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Doc No: FR – MR Transboundary Water Management in SADC DAM SYNCHRONISATION AND FLOOD RELEASES IN Transboundary Water Management in SADC THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN PROJECT DAM SYNCHRONISATION AND FLOOD RELEASES IN THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN PROJECT Final Report Executive Summary 31 March 2011 SWRSD ZambeziAnnex Basin Joint Venture2 Concepts and Recommendations for Dam Management 31 March 2011 SWRSD Zambezi Basin Joint Venture This report is part of the Dam Synchronisation and Flood Releases in the Zambezi River Basin project (2010-2011), which is part of the programme on Transboundary Water Management in SADC. To obtain further information on this project and/or progamme, please contact: Mr. Phera Ramoeli Senior Programme Officer (Water) Directorate of Infrastructure and Services SADC Secretariat Private Bag 0095 Gaborone Botswana Tel: +267 395-1863 Email: [email protected] Mr. Michael Mutale Executive Secretary Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat Private Bag 180 Gaborone Botswana Tel: +267 365-6670 or +267 365-6661/2/3/4 Email: [email protected] DAM SYNCHRONISATION AND FLOOD RELEASES IN THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN: ANNEX 2 TO FINAL REPORT Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS................................................................................................................................ I LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................................ IV LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................................... VI LIST OF ACRONYMS ..................................................................................................................................IX EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................XI 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 PURPOSE AND STRUCTURE OF THIS DOCUMENT ......................................................................................... 1 2 THE MAIN WATER RESOURCE COMPONENTS OF ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN RELEVANT TO THIS STUDY ................................................................................................................................ 4 3 EFFECTS OF LONG CYCLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON DAM OPERATIONS ................... 8 3.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................... 8 3.2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE ON CLIMATE SENSITIVITIES IN THE ZAMBEZI BASIN ........................................... 8 3.2.1 Summary of cyclicity in the Basin ........................................................................................................... 11 3.2.2 Review of literature on Climate Change in the Basin ................................................................................. 13 3.2.3 Conclusions on cyclicity and climate change............................................................................................... 20 3.3 IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF MULTI-YEAR PRE-DROUGHT/FLOOD EVENT CONDITIONS ........... 22 3.4 SCENARIOS TO PREDICT THE IMPACT OF FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES, BASED ON HISTORICAL TIME SERIES ................................................................................................................................. 31 3.4.1 Approach ......................................................................................................................................... 31 3.4.2 Changes in temperature, rainfall, evaporation, runoff and climate change scenarios............................................ 31 3.4.3 Results for Kariba reservoir .................................................................................................................. 32 3.4.4 Results for Cahora Bassa Dam ............................................................................................................ 39 3.5 EXPECTED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LOW WATER AND FLOODS ................................................ 41 3.6 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................... 43 4 WETLAND RETENTION AND ITS ENHANCEMENT ............................................................. 45 4.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 45 4.2 IDENTIFICATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF WETLANDS ON THE ZAMBEZI BASIN .............................. 46 4.3 QUANTIFICATION OF LAG AND ATTENUATION IN THE BAROTSE FLOOD PLAINS AND KAFUE FLATS ...... 51 4.3.1 Barotse flood plains ............................................................................................................................ 53 4.3.2 Chobe swamps ................................................................................................................................... 56 4.3.3 Kafue flats ........................................................................................................................................ 59 4.3.4 Estimation of Net Evaporation Losses of Wetlands .................................................................................. 63 4.4 OPTION TO ENHANCE WETLAND RETENTION ......................................................................................... 64 4.4.1 Simulated Impact of Climate Change on Wetlands Behaviour ..................................................................... 64 4.4.2 Options available to mitigate identified risks ............................................................................................ 67 4.5 OPTIONS FOR WETLAND RETENTION CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT ............................................................. 67 4.5.1 Methods of Enhancing Wetland Retention Capacity .................................................................................. 68 4.5.2 Feasibility of enhancing wetlands on the Zambezi basin.............................................................................. 68 4.5.3 Recommendations ............................................................................................................................... 69 5 REGULATION OF EXISTING LARGE RESERVOIRS ................................................................ 70 5.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 70 5.2 SITUATION ASSESSMENT .......................................................................................................................... 71 5.2.1 Description of present and past rules and modes of dam operation ................................................................. 71 5.2.2 Assessment of status of existing models and their applicability of on this study ................................................. 78 5.3 ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL DAM OPERATIONS FROM THE FLOOD PROTECTION AND ENVIRONMENT POINT OF VIEW ............................................................................................................................................................ 79 5.3.1 Large floods prior to Zambezi regulation ................................................................................................. 79 5.3.2 Large floods under Zambezi regulation ................................................................................................... 80 5.3.3 Changes in flow patterns with regulation ................................................................................................. 84 5.4 DESCRIPTION AND CONCEPTS AND PURPOSE OF ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS .............................................. 89 i DAM SYNCHRONISATION AND FLOOD RELEASES IN THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN: ANNEX 2 TO FINAL REPORT 5.4.1 Ecological assumptions and limitations underlying environmental flows .......................................................... 90 5.4.2 Benefits and costs of environmental flows for socio-economic and ecological river basin management goals ................ 91 5.4.3 Global examples of environmental flows for integrated river basin management ................................................ 92 5.5 SUMMARY OF IMPACT OF HISTORICAL RELEASES ON FLOW REQUIREMENTS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT ...... 94 5.5.1 Impact of environmental flows on fisheries ................................................................................................ 95 5.5.2 Impact of environmental flows on the prawn industry.................................................................................. 96 5.5.3 Impact of environmental flows on wildlife ................................................................................................. 96 5.5.4 Impact of environmental flows on agriculture ............................................................................................ 97 5.6 CONCEPTUALIZATION OF NEW MODES FOR DAM OPERATION TO INCORPORATE PRESCRIBED FLOODS .... 97 5.6.1 Operating rule scenarios for flood protection .............................................................................................. 97 5.6.2 Operating rule scenarios to incorporate prescribed floods .............................................................................. 99 5.6.3 Recommended rules for the protection of the environment ..........................................................................
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