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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 23 Sep 2015 Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Origin Enterprises Results in-line; caution on year ahead Company Events 23-Sep Origin Enterprises; Q4 2015 Results 28-Sep ARYZTA; Q4 2015 Results Smurfit Kappa Bio-Pappel to implement 15% box price 29-Sep Wolseley; FY15 Full Year results 30-Sep GameAccount Network; H115 Results increase in Mexico US Building Materials Step back in headline ABI only temporary given strength of pipeline Cairn Homes Ulster Bank readying sale of 1,850 acres of development land Greencore Competitor 2 Sisters investing in Ready Meals production Economic Events Ireland Global Economic View Chinese manufacturing PMI sinks United Kingdom to lowest in 6 years 24-Sep BBA Loans for House Purchase United States 23-Sep US Manufacturing PMI 24-Sep Durable Goods Orders New Home Sales 25-Sep GDP Annualized QoQ Core PCE QoQ US Composite PMI U. of Michigan Sentiment Europe 23-Sep Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Eurozone Services PMI Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Morning Wrap Origin Enterprises Results in-line; caution on year ahead Reported Group profits were similar to FY14 (slightly behind our estimates), though 3.3% Recommendation: Buy lower on a lfl basis. UK winter plantings were 2.7% lower and although good progress was Closing Price: €7.54 made in some value added services, there was less seasonal intensity in FY15, especially in Q4. East European operations were ahead of last year. Associates were slightly better than Liam Igoe +353-1-641 9450 our forecast, due to Valeo, which coupled with a lower tax charge, resulted in an EPS in line [email protected] with expectations at 60c. As expected, management is cautious in tone on FY16. Continued pressure on farm incomes and the impact on sentiment could lead to lower planting decisions and farm input purchases, which may be reinforced by a late harvest this year (resulting in a shorter winter planting season). It is very early to gauge how these variables may actually unfold. However, if we take a cautious approach regarding demand, on the basis that cereal prices remain depressed and show little signs of improvement in the near term, our forecast EPS for FY16 would be closer to 52c. If we assume revised 52c for FY16, Origin’s calendarised 2016 PER would be approximately 14x for what we expect will be bottom of cycle earnings. It is also supported by a dividend yield of 2.9%. This rating is broadly in-line with agri stocks but for a company in a much stronger financial condition. We remain very positive on Origin’s prospects on a medium term view. Home… Smurfit Kappa Bio-Pappel to implement 15% box price increase in Mexico In a RISI article this morning Bio-Pappel the no.1 player in the Mexican corrugated and Recommendation: Buy containerboard market has indicated that it is implementing a 15% corrugated and Closing Price: €25.35 containerboard price increase to offset some currency pressures on cost inputs brought David O'Brien about by the devaluation of the Mexican peso. This comes against the backdrop of demand +353-1-641 9230 being at good levels with Bio-Pappel’s operating rate running at 98% while other players david.a.o'[email protected] noted that strong demand should increase into October and November as the agricultural season kicks off. This is encouraging from a Smurfit Kappa perspective given that c.45% of volumes in the Americas division are Mexican based. Indeed, management indicated at the H115 stage that EBITDA margins would improve in H215 as corrugated price increases were implemented, particularly in Colombia and Mexico. Home… Page 2 23 Sep. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap US Building Materials Step back in headline ABI only temporary given strength of pipeline The Architectural Billings Index (a 9-12 month leading indicator for the US non-residential Robert Eason +353-1-641 9271 sector) dipped below the critical 50 level in August to 49.1. This is down from 54.7 in July [email protected] and is the third time this year that it has pointed to a slight contraction. David O’Brien +353-1-641 9230 Encouragingly, the more forward indicators of project inquiries and new design contracts david.a.o’[email protected] remain robust. The Inquiries component is at 61.8 and Design Contracts is 55.3 versus 63.7 Sarah Reilly and 54.5 in the prior month. +353-1-641 6080 [email protected] We view the step back in the headline ABI as only temporary given the strength of the pipeline as suggested by Inquiries / Design Contracts. As a result, we are not overly concerned and