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1947–1967 a Conversation with Howard Raiffa
Statistical Science 2008, Vol. 23, No. 1, 136–149 DOI: 10.1214/088342307000000104 c Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2008 The Early Statistical Years: 1947–1967 A Conversation with Howard Raiffa Stephen E. Fienberg Abstract. Howard Raiffa earned his bachelor’s degree in mathematics, his master’s degree in statistics and his Ph.D. in mathematics at the University of Michigan. Since 1957, Raiffa has been a member of the faculty at Harvard University, where he is now the Frank P. Ramsey Chair in Managerial Economics (Emeritus) in the Graduate School of Business Administration and the Kennedy School of Government. A pioneer in the creation of the field known as decision analysis, his re- search interests span statistical decision theory, game theory, behavioral decision theory, risk analysis and negotiation analysis. Raiffa has su- pervised more than 90 doctoral dissertations and written 11 books. His new book is Negotiation Analysis: The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making. Another book, Smart Choices, co-authored with his former doctoral students John Hammond and Ralph Keeney, was the CPR (formerly known as the Center for Public Resources) Institute for Dispute Resolution Book of the Year in 1998. Raiffa helped to create the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and he later became its first Director, serving in that capacity from 1972 to 1975. His many honors and awards include the Distinguished Contribution Award from the Society of Risk Analysis; the Frank P. Ramsey Medal for outstanding contributions to the field of decision analysis from the Operations Research Society of America; and the Melamed Prize from the University of Chicago Business School for The Art and Science of Negotiation. -
A Brief Appraisal of Behavioral Economists' Plea for Light Paternalism
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, vol 32, nº 3 (128), pp 445-458, July-September/2012 Freedom of choice and bounded rationality: a brief appraisal of behavioral economists’ plea for light paternalism ROBERTA MURAMATSU PATRÍCIA FONSECA* Behavioral economics has addressed interesting positive and normative ques- tions underlying the standard rational choice theory. More recently, it suggests that, in a real world of boundedly rational agents, economists could help people to im- prove the quality of their choices without any harm to autonomy and freedom of choice. This paper aims to scrutinize available arguments for and against current proposals of light paternalistic interventions mainly in the domain of intertemporal choice. It argues that incorporating the notion of bounded rationality in economic analysis and empirical findings of cognitive biases and self-control problems cannot make an indisputable case for paternalism. Keywords: freedom; choice; bounded rationality; paternalism; behavioral eco- nomics. JEL Classification: B40; B41; D11; D91. So the immediate problem in Libertarian Paternalism is the fatuity of its declared motivation Very few libertarians have maintained what Thaler and Sunstein suggest they maintain, and indeed many of the leading theorists have worked with ideas in line with what Thaler and Sunstein have to say about man’s nature Thaler and Sunstein are forcing an open door Daniel Klein, Statist Quo Bias, Economic Journal Watch, 2004 * Professora doutora da Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie e do Insper, e-mail: rmuramatsu@uol. com.br; Pesquisadora independente na área de Economia Comportamental e Psicologia Econômica, e-mail [email protected]. Submetido: 23/fevereiro/2011. Aprovado: 12/março/2011. Revista de Economia Política 32 (3), 2012 445 IntrodUCTION There is a long-standing methodological tradition stating that economics is a positive science that remains silent about policy issues and the complex determi- nants of human ends, values and motives. -
John Von Neumann Between Physics and Economics: a Methodological Note
