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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 23 Sep 2020 08:27 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Origin Enterprises Well placed to recover from tough Company Events FY20; Valuation compelling 23-Sep Origin Enterprises; FY20 results SSP Group; Q4 update SSP Group Losses in the middle of the guided range, good 24-Sep SIG; Q220 Results outcome on liquidity 29-Sep Ferguson; FY20 Results Greggs; Q3 trading update 30-Sep 888 Holdings; Q220 Results Draper Esprit Participation in ICEYE Series C Round S & U; Q220 Results Economic View Further supports required for the long winter Building Materials Architectural billings in August still show little sign of improvement Irish Banks BOI voluntary redundancy targets well on way to being met Economic Events Ireland 28-Sep Retail Sales Aug20 United Kingdom United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Origin Enterprises Well placed to recover from tough FY20; Valuation compelling Origin has this morning reported adj. EPS of 25.69c (GBY 24c) which is at the top end of the Recommendation: Buy company guided range (23c-26c). FY20 was a challenging year for the business given the Closing Price: €3.17 impact from extreme weather conditions (i.e. 5th wettest autumn on record, wettest February on record and drought conditions in March-June), particularly in its largest market, Jason Molins +353-1-641 9141 the UK. Consequently, Group operating profit declined 46.4% to €44.1m mainly due to [email protected] weaker volumes and margins in Ireland and the UK. Encouragingly, a key focus on cash preservation in the second half of the year, particularly around working capital management and the benefit of UK COVID-19 VAT deferrals, has resulted in net debt (pre-IFRS 16) coming in at €53.2m (GBY €95m) and is down c.€40m yoy. The key highlights from today’s update were as follows: i) Ireland & the UK reported a 61.4% decline in operating profit to €23.3m with underlying volumes in agronomy services and crop inputs down 14.4%. The unfavourable weather conditions throughout the year were a significant negative factor for the agronomy services and fertiliser businesses, while the Amenity business was particularly impacted by COVID and the associated closure of sporting venues. The Feed business performed reasonably despite lower volumes; ii) Continental Europe achieved a more robust performance with underlying profit down just 2.3% to €13.2m and margins being held flat yoy. Despite a challenging operating environment, underlying volumes declined by 1.9%. Solid results in Poland and Romania helped offset weaker outcomes in Belgium (impacted by weather and global raw material prices) and Ukraine (ongoing market challenges and volatile currency); iii) Brazil profit came in at €7.1m (GBY €7.0m) with underlying volume and revenue growth of 4.3% and 6.4% respectively. Operating profit improved by 4.9% on an underlying basis, with reported profit impacted by the weakening of the Brazilian Real. Origin also announced that it had divested its 20% stake in Ferrari back to its existing shareholders; and iv) CFO appointment: TJ Kelly, formerly CFO of Hostelworld and Glanbia, has been appointed Origin’s CFO and will commence no later than March 2021. Overall, while FY20 has proved a challenging year, we believe that in a more normalised weather environment and given the inherent strength of the business, Origin should be well placed to deliver substantial growth in FY21. From a valuation perspective, Origin trades on just 7.4x FY21 PE, a c.25% discount to its 3-year historic average which offers an attractive entry point. This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Home… Page 2 23 Sep. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap SSP Group Losses in the middle of the guided range, good outcome on liquidity SSP this morning issued a pre-close update. Revenue for the year was c.£1.45b Recommendation: Buy and operating loss has been guided to broadly in the middle of the £180-£250m range for Closing Price: £1.81 H2, indicating a FY EBIT loss of c. £216m. Overall revenues are expected to be -86% lower yoy in H2 and current weekly sales are noted as running at 76% below last year, Paul Ruddy +353 1 641 6024 representing an improvement from Q3 (c.-93%). Revenue and EBIT came in below our [email protected] forecasts of £1.58b & -£151m respectively, but we had flagged previously that our numbers were too high given the global restrictions still hampering air travel in Q4. Cash burn is better than we anticipated, guided to a range of £250m to £270m (we expected £290m cash burn with a smaller EBIT loss) and better than previous guidance, although it does mention rent deferrals. This means liquidity at the end of the current financial year will be £480 to £500m with current monthly cash burn of £25m per month. On current trading weekly sales are now c.-76% below last year recovering from -90% in June and -95% in April and May. Continental Europe has performed best with weekly sales down c.-66% yoy as it benefits from its rail business reopening and some recovery in regional air travel. North America, the UK and the Rest of World regions are down around - 80-85%. The UK also saw a small recovery in the air sector during the summer from leisure customers while the rail sector was very weak in the third quarter but is now seeing signs of a slow recovery. The group has now reopened c. 1,100 units which is over a third of its total. The reopening’s are selected in locations that can achieve break-even level of sales at low levels of passenger numbers. On outlook, the group notes that more recently it has seen some limited improvement in travel with sales at c. 24% of pre-COVID levels. It flags that demand may well remain subdued during the winter and it will continue to re-open sites dynamically when there is demand. On a more medium term view, it believes that demand for travel will return and the actions it has taken together with the evolving market backdrop will ensure SSP emerges as a fitter and stronger business. Operating losses for FY20 are more than our forecasts and at the higher end of the consensus range, however this should not come as much of a surprise given the disruption to global travel that continued into the late summer. However, liquidity is better than we anticipated and current cash burn is manageable, helped by government supports. We will reduce forecasts for FY21 to reflect the slow re-build of the travel market with sales only running at c.75% of pre-COVID levels. A key This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates question for the conference call at 9am will be what its expectations are for cash burn as government supports begin to reduce later this year. Overall, a good outcome on cash burn and liquidity is a positive in the context of the challenges facing the travel and leisure sector. Home… Page 3 23 Sep. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Draper Esprit Participation in ICEYE Series C Round A statement from Draper Esprit yesterday indicated that it has participated in the latest Recommendation: Buy funding round in recent core portfolio addition ICEYE. The satellite imaging company has Closing Price: £5.36 secured $87m in a Series C funding round, led by True Ventures, with participation from Gerry Hennigan cornerstone investor OTB Ventures, Finnish Industry Investment (Tesi), DNX Ventures, +353-1-641 9274 Draper, Seraphim Capital, Promus Ventures and Space Angels. [email protected] Originating in 2014, ICEYE’s synthetic-aperture-radar (SAR) technology, which can operate day and night and through cloud cover, has to date launched five satellites. Initially focused on providing data analysis to the maritime industry as an aid to sail among icebergs — which is how the company got its name – the technology is increasing being deployed by corporates and government agencies in areas covering disaster management, insurance, finance, security and intelligence. Draper Esprit originally invested £3.7m as part of ICEYE’s $34m Series B round in May 2018. The latest funding round, which according to ICEYE was significantly larger than originally planned, will be employed to launch an additional four satellites this year and a further eight in 2021, materially increasing 24/7 data availability for all the continents. Valued at £13.9m in the Draper Core Portfolio in March, with an interest in the range of 6% - 10%, the ability of assets to raise funding against the backdrop of the pandemic bears testament to portfolio quality, providing confidence in the ability of Draper to achieve a forecast 20% uplift to FY21 ‘fair value’ relative to a NAV per share of 555p outlined in March. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 4 23 Sep.
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