remain positive on the US non-residential sector, a key segment for both Wolseley and CRH (c.40% and c.33% of their respective US operations). Home… Cairn Homes Ulster Bank readying sale of 1,850 acres of development land Press reports this morning (Irish Times) indicate Ulster Bank is getting ready to offload 1,850 Recommendation: Buy acres of residential development land in Dublin. The 32 sites account for 17% of the all Closing Price: €1.11 residential land in Dublin and are expected to be sold off in 3 tranches with each tranche Colm Foley containing a corner stone asset. +353-1-641 6042 [email protected] The first tranche is expected to include a large land bank at Adamstown in West Dublin where 1,500 of the 7,000 planned homes have been built to date. Two other land banks which are likely to draw strong interest will be the nine acres of land at Cross Avenue in Blackrock in Dublin and an 80 acre site in Portmarnock in North Dublin. Given the size of the portfolios we expect to see strong interest in the Ulster Bank portfolio from, amongst others, Cairn Homes. We believe Cairn Homes will be in a strong position to acquire these assets given it is one of the few developers in the market with funding available following its recent capital raise. Home… Page 3 23 Sep. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap Greencore Competitor 2 Sisters investing in Ready Meals production Greencore rival 2 Sisters Food has announced a £38m investment in its Sheffield ready Recommendation: Buy meals factory to support key customer M&S. Two Sisters has lost much of its sandwich Closing Price: £2.96 business in recent years (M&S to Greencore, Costa to Adelie) but holds a strong position in Ready Meals. The investment signals a continued move away from the sandwich business. Simon Matthews +353-1-641 9187 [email protected] There has been suggestions that 2 Sisters may put its sandwich division, which principally supplies Tesco from one site, up for sale. Greencore would be a logical buyer of this business. Home… Global Economic View Chinese manufacturing PMI sinks to lowest in 6 years There was further evidence of a slowdown in the Chinese economy with the release of its Juliet Tennent +353-1-641 9469 preliminary Caixin Manufacturing PMI for September. This gauge of manufacturing activity [email protected] slowed to 47, from 47.3 in August, and is now at its lowest level in 6½ years. It has been below the 50 level, indicating contraction in the sector, since March this year. This reading comes at a time when the Chinese President Xi Jinping is on an official visit to the US, where he is attempting to reassure on a number of issues, most notably the Chinese economy. However, the persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector has cast doubts over the Chinese government’s forecasts of c.7% growth this year and investors remain sceptical. This latest data adds to concerns about the Chinese Manufacturing sector and will do little to assuage the concerns of the Federal Reserve. Last week it delayed lift off on interest rate increases, citing concern about global growth in general and Chinese growth in particular as the main factors behind the decision. Home… Page 4 23 Sep. 15 Goodbody Morning Wrap Market Data Top 10 Covered Companies Company Price Mkt Cap Absolute Relative to European Sector P/E (LC) (LCM) 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 2015f 2016f AIB Group 0.08 40,310 - -1.3 -8.3 -2.5 3.2 1.5 -4.5 -3.7 25.0 28.1 CRH 24.92 20,326 -3.6 -4.4 -0.5 25.2 -0.5 -1.7 3.7 23.7 22.3 13.7 Ryanair 13.53 18,731 -1.0 -0.2 12.2 38.0 2.2 2.6 17.0 36.3 13.1 15.1 IAG 5.67 11,526 -4.6 -4.9 10.6 16.6 -1.6 -2.2 15.3 15.3 11.0 7.8 Wolseley 41.14 10,699 -2.6 -2.3 0.8 11.6 0.2 1.6 4.5 18.0 17.1 15.6 Kerry Group 65.65 11,541 -0.8 2.6 0.2 15.0 2.4 5.5 4.5 13.7 21.9 20.0 Bank of Ireland 0.33 10,784 -3.5 -4.9 -3.8 6.4 -0.4 -2.2 0.3 5.1 10.4 10.9 easyJet 17.00 6,698 -2.8 -3.1 4.7 1.7 -0.0 0.8 8.6 7.5 12.2 11.5 Mondi 13.36 6,487 -3.7 -9.6 -7.5 27.2 -0.6 -7.1 -3.6 25.7 14.0 13.3 Travis Perkins 19.85 4,903 -2.6 -2.3 -1.6 6.9 0.2 1.6 2.0 13.0 15.7 13.4 Indices ISEQ performance % Price 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 7,000 ISEQ 6,359.28 -2.22 -1.72 3.00 21.72 6,500 FTSE 100 5,935.84 -2.83 -3.29 -4.07 -9.60 6,000 DAX 30 9,570.66 -3.80 -6.06 -5.47 -2.40 CAC 40 4,428.51 -3.42 -3.08 -4.37 3.65 5,500 FTSE Eurofirst 300 1,365.20 -3.27 -2.87 -4.34 -0.24 5,000 Nasdaq 4,756.72 -1.50 -2.14 1.08 0.44 4,500 S&P 500 1,942.74 -1.23 -1.79 -1.43 -5.64 Dow Jones 16,330.47 -1.09 -1.62 -0.79 -8.37 4,000 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Nikkei 225 18,070.21
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