in the UK for the remainder of the year we believe the bias to our forecasts remains on the upside into the second half of the year. However, management will continue to invest in the underlying depot network in anticipation of continued growth. While we note that FY profits are significantly biased to the second half of the year (c. 70%) and that the critical “period 11” selling season is yet to come, our valuation thesis remains intact and we reiterate our BUY recommendation.

Home…

Page 2 23 Jul. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap

Breedon Aggregates Beats forecasts, raises medium term targets, upgrades coming

Breedon Aggregates has reported H115 results to the end of June 2015 with EBITDA of Recommendation: Buy £27.3m, up 54% yoy. This is 14% ahead of our forecast £23.9m. The key variance was Closing Price: £0.53 better margin performance, which was aided by low oil prices. EBITDA margins increased by Robert Eason 190bps to 17% compared to +170bps in FY14. Indeed, management has increased its +353-1-641 9271 medium term EBITDA margin target from 15% to 20% with these results. [email protected]

Group revenue increased by 28% yoy on a reported basis (split 30% in Q1 and c.27% in

Q2). This compared to our forecasts for 27% growth. On a regional basis, revenue in England increased by 30% yoy while Scottish revenue increased 26% On a volume basis, aggregates increased by 25%, asphalt by 29% and ready-mix concrete by 33%.

Management notes that underlying trading conditions continue to look robust with macro indicators pointing to further growth in construction output for 2015. The outlook for England remains positive with a number of contracts targeted for the second half. Demand in Scotland is not as robust with no sign of increased maintenance spending by local government. However, several large contracts are about to start. Management will continue to pursue its acquisition strategy and has several acquisition opportunities under review.

At first glance we see material upside to our FY15 forecasts and beyond given H115 performance and the increased margin target. Even assuming H115 represents 52% of FY15 profits (typically heavyside should be H215 biased) suggests over 20% upside to our PBT forecasts which are slightly above consensus. We remain positive on the Breedon Aggregate investment case as management continue to execute its acquisition strategy well and benefit from robust underlying market conditions in the UK. The stock offers compelling exposure to the recovery in the UK heavyside construction. Home…

Page 3 23 Jul. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap

Economic View Fiscal rules limiting Minister Noonan’s room for manoeuvre

With the announcement on the Irish fiscal measures for 2016 less than three months away, Dermot O’Leary +353-1-641 9167 Budget season is now in full swing. In fact, one could argue that it has been in train since the [email protected] publication of the Spring Statement at the end of April, with pledges on spending and taxes being made since then. Given the policy demands expressed by various stakeholders, there was always a risk that the government would take an overly expansionary fiscal position in Budget 2016.

With this in mind, it is reassuring to hear that Finance Minister Michael Noonan yesterday stood firm in his view that there is just €1.2bn-€1.5bn of fiscal space available. This is despite a further outperformance in the public finances since the first announcement on this front in April. The key constraint here is the EU fiscal rules, which dictate the available room for manoeuvre for countries with debt levels in excess of the 60% debt/GDP ratio. With an election due within months of Budget 2016, there was always a risk that the government may try again to push the envelope with the European Commission on the application of the rules (it has already partly done this in the Stability Programme Update).

This exact situation is where the value of the new fiscal rules comes in for Ireland. With tax receipts booming, the budget deficit falling quicker than expected and an election looming, irresponsible policies could have been the end result. In the new policy environment, Minister Noonan can push back on the host of demands for higher spending and lower taxes by stating that the new rules simply won’t permit it.

Home…

CRH HeidelbergCement reported to have won bidding process for LafargeHolcim’s Indian assets

Press reports this morning indicate that the bidding process for LafargeHolcim’s Indian Recommendation: Buy cement assets, in which CRH is taking part, has been won by HeidelbergCement. The assets, Closing Price: €26.88 which included c.5m tonnes of cement in the Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand regions in India, Robert Eason have reportedly been valued at over $900m by HeidelbergCement. +353-1-641 9271

[email protected] While we would welcome acquisition expansion by CRH, we note that management has clearly stated that any acquisitions will have to make both strategic sense and be at an acceptable multiple. As such, we are encouraged by CRH’s financial discipline which underpins our view that the company can generate returns above the prior peak during the current cycle. BUY.

