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Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 05 May 2021 08:38 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article

Permanent TSB Q1 IMS; NIM weaker, but CET1 and Company Events market share better; Net positive overall 06-May AIB Group; Q121 Trading Update Air France-KLM; Q121 Results Irish BOI issues T2 Green bond, pricing at Derwent ; Q1 Update MS+165bps; UB & KBC loan sales ; Q1 update HeidelbergCement; Q121 Results Virgin Money UK PBT beats on lower impairments but Mondi; Q121 Trading Update 11-May IRES REIT; AGM costs materially higher OSB Group Issues upbeat 1Q trading update Further progress on sustainability targets C & C Group Ireland to introduce minimum unit pricing from Jan 2022 Playtech Announces more extensive deal with Holland Casino in advance of regulation Irish Economic View Flagship housing plan approved by Economic Events Ireland cabinet 06-May Industrial Production Mar21 Irish Economic View Lockdown has little impact on credit demand & supply in Q1 United Kingdom 06-May CIPS Services PMI Apr21 BoE Official Rate 07-May CIPS Construction PMI Apr21 10-May Halifax House Prices Apr21 12-May Construction Output Mar21 GDP Mar21 Industrial Production Mar21 Trade Balance Mar21

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Permanent TSB Q1 IMS; NIM weaker, but CET1 and market share better; Net positive overall

PTSB has published a slightly mixed Q1 IMS this morning, but on balance it is positive, in our Recommendation: Hold view. PTSB notes that the Q1 NIM was 1.56% (vs our 1.63% expectation) but this looks to Closing Price: €1.38 be excess liquidity driven. However, its mortgage market share in Q1 was 17.9% vs our 17.5% expected and the pro forma CET1 ratio of 15.6% CET1 (+50bps in Q1) compared our Eamonn Hughes +353-1-641 9442 15.0% forecast, so both better than expected. Elsewhere, performing loans and NPEs were [email protected] flat and deposits rose €0.3bn in the quarter.

In terms of details, NIM was 1.56% in Q1 vs our 1.63% expectation as PTSB was impacted by liquidity build-up – its calls out c.20bps impact from excess liquidity from deposit build-up and cash from the Glenbeigh loan portfolio sale. PTSB expects NIM in excess of 1.60% for the full year which compares our 1.66% forecast, but our sense is the NII impact is immaterial, its more excess liquidity driven. PTSB notes cost trends were in line with the prior year and it continues to focus on cost saving but notes the recent uplift in its digital investment (from €100m to €150m). We don’t note any specific comments on impairments other than it maintains its prudent approach in light of the material level of government supports still in place for the economy.

Moving to the balance sheet, new lending was up 22% in Q1 to €0.4bn. Mortgage lending ytd was up 30% at PTSB which compares to +7% for the market so PTSB’s mortgage market share at 17.9% ytd (17.5% expected and 15.3% last year) is a strong outturn. PTSB notes that the performing loan book was flat at €13.8bn. Customer deposit volumes were c.€18.3bn (c.€18.0bn in December). NPEs have remained flat at €1.1bn (organic cures offset new defaults). PTSB notes only 5% of customers on payment breaks last year needed additional forbearance and it anticipates a further 4% of expired mortgage break customers are likely to require additional measures. It will review its macro models at the half year. PTSB’s fully loaded pro-forma CET1 ratio was 15.6% at end-March, up c.50bps from end FY20 which it attributes to the benefits from prudential addbacks on intangibles.

Overall, lower NIM guidance is lower than previously guided but that looks more excess liquidity driven in our view, so we are more sanguine, whilst the market share and CET1 are better than expected. So overall, a reasonable IMS showing PTSB’s market position already starting to gain from recent exits.

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Irish Banks BOI issues T2 Green bond, pricing at MS+165bps; UB & KBC loan sales

Bank of Ireland yesterday priced up a €500m Green T2 10.25NC5.25 bond at MS+165bps. Eamonn Hughes The deal priced c.20bps tighter than the original IPT and generated €1.7bn of gross orders +353-1-641 9442 (3.4x oversubscribed). In BOI’s last debt investor presentation, it noted a T2 shortfall of [email protected] 0.2% and that its overall MREL ratio in December was 24.6% compared with an interim Barry Egan binding target of 24.95% by 1 January 2022. The T2 issue broadly equates to 1ppt of capital, +353-1-641 6059 so more than fills this bucket, though the benchmark size of the transaction will have helped [email protected] provide better liquidity with the new issue. It is worth making the point that the additional capital will presumably provide additional capacity for any potential acquisition of KBC

Ireland’s mortgage portfolio. In addition, BOI also noted that its 2024 (January) expected

MREL requirement is anticipated to increase to 27.8%. Whilst it had previously suggested senior debt issuance of €1-2bn annually was anticipated, clearly the T2 issue will also help it fill out its requirements.