Review of Economic Analysis 5 (2013) 177–189 1973-3909/2013177 John von Neumann between Physics and Economics: A methodological note LUCA LAMBERTINI∗y University of Bologna A methodological discussion is proposed, aiming at illustrating an analogy between game theory in particular (and mathematical economics in general) and quantum mechanics. This analogy relies on the equivalence of the two fundamental operators employed in the two fields, namely, the expected value in economics and the density matrix in quantum physics. I conjecture that this coincidence can be traced back to the contributions of von Neumann in both disciplines. Keywords: expected value, density matrix, uncertainty, quantum games JEL Classifications: B25, B41, C70 1 Introduction Over the last twenty years, a growing amount of attention has been devoted to the history of game theory. Among other reasons, this interest can largely be justified on the basis of the Nobel prize to John Nash, John Harsanyi and Reinhard Selten in 1994, to Robert Aumann and Thomas Schelling in 2005 and to Leonid Hurwicz, Eric Maskin and Roger Myerson in 2007 (for mechanism design).1 However, the literature dealing with the history of game theory mainly adopts an inner per- spective, i.e., an angle that allows us to reconstruct the developments of this sub-discipline under the general headings of economics. My aim is different, to the extent that I intend to pro- pose an interpretation of the formal relationships between game theory (and economics) and the hard sciences. Strictly speaking, this view is not new, as the idea that von Neumann’s interest in mathematics, logic and quantum mechanics is critical to our understanding of the genesis of ∗I would like to thank Jurek Konieczny (Editor), an anonymous referee, Corrado Benassi, Ennio Cavaz- zuti, George Leitmann, Massimo Marinacci, Stephen Martin, Manuela Mosca and Arsen Palestini for insightful comments and discussion. -
Introduction to Game Theory
Economic game theory: a learner centred introduction Author: Dr Peter Kührt Introduction to game theory Game theory is now an integral part of business and politics, showing how decisively it has shaped modern notions of strategy. Consultants use it for projects; managers swot up on it to make smarter decisions. The crucial aim of mathematical game theory is to characterise and establish rational deci- sions for conflict and cooperation situations. The problem with it is that none of the actors know the plans of the other “players” or how they will make the appropriate decisions. This makes it unclear for each player to know how their own specific decisions will impact on the plan of action (strategy). However, you can think about the situation from the perspective of the other players to build an expectation of what they are going to do. Game theory therefore makes it possible to illustrate social conflict situations, which are called “games” in game theory, and solve them mathematically on the basis of probabilities. It is assumed that all participants behave “rationally”. Then you can assign a value and a probability to each decision option, which ultimately allows a computational solution in terms of “benefit or profit optimisation”. However, people are not always strictly rational because seemingly “irrational” results also play a big role for them, e.g. gain in prestige, loss of face, traditions, preference for certain colours, etc. However, these “irrational" goals can also be measured with useful values so that “restricted rational behaviour” can result in computational results, even with these kinds of models. -
A Network of Excellence in Economic Theory Prepared By
Foundations of Game Theoretic Understanding of Socio-Economic Phenomena; A Network of Excellence in Economic Theory Prepared by Myrna Wooders, Department of Economics, University of Warwick Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK [email protected] Applicable Instrument: Network of Excellence Sub-Thematic Priority most relevant to the topic: 1.1.7 Citizens and Governance in a Knowledge-based society Other relevant Sub-Thematic Priorities: 1.1.7.i Knowledge-based society and social cohesion 1.1.7.ii Citizenship, democracy and new forms of governance Summary: This EoI is for a network in game theory and economic theory, including evolutionary approaches. While the proposal relates to applications of theory, the main motivation and thrust is in a network of excellence in pure theory. Like research in theoretical physics or on the human genome, fundamental game theory and economic theory is not primarily