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William (Bill) Cochrane and David Maré

Urban influence and population change

urban and rural areas within a core- in New Zealand periphery framework. In particular, approaches inspired by the trade theories Introduction of Nobel Prize winner Gunnar Myrdal (1963) have gained wide popularity While the New Zealand population overall continues to grow, (Veneri & Ruiz 2016: 7-9). Myrdal a large proportion of towns and communities in rural or differentiates between spread effects, the positive effects on peripheral localities, peripheral areas exhibit near-certain stagnation (Cameron when they share in the growth and wealth infra) or decline in their populations (Jackson & Brabyn of a primary-growth centre, and backwash effects, the negative effects on the infra). periphery arising from interaction with the growth centre. This is in part due to declining fertility who wish to avail themselves of the In terms of regional spatial processes and ageing, and in part due to migration employment opportunities available in Henry et al (1997) define spread-backwash for economic or amenity-related reasons urban labour markets, locate in the rural effects as: (Brabyn infra). areas contiguous with or close to urban This is not, however, the fate of all areas and commute to work. As a Spatially, spread-backwash processes such areas, as it has long been thought secondary effect the presence of these may be defined as the complex set of that rural areas can benefit from growth ‘commuters’ in an area may support local processes including government income spill-overs from nearby urban growth via the demand for local goods and expenditure flows, private capital agglomerations. These spill-overs arise as and services they generate. flows, trade, migration, commuting, workers with strong preferences for rural There has been a long tradition of and the diffusion of innovation) or less dense urban environments, but conceptualising the relationship between whereby the level of development of a peripheral area is changed due to Dr William Cochrane, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Science, University of Waikato. Dr David spatial relationships with a core area. Maré, Senior Research Fellow, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. (1997: 273)

Policy Quarterly – Volume 13, Supplementary Issue – June 2017 – Page 61 Urban influence and population change in New Zealand

The overall impact is the net of spread Table 1: Urban Rural Classification 2001 and backwash effects (Partridge et al Area Description 2007); however, the net effect may well be Main urban area The main urban areas including: Whangarei, Auckland, hard to determine as the effect size and Hamilton, Tauranga, Rotorua, Gisborne, Napier- direction can vary with the object of Hastings, New Plymouth, Wanganui, Palmerston North, interest. For instance, the impacts of Kapiti, Wellington, Nelson, Christchurch, Dunedin and proximity to a growth centre could differ Invercargill. between employment, income and Satellite urban community Towns and settlements with strong links to main population. urban centres through commuting. Satellite urban This conceptual framework is directly communities are defined as urban areas (other than translatable to the study of sub-national main urban areas) where 20% or more of the usually spaces, with the role served by a central resident employed population’s workplace address is in nation or trading block being taken by the a main urban area. dominant urban area and that of the Independent urban community Towns and settlements without significant dependence periphery by the smaller towns and rural on main urban centres. Independent urban areas surrounding the primary urban area communities are urban areas (other than main urban (Gaile 1980; Henry et al 1997). areas) where less than 20% of the usually resident Using a descriptive approach and employed population’s workplace address is in a main Statistics New Zealand’s (2004) urban-rural urban area. classification, we explore a range of impacts of urban-rural interaction and examine Rural area with high urban These rural areas can be thought of as being whether the spread or backwash effects influence intermediate between urban and rural areas. They lie dominate in the New Zealand context. outside urban areas but a significant proportion of the The article is structured as follows. In resident employed population work in a main urban the first section we outline the area. classification system that we use to Rural area with moderate urban To be classified in this category an area must either distinguish urban areas and the various influence have a large percentage of the resident employed levels of rurality. This provides us with a population working in a satellite or independent urban firm framework within which to discuss area, or a significant percentage, though less than the relationship between the level of areas with high urban influence, working in a main urban/rural interaction and a variety of urban area. demographic and labour market Rural area with low urban Most of the population in these areas works in a rural outcomes. The second section considers influence area although a number may work in an independent population change in the 2001-2013 urban area. period, disaggregated to the urban-rural Highly rural/remote area These are rural areas where there is minimal classification, both for the population as a dependence on urban areas in terms of employment, or whole and by ethnic group. Our aim here where there is a very small employed population. is to describe any systematic variation in Source: Based on Statistics New Zealand (2004). the age structure or pattern of population growth with the degree of urban influence. relationship between the two is no data as a basis for classification rather In the third section we reprise the straightforward matter, with there than population size, as with the standard approach taken in the second, but with being no standardised all-purpose Statistics New Zealand urban-rural the focus now on the labour market, definition. This is in no small part classification. Details of this schema are particularly the employment rate and the result of the elusive nature of the provided in Table 1 while Figures 1 and 2 occupation structure. The penultimate rural, with the word rural invoking a show the spatial distribution of these section briefly explores the patterns of variety of descriptions based in land areas. migration for the 2001-2013 period, again use (predominantly agricultural), The data used in this analysis is drawn by urban/rural classification, while the population density, isolation, small from the New Zealand Census of final section discusses the results of the communities and so on (Hart, Larson Population and Dwellings for the period previous sections and makes some & Lishner 2005; Maré & Poland 2005). 2001-2013 and aggregated to Statistics comments on the policy implications of As our focus is on urban/rural New Zealand’s urban-rural profile the descriptive findings. interaction in the New Zealand context classification. we adopt the experimental classification Urban/Rural Classification schema which was developed by Statistics Population Change in Rural and Urban Areas Defining what delineates urban from New Zealand in 2004. This classification Table 2 shows the distribution of the rural, and how to conceptualise the emphasised the use of commute to work usually resident population in 2001.

