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Defense & National Security CHANCEVol. 31, No. 2, 2018 Using Data to Advance Science, Education, and Society Special Issue on Defense & National Security Including... Informing the Warfighter— Why Statistical Methods Matter in Defense Testing Disease Surveillance: Detecting and Tracking Outbreaks Using Statistics 09332480(2018)31(2) Job hunting? The can help! JOBWEB, our targeted job CHECK OUT database and résumé-posting service, OUR JOB 1 www.amstat.org/ASA/Your-Career/- JobWeb.aspx RESOURCES JSM CAREER SERVICE, our onsite JSM interview service connect- ing hundreds of applicants to hun- 2 dreds of positions and recruiters from more than 70 employers, ww2.amstat.org/meetings/- jsm/2017/ AMSTAT NEWS, our monthly 3 membership magazine, featuring job opportunities in every issue CHANCE Using Data to Advance Science, Education, and Society http://chance.amstat.org 23 45 Special Issue 53 on Defense & National Security ARTICLES COLUMNS 4 Informing the Warfighter—Why Statistical 60 The Odds of Justice Methods Matter in Defense Testing Mary W. Gray, Column Editor Laura J. Freeman and Catherine Warner Whom Shall We Kill? How Shall We Kill Them? 12 Disease Surveillance: Detecting and Tracking Outbreaks Using Statistics 62 Visual Revelations Howard Wainer, Column Editor Ronald D. Fricker, Jr. and Steven E. Rigdon Ancient Visualizations 23 Adversarial Risk Analysis Howard Wainer and Michael Friendly David Banks 30 Adaptive Testing of DoD Systems with Binary Response DEPARTMENTS Douglas M. Ray and Paul A. Roediger 3 Editor’s Letter 38 Developments in the Statistical Modeling of Military Recruiting Samuel E. Buttrey, Lyn R. Whitaker, and Jonathan K. Alt 45 Data Farming: Reaping Insights from Simulation Experiments Susan M. Sanchez 53 Updated Guidelines, Updated Curriculum: The GAISE College Report and Introductory Statistics for the Modern Student Beverly L. Wood, Megan Mocko, Michelle Everson, Nicholas J. Horton, and Paul Velleman Abstracted/indexed in Academic OneFile, Academic Search, ASFA, CSA/Proquest, Current Abstracts, Current Index to Statistics, Gale, Google Scholar, MathEDUC, Mathematical Reviews, OCLC, Summon by Serial Solutions, TOC Premier, Zentralblatt Math. Cover image: ThinkStock EXECUTIVE EDITOR Scott Evans Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts AIMS AND SCOPE [email protected] ADVISORY EDITORS CHANCE is designed for anyone who has an interest in using data to advance science, education, and society. CHANCE is a non-technical magazine highlight- Sam Behseta ing applications that demonstrate sound statistical practice. CHANCE represents a California State University, Fullerton cultural record of an evolving field, intended to entertain as well as inform. Michael Larsen St. Michael’s College, Colchester, Vermont Michael Lavine SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION University of Massachusetts, Amherst Dalene Stangl CHANCE (ISSN: 0933-2480) is co-published quarterly in February, April, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania September, and November for a total of four issues per year by the American Hal S. 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Telephone: (703) 684-1221. Editorial Production: Megan Visiphilia Murphy, Communications Manager; Valerie Nirala, Publications Coordinator; Chris Franklin Ruth E. Thaler-Carter, Copyeditor; Melissa Gotherman, Graphic Designer. University of Georgia, Athens Taylor & Francis Group, LLC, 530 Walnut Street, Suite 850, Philadelphia, PA K-12 Education 19106, USA. Telephone: (215) 625-8900; Fax: (215) 207-0047. Andrew Gelman Columbia University, New York, New York Ethics and Statistics Copyright ©2018 American Statistical Association. All rights reserved. No part Mary Gray of this publication may be reproduced, stored, transmitted, or disseminated in American University, Washington, D.C. any form or by any means without prior written permission from the American The Odds of Justice Statistical Association. 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The publisher assumes no Ed Gracely, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Teaching Statistics in the Health Sciences responsibility for any statements of fact or opinion expressed in the published Christian Robert papers. The appearance of advertising in this journal does not constitute an Université Paris-Dauphine, France endorsement or approval by the publisher, the editor, or the editorial board of Book Reviews the quality or value of the product advertised or of the claims made for it by its Aleksandra Slavkovic manufacturer. Penn State University, University Park O Privacy, Where Art Thou? RESPONSIBLE FOR ADVERTISEMENTS Dalene Stangl, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel, For advertising inquiries, please contact [email protected]. Duke University, Durham, North Carolina Taking a Chance in the Classroom Printed in the United States on acid-free paper. Howard Wainer National Board of Medical Examiners, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Visual Revelations WEBSITE http://chance.amstat.org EDITOR’S LETTER Scott Evans Dear CHANCE Colleagues, hreats to national security come in many counterterrorism. Douglas Ray and Paul Roediger forms. In 2016, Russians hacked the United then discuss adaptive testing of DoD systems with States election. On September 11, 2001, a binary response. The evolution of statistical model- 19T militants associated with the extremist group ing of military recruiting is the topic of an article al-Qaeda hijacked four airplanes, killing nearly 3,000 by Samuel Buttrey, Lyn Whitaker, and Jonathan people. In the 1990s, President Clinton was convinced Alt. Susan Sanchez discusses the use of data farm- that the global spread of AIDS was reaching cata- ing, using tools and techniques for the design and strophic dimensions and formally designated HIV analysis of large simulation experiments, as applied as a threat to United States national security since it to defense problems. could threaten the stability of foreign governments, In an independent article, Beverly Wood, Megan touch off ethnic wars, and undo recent advancements Mocko, Michelle Everson, Nick Horton, and in building free-market democracies abroad. Paul Velleman, evaluate clarifications and updates Defense and national security is the theme of this to the six recommendations for teaching from the special issue of CHANCE. Six articles discuss various original, foundational GAISE College Report. They aspects of national security, and how statistics is play- consider evolutions affecting the teaching and prac- ing a key role in addressing various issues. Dr. David tice of statistics, including the rise of data science, an Banks and Dr. Alyson Wilson served as guest editors increase in the number of students studying statistics, for the special issue. increasing availability of data, and advances in sci- In the first article, Laura Freeman and Catherine ence and technologies. They discuss how the original Warner discuss implementing statistical design
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