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Indonesia Strategy April: Managing Market Volatility

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Indonesia Strategy April: Managing Market Volatility Indonesia Strategy April: Managing market volatility Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CFP, CMT [email protected] Emma A. Fauni [email protected] Rising US Treasury yields Market volatility amid rising US Treasury yields takes center stage The US Treasury yields surged as the market anticipates for a meaningful acceleration in the US’ inflation ahead. The market is concerned about the possibility of taper tantrum and possibility of the US’ tightening monetary policy that could trigger massive capital outflow from emerging markets. If there is a taper tantrum someday in the future, there should be lighter capital outflow pressure on Indonesia’s equity compared to 2013 taper tantrum, in our view. Optimism on Accelerated vaccination pace, with possible extension to completion of the first wave vaccination progress Up until April 6, the government managed to vaccinate 22% of total first-wave target (vs. 5.2% progress as of March 3) for the first injection. As the first wave is targeted to be done this month, the current progress seems far behind the target; thus, we expect the completion of this wave to be extended beyond April. Ramadan effects in 2021 Although homecoming is banned, retailers should benefit from Ramadan effect Unlike Ramadan in 2020 when the government allowed companies to install or not pay the holiday allowance (THR) in full amount to their employees due to the severe impact of COVID-19 on their financial performance, now the government requires companies to pay it in full amount in 2021. We think that although the government bans homecoming (mudik), the revenue of retailers should increase, given the positive effect of Ramadan month in 2021. LQ45’s 4Q20 earnings LQ45’s improved aggregate earnings and revenue in 4Q20 As of April 5, 2021, as many as 31 LQ45 companies have released their 4Q20 earnings, showing an aggregate net profit decline of 41.4% YoY, which slightly improved by 1.8% QoQ from the figure in the previous quarter. The negative YoY growth of the quarterly result actually shows a recovery compared to 3Q20’s decline of 42.2% YoY. Aggregate revenue dropped by 7.4% YoY in 4Q20, improving from the decrease in aggregate revenue of 16.7% YoY in 3Q20. Stock picks Adding a mining company, i.e. UNTR, poultry companies, i.e. JPFA and MAIN, and a consumer company, i.e. INDF to our top picks in replacement of BBTN, BMRI, BBNI, and LINK. Our top picks lean towards bank, hospital, agri, mining, poultry and consumer, making way for BBRI, HEAL, SIMP, ANTM, UNTR, JPFA, MAIN, and INDF. As of April 8, our equally weighted top picks generated an accumulated return of 28.6% (vs. JCI's accumulated return of -5.0%) since the inception of our monthly top picks report in August 2019. Therefore, our top picks outperformed JCI by 33.6%. Table 1. Mirae Asset’s top picks Mkt cap EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Ticker Company name (IDRbn) 2021F 2022F 2021F 2022F 2021F 2022F 2021F 2022F 2021F 2022F ANTM Aneka Tambang Tbk 59,356 86.3 18.6 16.5 13.3 27.7 23.4 2.9 2.7 10.0 11.6 HEAL Medikaloka Hermina Tbk PT 13,520 22.1 18.2 12.4 10.8 31.2 26.3 4.8 4.2 16.0 16.7 INDF Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT 58,609 -4.2 13.1 7.4 6.9 9.4 8.4 1.3 1.2 14.3 14.7 SIMP Salim Ivomas Pratama Tbk PT 8,066 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a JPFA Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk PT 24,509 72.6 14.6 7.7 7.0 15.4 13.3 2.0 1.8 12.7 12.9 MAIN Malindo Feedmill Tbk PT 1,847 n.a 39.3 5.8 4.9 13.2 9.2 0.9 0.8 6.6 7.9 BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT 536,463 64.7 27.0 n.a n.a 17.3 13.6 2.4 2.2 14.5 17.0 UNTR United Tractors Tbk PT 84,208 56.7 10.6 3.9 3.7 9.0 8.2 1.3 1.2 14.5 14.2 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Note: Valuations are based on Bloomberg consensus April 9, 2021 Indonesia Strategy CONTENTS Rising US Treasury yields takes center stage 3 Optimism on vaccination progress 6 Ramadan effects in 2021 9 LQ45’s 4Q20 corporate earnings 11 March in review 14 Stock picks 16 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 2 April 9, 2021 Indonesia Strategy Rising US Treasury yields takes center stage Vaccine rollout & fiscal stimulus The US