motivated by immediate applications or by current policy issues. Instead, it is motivated by scientific intellectual curiosity. Because this curiosity arises from a quest towards a deeper understanding of the world around us, it is anticipated, however, that there will be applications of great significance – recall that the multi-billion dollar outcomes of auctions of spectrum in the US were guided by game theory. In addition, fundamental scientific theory, because of its search for understanding that will have broad consequences and transcend national boundaries, is appropriately funded by at the European Union level. The network aims to embrace the leading researchers in economic theory and game theory and strengthen Europe’s position as a leader in economic research. -
Newsletter 56 November 1, 2012 1 Department of Economics
Department of Economics Newslett er 56 November 1, 2012 Autumn in the beautiful Swiss mountains Table of Contents 1 Spotlight 1 1.1 Gottlieb Duttweiler Prize for Ernst Fehr 1 1.2 Walras-Bowley Lecture by Ernst Fehr 1 1.3 Fabrizio Zilibotti has been elected member of the Academia Europaea 1 1.4 Zurich Graduate School of Economics 1 2 Events 2 2.1 Departmental Research Seminar in Economics 2 2.2 Guest Presentations 2 2.3 Alumni Events 5 3 Publications 5 3.1 In Economics 5 3.2 Others 6 3.3 Working Papers 6 3.4 Mainstream Publications & Appearances 7 4 People 7 4.1 Degrees 7 4.2 Awards 8 5 Miscellaneous 9 5.1 Congresses, Conferences & Selected Presentations 9 5.2 Grants 9 Department of Economics 1 Spotlight 1.1 Gottlieb Duttweiler Prize for Ernst Fehr The 2013 Gottlieb Duttweiler Prize will be awarded to Ernst Fehr for his research in the role of fairness in markets, organizations, and individual decision making. The Gottlieb Duttweiler Prize is politically independent and is conferred at irregular intervals to persons who have served the common good with exceptional accomplishments. Previous holders of the prize include Kofi Annan and Václav Havel. The prize will be awarded on April 9, 2013; behavioral economist Dan Ariely will hold the laudation. 1.2 Walras-Bowley Lecture by Ernst Fehr Ernst Fehr was invited to present the Walras-Bowley Lecture at the North American summer meeting of the Econometric Society in Evanston Illinous, June 2012. 1.3 Fabrizio Zilibotti has been elected member of the Academia Europaea Fabrizio Zilibotti has been elected member of the Academia Europaea. -
Journal of Economics and Management
Journal of Economics and Management ISSN 1732-1948 Vol. 39 (1) 2020 Sylwia Bąk https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4398-0865 Institute of Economics, Finance and Management Faculty of Management and Social Communication Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland [email protected] The problem of uncertainty and risk as a subject of research of the Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Sciences Accepted by Editor Ewa Ziemba | Received: June 27, 2019 | Revised: October 29, 2019 | Accepted: November 8, 2019. Abstract Aim/purpose – The main aim of the present paper is to identify the problem of uncer- tainty and risk in research carried out by the Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Sciences and its analysis by disciplines/sub-disciplines represented by the awarded researchers. Design/methodology/approach – The paper rests on the literature analysis, mostly analysis of research achievements of the Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Sciences. Findings – Studies have determined that research on uncertainty and risk is carried out in many disciplines and sub-disciplines of economic sciences. In addition, it has been established that a number of researchers among the Nobel Prize laureates in the field of economic sciences, take into account the issues of uncertainty and risk. The analysis showed that researchers selected from the Nobel Prize laureates have made a significant contribution to raising awareness of the importance of uncertainty and risk in many areas of the functioning of individuals, enterprises and national economies. Research implications/limitations – Research analysis was based on a selected group of scientific research – Laureates of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. However, thus confirmed ground-breaking and momentous nature of the research findings of this group of authors justifies the selective choice of the analysed research material. -