A well-timed debt deal, coming as it did after a positive trading update last week and the Green bond credentials will also be supported by its improving ratings profile on ESG matters. The coupon cost is c.€7m per annum, equating to <1bp on the NIM.

The Irish Independent reports that private equity funds will be looking for steeper discounts than normal on NPE sales from Ulster Bank and KBC Ireland as returns on prior transactions haven’t delivered sufficient returns. The article notes that private equity bidders are expecting Natwest to prioritise the sale of Ulster Bank’s NPEs this year ahead of potential deals with AIB and PTSB as NPE sales will release more capital for the parent.

The speculation around the potential scale of discounts on NPE sales might all be part of the “cut and thrust” of negotiation with the departing banks but we are more intrigued by the reference that the NPE sales will be prioritised ahead of potential deals with AIB on PTSB. Having said that, our base case has been that AIB’s deal with Ulster Bank closes at the start of next year, absorbing around 100bps of CET1 and would still be comfortable with this timeline. The likely more complicated nature of any transaction with PTSB – taking assets, liabilities and potentially large levels of costs, plus its likely need for an equity raise to fund the transaction - may take longer to execute.

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Virgin Money UK PBT beats on lower impairments but costs materially higher

Virgin Money UK (VMUK) has today reported interim results for the six-month period to 31st Recommendation: Hold March. In overall terms, VMUK has reported PBT of £72m, which is ahead of consensus Closing Price: £2.01 expectations for £49m but behind Goodbody’s £93m forecast. The reason for the beat versus consensus is predominantly due to lower impairment charges (CoR came in at just 11bps John Cronin +353-1-641 9187 versus consensus for 33bps and Goodbody for 20bps) due to changes in macro assumptions [email protected] as well as limited specific provisions or changes in asset quality. However, exceptional costs came in at a whopping £173m (versus consensus for £130m and Goodbody for £140m),

offsetting much of the impairments beat – and explaining why PBT came in below Goodbody expectations.

Elsewhere, there was a marginal beat on income, supported by NIM of 156bps (consensus: 154bps; Goodbody: 155bps) but on lower AIEA. Importantly, VMUK has upped its NIM guidance to c.160bps (from 156bps) – we were already at 160bps (with the reinstatement of the structural hedge a likely helpful underpin here). On the lower AIEAs point, we are likely to see further downward revisions to loan growth forecasts following this update – with net loans coming in at £72.0bn versus consensus for £72.7bn (Goodbody: £72.5bn). Core opex came in at £460m in 1H21, well above consensus expectations for £443m (Goodbody: £445m) and VMUK is now guiding to FY21 costs of <£890m, which is worse than prior guidance for <£875m – so, there will be some analyst downgrades here. Separately, the exceptional charges of £173m are very high and we will need to push up our FY21F exceptional charges (currently forecasting £224m) as a result – PPI was a key disappointment but the company is also calling out higher investment spend in 2H. While cost management will likely be a major focus of the market today, we expect that VMUK management will set out aggressive further cost reduction plans on the back of Covid in due course – so, while we will be downgrading forecasts for FY21F, we are not convinced that this is a structural issue in a medium-term context with material further cost saving opportunities potentially on the horizon. The CET1 capital ratio came in at 14.4% (consensus: 13.6%; Goodbody: 13.7%) on lower RWAs, which will be welcomed. However, VMUK is still guiding to a c.13% end-FY21 CET1 capital ratio.

All in all, the results are a mixed bag. On the positive front, NIM, impairments, and CET1 capital beat expectations – and the structural hedge reinstatement is helpful. However, the market likely expected the impairments beat following peer banks’ reports last week. On the negative side, core opex and exceptionals were much

higher than expected and loan growth was slower. Indeed, while the retention of This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates end-FY21 c.13% CET1 capital ratio guidance looks like it is quite conservative, it will take the shine off the 1H21 capital beat. In overall terms, we see the negatives outweigh the positives and anticipate some mild selling pressure this morning.

