Ecological Changes in the Zambezi River Basin This book is a product of the CODESRIA Comparative Research Network. Ecological Changes in the Zambezi River Basin Edited by Mzime Ndebele-Murisa Ismael Aaron Kimirei Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya Taurai Bere Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa DAKAR © CODESRIA 2020 Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa Avenue Cheikh Anta Diop, Angle Canal IV BP 3304 Dakar, 18524, Senegal Website: www.codesria.org ISBN: 978-2-86978-713-1 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording or any information storage or retrieval system without prior permission from CODESRIA. Typesetting: CODESRIA Graphics and Cover Design: Masumbuko Semba Distributed in Africa by CODESRIA Distributed elsewhere by African Books Collective, Oxford, UK Website: www.africanbookscollective.com The Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA) is an independent organisation whose principal objectives are to facilitate research, promote research-based publishing and create multiple forums for critical thinking and exchange of views among African researchers. All these are aimed at reducing the fragmentation of research in the continent through the creation of thematic research networks that cut across linguistic and regional boundaries. CODESRIA publishes Africa Development, the longest standing Africa based social science journal; Afrika Zamani, a journal of history; the African Sociological Review; Africa Review of Books and the Journal of Higher Education in Africa. The Council also co- publishes Identity, Culture and Politics: An Afro-Asian Dialogue; and the Afro-Arab Selections for Social Sciences. The results of its research and other activities are also disseminated through its Working Paper Series, Book Series, Policy Briefs and the CODESRIA Bulletin. All CODESRIA publications are accessible online at www.codesria.org. CODESRIA would like to express its gratitude to the Swedish International Develop- ment Cooperation Agency (SIDA), the Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY), the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Open Society Foundations (OSFs), Oumou Dilly Foundation, Ford Foundation and the Government of Senegal for supporting its research, training and publication programmes. Contents Foreword. ..................................................................................................................................................................................................vii Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................................................................................... ix List of Boxes, Figures, Plates and Tables ...................................................................................................................xi List of Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................................................................xvii Editors and Contributors ..........................................................................................................................................................xxi 1. Introduction and Background Taurai Bere, Mzime Ndebele-Murisa, Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya and Ismael Aaron Kimirei .......................................................................................................................................1 2. A Review of the Comparative Research Method Mzime Ndebele-Murisa, Ismael Aaron Kimirei, Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya, Geoffrey Chavula, Tongayi Mwedzi, Tendayi Mutimukuru-Maravanyika and Masumbuko Semba ........................................................................................................................................15 3. Trends in Ecological Changes: Implications for East and Southern Africa Ismael Aaron Kimirei, Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya, Mzime Ndebele-Murisa, Lulu Tunu Kaaya, Tinotenda Mangadze, Tongayi Mwedzi and Judith Natsai Theodora Kushata ......................................................................................................49 4. River Health Assessment in East and Southern Africa Lulu Tunu Kaaya, Taurai Bere, Tinotenda Mangadze, Ismael Aaron Kimirei and Mzime Ndebele-Murisa ................................................................83 5. Historical and Future Climate Scenarios of the Zambezi River Basin Masumbuko Semba, Mzime Ndebele-Murisa, Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya, Ismael Aaron Kimirei, Geoffrey Chavula, Tongayi Mwedzi, Tendayi Mutimukuru-Maravanyika and Sandra Zenda ............................................... 115 6. Hydrology of the Zambezi River Basin George V. Lugomela, Geoffrey Chavula and Tongayi Mwedzi .................................. 151 7. Environmental Flow Analysis of the Zambezi River Basin Rashid Tamatamah and Tongayi Mwedzi ........................................................................................ 183 8. A Synthesis of the Ecological Changes in the Zambezi River Basin: Lessons Learnt .................................................................................................................................... 211 Index.......................................................................................................................................................................................................221 . Foreword This is a fundamental book about a very important river basin located across eight countries in parts of the southern and east African region: The Zambezi River Basin. The approach adopted and developed for the Zambezi River Basin Catchment, using five river sub-catchments as case studies is innovative and with a systemic vision that takes into account the ecological conditions and the social dynamics. This approach was very much stressed in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; that is, by integrating the basic environmental functioning with uses of natural resources and local indigenous knowledge, it is possible to promote a full comprehension of the ecosystem services, their impact on the local and regional society and the impact of the multiple uses on the river ecosystem. Cultural differences, differing socio-economic systems, water and watershed governance are the key factors for future decisions and developments for strategic plans. The book thus has this dimension of an ecosystem dynamics description and a social, multiple use and economic analysis promoted by the various differing hydro- social characteristics of the five sub-catchments. The methodology and review of the Comparative Research Method, with the discussion on the approach, limitations, use, is excellent. The conceptual framework of the study, theory and hypothesis are well connected and an adequate framework for such a large-scale, scientific, technical and management undertaking. Equally important are the descriptions on the sub-basins’ functioning and conditions. The description of the ecological changes, socio-economic status in four countries and the major drivers and pressures in the Zambezi Basin is well articulated, precise and adequately informative. The discussion on the sustainability model of Venn is very welcome and relevant in this context. The information on climate changes, flow alternations, water pollution and poverty are also important, well-articulated and place the roots for the subsequent chapters. A fundamental contribution of the book is in the river health assessment in east and southern Africa. Comparative uses of indicators, sampling of biota analyses, are of prime interest and are well described and designed, and methodologically coherent. The future climate scenarios of the Zambezi River Basin, as placed in the book help to understand (again with a systemic approach) the integration of the impact of climate change on the ecosystem and on the society. These viii Ecological Changes in the Zambezi River Bassin processes are interdependent. The adaptive capacity of the communities in the river basin catchment of the Zambezi is a highlight of this book and has a very high strategic value. Equally important is the description of the hydrological dynamics of the Zambezi River Basin and the trend analysis of the discharge. Ecosystems services of the rivers depend upon the flow intensity, variations and tendency. This is the fundamental asset for considering then, the multiple uses, the intensity of the hydrological cycle and the impact of climate change. The environmental flow analyses are within this framework and conceptual basis. River flows, social processes, impacts and economic development are all integrated locally and regionally. The whole book has a strategic concept considering integrated water resource management. The description and analysis, the synthesis, the integration of concepts are relevant approaches to design new developments and to promote economic progress with high-level decision-making and prioritization on the environmental issues. The book has a great number of references and can be extremely useful worldwide due to the regional importance of the Zambezi River; but also by its innovative and creative approaches that advance environmental sciences at all levels. Prof Dr José Galizia Tundisi International Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management São Carlos, SP, Brazil 30 May 2017 Acknowledgments This book project is an output