Indonesia Morning Cuppa 9 June 2021
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Indonesia Daily 9 June 2021 Indonesia Morning Cuppa Top Story Indosat (ISAT IJ, NEUTRAL, TP: IDR7,000) – DOWNGRADE Most Positives Already Priced In; Now NEUTRAL Company Update Downgrade to NEUTRAL from Buy, unchanged IDR7,000 TP implies 10% upside, with c.1% FY21F yield. Indosat’s share price has risen by 26% YTD, and is close to its 13-year high and our TP. We believe that most of the good news on its potential merger with Hutch 3 Indonesia is priced in already. The deal could take 1.5-2 years, so we may not see the actual positive impact on the merged entity’s financials until then. ISAT is trading at 4.3x 2021F EV/EBITDA, which is at a premium of nearly 10% from XL Axiata’s (EXCL IJ, BUY, TP: IDR3,350) current valuation. Analysts: Michael Setjoadi +6221 5093 9844, Marco Antonius +6221 5093 9849 Today’s Report: Indosat : Most Positives Already Priced In; Now NEUTRAL (9 Jun 2021) Previous Report: Indosat : 1Q21 Results Within Expectations; Still BUY (21 May 2021) Indonesia Market wrap The JCI dropped -1.2%, mostly driven by LQ45’s -1.3%. The biggest drop came from healthcare (-2.4%), followed by consumer non-cyclicals (-1.8%), basic materials (-1.6%), consumer cyclicals (-1.5%), and finance (-1.4%). Only one sector traded in green territory, IDX Technology (+13.4%). Foreigners finally printed a net sell in the Indonesia market at IDR262bn, with IDR273bn in the regular and a net buy of IDR10.8bn in the negotiable markets after six consecutive days of net buys. Foreigners were buying up Astra International (+0.5%), Bank Negara Indonesia (flat), United Tractors (+2%), Indo Tambangraya (+ 3.5%), and Telkom Indonesia (-1.4%) while selling Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT; +6.6%), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI; -1.1%), Bank Mandiri (BMRI; -2%), Sarana Menara Nusantara (-2.8%), and Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (-5.5%). Market traded on a good volume of 26bn shares worth IDR11.1trn. Top JCI movers in the market yesterday were DCI Indonesia (+20%), Tower Bersama Infrastructure (+4.8%), Saratoga Investama Sedaya (+14.3%), AMRT (+6.6%), and MNC Investama (+29.3%). Top laggards: Bank Central Asia (-1.5%), Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna (-6.8%), BBRI (-1.1%), BMRI (-2%), and UNVR (-2.7%). On the currency side, the IDR traded slightly strengthened with the USD at IDR14,253 (-0.1%) to the US currency while Indo 10- year yields slightly dropped to 6.406%. See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Indonesia Daily 9 June 2021 Chart 1: Industry group relative to the JCI Table 2: Commodities & currencies (8 Jun 2021) 140.0% Last DoD YTD YoY MoM 118.3% 120.0% Value (%) (%) (%) (%) 100.0% Oil Price 72.2 1.0 39.4 77.0 5.8 80.0% (Brent) 60.0% 40.0% Oil Price 70.1 1.2 44.4 79.9 8.0 (WTI) 20.0% 1.4% 6.6% 2.3% 2.7% 0.0% Coal Price -1.0% -4.1% 122.8 0.9 52.5 123.8 27.7 -20.0% -7.7% -8.2% -1.8% (USD/ton) -15.8% -40.0% CPO Price 4,049.0 (1.9) 12.5 72.4 (8.5) (MYR/ton) Energy Soy Oil Price Property 1,589.4 1.8 66.4 156.5 8.6 (USD/ton) Industrials Healthcare Technology Infrastructure Basic Material Nickel 17,912.8 0.3 8.2 37.9 (0.8) (USD/ton) Financial Services Consumer Cyclical Tin (USD/ton) 32,908.0 3.5 60.2 94.7 0.6 Consumer Non-Cyclical Transportation & Logistic Table 1: Regional markets (8 Jun 2021) Gold 1,892.9 (0.3) (0.2) 10.4 3.2 (USD/oz) Bloomberg Code Last DoD YTD YoY value (%) (%) (%) Wheat 685.0 0.7 9.0 26.3 (10.1) (USD/bu) Dow Jones : DJI 34,600 (0.1) 13.0 25.5 Corn 609.5 1.1 40.2 61.5 (4.2) Nasdaq : Nasdaq 13,925 0.3 8.0 40.3 (USD/bu) UK : FTSE 7,095 0.3 9.8 12.0 USD/IDR 14,253.0 0.1 (1.4) (2.6) (0.4) Hong Kong : HSI 28,781 (0.0) 5.7 14.9 EUR/IDR 17,359.4 (0.1) (0.4) (9.6) (0.4) Indonesia : JCI 5,999 (1.2) 0.3 19.2 MSCI : EIDO 22.0 (1.7) (6.1) 8.0 HKD/IDR 1,836.7 0.1 (1.9) (2.0) (0.5) Malaysia : FBMKLCI 1,588 0.6 (2.4) 0.8 SGD/IDR 10,769.2 0.1 (1.3) (7.2) (0.5) Korea : KOSPI 3,248 (0.1) 13.0 48.4 JPY/IDR 130.2 0.2 4.6 (2.5) 0.2 Philippines : PCOMP 6,810 0.7 (4.6) 3.4 Thailand : SET 1,613 0.0 11.3 14.5 MYR/IDR 3,458.3 (0.1) 1.1 (5.9) (0.0) China : SHCOMP 3,580 (0.5) 3.1 21.1 THB/IDR 456.6 0.0 2.7 (2.9) (0.1) Singapore : STI 