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Draper Esprit Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 06 Sep 2016 Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Applegreen Robust H1 outcome Company Events 06-Sep Applegreen; Q2 2016 Results Dalata Hotel Group Reports solid H116 numbers Dalata Hotel Group; H116 Results easyJet Demand looks good but we don’t know at what DS Smith; Q1 2017 Results easyJet; August 2016 - Traffic Stats price 08-Sep Air France-KLM; August 2016 - Traffic Stats IAG Europe okay, long-haul weak 09-Sep Greene King; Q1 2017 Results J D Wetherspoon; FY16 Results DS Smith Robust statement but already at a premium to Lufthansa; August 2016 - Traffic Stats 12-Sep Associated British Foods; Q4 2016 Trading Update the sector Green REIT; FY16 results Draper Esprit Conditional offer for Movidius Commercial Property Regulator gears up for post Brexit world Economic View Irish housing starts highest since 2008, but still a long way to go Economic Events UK Builders Merchants UK housebuilders still to see any Ireland Brexit impact IFG Group Curtis Banks H1 show margin decline from United Kingdom investment, base rate headwinds 06-Sep BRC Retail Sales Aug 2016 07-Sep Industrial Production July 2016 FBD Holdings Updated book of quantum due by month Halifax House Price Aug 2016 end Manufacturing Production July 2016 08-Sep Construction Output July 2016 Trade Balance July 2016 13-Sep Retail Price Index Aug 2016 CPI Aug 2016 United States Europe 06-Sep GDP Q2 2016 Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Morning Wrap Applegreen Robust H1 outcome Applegreen has reported strong H1 results this morning, with adjusted EBITDA of €13m. This Recommendation: Buy is 2% ahead of forecast and underlying growth was 24% yoy before FX gains or losses. Closing Price: €4.75 Group food and store lfl gross profit grew by 6.7% while 20 new sites were added. Adjusted Patrick Higgins net income came in 24% ahead of forecast due to a €1.4m FX-driven finance gain. +353-1-641 0403 [email protected] Applegreen’s total estate grew by 20 stations in H1 (+25% yoy) which is broadly in-line with our forecast for 47 new stations for the full year. Excluding Dealer sites, 11 new stations were added (8 PFS stations and 3 service areas). In addition, there was 9 rebrands/upgrades completed (vs. 30 forecast for full year). Total gross profit in Ireland grew 20% to €49.1m driven by estate expansion (12 new sites added) and strong LFL gross profit growth in all three divisions (fuel +6.9%, food +8.5% and store +8.5%). The new PFS stations are located in the east and south of the country further expanding the Group’s regional network. Despite challenging lfls in both fuel and store (-1.1% and -4.7% respectively), the Group grew gross profit by 18% in the UK. This was driven by estate expansion (2 new SAs, 5 new PFS stations) and strong LFL growth in food sales of 15.9%. In general, the Group saw a more competitive fuel environment while store sales were also impacted by a more cautious consumer in advance of Brexit. However, the statement did note that this has improved since period end. Since the end of June, Applegreen has further expanded its estate with 7 new petrol filling stations in the UK, one new service area in Ireland and three new dealer sites. In the USA, the Group has signed an agreement with Cross America Partners to take over 9 leasehold sites in the Massachusetts area, four of which have been taken over since June 30th. Management commented that performance since H1 has been positive with particularly strong trading in its Irish Service Areas and in UK sites in the aftermath of Brexit. We are likely to leave our FY16 adjusted net income forecast unchanged at €18.9m as a c.4.5% reduction in adjusted EBITDA to €32.2m due primarily to sterling weakness is broadly offset by the finance gain due to the same currency fluctuation (assuming sterling stays at current levels). We reiterate our positive stance on the stock. Home… Page 2 06 Sep. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Dalata Hotel Group Reports solid H116 numbers Dalata reported H116 results this morning with group revenue of €130.1m (Goodbody: Recommendation: Buy €133m) and EBITDA of €35.4m (Goodbody: €36.4m). At a group level, RevPar was +11.2% Closing Price: €4.30 yoy to €74.90; driven by occupancy +20bps to 79% and average room rate (ARR) +10.8% Kevin McDermott to €94.78. +353-1-641 9162 [email protected] The Dublin hotels delivered revenue of €68.3m (+29% yoy) and EBITDA of €22.9m (+54% yoy). RevPar in the Dublin hotels in H116 was +24.2% yoy and ahead of market growth of 21.6%. The growth in RevPar was primarily achieved by an increase in ARR of 19.8% yoy to €103.07, with occupancy increasing by 300bps to 82.8%. The Regional Ireland hotels reported revenue of €28.7m (+59.4% yoy) and EBITDA of €5.1m (+132% yoy). RevPar in these hotels increased by 12.1% yoy to €55.79, through a combination of occupancy +120bps and ARR +10% yoy. A strong positive impact was noted from the acquisition of the Choice Hotels. The UK hotels reported revenue of €24.7m (+372% yoy) and EBITDA of €7.3m (+28% yoy). RevPar in these hotels increased by 1.7% yoy to £55.10, through a combination of occupancy -130bps and ARR +3.5% yoy. Net debt at end of June was €191m, (RTM net debt/EBITDA of 2.6x). It has announced further investments today including the purchase of the freehold interest in Maldron Cork (€8m) and the purchase of 3 buildings beside its Parnell Sq Dublin Hotel (can add 35 rooms). It also re-iterates that it is in discussions to acquire an operating interest in the Doubletree Hilton Ballsbridge (502 rooms). This leaves Dalata with c.€25m to spend. Overall, this is a solid set of H1 numbers from Dalata, with the group again outperforming in its main markets. On outlook, management states that trading in July and August has been very strong and it expects RevPar to continue to grow, but at a reduced pace in the remainder of 2016. In the same period, UK trading has been in line with expectations and it had seen no impact from Brexit. We will review our forecasts following this morning’s conference call, but at first glance we see scope to increase our FY16 EBITDA by c.2% from €81.5m currently. The relatively confident and reassuring tone from today’s update should reassure the market. We re-iterate our BUY recommendation. Home… Page 3 06 Sep. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap easyJet Demand looks good but we don’t know at what price easyJet is finishing its year to September on a stronger note than we had forecast, with pax Recommendation: Hold growth running ahead of our 5.3% forecast for Q4. August passenger numbers were up Closing Price: £11.31 6.4% yoy to 7.51m vs 7.06m last year, following on from 6.7% growth seen in July. Clearly Mark Simpson post-Brexit price promotions have helped bring in traffic. +353-1-641 0478 [email protected] Seat capacity was up 5.8% yoy to 7.92m vs 7.48m last year, giving a load factor of 94.9%, up 0.5ppt. Given the August performance, we are adding 0.26m to our September and full year number, with total FY16 pax of 73.22m vs 72.96m previously. All else being equal, the revision to our passenger numbers would add circa 1% to our FY16 pre-tax of £497m. However, we know that pricing had fallen to low teens declines immediately after the Brexit vote, with our current forecast for overall Q4 yields at -10.1%. As such, we are reluctant to read too much from good August traffic numbers in terms of bottom line performance. Home… Page 4 06 Sep. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap IAG Europe okay, long-haul weak The key takeaway from IAG’s August traffic stats, released yesterday afternoon, was that Recommendation: Buy BA’s long-haul traffic looked weak. Closing Price: £3.92 Mark Simpson While IAG’s overall load factor was down 90bp at 85.9%, BA’s load factor was down 1.6ppt +353-1-641 0478 yoy to 85.4% based on a 2% increase in RPKs vs a 3.9% increase in capacity. North [email protected] American RPKs were up 9.7%, while ASKs were up 13.1%, giving a 2.7ppt decline in load factor; in comparison, July saw load factors fall by 0.5ppt only. Additionally, Asia RPKs were up 5.3% vs a 9.8% increase in ASKs, resulting in a 3.6ppt decline in load factor; again July only saw a 1.3ppt fall in load factor. Better geographically, UK and Spain saw combined load factor up 1.6ppt up on a marginal capacity increase of 0.3% yoy. Premium traffic across the group remained in positive territory, up 3.4% yoy, although this was down on the 6.1% increase seen in July.
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