Home…

Page 4 23 Jul. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap

Greencore Premier Foods reports stable gross margins in Q1

Premier Foods, the UK based producer of branded cakes, cooking sauces and meals, reported Recommendation: Buy Q1 results this morning with revenues down 1.6%. Sales were impacted by the early Easter Closing Price: £3.19 this year; according to the company, sales would have otherwise been broadly flat, Simon Matthews consistent with its Q4 performance. Gross margins in the quarter were in line with the prior +353-1-641 9187 year. [email protected]

Flat gross margins in the quarter indicate that there has been no change in

Premier’s relationships with its customers, despite fears of suppliers coming under increasing pressure from UK retailers. This has a positive read-through for Greencore, with c.40% of its revenues overlapping with Premier’s product range.

Home…

ARYZTA Acquisition of Irish premium food distributor

A number of Irish media outlets reported yesterday afternoon that ARYZTA had acquired Recommendation: Buy Irish based company La Rousse Foods. No details on a purchase consideration was provided. Closing Price: €44.00 The company, which generated €30m of sales and PAT of €2.2m in 2014, is a specialist food Liam Igoe distribution company established in 1991. It supplies premium products across the island of +353-1-641 9450 Ireland, including chilled (50%), dry goods (40%) and frozen (10%) products, to the [email protected] foodservice channel.

La Rousse adds c. 0.5% to earnings in a full year. The acquisition is in keeping with ARYZTA’s stated strategy to increase its consumer relevancy through diversifying markets and channel positioning.

Home…

Page 5 23 Jul. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap

Origin Enterprises Syngenta delivers 3% growth in H1 despite challenging markets

Syngenta reported 3% constant currency sales growth in its H115 results this morning Recommendation: Buy despite continuing softness in crop prices and low farm incomes. In EMEA, constant currency Closing Price: €7.90 sales grew 13% in the period driven by significant price increases in the CIS region and Liam Igoe volume growth across all territories except France. In terms of products, growth was driven +353-1-641 9450 by both crop protection and seeds. [email protected]

Sygenta’s strong performance in H1 provides a positive backdrop for Origin ahead of its full year results on September 23rd. However, as indicated by Syngenta, the continued softness in crop prices and subsequent low farm incomes could result in Agrii customers cutting back on farm input purchases.

Home…

Kerry Group Unilever food division provides mixed read-through

Unilever’s food division delivered 1.5% volume growth in its H115 results reported this Recommendation: Hold morning. This implies flat volume growth in Q2 (vs. 3% in Q1). Innovation around brands Closing Price: €69.40 and the introduction of healthier and more natural products helped offset the negative Liam Igoe impact of the spreads business in developed markets which continues to drag. +353-1-641 9450

[email protected] As a supplier to Unilever’s food and refreshment divisions, today’s results provide a mixed read-through for Kerry ahead of its H1 results on August 6th. While the deceleration in growth into Q2 is disappointing, the good performance from and continued focus on new product development is a positive for Kerry Ingredients as it is a key partner for product innovation.

Home…

Page 6 23 Jul. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap

UK PubCos Fullers reports 5.7% LFL sales growth in Q1

Fuller, Smith & Turner, the London focused PubCo, reported LFL sales growth of 5.7% for Q1 Simon Matthews +353-1-641 9187 (April – July). This represents an acceleration of the sales momentum achieved in Q4 of [email protected] c.4.0%. Liam Igoe +353-1-641 9450 Fuller’s strong performance has positive read-through for M&B and Greene King, [email protected] both of which are over-indexed to the London market. M&B reports Q3 results on Patrick Higgins th Wednesday 29 July. +353-1-641 0403 [email protected]

