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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 26 May 2016 Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Origin Enterprises FY16 EPS guidance set at 43-46c Company Events Dalata Hotel Group Announces new Dublin city centre 26-May Origin Enterprises; Q3 2016 Results 31-May ARYZTA; Q3 2016 Results hotel 01-Jun Wolseley; Q3 2016 Results HeidelbergCement Attractive financing terms on bond issue Banks Ulster Bank has €2.5bn par value portfolio for sale FBD Holdings Governor flags insurers need appropriate returns for underwriting Economic View Price growth returns to Dublin house prices Economic Events Ireland 31-May ILO Unemployment Rate May 2016 United Kingdom 26-May GDP SA May 2016 BBA Mortgage Approvals Apr 2016 27-May Nationwide House Prices May 2016 United States Europe 30-May Consumer Confidence Indicator May 2016 Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Morning Wrap Origin Enterprises FY16 EPS guidance set at 43-46c Origin’s Q3 IMS is consistent with the views expressed in its pre-close update a month ago. Recommendation: Buy Volumes and profits are being adversely impacted by the adverse weather conditions this Closing Price: €6.25 spring. Guidance is being set for FY16 at between 43-46c (Goodbody at the upper end at 45.3c). Liam Igoe +353-1-641 9450 [email protected] Agrii’s agronomy service revenue and crop protection (CP) volumes fell c.20% in Q3 due to the continued unseasonally and very wet conditions that persisted in Q3. The 20% fall is in line with the estimate given in April. Demand is expected to improve in Q4 which looks set to be better than last year, although most of the volumes lost through missed CP applications will not be recovered. Poland was, as previously announced, also badly impacted by adverse weather conditions. Severe frost and the absence of snow in Northern Poland led to the loss of 20% of the winter cropping area, with a similar knock-on impact on volume sales. The recently acquired Kazgod is being integrated with Dalgety to form Agrii Polska. In Ukraine volumes are higher this year reflecting new customer wins, though margins are tighter because of increased competitiveness due to on farm cash and income pressures. The acquisitions in Romania of Redoxim and Comfert have performed ahead of management’s expectations and they are in the process of being integrated into the Group, though continue to operate separately. Fertiliser volumes improved Q3, though the product mix, as expected, was of a lower margin. Volumes are expected to be broadly in-line for the full year in Ireland but lower in the UK. The feed ingredients businesses, which are reflected in both consolidated activities and within associates, saw higher volumes, because this particular business was a beneficiary of the adverse weather in FY16. Origin’s strategy has entailed acquiring agronomy businesses, improving their performance through investment and extracting the benefits of enhanced scale. This model has worked very well in the UK despite the current cyclical downturn in the sector and, we expect, will prove equally successful in Continental Europe. We remain positive on Origin’s prospects, do not expect to make material changes to our forecasts and retain our €7.30 price target and Buy recommendation. Home… Page 2 26 May. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Dalata Hotel Group Announces new Dublin city centre hotel Dalata Hotel Group announced this morning that it has exchanged contracts on the purchase Recommendation: Buy of a hotel development site in Dublin city centre, for a consideration of €8.1m. The site was Closing Price: €4.84 granted planning permission for a 137 bedroom hotel in November 2015. Management Kevin McDermott expects to commence construction in Q4 2016 with the hotel operational by mid-2018. Once +353-1-641 9162 completed it will operate as a 3 star Maldron hotel and the overall investment, including the [email protected] site purchase, will be c.