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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 19 Feb 2021 09:00 GMT Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Kingspan FY20 – Ahead of expectations Company Events 19-Feb IRES REIT; FY20 Results IRES REIT FY20 Results – NAV growth returns in a Kingspan; FY20 Results buoyant market NatWest Group; FY20 Results SEGRO; FY20 Results SEGRO FY20 Results – 9% NAV outperformance as values 23-Feb HeidelbergCement; FY20 Results HSBC; FY20 Results climb 24-Feb Glanbia; FY20 Results Irish Banks AIB agrees sale of deep arrears loan portfolio Lloyds Banking Group; FY20 Results Wienerberger; FY20 Results – small CET1 boost William Hill; Q420 Results Irish Banks Natwest announces phased withdrawal from 25-Feb Domino's Pizza Group; FY20 Results Grafton Group; FY20 Results Ireland – AIB and PTSB looking at assets Howden Joinery; Trading update Standard Chartered; FY20 Results Irish Economic View Recovery delayed as heavy Vistry Group; FY20 Results restrictions set to linger into May 26-Feb FBD Holdings; FY20 Results Glenveagh Properties; FY20 Results UK Economic View Quick vaccine rollout instils optimism LafargeHolcim; FY20 Results amongst UK consumers Economic Events UDG Healthcare In-line Syneos statement failed to inspire Ireland United Kingdom United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Kingspan FY20 – Ahead of expectations Kingspan reported a strong set of FY20 results. Group trading profit has come in at €508m Recommendation: Buy (+1% yoy) versus our forecast of €502m. However, excluding the repayment of government Closing Price: €57.40 COVID supports trading profit came in at €525m (+5.6% yoy) compared to guidance for marginal yoy growth. Relative to forecasts the beat has been driven by stronger than David O'Brien +353-1-641 9230 expected activity into year end. The global orderbook for panels is up 19% yoy and david.a.o'[email protected] management notes that 2021 has started well while noting the challenge of recovering raw material price inflation. The encouraging outlook along with further M&A activity and the wide-ranging actions following the Grenfell Inquiry will be well received in our view. At first glance, we will be nudging our FY21 forecasts up slightly. The key takeaways from the statement are: (i) the global Panel orderbook has increased from +10% in November to +19% at year end. The improvement has been driven by strong order intake in the Americas and mainland Europe with orderbooks comfortably ahead in the UK yoy; (ii) In response to a number of issues that have arisen from the Grenfell Inquiry, the company has made changes to processes, governance and management while adopting a new code of conduct. In addition, it has given reassurances on any legacy testing issues and is providing support on legacy projects; (iii) Cash generation has been exceptionally strong with net debt finishing the year at €236m compared to our forecast of €298m driven by strong working capital management; (iv) While small in the overall scope of the company, it is encouraging to see further development activity with the acquisition of SkyDome (Daylighting), Bromyros (Panels Uruguay) and Dyplast (Technical insulation in the US) since the start of December. This expansion will be complimented by a number of capex development projects. The stock offers material long term value at current levels. We continue to view Kingspan as very well placed to serve the clear necessity for energy efficient building solutions over the long term. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 2 19 Feb. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap IRES REIT FY20 Results – NAV growth returns in a buoyant market In our preview note last week we highlighted a view that IRES was likely to return to capital Recommendation: Buy value growth in H2-20 as valuer optimism returned. We expected a modest 1% capital Closing Price: €1.52 growth, which would deliver NAV growth of 1.5% to 152.2c. This expectation was considerably outperformed with capital values rising ~4%, driving NAV up (to 159.9c) 7% Colm Lauder +353-1-641 6042 since June (149.9c) and 3% since FY19 (154.6c). This means IRES is back trading at a [email protected] discount of -5% to NAV (0.95x) in a sector where we consider 10% a fair premium to be (1.1x). This reinforces our strong “Buy” call and Price target of 175c. We expect forward NAV upgrades of ~5%. Net Rent was bang in line with our