3,167 (0.3) 11.4 13.3 Note: *Data as at 8 Jun 2021’s close See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Indonesia Daily 9 June 2021 Bulletins STOCK/SECTOR NEWS COMMENTS RATING Garuda Indonesia Garuda Indonesia carried 1.08m passengers in From a financial perspective, the group’s BUY, (GIAA IJ) April (+390.63% YoY) vs Apr 2020. Comparing to cost structure is continuously being TP: IDR650 pre-COVID-19 numbers, it reached 45.11% managed efficiently, as the unit cost of passengers in Apr 2019. These passengers were CASK and CASK ex-fuel decreased by served with capacity or ASK of 2.62bn – a 42.92% and 49.88% YoY. Fuel prices also significant 136.91% YoY increase when decreased 12.75% YoY from 57.39 US cents compared to ASK during the previous year. When to 50.07 US cents in April. We are seeing compared to pre-COVID-19 numbers, ASK that CASK improvement was primarily due to reached 51.61% in Apr 2019. efficiencies within GIAA’s number of flights. Our talks with the management showed that In addition, cargo numbers reached 28.68k tons, demand has not significantly improved vis-à- or a 102.37% YoY increase to the tonnage of vis pre-COVID-19 levels. The group expects cargo carried last year. When compared to pre- to deliver 50% passenger capacity pandemic numbers, GIAA booked 93.70% cargo throughout this year. in Apr 2019. (Company) Furthermore, passenger yields increased 13.48% YoY. Cargo yields increased by 3.03% YoY. In addition, GIAA has decided to return two of its fleet aircraft earlier to its lessor. Resizing is one of its strategies to reduce losses. Note: GIAA has a current aircraft fleet of 140. Economy Indonesia’s foreign reserves fell to a 5-month low Although foreign reserves declined in May, N/A in May. The reserves declined to USD136.4bn we see this as still at a healthy level. during this period, the lowest level since Dec Basically, this is not much to worry about, as 2020. This was partly due to the Government’s the decline was more operational rather than external debt payment, Bank Indonesia said in a from any fundamental weakness. statement on Tuesday. Reserves were equivalent to 9.5 months of imports, or 9.1 months of imports and the Government’s external debt payments. The central bank sees reserve assets remaining adequate, supported by the stability and solid domestic economic outlook – in line with the policy responses to stimulate recovery. (Bloomberg) Media Citra Looking at the recent audience share data from We believe RCTI is likely to see audience BUY, Nusantara Nielsen, Surya Citra Media’s (SCMA IJ, BUY TP: share stabilising before it drops again – at TP: IDR1,640 (MNCN IJ) IDR1,960) non-prime time audience share least until new sinetrons are unveiled. maintained at 16.2, similar to last month’s numbers. In comparison, Mesia Nusantara Citra’s In terms of revenue, we are likely to see prime time audience share through the RCTI MNCN’s toppling growing in 1H21, as rate network was still maintained at 36.3, dropping cards are likely to increase in 2Q21 due to from its 38.2 peak in January. The strong strong audience share in 1Q21. audience share was attributed to the popularity of RCTI’s sinetrons. (Nielsen) In the case of SCMA, there is not so much going on in terms of new programmes and audience share. We retain our call and TP on MNCN. See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Indonesia Daily 9 June 2021 Semen Indonesia Semen Indonesia is expanding its business At the moment, mortar cement sales BUY, (SMGR IJ) through the Mitra Kiara Indonesia subsidiary. This contributions remain small vis-à-vis total TP: IDR12,800 expansion will enable SMGR to become the sales. This expansion is to anticipate biggest construction material supplier of mortar expected future demand on mortar for products. (CNBC Indonesia) construction projects. We maintain our recommendation and TP for SMGR. Summarecon Summarecon Agung will increase its capital by This is positive for SMRA, as some BUY, Agung granting preemptive rights – or a PMHMETD II payments will be used to reduce debt, while TP: IDR1,300 (SMRA IJ) alias rights issue – by releasing 2.08bn new others will be earmarked for capex injection shares. The latter are equivalent to 12.6% of the for some its subsidiaries.