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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 31 Jul 2019 08:53 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Glanbia Guidance lowered on back of weak International Company Events GPN 31-Jul Air France-KLM; Q219 Results Hibernia REIT; Q120 Trading Update Smurfit Kappa Solid update, dividend increased Ibstock; Q219 Results International Personal Finance; Q219 Results Hibernia REIT Solid trading update in a health occupier INTU Properties; Q219 Results LafargeHolcim; Q219 Results market Lloyds Banking Group; Q219 Results Travis Perkins Strong H119 but group remains cautious Smurfit Kappa; Q219 Results Taylor Wimpey; Q219 Results near-term Travis Perkins; H1 results 01-Aug Barclays; Q219 Results Taylor Wimpey Solid performance, remains top pick Eurocell; H1 results Ibstock Bang in line, supplementary dividend announced FBD Holdings; Q219 Results Mondi; Q219 Results UK Commercial Property INTU HY19 results see income Standard Chartered; Q219 Results 02-Aug IAG; Q219 Results challenged as interim dividend suspended RBS; Q219 Results 05-Aug HSBC; Q219 Results Mitchells & Butlers Continues to deliver good 06-Aug Norwegian Air Shuttle; Q219 Results performance in Q3 07-Aug Flutter Entertainment; Q219 Results Greencoat Renewables; Trading Statement Keywords Studios Strong Trading Update for H1 boosted UDG Healthcare; Trading Statement by cloud-gaming Economic Events Air France-KLM Q2 beat; Outlook reads better than Ireland expected Irish Commercial Property Construction costs forecast to United Kingdom rise further United States Economic View Central Bank ups Irish economic forecasts, but all hinges on an orderly Brexit Europe UK Economic View Bump in consumer confidence, but still deeply negative This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Glanbia Guidance lowered on back of weak International GPN Glanbia issued an earlier than scheduled release of its H119 results this morning. Of Recommendation: Hold particular note, the company is now guiding to reported FY19 adjusted EPS of 88c to 92c Closing Price: €13.98 which compares to our previous estimate of 99.4c. This represents a cut of c.8-12%. The primary driver appears to be a weaker than anticipated outturn and outlook for the non-US Jason Molins +353-1-641 9141 part of its Glanbia Performance Nutrition (GPN) division. While the overall H119 outturn at [email protected] the EPS level was broadly in line (36.7c vs 35.9c forecast) this was primarily driven by a better than expected outcome in Associates, while wholly owned businesses were c.10% behind at the profit level. Revenue performance within GPN during H119 came in broadly in line with expectations with lfl revenues declining 10.9% (GBP -9.5%). SlimFast performed well in the period with 21% lfl revenue growth. Margins for the division were down 470bps to 7.6% (GBY 8.2%). In addition to the previously known volume weakness in Q1, mainly US related, volume declines are now being seen in non-US markets (c.30% of divisional revenues). Within these markets, Glanbia notes: i) Northern Europe experienced an acceleration of channel shift towards online; ii) a weaker outturn in Middle East and LATAM; and iii) India taking longer to recover post the supply chain changes. In terms of FY19 guidance, Glanbia now expects lfl branded revenue to decline low-to-mid single digits (GBY +3.5%) with margins down 250bps to 350bps (GBY -100bps). Glanbia Nutritionals, which is split out between Nutritional Solutions (NS) and US Cheese post IFRS 15, reported a broadly in-line H1 performance from a top-line perspective. NS lfl revenues grew 15.5% (vs. 15.8% forecast) while US Cheese lfl revenues were up 5% (vs. 5.3% forecast). Operating profit was c.12% behind however at €64.5m (vs €73.6m forecast) which reflects a 390bps margin decline in NS due to: i) the mix of volume growth; and, ii) the drag of increased tariffs on certain raw materials. In terms of outlook, NS is expected to deliver growth in H2 and FY19 driven by momentum in both dairy and non-dairy solutions, while US Cheese is expected to deliver a broadly flat performance yoy. Today’s update is disappointing and breaks Glanbia’s strong track record of delivery against its guidance. We are likely to lower our numbers towards the bottom end of the new guidance range, i.e. 12%. