The Zambezi River Basin A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Public Disclosure Authorized V o l u m e 3 Public Disclosure Authorized State of the Basin Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized THE WORLD BANK GROUP 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 USA THE WORLD BANK The Zambezi River Basin A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Volume 3 State of the Basin June 2010 THE WORLD BANK Water ResouRces Management AfRicA REgion © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank or the governments they represent. 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Cover and interior design: The Word Express Cover photos: © Photographer Len Abrams/World Bank © Photographer Marcus Wishart/World Bank © Photographer Vahid Alavian/World Bank Contents Acknowledgments..................................................................................................................................... xi AbbreviAtions.And.Acronyms................................................................................................................xiii the.ZAmbeZi.river.bAsin:.bAckground.And.context............................................................................1 1.1 Motivation for This Analysis ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Summary of Findings ............................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Basic Characteristics of the Zambezi River Basin ............................................................................... 3 1.4 Population and Economy ....................................................................................................................... 7 1.5 Approach and Methodology .................................................................................................................. 7 1.5.1 Analytical framework .................................................................................................................. 8 1.5.2 The River/Reservoir System Model ............................................................................................. 9 1.5.3 The Economic Assessment Tool ..................................................................................................11 2.. biophysicAl.And.socioeconomic.context.......................................................................................13 2.1 Overview of Basin Hydrology ............................................................................................................. 13 2.1.1 Rainfall characteristics ............................................................................................................... 13 2.1.2 Runoff characteristics ................................................................................................................ 13 2.1.3 Subbasin characteristics ............................................................................................................. 15 2.2 Extreme Events....................................................................................................................................... 24 2.2.1 Floods ......................................................................................................................................... 24 2.2.2 Droughts .................................................................................................................................... 29 2.3 Climate Change ..................................................................................................................................... 30 2.4 Overview of the Basin Biophysics ....................................................................................................... 33 2.4.1 Biomes and river zones ............................................................................................................. 33 2.4.2 Bioregions and ecoregions .......................................................................................................... 34 2.4.3 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 40 2.5 Macroeconomic Overview .................................................................................................................... 40 2.5.1 Angola ........................................................................................................................................ 41 2.5.2 Botswana ................................................................................................................................... 43 2.5.3 Malawi ....................................................................................................................................... 43 2.5.4 Mozambique ............................................................................................................................... 43 2.5.5 Namibia ...................................................................................................................................... 44 2.5.6 Tanzania ..................................................................................................................................... 45 2.5.7 Zambia ....................................................................................................................................... 45 2.5.8 Zimbabwe ................................................................................................................................... 46 iii The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 2.6 Socioeconomic Overview ..................................................................................................................... 46 2.6.1 The Upper, Middle, and Lower Zambezi River Basin .............................................................. 46 2.6.2 Demographic development ......................................................................................................... 47 2.6.3 Income and poverty .................................................................................................................... 50 2.6.4 Livelihood ................................................................................................................................... 51 2.6.5 Gender and youth ...................................................................................................................... 57 2.6.6 Health and education ................................................................................................................. 57 3.. beneficiAl.uses.of.wAter..................................................................................................................61 3.1 Energy and Hydropower ...................................................................................................................... 61 3.1.1 Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) ...................................................................................... 61 3.1.2 Existing hydropower plants in the Zambezi River Basin .......................................................... 64 3.1.3 Potential hydropower projects in the Zambezi River Basin ..................................................... 66 3.1.4 SAPP energy sector development .............................................................................................. 71 3.1.5 Strengths and challenges of hydropower development in the Zambezi River Basin ................. 72 3.1.6 Opportunities and constraints for hydropower development in the Zambezi River Basin ....... 74 3.1.7 Characteristics and parameters of hydropower plants ............................................................... 75 3.2 Irrigated Agriculture ............................................................................................................................ 95 3.2.1 Regional policies for agriculture and irrigation development