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The Quest for Legitimacy: the Egyptian State from Nasser to Sisi

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The Quest for Legitimacy: the Egyptian State from Nasser to Sisi THE QUEST FOR LEGITIMACY: THE EGYPTIAN STATE FROM NASSER TO SISI Ahmed Fahmy Shahin A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of St Andrews 2017 Full metadata for this item is available in St Andrews Research Repository at: http://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/ Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10023/15580 This item is protected by original copyright The Quest for Legitimacy: The Egyptian State from Nasser to Sisi Ahmed Fahmy Shahin University of St Andrews This thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of PhD at the University of St Andrews April 2017 The Quest for Legitimacy The Egyptian State from Nasser to Sisi Ahmed Fahmy Shahin PhD Thesis April 2017 2 Table of Contents Abstract………………………………………………………………..………………….………6 Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………………………….7 Declarations……………………………………………………………………...……….………11 Note on Transliteration…………………………………………………………………..……….14 Chapter One: Introduction, Analytical Framework, and Methodology ……………...…….……..15 1.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………...…….………15 1.2 Theoretical Review………………………………………………………………....….………18 1.2.1The Debate on Democracy and authoritarianism……………...……………….……..19 1.2.2 Beyond the dichotomy of democratisation vs. authoritarianism…..……………….…..21 1.2.3 Different Explanatory Approaches: Hybrid Regimes and Populist and post- populist Authoritarianism……………………………..…………………....……23 1.3 Research Questions……………………………………....……………………………..….….27 1.4 Conceptual Approach: Legitimacy………………………………………......………….….…..28 1.4.1 What is legitimacy?...............................................................................................28 1.4.2 Where does legitimacy come from?.........................................................................30 1.4.3 What sources of legitimacy are most paramount in Egypt’s political system? How this thesis will approach legitimacy?................................................................32 1.4.3.1 Eudaemonic legitimacy……….……..…………34 1.4.3.2 Ideological legitimacy…………..……………...35 1.4.3.3 Institutional legitimacy…………..............….….38 1.4.4 Who grants legitimacy?.........................................................................................40 1.4.4.1 Hezb el-kanaba (Couch Party)………………...…41 1.4.4.2 The youth of the middle class (YMC)……….….....42 1.4.4.3 Islamists………………………….………...44 1.5 Methodology…………………………………………………………………...………….…45 1.6 The thesis argument as developed through its chapters…………………………….……….…..47 Chapter Two: Founding the Benchmarks of Legitimacy …………….………………..………..51 2.1 The political economy of legitimacy..........................................................................................51 2.2 The power of ideology…………………………….………………………………………….56 2.3 Why democracy did not matter?................................................................................................60 3 2.4. Conclusion…………………………………………………..………………………...….…63 Chapter Three: Transformation for Adaptation (1967-1981) ..………………..…………...….64 3.1 The Crisis of legitimacy………………………………………………………..……….……64 3.2 Sadat’s Adaptation Strategies…………………………………………………………………66 3.2.1 From welfarism to infitah…………………………………….....……………….67 3.2.2 Egypt-First………………………………………………..……………………71 3.2.3 Bringing democracy back in?................................................................................75 3.3 Conclusion…………………………………………………..…………………………...….76 Chapter Four: Mubarak’s Legacy I, Institutional Legitimacy First …..……………...………..78 4.1 The semi-open society………………………………………...…………………...…………78 4.2 The Seeds of Neoliberalism…………….……………………………….………..…………..82 4.3 Moderate Foreign Policy and Fighting Terrorism……...…………….…………..…………….87 4.3.1 Foreign Policy…………………...………………………….…………..……...88 4.3.2 Political Islam and Fighting Terrorism……………………………………..……..90 4.3.3 Mubarak’s personal legitimacy……..…………………………………..………..93 4.4 Conclusion…..………..……………………………………………………………….…….94 Chapter Five: Mubarak’s Legacy II, The ‘Tawreeth’ Project ……………..……….......….…..97 5.1 Gamal Mubarak and the ‘tawreeth’ project……………………………..………………….….97 5.1.1 Gamal Mubarak and his associates………………...……………….……….……98 5.1.2 Political liberalisation or introducing the ‘tawreeth’?................................................104 5.1.3 The Army and the tawreeth………………...……….…….…………………..…107 5.2 The Heavy Costs of Foreign Policy……………………………………………….………..…110 5.3 The Bitterness of Neoliberalism…………………………………...……………….……..…..114 5.4 Conclusion………………………………………………………..………………………....119 Chapter Six: The Collapse of Legitimacy, The January Uprising ……………..………......…..120 6.1 The Middle Class……………………………………...…………………………...…..