ΒΙΒΛΙΟΓ ΡΑΦΙΑ Bibliography
Τεύχος 53, Οκτώβριος-Δεκέμβριος 2019 | Issue 53, October-December 2019 ΒΙΒΛΙΟΓ ΡΑΦΙΑ Bibliography Βραβείο Νόμπελ στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη Nobel Prize in Economics Τα τεύχη δημοσιεύονται στον ιστοχώρο της All issues are published online at the Bank’s website Τράπεζας: address: https://www.bankofgreece.gr/trapeza/kepoe https://www.bankofgreece.gr/en/the- t/h-vivliothhkh-ths-tte/e-ekdoseis-kai- bank/culture/library/e-publications-and- anakoinwseis announcements Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος. Κέντρο Πολιτισμού, Bank of Greece. Centre for Culture, Research and Έρευνας και Τεκμηρίωσης, Τμήμα Documentation, Library Section Βιβλιοθήκης Ελ. Βενιζέλου 21, 102 50 Αθήνα, 21 El. Venizelos Ave., 102 50 Athens, [email protected] Τηλ. 210-3202446, [email protected], Tel. +30-210-3202446, 3202396, 3203129 3202396, 3203129 Βιβλιογραφία, τεύχος 53, Οκτ.-Δεκ. 2019, Bibliography, issue 53, Oct.-Dec. 2019, Nobel Prize Βραβείο Νόμπελ στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη in Economics Συντελεστές: Α. Ναδάλη, Ε. Σεμερτζάκη, Γ. Contributors: A. Nadali, E. Semertzaki, G. Tsouri Τσούρη Βιβλιογραφία, αρ.53 (Οκτ.-Δεκ. 2019), Βραβείο Nobel στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη 1 Bibliography, no. 53, (Oct.-Dec. 2019), Nobel Prize in Economics Πίνακας περιεχομένων Εισαγωγή / Introduction 6 2019: Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer 7 Μονογραφίες / Monographs ................................................................................................... 7 Δοκίμια Εργασίας / Working papers ...................................................................................... -
1 the Nobel Prize in Economics Turns 50 Allen R. Sanderson1 and John
The Nobel Prize in Economics Turns 50 Allen R. Sanderson1 and John J. Siegfried2 Abstract The first Sveriges Riksbank Prizes in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, were awarded in 1969, 50 years ago. In this essay we provide the historical origins of this sixth “Nobel” field, background information on the recipients, their nationalities, educational backgrounds, institutional affiliations, and collaborations with their esteemed colleagues. We describe the contributions of a sample of laureates to economics and the social and political world around them. We also address – and speculate – on both some of their could-have-been contemporaries who were not chosen, as well as directions the field of economics and its practitioners are possibly headed in the years ahead, and thus where future laureates may be found. JEL Codes: A1, B3 1 University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA 2Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA Corresponding Author: Allen Sanderson, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1126 East 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, USA Email: [email protected] 1 Introduction: The 1895 will of Swedish scientist Alfred Nobel specified that his estate be used to create annual awards in five categories – physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, literature, and peace – to recognize individuals whose contributions have conferred “the greatest benefit on mankind.” Nobel Prizes in these five fields were first awarded in 1901.1 In 1968, Sweden’s central bank, to celebrate its 300th anniversary and also to champion its independence from the Swedish government and tout the scientific nature of its work, made a donation to the Nobel Foundation to establish a sixth Prize, the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.2 The first “economics Nobel” Prizes, selected by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences were awarded in 1969 (to Ragnar Frisch and Jan Tinbergen, from Norway and the Netherlands, respectively). -
Tilburg University Reinhard Selten: a Panoramic View on Human Behavior
