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Zambezi River Basin Sustainable Agriculture Water Development Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe

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Zambezi River Basin Sustainable Agriculture Water Development Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe Zambezi River Basin Sustainable Agriculture Water Development Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe THE WORLD BANK © 2008 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet www.worldbank.org/rural E-mail [email protected] All rights reserved. This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accu- racy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or accept- ance of such boundaries. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, http://www.copyright.com/. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail [email protected]. Contents ABBREVIATIONS AND TERMS vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xiii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 SADC and the Zambezi Process 2 1.3 Objectives of This Study 2 1.4 Approach 3 1.5 Outline of the Report 3 2 The Zambezi River Basin 5 2.1 Basin Perspective 5 2.2 Current and Projected Water Use 10 2.3 Environmental Issues 11 2.4 Integrated Water Management Challenges in the Zambezi Basin 12 2.5 The Challenges Ahead 12 3 Potential for Growth in Irrigated Agriculture 17 3.1 Introduction 17 3.2 The Need for a Major Increase in Irrigated Agriculture 17 3.3 How Much Additional Irrigation Can be Developed 20 4 Viability of Irrigation Development in the Zambezi Basin 27 4.1 Background 27 4.2 Case Studies 28 iii iv Contents 4.3 Storage and Irrigation Development 32 4.4 Demand for Products of Irrigated Agriculture 35 4.5 Factors That Most Significantly Influence Costs 36 4.6 Risks 38 5 Farmer Demand, Policy, and Institutional Issues 41 5.1 Farmer Demand for Irrigation Infrastructure 41 5.2 Factors That Influence Profitability 44 5.3 Policy Framework 45 5.4 Poverty of Water Resource Information, Planning, and Management 46 5.5 Recent Innovations in the Region 48 6 The Way Forward 51 6.1 Strategic Objectives 51 6.2 Findings of the Study 51 6.3 Program Approach 56 6.4 Next Steps 58 ANNEXES Annex A. Regional Cooperation in the Zambezi River Basin 61 Annex B. The Zambezi River Basin 65 Annex C. Policy and Institutional Framework 79 Annex D. Alternative Approaches to Promoting the Growth of Irrigated Agriculture 83 Annex E. The Scope of Program Investments 91 NOTES 93 SELECTED REFERENCES 97 Figures 2-1 Zambezi River Basin 6 2-2 Population Density 7 2-3 Internal and Transbounday Renewable Water Resources 7 2-4 Utilization of Actual RWR (ARWR, Internal and Transboundary) 7 2-5 Internal and Actual RWR per Person 8 2-6 GDP and Agriculture Value Added (2003) 8 2-7 Cultivated Area within ZRB (Mha) 9 2-8 Utilization of ARWR by Sector (%) 9 2-9 Schematic of the Zambezi River Basin 13 3-1 Malawi: Smallholders in the Agriculture Sector as Percent of GDP 19 3-2 Current Average Maize Yields as a Percentage of Potential Irrigated Maize Yields 21 Contents v 3-3 Current Average Cereal Yields and Required Future Yields 21 3-4 Percent Change in Average Cereal Yields (2005–2020) Required to Achieve SSR=1 22 4-1 Malawi: Small-Scale Irrigation Development 28 4-2 Malawi SSIDS: Cost per Hectare and Economic Returns to Small-Scale Irrigation Development 29 4-3 Tanzania: Model Irrigation Schemes 32 4-4 Smallholder Scheme Size and Economic Viability 34 4-5 Storage Cost and Smallholder Scheme Viability 34 4-6 Gross Value Added and Smallholder Scheme Economic Viability 34 5-1 Factors That Lead to Lack of Farmer Ownership and Defensive Attitude Toward Government Irrigation Investment 43 5-2 Water for Agriculture Financing Model 49 B-1 Zambezi River Basin 65 B-2 Hydrograph of Mean Monthly Runoff from the Zambezi Catchment above Kariba Gorge, 1907–98, Showing Runoff Contribution from the Upper Zambezi Catchment (Mororwe) and Gwembe Valley Catchment (Gumbora) 66 B-3 Hydrographs of Mean Monthly Runoff from the Kafue Catchment above and below the Itezhi-Tezhi Reservoir and Runoff below the Kafue Gorge Dam (1977–98) 68 B-4 Hydrographs of the Mean Monthly Runoff at Cahora Bassa Gorge before and after Completion of the Cahora Bassa Reservoir 69 B-5 Comparison of Zambezi Basin Water Availability Estimates 71 B-6 Mean Annual Rainfall 72 B-7 