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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 17 Sep 2015 Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article FBD Holdings Issue of €70m convertible bond to Fairfax Company Events Financial 23-Sep Origin Enterprises; Q4 2015 Results CRH Positive outlook from Apogee will be complemented by recent acquisition Paper & Packaging US liner board export production declines in August Tullow Oil Ugandan commentary on crude development adds uncertainty US Economic View Federal Reserve to decide on first Economic Events Ireland interest rate rise today United Kingdom 17-Sep Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY United States 17-Sep Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook FOMC Rate Decision Housing Starts Initial Jobless Claims Europe Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Morning Wrap FBD Holdings Issue of €70m convertible bond to Fairfax Financial Recommendation: Restricted FBD yesterday announced a €70m convertible bond private placement with Fairfax Financial, Closing Price: €6.75 subject to shareholder approval. Ahead of the approval, FBD yesterday issued a Tier 2 bond to Fairfax with a 12% coupon, bolstering capital immediately, which will be exchanged for Eamonn Hughes the convertible bond within 7 days of the required shareholder approval. Please note that +353-1-641 9442 [email protected] Goodbody is a corporate advisor to FBD. The convertible bond is Solvency II compliant and carries a 7% coupon, payable semi-annually. The conversion share price is set at €8.50, a 37% premium to the price ahead of the announcement. Unless previously redeemed, the bond will be exercisable from year 3 to year 10 in the event that the 30-day volume weighted share price exceeds the conversion price for 180 days, automatically converting into ordinary shares in FBD at the conversion price. Should the bond convert, we estimate Fairfax would end up with a c.19% stake in FBD. The 7% coupon is much cheaper than where recent speculation had pitched where a possible straight debt deal may have been for FBD. We anticipate this lower coupon could add c.11% to net income in 2018 relative to the straight debt deal, but post conversion as much as c.23%. However, the higher share count post conversion would leave FY19 operating EPS unchanged. From a value perspective, the higher equity content post conversion pares c.50bps+ from normalised ROE, though would be offset by the higher NAV per share (if converted at premium to NAV), implying a modest boost to value. Significant reserve strengthening in the H1 results drove some uncertainty over capital levels, raising FBD’s potential Cost of Equity. The convertible bond is a vote of confidence in both FBD management and possibly Fairfax’s view on the adequacy of the reserve strengthening. Home… CRH Positive outlook from Apogee will be complemented by recent acquisition Apogee (a peer of CRH’s US Building Envelope division, represents 3-4% of group EBITDA in Recommendation: Buy FY14) has reported Q2 (to end of August) earnings of $0.50. This was broadly in line with Closing Price: €26.19 consensus ($0.51) and up over 40% yoy, reflecting a strong margin performance (+370bps) Robert Eason on sales growth of 4% (14% Q1). The latter was driven by strong mid-teens growth in the +353-1-641 9271 US products business, offset by project timing in the installation business and adverse [email protected] currency movements. While management has moderated its top-line expectations for the FY to high-single digit from 10-15% (reflects impact of construction delays), it has left earnings guidance unchanged at $2.10-2.25 (consensus $2.30). Its backlog is up 7% yoy and given its high level, management notes “visibility one year out is stronger than it has ever been”. CRH’s US Building Envelope business reported lfl sales growth of 6% in H1, with management also highlighting the impact of some delays in project timing. Apogee’s comments on the pipeline are therefore encouraging. In addition, CRH’s business will benefit from the recent acquisition of C.R. Laurence which is a complementary business given that it is a specialist supplier of high-value custom hardware to the glass / glazing industry. This business has sales of $570m and EBITDA of $115m, with a conservative synergy assumption of $40m. Home… Page 2 17 Sep. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap Paper & Packaging US liner board export production declines in August The latest data from the US shows that corrugated box shipments increased by 0.5% in David O’Brien +353-1-641 9230 August to 30.9bn m2, slowing from 1-2% growth in the preceding six months. This leaves the david.a.o’[email protected] ytd figure at +1.4%. Containerboard inventories increased by 66k tonnes compared to the average monthly increase for August of 1k. Interestingly, from a European perspective, Robert Eason +353-1-641 9271 production of liner board for export declined by 4% yoy in August representing the second [email protected] consecutive month of decline. It is encouraging to see export production decline again in August given that the European market is a major destination of US kraftliner exports. This is supportive of the current efforts to increase both kraftliner and testliner grades in Europe. Home… Tullow Oil Ugandan commentary on crude development adds uncertainty Having made the initial discovery on the shores of Lake Albert almost a decade ago (Q1’06) Recommendation: Hold developments in Uganda have since been slow and frustrated. While commentary yesterday Closing Price: £2.09 from the Ugandan Energy minister was positive in that production permits (yet to be Gerry Hennigan awarded to Tullow and Total) are now expected to be issued by year-end and “could be +353-1-641 9274 sooner”, commentary elsewhere serves to only add uncertainty and confusion. Foremost in [email protected] that regard is an indication that the government is in the process of revising the PSA model and that despite apparent agreement on a pipeline through Kenya the route is “still under discussion”. Discussion with Tullow suggests any changes to the PSA terms are likely to impact future agreements and not applied retrospectively. With discussions still ongoing on the pipeline route, and at least one of the partners (Total) apparently favouring a Tanzanian route as a more secure option, the Ugandan statement that construction of the pipeline will commence in c19 months may again prove unrealistic. At the very least, the Ugandan government timeline for the commencement of crude distribution by 2019 (we assume 2020) is in danger of being pushed out even further. Home… Page 3 17 Sep. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap US Economic View Federal Reserve to decide on first interest rate rise today All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve today with a decision on whether to raise rates for the Juliet Tennent +353-1-641 9469 first time in 9 years pending. While the US labour market has been steadily improving [email protected] (unemployment rate down to 5.1% from 6.1% a year ago) and economic growth accelerating (3.7% annualised yoy in Q2), China driven volatility in financial markets is likely to stay the hand of the Fed, at least for now. Since the beginning of August the probability of a rate hike following today’s meeting has reduced from 40% to 32%, as uncertainty about the health of the Chinese economy has risen. In addition, concerns about the impact on dollar reliant emerging markets have been raised by a number of institutions including the IMF and the OCED who are both advising that the US Federal Reserve should delay any rate increase until financial conditions are more stable. The improvement in US growth implies that the economy is ready for rate lift-off. However, today the Fed is faced with a dilemma. Should it delay raising rates until global financial conditions are more stable, and risk falling behind the curve domestically, or should it raise rates now and risk disrupting global markets further? Either way the US is poised to start to raise rates soon. We expect that a delayed rate hike today will be accompanied by a hawkish statement and a clear signal of intent for October’s meeting. Home… Page 4 17 Sep. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap Market Data Top 10 Covered Companies Company Price Mkt Cap Absolute Relative to European Sector P/E (LC) (LCM) 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 2015f 2016f AIB Group 0.08 41,880 2.6 1.3 -7.1 1.3 1.0 1.8 -0.8 -4.1 26.0 29.2 CRH 26.19 21,362 0.5 -2.3 -4.7 31.6 -1.0 -1.8 1.7 24.6 23.4 14.4 Ryanair 13.62 18,856 0.5 -0.3 6.9 38.9 -1.0 0.2 14.1 31.5 13.1 15.2 IAG 5.98 12,156 0.3 3.5 10.2 23.0 -1.2 4.0 17.7 16.4 11.6 8.2 Wolseley 42.48 11,047 0.8 0.5 1.0 15.2 0.1 0.9 5.4 16.3 17.6 16.1 Kerry Group 65.12 11,448 1.8 -0.1 -6.0 14.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 8.0 21.7 19.9 Bank of Ireland 0.35 11,270 -0.6 -0.6 -4.1 11.2 -2.1 -0.0 2.3 5.2 10.9 11.4 easyJet 17.61 6,938 0.3 -1.1 3.0 5.4 -0.3 -0.8 7.5 6.3 12.6 11.9 Mondi 14.09 6,842 -4.7 -4.3 -10.3 34.2 -6.1 -3.8 -4.2 27.0 14.7 14.0 Travis Perkins 20.60 5,088 1.4 1.5 -2.8 10.9 0.7 1.8 1.5 11.9 16.3 13.9 Indices ISEQ performance % Price 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 7,000 ISEQ 6,492.26 0.34 -0.58 -0.43 24.26 6,500 FTSE 100 6,229.21 1.49
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