Home…

Lufthansa Expecting Q2 EBIT growth; tougher trading into winter

th Lufthansa reports Q2 numbers on July 30 , where we expect EBIT growth and FY guidance Recommendation: Sell to be maintained, though with expectations of tougher trading into winter and 2016. We Closing Price: €12.83 forecast -2.8% underlying RASK, reflecting a decent showing to North America and on short haul, but diluted by pricing weakness to SE Asia, South America and the Middle East. Jack Diskin Adjusted for positive currency moves, we see RASK of +3%. Our total revenue is +11% yoy. +353-1-641 9193

[email protected] We expect some cost inflation, through rising ATC, airport charges, pension linked staff costs and USD-denominated maintenance costs which will inflate ex-fuel unit costs. We forecast ex-fuel CASK of +6%. Factoring in a lower yoy fuel bill, we expect total CASK to rise 2.5%. This leads us to forecast adjusted EBIT of €603m, +41% yoy.

We believe the company is unlikely to change guidance for FY15 of Adj. EBIT of more than €1.5bn, given lack of winter visibility. We remain slightly below its bottom end of the guided range, reflecting our belief that further earnings growth will be challenged by more difficult yoy comps in coming quarters and as new competitor capacity enters its short haul network.

We diverge from consensus for FY16, when LCC competition is likely to intensify on short haul, to add to structural challenges on long haul. Current market multiples put Lufthansa at a premium to its historic levels; however we forecast returns consistent with 10 year averages. As such, we retain our SELL recommendation and PT of €10.50.

Home…

Page 7 23 Jul. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap

Dalata Hotel Group Project Trinity completes for €170m

Press reports yesterday indicate that Joe O’Reilly’s Chartered Land has been the successful Recommendation: Buy bidder on Project Trinity. The consortium has acquired the site from Ulster Bank for a figure Closing Price: €4.08 believed to be c.€170m, well in excess of the original guide of €120m, with a formal Colm Foley announcement expected shortly. Chartered Land has been linked to ADIA (Abu Dhabi +353-1-641 6042 Investment Authority) on the transaction, which will provide the funding, with CL managing [email protected] the site. Underbidders on the transaction include the London listed and London & Regional.

The reports, if proved true, put the short term leases that Dalata operates for the Ballsbridge Hotel (392 Rooms) and Clyde Court Hotel (185 Rooms) at risk. However it is our view, given the scale of the project and possible amendments to the planning, it is likely to be at least a further 12-18 months before work begins on the project. In addition, we expect the project to proceed on a phased basis given the sheer scale of the project (1.5m sq ft urban quarter, including 490 high end apartments and a 152 room hotel). This is likely to see the larger Ballsbridge Hotel see out the term of the lease, while the lease at the smaller Clyde Court Hotel lease could be curtailed by up to 18 months.

We currently have the two hotels dropping out of forecasts in our Dalata model at the end of 2017. Having said that, given the expected extended delivery of the development project, it is possible the Ballsbridge Hotel may remain operational beyond the 2018 lease expiry.

Home…

Commercial Property Total return for office accelerates in Q2

Colm Foley IPD released Q215 data yesterday for the Irish market. The index recorded a 6.3% total +353-1-641 6042 return for all property in Q215, with a 1.4% income return and 4.9% capital growth. This [email protected] compares to 4.3% total return in Q115 (income 1.5%, capital growth of 2.8%). The Q2 Eamonn Hughes outturn brings the annualised return to 33.7% yoy and compares to the annualised total +353-1-641 9442 [email protected] return of 36.3% in Q115.

Sarah Dunne Retail returned 4.1% in Q2, with Industrial stronger at 6%, however, as in previous quarters, +353-1-641 0482 [email protected] the star performer was a 7.4% total return in offices (an acceleration on the 5.2% in Q1, capital growth 6.1%, income return 1.3%).