Average Monthly Outflow from Kariba Dam (1961–1996) 72 B-8 Major Areas of Biodiversity in the Zambezi 74 B-9 Priority Environmental Management Areas, 2015 75 B-10 Schematic of the Zambezi River Basin 76 D-1 Smallholder Scheme Rehabilitation and Development Model and Process 84 D-2 Typical Scheme Selection Criteria 85 D-3 Water for Agriculture Financing Model 87 Tables 2-1 Area and Population of the Zambezi Basin 6 2-2 Existing Hydropower Development in the ZRB 9 2-3 ZACPRO 6 Estimate of Water Available for Future Development in the Zambezi River Basin 10 2-4 Number of Major Reservoirs in the Zambezi Countries 11 3-1 The Role of Agriculture in the Zambezi Basin Countries 19 3-2 2020 Potential Irrigated Area and Water Use in the Zambezi River Basin (SSR = 1) 22 3-3 Scenarios for Increased Irrigated CAH and Water Use 23 3-4 Rural Population (2005) 23 3-5 Potential Impact of Irrigation Expansion on Poverty in 2020 24 4-1 Malawi SSIDS: Variation in Financial Returns 29 4-2 Zimbabwe: Smallholder Scheme Economic Internal Rates of Return at Scheme Level (%) 30 4-3 Zimbabwe: SISP Scheme Unit Investment Costs (per ha) 30 4-4 Survey of Existing Government Smallholder Irrigation in the Eastern and Southern Provinces of Zambia 31 vi Contents 4-5 Utilization of Smallholder Schemes in the Eastern and Southern Provinces of Zambia 31 4-6 Average Irrigation Project Unit Costs for Sub-Saharan Africa (US$/ha in 2000 prices) 38 4-7 Most Significant Factors Found to Influence the Unit Cost of Investment and the Performance of Irrigation Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa 39 A-1 NEPAD–CAADP Project Priorities for Irrigation Development in the Zambezi Basin 63 B-1 Upper Zambezi Basin Land and Water Use 67 B-2 Middle Zambezi Basin Land and Water Use 69 B-3 Lower Zambezi Basin Land and Water Use 70 B-4 Comparison of Estimates of Water Availability in the Zambezi River Basin 71 Abbreviations and Terms AAP African Action Plan ACP Agricultural Commercialization Plan—Zambia AfDB African Development Bank ARA Regional Water Administration–Mozambique ARDA Agriculture and Rural Development Authority AREX Agricultural Research and Extension ARWR actual renewable water resources BIPP Bankable Investment Project Profile BWO Basin Water Office–Tanzania CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme CAH cereal area harvested CEM Country Economic Memorandum CN concept note DANIDA Danish International Development Agency DNA National Directorate of Water—Mozambique DNHA National Directorate of Hydraulic Agriculture DOI Department of Irrigation—Malawi DSS decision support system EFR environmental flow requirements ERR internal rate of return ESW economic and sector work ET evapo-transpiration EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FTLRP Fast Track Land Reform Programme–-Zimbabwe GEF Global Environment Facility GIS geographic information system GoZ Government of Zimbabwe GDP gross domestic product GNP gross national product GPZ Agency for Development Planning of the Zambezi Region (Mozambique) vii viii Abbreviations and Terms GVA gross value added HEP hydroelectric power plant HP horsepower ICR implementation completion report IDF Institutional Development Fund IDF Irrigation Development Fund—Zambia IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFST Irrigator Facilitation and Support Team IO irrigator organization IROP Integrated Rural Development Program IRWR internally renewable water resources IUCN World Conservation Union IWMI International Water Management Institute IWRM integrated water resources management JICA Japanese International Cooperation Agency LI low investment LSCF large-scale commercial farms MACO Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives–Malawi MADER Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MDGs Millennium Development Goals MERP Millennium Economic Recovery Programme Mha million hectares MI medium investment MIIF Marketing Improvement and Innovation Facility Mm3 million cubic meters MOAIFS Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Food Security—Malawi MOPH Ministry of Public Works and Housing MSAT Multidisciplinary Scheme Assessment Tean Mt metric ton MW megawatt NAMPAD National Master Plan for Agricultural Development (Botswana) NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development NGO nongovernmental
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