……120 6.1.1 Hezb el-Kanaba: The Victims of Neoliberalism…………………………………..120 6.1.2 The youth of the middle class (YMC): Explosion of Expectations……….…..……..123 6.1.3 Legitimising the Muslim Brotherhood……………………….……………….….128 4 6.2 Contentious Politics in the 2000s………………….……………………..……………....…..132 6.3 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………....…….136 Chapter Seven: The Vacuum of Legitimacy, Post-Uprising Egypt ….………...……...….…...138 7.1 Introduction………………..………………………………………………………….……138 7.2 Bringing ideological legitimacy back in: from consensus on democracy to contest over identity..139 7.2.1 Revolutionaries Vs. Conservatives………………………….…………………..139 7.2.2 Seculars Vs. Islamists....…………………………………………………..…...141 7.3 The road to negative legitimacy: from contest over identity to quasi-civil war………………....147 7.4 Negative legitimacy: security for consent……...………………………………………….….154 7.5 Conclusion…………………………………………………....………………………….....159 Chapter Eight: Conclusion ………………………………...…………………...………....160 8.1 Implications of the Research…………………………………………..……………....…….160 8.1.1 The First Implication……………...……………………...…....……………160 8.1.2 The Second Implication……………………………………………………..161 8.1.3 The Third Implication……………………………………………………….163 8.1.4 The Fourth Implication…………………………………………………...…165 8.1.5 The Fifth Implication……………………………...………………………....166 Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………….167 5 Abstract Egypt could be described as a unique case in the region with regard to Arab Uprisings. Egypt appears to be the only country in the Arab Uprisings states that tread on a different path. It survived the revolutionary wave without neither collapse nor sustainably democratise. Hence was the idea of this research: how could one explain the Egyptian case? I attempt to analyse the Egyptian politics through the lenses of legitimacy. Thus, this thesis studies the legitimacy of the postcolonial Egyptian state. It aims to show that through studying legitimacy; the reasons and dynamics behind the regime change/stability and the underlying logic of political change in Egypt could be understood. To achieve this goal, this thesis analyses the concept of legitimacy and its application on Egypt’s contemporary history. Three basic sources of legitimacy are identified as the most crucial in terms of their impact on political change in Egypt: eudaemonic, institutional, and ideological legitimacy. I argue that legitimacy is linked to state-formation: The relative weights of the abovementioned legitimacy components vary from one state-formation’s phase to the other, as every phase structurally determines which component is more important than the other, or, in other words, the phase of state formation invites the relevant type of legitimacy component for the ruler to rely on. However, each ruler indeed can choose the proper legitimacy type that fits the state-formation’s phase the country is going through, or avoid it and use, to the detriment of his rule, other legitimacy types. In this regard, Nasser created benchmarks of legitimacy that his predecessors found themselves obliged to, at least, not to ignore, otherwise facing the wrath of the people. Sadat and Mubarak attempted to rely more on institutional legitimacy to make for their decreasing levels of eudaemonic and ideological legitimacy. Although democratic legitimacy (a branch of institutional legitimacy) gained primacy after the Arab uprising in Egypt and the collapse of the Mubarak regime, many factors with the limitations of democratic legitimacy on the top of them caused the collapse of the political sphere after the brief democratic opening. Without a wide consensus on the state identity and the limits of the use of power, electoral democracy helps only to embody the deep divisions in the nation especially on the identity lines. This thesis thus argues that legitimacy, with its three component, is a pre-requisite to full sustainable democratisation. 6 Acknowledgments Scene number 1 When I started my PhD, my daughter, Lujayna, was 5 years old. She had no idea what I was doing for heaven's sake. She is now 11 years old, and she was the one who orally reviewed my work with me on the night of the Viva’s day. She surprisingly understood the meaning of ‘legitimacy’ and applied it to many day-to-day situations and cases, including her relation with her teachers and even her parents! For Lujayna I dedicate not only this thesis but also my whole life. I wish that this work would someday compensate her for the time I was busy working on this thesis. I also express my deep thanks to Nagla El-Baz, Lujayna's mother. Nagla is a unique person, and has been and will always be, one of my dearest friends. Thank you Nagla. May all your dreams come true and may you lead a life full of happiness and fulfillment. In the same context, I dedicate this work to the memory of Dr. Mohamed El-Baz, Lujayna’s late
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