The pace of the slowdown in the annualised growth rate has eased from -380bps between Q414 and Q115 to -264bps between Q115 and Q215, although it still remains very strong at +36.3%. The Q2 data is supportive for NAV progression at the REITs and reflects strong underlying dynamics in the rental market where we estimate prime Grade A rents in rise to €55 sq ft by end this year (+22%) after the 30% growth last year.

Home…

Page 8 23 Jul. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap

FBD Holdings Two insurers withdraw from older car market

Press reports this morning (Irish Independent) indicate that Allianz and Aviva have started to Recommendation: Hold refuse providing cover to motor vehicles 15 years or older. This potentially impacts c.13% of Closing Price: €9.25 the 1.91m cars on the road, with the insurers claiming poor claims history on these vehicles, Eamonn Hughes though the exclusion only applies to new customers. The press report highlights data from +353-1-641 9442 the Road Safety Authority that vehicle condition is only a small contributor to claims. [email protected]

The withdrawal of two of the larger market participants from cover for older cars is likely to reduce competition in this segment, possibly resulting in higher premiums in due course. This comes against the backdrop of rising rates across the motor account across the industry over the past two years, and likely to continue into next year given the rising cost of claims.

Home…

Dragon Oil Member of Dragon ‘Independent Committee’ joins ENOC Board

A statement from Dragon Oil yesterday indicated that Mr Ahmad Al Muhairbi, one of the four Recommendation: Buy members of the independent committee of Dragon Oil charged with assessing the offer from Closing Price: £7.18 ENOC, has resigned from that committee. His resignation follows his appointment to the Gerry Hennigan Board of ENOC on July 12th. The statement from Dragon indicates that it was informed of +353-1-641 9274 the appointment yesterday, despite Mr. Al Muhairbi’s appointment to the Board of ENOC [email protected] almost two weeks ago. While he is no longer involved in any discussions and decision- making with respect to the ENOC offer process he is to remain on the Board of Dragon Oil as a non-independent, non-executive Director.

The news, in our view, will likely embolden the view of the minority shareholders in Dragon Oil that view the offer from ENOC as undervaluing the Dragon Oil assets. The combined holding by our estimate of the minority shareholders that view the 750p offer from ENOC as undervaluing Dragon Oil now stands at c15.7% of the shares outstanding.

Home…

Page 9 23 Jul. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap

Market Data Top 10 Covered Companies

Company Price Mkt Cap Absolute Relative to European Sector P/E (LC) (LCM) 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 2015f 2016f AIB Group 0.08 43,974 - -3.4 -2.3 6.3 0.6 -3.5 -3.8 -9.0 29.3 51.6 CRH 26.88 21,924 1.4 1.2 1.1 35.1 2.0 1.2 -0.5 15.6 26.2 17.0 Ryanair 12.50 17,305 0.8 -1.7 2.2 27.5 1.4 -1.8 0.7 9.1 13.1 15.7 Wolseley 42.60 11,078 -1.2 -1.0 1.1 15.6 -0.6 -1.1 -0.5 -1.1 17.7 16.2 IAG 5.70 10,576 1.7 3.1 8.3 17.3 2.3 3.0 6.6 0.3 n/m n/a Bank of Ireland 0.39 12,500 2.9 4.6 8.1 23.3 3.5 4.5 6.5 5.5 13.8 12.8 Kerry Group 69.40 12,201 -0.8 0.3 2.8 21.6 -0.2 0.3 1.3 4.1 23.2 21.2 Mondi 15.06 7,313 -0.9 -0.1 5.5 43.4 -0.3 -0.1 3.9 22.7 16.4 15.7 easyJet 17.48 6,887 4.9 5.3 10.3 4.6 5.5 5.2 8.6 -10.5 13.2 12.7 Travis Perkins 22.48 5,553 0.3 1.1 1.8 21.1 0.9 1.0 0.3 3.6 17.4 15.2