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OSB Group Issues upbeat 1Q trading update

OSB Group (OSB) has this morning published a trading update for the three-month period to Recommendation: Buy 31st March. While we don’t get a huge amount of detail there are a few points to call out: i) Closing Price: £4.72 loan originations were £1.1bn in 1Q21 (1Q20: £1.5bn) and underlying net loans growth was 3% in the quarter (so, c.12% in annualised terms) – which indicates that OSB’s net loan book John Cronin +353-1-641 9187 growth guidance for c.10% in FY20 is sound, and we expect that it will come in a little higher; [email protected] ii) We don’t get NIM detail but it is instructive to note that the trading statement references “attractive margins” in the context of loan originations; iii) 3M+ arrears remained stable and

it is noted that impairment provisions benefited from HPI improvements, indicating some writebacks in the mix in 1Q (OSB’s macro scenarios are, like peer banks, very conservative); and iv) No change to FY21 guidance – which is unsurprising.

All in all, this is a positive trading update showing that OSB is on track to meet expectations for FY21 at this early stage – and we reiterate that we expect loan growth to come in ahead of guidance based on very buoyant conditions in the BTL lending market.

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Smurfit Kappa Further progress on sustainability targets

Smurfit Kappa released its 2020 Sustainable Development Report, the key points of note Recommendation: Buy from the release are: Closing Price: €42.38

• Compared to 2019, Smurfit “made significant progress” reducing its fossil CO2 David O'Brien +353-1-641 9230 emission intensity and in comparison to 2005 the group reduced its emission david.a.o'[email protected] intensity by 37.3% at the end of 2020 (between 2019 and 2020 there was a 7% reduction, representing an acceleration).

• Water discharge quality improved by 5%; • Waste to landfill intensity decreased by 18%; • Chain of Custody certified packaging deliveries to customers increased by 2%; • Safety performance improved by 29%; • Social projects received €7.7 million in donations, including €3 million in various COVID-related projects during the financial year.

Smurfit Kappa also aligned its sustainability targets into its financing by embedding its targets via Key Performance Indicators into its existing €1.35 billion Revolving Credit Facility (RCF), creating a sustainability-linked RCF at the end of 2020. CEO Tony Smurfit noted that “During the pandemic, the importance of sustainability has become even clearer. Climate change, has become, in the eyes of many, a climate crisis, and diversity, inclusion and equality are urgent issues for global society. It is of note that last week we upgraded the stock to a BUY recommendation with a €50 price target. Strong industry pricing, demonstrable ability to manage cycles better than peers and a strong ESG story underpins our positivity.

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C & C Group Ireland to introduce minimum unit pricing from Jan 2022

The Irish Cabinet signed off on plans yesterday to introduce minimum unit pricing for alcohol Recommendation: Buy from January 2022. As a reminder, there has been an expectation that Ireland would Closing Price: £2.99 introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol products for some time now, however, it has been delayed for a number of reasons including the pandemic and the hope to introduce Patrick Higgins +353-1-641 0403 the measure at the same time as Northern Ireland. [email protected]

While it’s implementation is slightly later than speculated last week, we consider MUP as a

positive development for C&C. When MUP was introduced in Scotland in May-18, C&C’s core Scottish brand, Tennents, took volume and value share in the off-trade channel as its closest peers could no longer heavily discount to drive volume. Mix also improved as the larger and cheaper pack sizes (e.g. 24 packs etc) were no longer viable.

We expect C&C's core Irish brand (Bulmers) to experience a similar benefit. The brand will not be directly affected by MUP given its relatively higher price point. However, as it is typically priced against standard lager given its size, any MUP related price increase will provide the Group the opportunity to either push through a price increase or reduce the premium and drive share.

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Playtech Announces more extensive deal with Holland Casino in advance of regulation

Playtech has this morning announced that it has signed a new, expanded long term strategic Recommendation: Buy software and services agreement with Holland Casino. Playtech had originally signed an Closing Price: £4.71 agreement with Holland Casino a number of years ago. However, this had yet to go live given the well documented delays in the opening up of the regulated online gambling market Gavin Kelleher +353-1-641 0423 in Holland. This new, expanded agreement will see Playtech become Holland Casino’s [email protected] strategic technology supplier, delivering it with a full turnkey multichannel offering and related services. The agreement includes the IMS platform, sports betting, online casino, live

casino, poker and bingo along with certain operational and marketing services. Playtech will also build a live casino facility in the vicinity of one of Holland Casino existing locations. Holland Casino is the state owned, land based casino operator in the Netherlands. It operates 14 casinos across the Netherlands, and in 2019 it generated revenue of €739m and had 6.2 million visits. It will expand into online betting and gaming when the regulated online gambling market launches, which is expected in October 2021.