expectations for the FY, delivering +18% y/y as new additions and rent reviews drove growth. The €46.3m positive swing in revaluations was a sizable outperformance of our expected H2 swing of €15m (along with a €4.4m gain above book value disposals) and drove Basic EPS to over double our expected 4.4c with 11.2c. However, on a net rental basis, earnings (EPRA basis) were marginally below our 6.8c forecast at 6.5c. This was due to higher expenses. Nonetheless, IRES made a significant upgrade to its dividend progression plans with a further 3.22c announced following 3.5c paid for H1. This results in a total dividend for the year of 6.7c (6.0c forecast) and sees an implied yield of 4.4%. Considering the solid income performance (98.9% rent collection), IRES is an increasingly appealing secure income play. IRES note that “demand has remained strong” with occupancy at 98.4% while ”supply constraints and resilient demand,…,underpin performance”. Strong transactional evidence supports this, and this was evident in the 20bps net initial yield compression to 4.2% (the dominant value driver). Along with strong occupancy, turnover at ~18% gave the opportunity to capture reversions as average rents rose 1.8% to €1,624pcm. There was no update on the IMA apart from noting IRES is “exploring the option to internalise management”. We were bullish on IRES ahead of results given the buoyant Irish PRS market and strong pricing evidence (notwithstanding rental affordability issues), and NAV performance has come in well ahead of expectations. We will be upgrading post- results and reiterate our “Buy” call at PT of 175c. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 3 19 Feb. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap SEGRO FY20 Results – 9% NAV outperformance as values climb SGRO delivered another strong year of growth in its FY20 results published this morning, Recommendation: Hold beating expectations (both ours and consensus) as UK (and to a lesser extent Continental Closing Price: £9.63 Europe) asset valuations pushed forward (+9.2%, double the market gains of +4.6%) to new highs. Meanwhile, the early COVID challenges to (impacting March/June) rent collection Colm Lauder +353-1-641 6042 has largely abated with net rent (and thus earnings and dividends) back in-line with pre- [email protected] lockdown performance. The standout item was, unsurprisingly, NAV, as growth of 16% to 814p (up 10% on H2 alone) will lead us to re-assess our valuation upwards. SGRO now trades at a 1.2% premium (1.2x) aligning with sector averages. The operational performance has remained particularly strong with £78m of new rents secured growing the rent roll to £508m. 53% (or £41m) of these were pre-lets further highlighting the depth of occupier demand in the market and de-risking SGRO’s development pipeline. Almost 840m sq.ft of developments were completed in 2020, with the potential to add £47m of rent (£39m of which is secured). The earnings security delivered by improvements in rent collection over the year (including collecting arrears) saw net rental income rise by 6% y/y to £327m, slightly ahead of our forecasted £322m. Combined with bumper re-valuation gains of £989m (GBYf: £170m) drove Basic EPS to 124p, well ahead of our 47.9p forecast. Net rental profit (EPRA basis) was 25.3p, closer but again ahead of our 22.7p as strong underlying income growth boosted performance. The earnings growth led to a further progression in the dividend, with 22.1p final declared, ahead of our 21.4p expectation. This implies a dividend yield of 2.3%. This morning’s results have delivered a significant outperformance of both our forecasts and consensus from a NAV perspective. We are likely to lift our FY21 NAV forecasts by approximately 9%, which will result in a corresponding increase in our valuation. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 4 19 Feb. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Irish Banks AIB agrees sale of deep arrears loan portfolio – small CET1 boost AIB has announced that it has agreed to sell a NPE portfolio (in long term default, average Eamonn Hughes time since first default of 10 years) to Mars Finance Ireland, part of a consortium with Mars +353-1-641 9442 and affiliates of Apollo. AIB is to receive a cash consideration of €0.4bn for the portfolio [email protected] which had a gross NPE value of €0.6bn last September and associated RWAs of €0.4bn.
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