Page 62 – Policy Quarterly – Volume 13, Supplementary Issue – June 2017 Figure 1: Urban Rural Classification (North Island)

Source: Statistics New Zealand 2004 Overwhelmingly the usually resident category. This should be borne in mind Figure 3 shows strong evidence of population resides in the main urban when comparing rates of change over spread, with non-urban areas having a areas, 72 percent, with a further 14.6 time for the various areas in the urban- clear gradient in growth for the 2001-13 percent residing in some other urban rural classification discussed here. period, from a high of around 32 percent

Policy Quarterly – Volume 13, Supplementary Issue – June 2017 – Page 63 Urban influence and population change in New Zealand

Figure 2: Urban Rural Classification (South Island)

Source: Statistics New Zealand 2004 in areas of high urban influence to a low amount intermediate between that of the Figure 4 disaggregates the population of 8 percent in areas with a low urban high and moderate influenced rural areas, growth 2001-13 by broad age group. The influence. This is in contrast to the most again indicative of a hierarchy of growth first feature to stand out is that, with the remote category, highly rural/remote, in the peripheral areas that runs from exception of major urban areas, the age which contracted by about -0.5 percent in high growth, high urban influence, to low group that experiences the highest the same period. growth, low urban influence, that is, high growth is that aged 65 and over. This is to When considering the urban areas, levels of commuting to low levels be expected given the ageing of the ‘Baby satellite urban communities grow by an commuting. Boomer’ cohort discussed throughout