While Playtech already had an agreement with Holland Casino, this morning’s announcement is another positive for the Playtech investment case. The positives include: (i) it is a long term contract with a state owned operator with a well established brand in the market; (ii) it is a regulated market that will represent incremental growth for Playtech; (iii) it appears to be a very extensive agreement that includes almost all of Playtech’s products and services; and (iv) the Netherlands regulated online market appears to be close to launching. This agreement has the potential to become a material client for Playtech over the forecast horizon. It also follows on from a number of positive announcements in the year to date including, but not limited to (i) its approval in Michigan and subsequent deal with Greenwood/Parx (launch end of April); (ii) Live Casino deals with Betsson and Kindred; (iii) agreement with Novomatic for supply of US SSBTs; and (iv) announcing a partnership with Casino Lugano in Switzerland.

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Irish Economic View Flagship housing plan approved by cabinet

Following intense debate over recent months, cabinet approved Housing Minister O'Brien's Dermot O’Leary Affordable Housing Bill yesterday. The Bill has a number of aspects to it, including the +353-1-641 9167 [email protected] provision of housing on public land, the Land Development Agency, increasing Part V provision from 10% to 20%, legislation for a national Cost Rental scheme and the introduction of the Shared Equity Scheme.

The policies are a mix of supply and demand side measures with positives and negatives. The LDA, for instance, is an agency that is given the responsibility to manage the state’s vast landbank and encourage better land use. It is long overdue. A nationwide cost-rental scheme is also a welcome development that has formed part of other housing systems in Europe for decades.

The most controversial aspect of the legislation has been the Shared Equity scheme, whereby the government would take an equity stake of up to 20% in homes purchased by first-time buyers. We have been loath to comment on the merits of the scheme until the full details, including the regional price caps, were published. These details are now available and set out a price cap of €500K for apartments and €450K for a house in parts of Dublin. In other areas of Dublin and other major cities, the price cap is set at €400K. In rural areas, the cap is set at €225K. The price caps in Dublin look high and risk ingraining higher land and development costs. At the highest cap, an income of €114K would be required. The average income of a FTB in 2020 was substantially less than this at €76K, so many of those who may avail of the scheme may already have sufficient income to purchase.

The higher cost of apartment building in urban areas explains the higher price cap on the scheme for these types of units, but there is no great evidence to show that the price caps more broadly were formulated on the basis of an analysis of building costs and the distribution of income. In a supply-constrained environment where demand remains strong, it is hard to see how this measure does not have some inflationary implications.

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Irish Economic View Lockdown has little impact on credit demand & supply in Q1

There is growing evidence that the impact of the protracted restrictions since the beginning Dermot O’Leary of 2021 is having a much less severe impact on the Irish economy relative to that +353-1-641 9167 [email protected] experienced at the start of the pandemic. The latest piece of evidence comes from the latest bank lending survey published yesterday by the Central Bank.

Starting with households, banks reported no change in demand or supply for mortgages in Q1. While there was a slight drag on demand due to “housing market prospects and consumer confidence, this was offset by a boost to demand due to “loans from other banks”. This is only the second time in the series that this latter factor has contributed to demand and may be reflective of a consumer shift in light of news that Ulster Bank will be exiting the market. The trend in demand contrasts with the fall in Q2 2020, which was triggered by a collapse in consumer confidence and views about the prospects for the housing market. Similarly, banks reported no change in credit standards or risk appetite towards mortgage lending in Q1 2020. Looking forward, banks expect both a modest loosening in credit standards and an increase in demand over the coming three months for households.

The results of the survey are similar for businesses, with no change in either lending standards or credit demand. While the general economic outlook was a concern for banks at the start of the pandemic, this factor did not impact on credit standards in Q1. There was no change in business loan demand in Q1, while no change in SME demand is anticipated in Q2.

The Irish economy has been significantly constrained in Q1 due to restrictions, but there is a greater resilience as firms have adapted and government supports have remained. Housing remains the bright spot in terms of credit demand, with businesses waiting in the wings until their businesses can fully reopen. Their appetite for credit should change once that happens and supports are tapered.

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