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 2 31 Jul. 19 Goodbody Morning Wrap Smurfit Kappa Solid update, dividend increased Smurfit Kappa has reported H119 EBITDA of €847m (+17% yoy, or 11% excl IFRS 16) Recommendation: Hold which compares to our forecast of €866m. This implies Q219 EBITDA growth of 4% (excl Closing Price: €28.38 IFRS 16) versus 19% in Q119. The key variances with our forecasts were a stronger outturn in the Americas offset by higher central costs and Europe being slightly behind forecast. David O'Brien +353-1-641 9230 Management has commented in the outlook that it is “highly confident of another year of david.a.o'[email protected] progress” which is reflected in the Board’s decision to recommend a 10% dividend increase (4% ahead of our expectations). The key takeaways from the results are: (i) Group revenue has increased by 2% in Q219 (+7% in Q1) which translated into 4% group EBITDA growth (excl IFRS 16) (+19% in Q1); (ii) European corrugated volumes increased by “approximately 2%” in H119 consistent with performance in Q119; (iii) In the Americas, EBITDA came in 6% ahead of our forecasts at €179m with strong performances in the US, Colombia (volumes +9%) and Mexico; (iv) OCC cost savings amounted to €32m (€25m Europe, €7m Americas); (v) corrugated box prices were higher yoy in H119. Overall, this is a solid performance from Smurfit Kappa and we expect to make no material changes to forecasts. Management will host a conference call at 9:00am for which the dial-in details are + 353 1 431 1252 and the passcode is 84313270. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 3 31 Jul. 19 Goodbody Morning Wrap Hibernia REIT Solid trading update in a health occupier market HBRN’s trading update for the period April to July 2019 notes that the vacancy rate has risen Recommendation: Buy to 15% across the in-place office portfolio (12% in March). However, this is a timing issues Closing Price: €1.54 and ongoing lettings will see that fall to 5% in the near term with most vacant space now under-offer. This includes 60,000 sq.ft of new Grade A space at 2WML, the majority of which Colm Lauder +353-1-641 6042 (60%) is under-offer, and 47,000 sq.ft of Grade B space (recently vacated by Depfa Bank) at [email protected] the Forum Building. With record levels of occupier demand, quick lettings at both are possible which will minimise capital expenditure and maximise income returns for HBRN. The first half of 2019 was an all-time record half year for office space take-up in the Dublin office market with over 1.7m sq.ft assigned according to local agents. The second quarter was quieter than the first with several large deals rolling into the current quarter. The full year 2019 is again expected to be close to a record level as the Dublin economy continues to expand across all key sectors. HBRN made €15.3m of acquisitions in the period, the most notable of which includes a 3.8- acre site at Malahide Road Industrial Estate in North Dublin for €7.9m. The site (HBRN get vacant possession in early 2020) is located on a key arterial route between the city centre (5 miles) and the airport (2 miles). With favourable soundings from Dublin City Council in recent months, a rezoning to residential could present an opportunity to develop ~400 units at this site. The other, smaller acquisitions may enhance existing developments by providing further design flexibility and improved access options. HBRN has delivered a solid quarter with continued lettings progress and a creative approach to acquisitions helping position the Dublin specialist for growth through the market cycle. The short-term vacancy allows HBRN to capture enhanced incomes while the new potential development sites provide capacity for future upside. With HBRN trading at a discount of 15% to our forward NAV versus Green REIT at 4% in light its sale process, HBRN continues to present an attractive re- rating opportunity. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 4 31 Jul. 19 Goodbody Morning Wrap Travis Perkins Strong H119 but group remains cautious near-term Travis Perkins has reported first half operating profits (excluding property profits of £6m and Recommendation: Hold excluding P&H but inclusive of an impact from IFRS16) of £189m. This represents yoy Closing Price: £13.24 growth of 24% and ahead of our forecast of £183m (circa £163m excluding IFRS16) with the main variances being a stronger than anticipated performance in Retail from both a top line Robert Eason +353-1-641 9271 perspective and a margin perspective.
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