Page 64 – Policy Quarterly – Volume 13, Supplementary Issue – June 2017 Table 2: 2001 Usually Resident Population by Urban-Rural Classification Urban Influence Urban Rural/ remote Low Moderate High Independent Satellite Main Total Usually Resident 51195 196614 134988 105156 417552 114468 2617812 3637785 Population % 1.4 5.4 3.7 2.9 11.5 3.1 72.0 100.0 Source: Statistics New Zealand 2001-2013 Census of Population and Dwellings this issue. For the rural population, those group (4 percent). Restricting ourselves to Considering Figure 51 and taking 2001 in rural/remote and low-high urban the non-urban areas we again see a as a base year it is apparent that the influence categories, higher levels of continuum of high urban influence/high majority of the population in the areas urban influence are associated with grow to low urban influence/low growth considered at least partially identify as higher levels of growth in the 65 years with satellite urban areas seeing growth in European New Zealanders. There is, and over population. Turning to the the 15-24 age group intermediate between however, some variation in the proportion urban areas, the growth in the 65 years that of the high and moderate urban European, with over 90 percent of the and over category is again the growing influence areas. population of areas with high urban age group for satellite and independent Lastly, we look at the youngest of the influence so identifying, compared with urban areas; however for the major age groups, those aged 0-14 years, which around 77 percent in the major urban urban areas, growth in the older working are strongly related to the vitality of an areas. For the non-urban areas, the age population, those aged 45-64 years, is area’s population. The areas considered gradient observed in Figures 3 and 4 is less slightly higher (by around 3 percentage here split into two clear groups in terms of pronounced here, with European points). This latter group of older the growth of the 0-14 age group. One affiliation declining from the 90 percent working age people is, with the exception group, made up of independent urban, in high urban influence areas to a low of noted above, the second fastest growing low urban influence and remote/rural 86 percent in remote/ rural areas. Urban group, with growth 2001-13 varying areas, experiences declines of between -9 areas have notably lower levels of between 67 percent in areas with high percent and -12 percent while the main, European affiliation than non-urban. urban influence to 12.5 percent in rural/ satellite and high influence urban areas Turning to those who identify as remote areas. Again there is a clear grow by between 5 percent and 14 percent. Mäori, the 2001 proportions vary gradient among the non-urban areas, The moderate urban influence is markedly between area types, with Mäori with high levels of urban influence being intermediate between these two groups being around 18-20 percent of the associated with high levels of population with growth in the 0-14 age group being population in independent, satellite growth while lower levels of urban close to zero (-0.6 percent). urban, low urban influence and remote/ influence are associated with lower levels Figure 3: Percentage Change in Usually Resident Population 2001-13 of population growth. by Urban-Rural Classification The younger working age population, 25-44 years, declines in all areas except satellite urban and major urban areas. Rural/remote This decline is particularly pronounced in the rural/ remote, low urban influence Low influence areas and, to a lesser extent, independent rural areas, creating a dichotomy between Moderate influence areas with significant decline in this age group (in the range of 10-17 percent) and those with low levels of decline or growth High influence (-3.5 to 2 percent). People in the 15-24 year age group are Independent Urban either in education or training, or attaching to the labour market, making Satellite Urban them particularly important to an area’s economic vitality. Of the various areas Main urban considered here, areas with high levels of urban influence have enjoyed the largest increases in this age group 2001-13 (37 0102030 % Population change 2001-2013 percent), while independent urban areas experienced the lowest growth in this age Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2001-2013 Census of Population and Dwellings.

Policy Quarterly – Volume 13, Supplementary Issue – June 2017 – Page 65 Urban influence and population change in New Zealand

Figure 4: Percentage Change in Usually Resident Population 2001-13 existing populations still approximately by Age & Urban-Rural Classification double the number of those identifying as Asian in the 2001-2013 period. Another factor in the rapid growth in the Rural/remote proportions of Asians in rural/remote or low urban influence regions may be the Low influence recent trend to employ foreign workers, particularly from the Philippines, in Moderate influence various agricultural or horticultural roles

High influence in peripheral areas (Trafford and Tipples 2012). Independent Urban In terms of the other ethnicities the growth in those identifying as European Satellite Urban is greatest in areas of high urban influence, being almost twice as high (28 percent) Main urban as the next highest growth rate (satellite urban areas, 15.6 percent). European -25 0 25 50 75 100 125 population shares declined somewhat % Population change in age group 2001-2013 in remote/rural (-5.1 percent) and 0-14yrs 15-24yrs 25-44yrs 45-64yrs 65 plus yrs independent urban (-1.8 percent) areas, but were positive in the remaining areas. Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2001-2013 Census of Population and Dwellings.

Figure 5: Percentage Usually Resident Population (2001) Identifying with Employment in Rural and Urban Areas Ethnicity by Urban-Rural Classification The employment rate, that is, the ratio of the total number of people employed to the 2 Rural/remote working age population, shown in Figure 7 is a good measure of the utilisation of Low influence labour in an area. It serves as an alternative to the conventional unemployment rate Moderate influence and is in some ways preferable as it is more robust to definitional issues arising High influence from the distinction between ‘not in the

Independent Urban labour force’ and ’unemployed‘ (Murphy & Topel 1997). Satellite Urban In general the non-urban areas have employment rates higher than the urban, Main urban the gap typically being 6 to 10 percentage points. Areas of high urban influence have 0 20 40 60 80 100 the highest employment rates in both % Population Identifying 2001 (70.9 percent) and 2013 (70.7 European MāoriPacific Peoples Asian percent), while independent urban areas

Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2001-2013 Census of Population and Dwellings. have the lowest in both 2001 (56.6 percent) and 2013 (57.7 percent). rural areas while in the main urban and in the major urban areas (8.8 percent), Considering change over time, most of high urban influence areas the proportion with lesser concentrations in satellite the employment rates are stable with the is between 11 percent and 13 percent. urban areas (2.7 percent) and the 2001-2013 difference in rates in most Pacific peoples are primarilyremaining areas being in the 1 percent to areas being under one percentage point. concentrated in the main urban areas, 2 percent range. The exceptions to this are independent accounting for 8.5 percent of those Figure 6 shows the percentage change urban areas (1.1 percentage point) and populations, with the proportion of in persons identifying with each ethnicity. satellite urban areas (2.6 percentage independent and satellite urban The most striking feature of this is the points). communities being between 2 percent rapid increase in the number of people Having discussed the level of and 3 percent, and the remaining areas identifying as Asian across all areas. Part engagement with the labour market of the close to 1 percent. Those identifying as of this may be a low baseline (see Figure 5 population in the areas under Asian are distributed in a manner similar and Table 2) in the case of non-urban consideration we turn now to what the to Pacific peoples, primarily concentrated areas, however areas with substantial pre- population actually does; that is, what

Page 66 – Policy Quarterly – Volume 13, Supplementary Issue – June 2017 occupations the usually resident Figure 6: Percentage Change in Usually Resident Population 2001-13 populations are engaged in. Occupational by Ethnicity and Urban-Rural Classification category captures not only the job an individual does, but also serves as an indicator of how much human capital the Rural/remote individual possesses, their likely income and their social status (Milne et al 2013). Low influence The distribution of the population of an area between occupations, then, is a good Moderate influence guide to the socio-economic context of that area. High influence Figure 8 shows the occupational distribution for each of the areas in 2001. Independent Urban The occupational classification used is NZSCO993 rather than ANZSCO4 as we Satellite Urban wished to look at change over the 2001-13 (see Figure 7) period5. Main urban As a baseline we start by looking at the 2001 occupational structure. The most striking feature is the clear relationship 0 50 100 150 200 250 % Change in Population Identifying between the degree of urban influence European MāoriPacific Peoples Asian and the proportion of the population Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2001-2013 Census of Population and Dwellings. involved in manual occupations. The rural/remote areas have nearly 70 percent Figure 7: Employment Rate (%) by Urban-Rural Classification of their work force involved in manual labour while the areas with high urban influence have less than half this (33 Rural/remote percent). Major urban areas have the least participation in manual occupations (21 Low influence percent) while independent and satellite Moderate influence urban areas are very similar to areas with high urban influence, with participation High influence in manual occupations 32 percent and 34 percent. Independent Urban At the other end of the skills spectrum, employment in management/professional Satellite Urban occupations in non-urban areas also gradate, albeit in the opposite direction to Main urban manual occupations, with higher degrees of urban influence being associated with higher levels of participation in 0 20 40 60 80 % Employment Rate management/professional occupations. 2001 2013 When comparing areas of high urban Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2001-2013 Census of Population and Dwellings. influence with the urban areas it can be seen that the level of participation in while in the independent urban and Having considered the baseline 2001 management/professional occupations is moderate influence areas this proportion occupational distribution we turn now to higher in the high urban influence areas is 5 or 6 percentage points lower, with the look at the changes in this distribution for (26.5 percent) than either satellite or remaining two groups, low urban the 2001-13 period (Figure 9). Growth in independent areas (by around 6 influence and rural/remote areas, being the management/ professional group has percentage points), but lags the main around 6%-10%. been rapid, with this group being the fast urban areas by approximately 3 percentage Lastly, the proportion in the clerical/ growing occupation in all but the rural/ points. sales group is roughly equal in the main, remote and low urban influence areas. In The technical and trades occupational satellite and independent urban areas particular growth in the management/ group is around 20-23 percent of the (26%-29%), while the remaining areas professional category in satellite urban employed in the main urban, satellite range between 12 percent (rural/remote) and high urban influence and medium urban and high urban influence areas, and 20 percent (high urban influence). urban influence areas is very high, with

Policy Quarterly – Volume 13, Supplementary Issue – June 2017 – Page 67 Urban influence and population change in New Zealand

Figure 8: Percentage Employed (2001) by Occupation & Urban-Rural Classification (10.8 percent), while declines of 2 percent to 4 percent are reported in rural/remote, low urban influence and independent Rural/remote urban areas.