Indices ISEQ performance

% Price 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 7,000 ISEQ 6,518.07 0.81 1.06 2.91 24.76 6,500 FTSE 100 6,667.34 -1.50 -1.28 -2.32 1.54 6,000 DAX 30 11,520.67 -0.72 -0.16 0.53 17.49 CAC 40 5,082.57 -0.47 0.70 1.68 18.95 5,500

FTSE Eurofirst 300 1,586.46 -0.62 -0.00 1.33 15.93 5,000 Nasdaq 5,171.77 -0.70 1.43 0.35 9.20 4,500 S&P 500 2,114.15 -0.24 0.32 -0.41 2.68 Dow Jones 17,851.04 -0.38 -1.10 -1.48 0.16 4,000 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Nikkei 225 20,593.67 -1.19 0.64 0.81 18.01

Exchange Rates

Current Px 1 day Px 1 Week Px Dec14 Avg Ytd

Stg/€ 0.697 0.703 0.702 0.776 0.730 STOXX 600 performance US$/€ 1.089 1.093 1.096 1.210 1.115 CHF/€ 1.048 1.046 1.044 1.202 1.056 420

JPY/€ 135.104 135.390 135.789 145.079 134.417 400

Bonds 380

Yield 1 Day Yld 1 Wk Yld 1 Mth Yld 3 Mth 360

US 2 Yr 0.71 0.03 0.71 0.05 0.16 340 US 10 Yr 2.32 -0.01 -0.03 -0.05 0.34 320

UK 2 Yr 0.82 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.12 300 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 UK 10 Yr 2.05 -0.05 -0.09 -0.06 0.31

BD 2 Yr -0.23 -0.01 -0.01 -0.23 0.03

BD 10 Yr 0.70 -0.03 -0.07 0.70 0.54

Irish 10 Yr 1.39 -0.03 -0.09 -0.26 0.76

Commodities FTSE 250 performance

% Current 1 day 5 day 1 Mth 1 Yr 18,500

Brent (ICE $/bbl) 56.13 -1.60 -1.70 -11.38 -47.70 18,000

Gasoline (NYM $/Gal) 1.87 -2.77 -3.16 -7.99 -35.17 17,500 Heat Oil (NYM $/Gal) 1.68 -0.63 0.91 -10.49 -41.36 17,000 Nat.Gas 2.90 0.52 0.94 6.00 -23.20 16,500 16,000 Gold $/oz 1,088.60 -1.54 -3.90 -8.17 -16.92 15,500 Silver $/ozt 14.78 0.20 -1.53 -8.71 -28.98 15,000

Copper U$/MT 5,350.50 -2.28 -2.10 -5.23 -24.22 14,500

Wheat $/BU 5.17 -1.52 -6.72 2.12 -1.48 14,000 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

Source : FactSet

Page 10 23 Jul. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap

Issuer & Analyst Disclosures

Analyst Certification The named Research Analyst certifies that: (1) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers. (2) No part of my remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this report.

Regulatory Information Goodbody Stockbrokers, trading as Goodbody, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Goodbody is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. This publication has been approved by Goodbody Stockbrokers. The information has been taken from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute best judgement at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information, tools and material presented in this document are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities.

Conflicts of Interest Goodbody Stockbrokers has procedures and policies in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research business. Goodbody Stockbrokers’ analysts and other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of research operate and have a management reporting line that is independent to its Corporate Finance business. Information barriers are in place between the Corporate Finance arm and the Research arm to ensure that any confidential and or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.

Our Investment Research Conflicts of Interest Policy is available at Conflicts of Interest

Investors should be aware, that, where appropriate, research may be disclosed to the issuer(s) in advance of publication in order to correct factual inaccuracies only and not to materially amend the research in any way. Goodbody Stockbrokers is satisfied that it has operational procedures in place, which ensure that such disclosures will not compromise the report’s objectivity.