Tilburg University Reinhard Selten: A panoramic view on human behavior van Damme, Eric Published in: Akademische Gedenksfeier zu Ehren von Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Reinhard Selten a Publication date: 2017 Document Version Peer reviewed version Link to publication in Tilburg University Research Portal Citation for published version (APA): van Damme, E. (2017). Reinhard Selten: A panoramic view on human behavior. In M. Kosfeld (Ed.), Akademische Gedenksfeier zu Ehren von Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Reinhard Selten a (pp. 49-62). University of Frankfurt. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 30. sep. 2021 REINHARD SELTEN: A PANORAMIC VIEW ON HUMAN BEHAVIOR Eric van Damme 31 July 2017 Sehr Geehrte Damen und Herren, Familie Selten, Ich bin sehr erfreut und geehrt dass ich gefragt wurde bei diesem Akademische Gedenkfeier zu Ehren meines Lehrers und Vorbildes Reinhard Selten zu sprechen. -
Howard Raiffa, 92 a Leader in the Study of How Decisions Are Made
The Washington Post July 24, 2016 Howard Raiffa, 92 A leader in the study of how decisions are made Dr. Raiffa in a Harvard classroom in 1975. (Richard A. Chase/Harvard Business School) by Emily Langer Howard Raiffa, a professor of economics who was credited with leading an intellectual revolution in business and other arenas by teaching decision-making not as an art, but as a science grounded in mathematics and statistics, died July 8 at his home in Oro Valley, Ariz. He was 92. His death was announced by the Harvard Business School, where Dr. Raiffa joined the faculty in 1957, and by the Harvard Kennedy School of government and public affairs, which cited him as one of the founding fathers of its modern incarnation. The cause was Parkinson’s disease, said his daughter Judith Raiffa. During a nearly four-decade career at Harvard, Dr. Raiffa became known as one of the most creative thinkers in his field: the study of how people make decisions — good, bad, wise or unwise — in situations of uncertainty. He was the quintessential interdisciplinary academician. Trained in mathematics and statistics, he was a joint chair at Harvard’s business and government schools and did work that was applied to commerce, law, foreign affairs, public policy, medicine and sports. In an interview, Max H. Bazerman, a professor of business administration at the Harvard Business School and co-director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School, said Dr. Raiffa was someone who “wanted to use his brilliance in applied contexts to make the world better.” In the early years of his career, Dr. -
Department of Economics and Finance College of Business
Selected From top left: Prof. Yin-Wong CHEUNG, Dr. Isabel YAN, Dr. Charles LEUNG, Dr. Fred KWAN, Prof. Giorgio VALENTE Dr. Costel Daniel ANDONIE, Dr. Xu HAN, Dr. Vikas KAKKAR, Dr. Tanida ARAYAVECHKIT, Dr. Srikant MARAKANI Faculty Members Dr. Takuma KUNIEDA, Dr. Charles LI, Dr. Gulseren MUTLU, Dr. Daniel PREVE, Dr. Yong WANG Faculty members Specializations Prof. Yin-Wong CHEUNG, PhD University of Pennsylvania Econometrics; Applied Econometrics; Exchange Rate Dynamics; Financial Price Behavior; Output Fluctuation; Issues in Asian Economies International Finance; Empirical Asset Pricing; Empirical Market Microstructure; Fixed Prof. Giorgio VALENTE, PhD University of Warwick Income Markets Dr. Costel Daniel ANDONIE, PhD Northwestern University Microeconomic Theory; Political Economy Dr. Tanida ARAYAVECHKIT, PhD University of Pennsylvania Macroeconomics; International Trade; Growth and Development Dr. Xu HAN, PhD North Carolina State University Econometrics Dr. Vikas KAKKAR, PhD University of Rochester International Finance; Macroeconomics; Applied Game Theory Dr. Takuma KUNIEDA, PhD Brown University Macroeconomics; Economic Growth; Monetary Economics; International Economics Dr. Fred Y.K. KWAN, PhD University of Minnesota Econometrics; Macroeconomics; Hong Kong and Chinese Economy; International Finance Dr. Charles K.Y. LEUNG, PhD University of Rochester Real Estate Urban Economics; Macroeconomics Dr. Charles K.W. LI, PhD City University, London China’s Financial Development and Economic Growth; Asia-Pacific and Hong Kong Economies; World Trade and Globalization; Political Economy of Development; Financial Crisis Dr. Srikant MARAKANI, PhD Northwestern University Asset Pricing; Interest Rate Derivatives Dr. Gulseren MUTLU, PhD New York University Microeconomic Theory; Contract Theory Dr. Daniel PREVE, PhD Uppsala University Time Series Econometrics; Finite Sample Econometrics; Time Series Forecasting; Model Selection Dr.