Low influence Place of Residence 5 years ago One of the few sources of information Moderate influence on sub-national migration comes from the census question on where a person High influence usually lived five years ago6. This question gives us some insight into the recent

Independent Urban mobility of the usual residents of an area. The discussion here will mainly focus on people who were at their current residence Satellite Urban 5 years ago, people who were elsewhere in New Zealand 5 years ago, and those who Main urban were overseas. The largest single category in Figure 10 across all areas is those whose place of 0 20 40 60 80 % of Total Employment usual residence is the same as their usual Management/ProfessionalTechnical/TradesClerical/Sales Manual address 5 years ago, that is, they have not moved or they moved away and then Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2001-2013 Census of Population and Dwellings. returned to their initial area of usual Figure 9: Percentage Change in the Usually Resident Employed Population 2001-13 residence. For the areas of low, medium by Occupation & Urban-Rural Classification and high urban influence, those who have not moved narrowly constitute an

Rural/remote absolute majority (51 percent - 53 percent), however for the main urban and

Low influence satellite urban areas the proportion of people in this category is some 5-6

Moderate influence percentage points lower. Around 36 percent of the population of rural/remote and low-high urban High influence influence areas were elsewhere in New Zealand 5 years prior to the 2013 census. Independent Urban In the urban areas those who are in the ‘elsewhere in NZ’ category constitute Satellite Urban between 40 percent (main urban areas) and 42 percent (satellite urban areas) of Main urban the population, with the rural/remote category, at 48 percent, being intermediate

0 20 40 60 80 between the areas under urban influence % Change in Occupation and the urban areas themselves. Management/ProfessionalTechnical/TradesClerical/Sales Manual Total The ‘not born 5 years ago’ category Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2001-2013 Census of Population and Dwellings. varies by under 2 percentage points, from a low of 6.5 percent in areas of high urban growth rates of 70 percent, 74 percent and urban influence. For the urban areas influence to a high of 8.1 percent in rural 64 percent respectively. growth in the main and independent or remote areas. The next fast-growing group is the areas is low, under 2 percent in both cases, ‘Overseas 5 years ago’ is the category technical/trades group in, again, all but but is notably higher, 18 percent, in that potentially excites the most interest the rural/remote and low urban influence satellite urban areas. given its relationship to the controversial areas, where this category is the fastest Growth in the manual occupational topic of migration. While the proportion growing. For clerical/sales in the non- category is modest to negative across all of the population overseas 5 years ago is urban areas, growth increases with urban areas. The highest growth in this category relatively small, less than 10 percent in all influence from 13 percent in rural and is 11 percent in satellite urban areas, cases, the areas under consideration fall remote areas to 29 percent in areas of high similar to the high urban influence areas into 3 distinct groups; the main urban

Page 68 – Policy Quarterly – Volume 13, Supplementary Issue – June 2017 areas where the proportion of people Figure 10: Where were you 5 years ago? (2013) overseas 5 years ago is considerably larger, by 3.5 percentage points or more, than the Rural/remote other areas; satellite urban, independent urban and rural/remote, where the proportion is 4.5% - 5%, and the Low influence remainder with the proportion overseas 5 years ago being close to 4 percent. Moderate influence

Discussion and Policy Implications High influence In this section we reflect on the empirical patterns described and consider a few of Independent Urban their policy implications.

