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Equity SNAPSHOT Tuesday, August 24, 2021 Equity SNAPSHOT Tuesday, August 24, 2021 FROM EQUITY REPORT KEY INDEX KEY INDEX Chg Ytd Vol Chg Ytd Vol Elang Mahkota Teknologi: The E-agle has landed Close Close (EMTK.IJ IDR 2,030 BUY TP. IDR 3,000) (%) (%) (US$ m) (%) (%) (US$ m) EMTK is Indonesia’s own Softbank and Alibaba, supported by its cash Asean - 5 Asean - 5 machine SCMA as the source of funds. EMTK allocate the dividend Indonesia 6.110 1,3 2,2 793 Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318 for tech investments, the most notable is, BUKA being their success Thailand 1.582 1,9 9,2 3.458 Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454 story whereby the estimated ROI is more than 12x, and from the Philippines 6.592 (0,6) (7,7) 103 Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87 recent huge IPO. EMTK recently did an IDR9.3tn NPRI, with some Malaysia 1.522 0,3 (6,4) 447 Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338 of the proceed invested to Grab Indonesia with the marking of close Singapore 3.088 (0,5) 8,6 1 Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908 ties with the Grab ecosystem to further enhance growth. Another Regional Regional group interest is SAME which will be further digitized for value China 3.477 1,5 0,1 108.209 China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889 additions. Entrance to digital banking is inevitable we believe due to Hong Kong 25.110 1,0 (7,8) 21.764 Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093 vast potential even just to cater EMTK – Grab customers and Japan 27.770 1,0 1,2 3.516 Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278 partners. We initiate coverage on EMTK with a BUY call at 2022F Korea 3.135 1,4 9,1 11.479 Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790 target price of IDR3,000. Taiwan 16.742 2,4 13,6 1.335 Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534 To see the full version of this report, please click here India 55.556 0,4 16,3 774 India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495 Nasdaq 14.943 1,5 15,9 211.016 Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797 Dow Jones 35.336 0,6 15,5 11.670 Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490 MARKET NEWS MACROECONOMY CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE w-w m-m ytd w-w m-m ytd ▪ Indonesia c.bank to buy up to $30.5 bln of bonds directly from Rate Rate govt-report (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14.413 (0,3) 0,6 (2,6) Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9 ▪ President lowers level of social restriction yet the degree BI7DRRR % 3,50 - - (0,3) BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0) 10y Gov Indo bond 6,36 0,0 0,1 0,5 10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9) remains HARD COMMODITY HARD COMMODITY d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd PREVIOUS REPORTS Unit Price Unit Price ▪ Banking: Entering new era (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ▪ Adi Sarana Armada: Solid logistic and transportation Coal US$/ton 170 1,3 13,5 111,2 Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0) ecosystem in growing industry Gold US$/toz 1.802 (0,2) (0,0) (5,1) Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2 ▪ Charoen Pokphand Indonesia: Surprising feed margin Nickel US$/mt.ton 18.898 2,3 (2,5) 14,2 Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6 expansion Tin US$/mt.ton 32.575 0,1 (8,1) 58,6 Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1) ▪ Mayora Indah: Earnings pressure from higher raw material SOFT COMMODITY SOFT COMMODITY prices d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd Unit Price Unit Price ▪ Covid-19: Weekly Update: Reserving equilibrium (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ▪ Retail: A Delayed Return to Normalcy Cocoa US$/mt.ton 231 0,7 (9,0) 24,4 Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7 ▪ Technology: Oiling the flywheel Corn US$/mt.ton 66 (0,2) (9,1) 35,1 Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6 ▪ Bukalapak.com: Digitalizing Indonesia’s backbone Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 69 (0,2) (7,4) 32,4 Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3 ▪ Indo Tambangraya: Expect a further earnings improvement Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 4.489 (1,9) 4,1 18,5 Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0 in 3Q21 Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 174 0,8 6,0 16,0 Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8 ▪ Strategy: 2022 Proposed Budget: Defensive In Nature Rubber USd/kg 1.205 N/A 2,8 20,5 Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6 ▪ Banking: Still waiting clarity Pulp US$/tonne 479 (0,9) 4,7 13,8 Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5 ▪ Cement: Mitigating the impact of higher coal prices Coffee US$/60kgbag 200 - 5,8 15,2 Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5 ▪ Cigarette: 2022: +11.9% yoy growth in excise tax revenue Sugar US$/MT 59 (0,3) (10,0) 36,4 Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6 ▪ Construction: 2022 infrastructure budget: lower but still Wheat US$/ton 1.295 0,1 (7,5) (1,5) Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1) large Soy Oil US$/lb 231 0,7 (9,0) 24,4 Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9 ▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: Below 1H21, 2H21 Evidently SoyBean US$/by 66 (0,2) (9,1) 35,1 Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3) Arduous Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT Equity Research Company Update Tuesday,24 August 2021 BUY Elang Mahkota Teknologi(EMTK IJ) Maintain The E-agle has landed Last price (IDR) 2,030 EMTK is Indonesia’s own Softbank and Alibaba, supported by its cash machine Target Price (IDR) 3,000 SCMA as the source of funds. EMTK allocate the dividend for tech investments, the most notable is, BUKA being their success story whereby the Upside/Downside +47.8% estimated ROI is more than 12x, and from the recent huge IPO. EMTK recently Previous Target Price (IDR) did an IDR9.3tn NPRI, with some of the proceed invested to Grab Indonesia with the marking of close ties with the Grab ecosystem to further enhance Stock Statistics growth. Another group interest is SAME which will be further digitized for Sector Media value additions. Entrance to digital banking is inevitable we believe due to Bloomberg Ticker EMTK IJ vast potential even just to cater EMTK – Grab customers and partners. We No of Shrs (mn) 61,198 initiate coverage on EMTK with a BUY call at 2022F target price of IDR3,000. Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 124,231/8,596 The formidable tech conglomerate. With SCMA as foundation, as the Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 127.6/8.8 subsidiary commands a respectable position in the lucrative Indonesian media sector, thus providing strong cash-flow generation and track record of >50% Major shareholders (%) dividend payouts to bolster EMTK’s future investments. Their latest acquisition Eddy k. Sariaatmadja 23.0 of SAME:IJ has been quite fruitful with turnaround starting in 1Q21, a few Ir Susanto Suwarto 11.6 months after becoming EMTK subsidiary. EMTK’s war-chest has also been Estimated free float 29.7 strengthened by the NPRI of IDR9.3tn, subsequently utilized for adding shares in Grab Indonesia, to currently 5.88% of Grab Indonesia EPS Consensus (IDR) 2021F 2022F 2023F Proven tech investing track record. EMTK tech investments has yielded Danareksa 109.8 105.7 135.9 handsome return for many of their notable investees, such as Property Guru, Consensus 23.4 27.5 29.9 Plan B, and the zenith being Bukalapak (BUKA:IJ). Past performance suggested a satisfying equity IRR ranging from 24%-76%, far outstripping WACC. We can Danareksa/Cons 469.2 384.4 454.5 expect a further investments in order to complete the EMTK-Grab ecosystem, EMTK relative to JCI Index which currently lacking traction in health-tech and still absent in digital bank. Awaiting natural extension to digital financial services. As its close ally has rolled out Grab Bank in Singapore, and given the sheer size of the Indonesian unbanked population, EMTK-Grab’s ecosystem will enter this space, we believe. The bank will have a robust principal line-up in Grab, EMTK, BUKA, and Standard Chartered, with the latter providing both banking expertise and Banking as a Service (BaaS) to enable optimal execution. BUKA via Buka Investasi Bersama has also tied up with AMOR:IJ and recently launched B-Money to strengthen its digital business in an effort to capture maximum value from the combined ecosystem. Initiate coverage with a BUY, TP of IDR3,000. Given EMTK’s strong track record in tech investment, sound balance sheet, and potential expansion to become a Source : Bloomberg digital bank, we believe there is still ample upside for the new blue chip. The 2022F valuation target price is based on SOTP which leads to a TP of IDR3,000.
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