€26m. We would expect this hotel to deliver a c.10% EBITDA return by year two of the investment. We believe this announcement is another positive investment given the significant undersupplied Dublin hotel market. RevPAR growth in Dublin in 2016 so far has been strong with STR reporting +26% yoy. Management expects to be fully invested by the year end. We remain confident in management’s ability to identify good investment opportunities and re-iterate our BUY recommendation. Home… HeidelbergCement Attractive financing terms on bond issue Yesterday, HeidelbergCement issued a €750m 8 year bond with a coupon of 2.25% and a Recommendation: Buy yield to maturity of 2.394%. Demand for the deal was high, being more than 4 times Closing Price: €76.16 oversubscribed. The proceeds are likely to be applied towards the financing of the upcoming Jason Molins Italcementi acquisition, and following a number of other refinancing deals in recent months, +353-1-641 9141 the company should have largely completed its funding requirements for the acquisition. [email protected] This deal comes on the back of the recent outlook change on the Ba1 rating by Moody’s to “Positive” from “Stable”. This is consistent with our expectation of the company returning to an investment grade rating during 2017, which was also echoed in the Moody’s report. Overall, the attractive funding terms combined with the recent announcement from Moody’s provides a positive backdrop for the credit profile of HeidelbergCement. This is important for shareholders as this will help facilitate increased shareholder returns both through a progressive dividend policy and possible share buybacks. Home… Page 3 26 May. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Banks Ulster Bank has €2.5bn par value portfolio for sale Ulster Bank looks to be lining up its last great asset sale with €2.5bn of par value loans for Eamonn Hughes +353-1-641 9442 sale in Project Oyster. Around one third are mortgages (c.€875m, with 900 owner-occupier [email protected] and c.2,000 buy-to-let), with half of the mortgages in the Dublin area and 95% are more than two years in arrears (most have had court dates as well). Two-thirds of the portfolio is Colm Foley +353-1-641 6042 business/SME related, typically with a property angle, with a small portion agri-related. The [email protected] loans are housed in Ulster Bank’s troubled management unit. Sarah Dunne +353-1-641 0482 In March, Ulster Bank ROI had £22.7bn of total assets. However, Ulster’s sale looks to be its [email protected] last reasonably sized legacy loan portfolio, leaving the business a cleaner entity going forward, just as the new CEO walks in the door in the next few weeks. His immediate objectives will likely include sustaining Ulster’s Q1 mortgage market share gains (mortgages are c.79% of the loan book) and a focus on the cost base (70% cost/income ratio in Q116, though 81% ex disposal gains). In addition, the disposal is likely to free up capital through reducing the bank’s RWA intensity (RWAs to total assets 92% in December vs 57% at AIB and 46% at BOI). Whilst AIB and BOI are looking to grow their loan books, the Ulster portfolio is heavily distressed, so we believe it is unlikely to be on the radar for the two main banks. For Ulster Bank, however, it removes a distraction and allows the incoming new CEO to focus on the core business. Home… FBD Holdings Governor flags insurers need appropriate returns for underwriting The Central Bank governor spoke yesterday at Insurance Europe’s annual international Recommendation: Hold conference in Dublin. The key message was that excessive risk taking by insurance firms as Closing Price: €6.33 they seek to compensate for current low investment returns can directly or indirectly be a Eamonn Hughes source of financial instability. He advised that general insurers in Ireland should avoid the +353-1-641 9442 temptation of getting involved in riskier assets to improve returns and that “rather, the focus [email protected] should be on an appropriate return from core underwriting activity”. Low investment returns are one of the key drivers in keeping FBD’s returns below trend until c.2018 or indeed, 2019, but the largest contributor is rising claims costs (flagged again in an Irish Independent article with the Insurance Ireland chief, Kevin Thompson). The industry will likely welcome the governor’s comments that he would prefer a greater focus on appropriate returns for underwriting – i.e. pricing appropriately for risk, likely leading to continued upward pricing pressure. The updated Book of Quantum, due to be published later this summer, should also be a helpful development for the insurance sector, providing an updated measure for standardising basic claims costs. Home… Page 4 26 May. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Economic View Price growth returns to Dublin house prices Official data, published yesterday, suggests that momentum is shifting in the direction of Dermot O’Leary +353-1-641 9167 house prices in Dublin. Having fallen for four consecutive months around the turn of the [email protected] year, residential prices in Dublin are now growing again. In April, prices rose by 1.6%, with the annual rate of growth rising to 4.6% (from 3.9%).
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