The first point to note is that the Satellite Urban description of the various areas in the urban-rural profile offered here is at a Main urban very high level of aggregation, hence much of the spatial heterogeneity7 that no doubt exists in relations between urban 0 10 20 30 40 50 core and rural periphery (and the % of Those stating gradations between the two) will have Usual Residence Somewhere Else in NZ Not Born Overseas Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2001-2013 Census of Population and Dwellings. been suppressed. Essentially we have an averaging effect that extinguishes the employment rate and growth in high Looking at the urban categories, variability within the categories skilled jobs), and second best on the independent urban areas do not fare well considered, hence actual conditions in a remaining variable (employment in high with their performance on population specific location might differ markedly skill jobs). This would seem to be more growth, employment rate, and growth in from the average values presented here. consistent, at least at this highly aggregated high skilled employment, being either the Table 3 summarises some of the key level, with the spread interpretation of worst or the second to worst of the outcomes discussed above by rank order urban-rural interaction, than with categories. On the other hand the with 1 indicating that that area has the backwash. If backwash effects dominated performance of the independent urban highest value, and 7 the lowest, on the we would expect to see a more muted areas on the dimension of the level of variable under consideration. As noted performance on the variables in Table 2. employment is in the top half of the earlier (see Table 1) the high urban For the other non-urban areas, rankings. This, combined with the low influence areas have the highestperformance declines with the degree of rate of growth in high skilled jobs, is interaction, through travel to work urban influence, that is, high > moderate indicative of a relatively stable commuting, with urban areas of all the > low > rural/remote corresponding to a occupational share of skilled workers in non-urban categories. The performance9 clear pattern of level of urban influence the population. Satellite urban areas of the high urban influence area on the equating to the performance of the area. resemble high urban influence areas on four outcome variables considered is very Again this is what one would expect to see several dimensions, being second to them good, with this category being the best if a spread interpretation of urban-rural in the population growth and growth in performing of the areas on three of the interaction held. high skilled jobs ranking, but having outcome variables (population growth, somewhat worse, though still middling,

Table 3: Rank of Area by Outcome Variable Urban Influence Urban Rural/Remote Low Moderate High Independent Satellite Main

Population Growth 7 5 3 1 6 2 4 (2001-2013) Employment Rate (2001) 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 % Employed in High Skill Jobs1 7 6 5 2 3 4 1 (2001) % Growth in High Skilled Jobs 7 5 3 1 6 2 4 (2001-13) Rank 1 (Highest) to 7 (Lowest)

Policy Quarterly – Volume 13, Supplementary Issue – June 2017 – Page 69 Urban influence and population change in New Zealand performance on the other dimensions Briefly, let us consider what this might mountain; however, it is possible to make considered. The main urban areas, while mean from a policy perspective. It would somewhere a nicer place to live by building having the highest level of high-skilled seem that on the basis of the descriptive social capital in the area, fostering the labour at the beginning of the period evidence presented here, the success of an development of pony clubs or sporting (2001), are ranked fourth out of the seven area outside of the urban areas is in part teams for instance, or providing urban-rural categories for both associated with the level of interaction that convenient schooling or childcare for population growth and the growth in area has with urban areas. As the areas used commuters. high-skilled labour, while they are fifth on here are predominantly defined with The take away message here is that for the employment rate (2001). This would respect to the travel to work behaviour of those in the vicinity of urban areas the use indicate that on many dimensions the the usually resident population this is of infrastructural investment and/or the main urban areas perform considerably largely a story based on locational choice, improvement of local amenities maybe a worse than the high urban influence areas that is, the decision on where a household viable approach to development. However, that tend to surround them. will locate. Locational choice in turn arises if it is not possible to commute to a main Given that on this reading the high from a complex interaction of the value a urban area or the location lacks amenities, urban influence areas are the best household places upon a locations it may prove difficult to foster growth in a performing, it is interesting to return to amenities, the cost of commuting and the locale absent some innovative strategy. our discussion of the age and ethnic budget constraint faced by the household 1 Note that the official measure of ethnicity used in New characteristics of these areas. From Figure (Partridge et al 2010). Zealand allows individuals to identify with more than 5 it is clear the high urban influence areas If a rural area wishes to increase the one ethnic group, hence the ethnicities used here are not mutually exclusive – see Callister et al (2007: 301-310) have the highest level of people identifying level of interaction with urban areas with for a discussion of the measurement of ethnicity in New Zealand. as European in 2001 (in keeping with the the aim of improving its population 2 Where the Working Age Population is the usually resident other non-urban areas) and the highest growth and economic success it has two population aged 15 years and over. It should be noted that the New Zealand practice of defining the working age growth in people identifying as European main avenues open to it: decrease the cost population in these terms differs from many countries, where 2001-2013. In terms of ageing the high of commuting and/or increase the the working age population is defined as those aged 15 to 64 years (Statistics New Zealand 2017). urban influence area has the highest amenity value of the area. This assumes of 3 For ease of exposition we have aggregated the NZSCO major groups as follows; Management/Professional consists of growth of all the areas in the 65 years plus course that there is little local government the NZSCO categories of Legislators, Administrators and group, the 45-65 year age group, and the can do short run about local income Managers and Professionals; Technical/Trades of Technicians and Associate Professionals and Trades Workers; Clerical/ 15-24 year age group. Hence, considering levels. Sales of Clerks and Service and Sales Workers; and, Manual which is comprised of Agriculture and Fishery Workers, Plant also our previous discussion, it would Decreasing the cost of commuting and Machine Operators, and Assemblers and Elementary appear that these areas are largely could be achieved by a number of means, Occupations. 4 Details of these classification schema are to be found here: European, with high occupational (in engineering enhancements to motor http://www.statistics.maori.nz/~/media/Statistics/surveys- terms of skill) attainment and rapidly vehicles or lowering the cost of fuel for and-methods/methods/class-stnd/occupation/NZSCO- 99-manual.pdf and http://www.stats.govt.nz/methods/ growing older populations. example, but many of these factors lie well classifications-and-standards/classification-related-stats- standards/occupation.aspx. Bringing this all together then, the beyond the control of local governance. 5 Classification of occupation by ANZSCO is not readily area of main interest here, areas of high What is open to control, albeit within available for the 2001 census year. 6 The actual question (question 7) in the 2013 Census of urban interest, have managed to maintain often tight bounds, is investment in Population and Dwellings read: ‘Where did you usually live 5 years ago, on 5 March 2008?’ or grow their populations (Figure 3), infrastructure; upgrading the road 7 Essentially spatial heterogeneity refers to the variation of a employment rates (Figure 7) and skills network or improving the provision of phenomenon across space (Anselin 2010). 8 High skill job refers to employment in the managerial/ levels despite having: high growth in the public transport both might facilitate professional category. older population (Figure 4), the lowest growth (economic and/or population)10 9 Here performance is equated with high values on the measure being considered. proportion of people not born 5 years ago by reducing the amount of travel time and 10 See Cochrane et al (2016) for a discussion of the impacts of (Figure 10), low gross international cost of travel. local infrastructural investment in a New Zealand context. migration (Figure 10), and a pattern of Improving the amenity value of an internal migration similar to other non- area might be somewhat harder, as it is urban areas (Figure 10). difficult to conjure forth a scenic lake or