Goodbody is acting as a co-lead manager in an offering of securities in Permanent TSB Group Holdings Plc. Goodbody was the co-lead manager for Hibernia REIT Plc for a public fund raising in the past 12 months. Goodbody is acting as a financial advisor to CRH on the proposed acquisition of certain assets being disposed by Lafarge and Holcim. Please note that Aer Lingus is in an offer period and Goodbody is an advisor to the named Offeror, International Consolidated Airlines Group. Goodbody Stockbrokers acts as corporate broker to AIB Group, Datalex, FBD Holdings, First Derivatives, Grafton Group, Greencore, Hibernia REIT, ICG, Kingspan, Origin Enterprises, Paddy Power, UDG Healthcare, and UTV Media A complete list of the companies that Goodbody Stockbrokers makes a market in is available at Regulatory Disclosures

Page 11 23 Jul. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap

Other disclosures

We would like to inform you that Eamonn Hughes holds shares in AIB Group

A description of this company is available at Company Descriptions

All prices used in this report are as at close of business of the previous working day unless otherwise indicated.

A summary of our standard valuation methods are available at Valuation Methodologies

A summary of share price recommendations and whether material investment banking services have been provided to these companies is available at Regulatory Disclosures

Other important disclosures are available at Regulatory Disclosures

Goodbody Stockbrokers updates its recommendations on a regular basis. A breakdown of all recommendations provided by Goodbody Stockbrokers is available at Regulatory Disclosures Where Goodbody Stockbrokers has provided investment banking services to an issuer, details of the proportion of buys, holds and sells attributed to that issuer will also be included. This is updated on a quarterly basis.

The date on which stock recommendations were first released for all stocks mentioned in this report are available at http://www.goodbody.ie/research_disclosures/regulatorydisclosures/index.html. If a different recommendation has been made in the previous twelve months, this will also be disclosed here.

Recommendation Definitions Goodbody Stockbrokers uses the terms “Buy”, “Sell” and “Hold. The term “Buy” means that the analyst expects the security to appreciate in excess of 10% over a twelve month period. The term “Sell” means that the security is expected to decline in excess of 10% over the next twelve months. The term “Hold” means that the analyst expects the security to neither appreciate more than 10%, or depreciate more than 10% over the next twelve months.

On 26th November, 2012, the terms “Add” and “Reduce” were removed from the Recommendation Definitions and both were replaced with the “Hold” recommendation. Any Previous Recommendation that refers to either an “Add” means that the analyst expected the security to appreciate by up to 15% over a twelve month period. Any Previous Recommendation to “Reduce” means that the analyst expected the security to decline by up to 15% over the next twelve months.

In the event that a stock is delisted the firm will automatically cease coverage. If however the firm ceases to cover a stock for any other reason the firm will disclose this fact.

Distribution of research to clients of Goodbody Securities Inc (GSI) in the US

GSI distributes third-party research produced by its affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers GSI is a member of FINRA and SIPC GSI does not act as a market-maker. GSI or it affiliates hold a proprietary position and/or controls on a discretionary basis more than 1% of the total issued share capital of Hibernia REIT, and Origin Enterprises

This information was current as of the last business day of the month preceding the date of the report. An affiliate of GSI may have acted, in the past 12 months, as lead manager/co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of the securities in this company. Investors should be aware that an affiliate of GSI may have provided investment banking or non-investment-banking services to, and received compensation from this company in the past 12 months or may provide such services in the next three months. The term investment banking services includes acting as broker as well as the provision of corporate finance services, such as underwriting and managing or advising on a public offer. All transactions by US persons involving securities of companies discussed in this report are to be effected through GSI.

Disclaimer While all reasonable care has been taken in the production and dissemination of this report it is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you.

Private customers having access, should not act upon it in anyway but should consult with their independent professional advisors. The price, value and income of certain investments may rise or may be subject to sudden and large falls in value. You may not recover the total amount originally invested. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance; neither should simulated performance. The value of securities may be subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities.

All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise is copyright to Goodbody Stockbrokers. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Goodbody Stockbrokers.

Goodbody, Ballsbridge Park, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland T (+353 1) 6670400 W www.goodbody.ie E [email protected] Page 12 23 Jul. 15