lately is getting ahead in its COVID-19 handling, characterized by declining daily new positive cases and deaths, coupled with rising vaccination pace. Currently, the US is leading the world vaccination program with total people fully vaccinated of above 60mn people. At the same time, the US government continues to pour massive fiscal stimulus in order to defend the economic crisis. Both factors boost expectation for a better economic outlook and inflation. Figure 1. Receding number of new COVID infections in US Figure 2. Declining daily COVID deaths in US Source: Worldometer, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Worldometer, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Figure 3. Surging daily number of vaccination in US Figure 4. US’ third round of fiscal stimulus Source: Our World in Data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Statista, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 3 April 9, 2021 Indonesia Strategy Policy makers and consensus now expecting faster economic growth projection The market is now forecasting the US’ economy to recover faster than the previous expectation. As collected by Bloomberg, consensus eyes for the US’ FY21 GDP growth outlook to touch somewhere around 5.7% YoY. Furthermore, the Fed’s members forecasted for an even stronger GDP growth outlook for FY21 of 6.5% YoY in March 2021 FOMC, revised from 4.2% YoY in the previous FOMC in December 2020. Figure 5. US’ economic growth forecast by consensus Figure 6. Rising US economic growth projection by FOMC (%, YoY) 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: FOMC March 2021 SEP, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research …bringing US Treasury yields to surge Optimism about growth has led the market to anticipate for a meaningful acceleration in inflation ahead, thus raising concern that the Fed is more likely than before to increase interest rate and tighten its monetary policy in order to maintain prices under control. It brings some fears that such a move will trigger a taper tantum in the bonds market. Therefore, we note that the US longer-term Treasury yields have been climbing since the start of this year, reaching the highest in more than a year. What is more worrisome is that the taper tantrum will trigger capital flight outflow from emerging markets. Figure 7. US Treasury yields vs. inflation vs. policy rates Figure 8. Fed’s balance sheet (%) (%) (USDbn) 10Y UST yield (L) US monthly CPI (R) Policy rate (R) 9,000 4.0 4.0 8,000 3.5 3.5 7,000 3.0 3.0 6,000 2.5 2.5 5,000 2.0 2.0 4,000 1.5 1.5 1.0 3,000 1.0 0.5 2,000 0.5 0.0 1,000 0.0 -0.5 0 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/20 1/21 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 4 April 9, 2021 Indonesia Strategy Most of FOMC participants still expect US policy rate still unchanged until 2023 The dot plot from March 2020 FOMC indicates that more member of FOMC were expecting hikes in policy rates. However, majority of FOMC members still expect US policy rate still unchanged until 2023. The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, reassured not to scale back the Fed’s massive asset purchases and to keep no interest rate hike likely through 2023. Figure 9. Dot plot from December 2020 FOMC Figure 10. Dot plot from March 2021 FOMC Source: CNBC, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: CNBC, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Implication for emerging markets like Indonesia The above narrative raises concern for emerging countries that there will be rising inflation in emerging markets driven by the depreciating domestic currency due to capital outflows. Historically speaking, IDR tends to depreciate as the US Treasury yields climbs higher, raising concern on rising borrowing costs. This trend puts pressure on emerging markets’ central bankers to increase rates in order to resist capital outflows and to stabilize local currency. Figure 11. Monthly net foreign flow in Indonesia’s equity Figure 12. Emerging markets’ portfolio flows (USDmn) 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 11/20 12/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Haver analytics, IMF, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Note: 4/21 is as of Arpril 7, 2021 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 5 April 9, 2021 Indonesia Strategy Figure 13.
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