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Victoria Professional and Executive Development High quality professional and executive development courses specifically designed for the public sector:

MACHINERY OF GOVERNMENT UNDERSTANDING FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND -> Fri 23 June, 9am-4:30pm BUDGETS IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR -> Fri 1 September, 9am-4:30pm -> Tue 27 & Wed 28 June, 9am-4:30pm -> Wed 1 November, 9am-4:30pm -> Tue 3 & Wed 4 October, 9am-4:30pm

STRATEGIC THINKING FOR GOVERNMENT MANAGING STAKEHOLDERS: A SYSTEMS APPROACH -> Thu 12 October, 9am-4:30pm -> Fri 30 June, 9am-4:30pm -> Wed 11 October, 9am-4:30pm PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCE FUNDAMENTALS -> Wed 23 August, 9am-4:30pm ADVANCED POLICY LEADERSHIP WORKSHOP -> Tue 4 & Wed 5 July, 9am-4:30pm ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS -> Mon 27 & Tue 28 November, 9am-4:30pm IN PUBLIC POLICY -> Wed 27 & Thu 28 September, 9am-5pm SYSTEMS THINKING -> Wed 26 & Thu 27 July, 9am-4:30pm ENGAGING EFFECTIVELY WITH YOUR STAKEHOLDERS -> Thu 21 & Fri 22 September, 9am-4:30pm -> Fri 8 September, 9am-4:30pm -> Tue 5 December, 9am-4:30pm USING DATA: DISCOVERY, ANALYSIS, VISUALISATION AND DECISION-MAKING ENGAGING THE PUBLIC EFFECTIVELY USING SOCIAL -> Mon 31 July & Tue 1 August, 9am-5pm MEDIA -> Mon 20 & Tue 21 November, 9am-5pm -> Wed 30 & Thu 31 August, 9am-4:30pm

We can also deliver in-house courses, customise existing courses or design new programmes to suit your requirements We also run courses at our Auckland training rooms. For more course dates, further information and to enrol visit www.victoria.ac.nz/profdev or call us on 04-463 6556.

Policy Quarterly – Volume 13, Supplementary Issue – June 2017 – Page 71