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1 Presentation Statoil 14 August 2008 Oslo Jean Laherrere Jean.Laherrere Presentation Statoil 14 August 2008 Oslo Jean Laherrere [email protected] Sites: www.oilcrisis.com/laherrrere www.aspofrance.org go to documents This paper is a long text which is the base of the presentation after reduction to stay within 45 minutes Advice from an old geologist-geophysicist on how to understand Nature -Nature is the main driver which reacts to human excess Present basic facts -Cycle -what goes up must come down, life is cycle -what was born will die: sun, earth, mankind and civilization -constant growth has no future in a limited world -most events can be modelled with several peaks and symmetrical cycles -US oil production peaked in 1970, world production will peak (maximum) one day -North Atlantic cod landings peaked in 1965 and cod is considered as extinct in most of the Grand Banks Figure 1: Cod landings in Northern Atlantic in 2000 Technology (trawlers) has increased production, but has killed the cod species (believed to be renewable!) after bad estimation of the resources (quotas were designed to fish 20% of the cod resource when in fact they fished 60% of it, plus fishing their food and destroying the breeding grounds) ! North Sea cod fishing is going exactly the same way with 15 years delay Figure 2: Cod landings in North Sea and Total Allowable Catch (TAC) compared to North Atlantic 1 -UK mad cows UK mad cows has peaked in 1992, when mad cow peak is ten years later in France and Ireland Figure 3: Mad cow (BSE) in UK, Ireland & France1985-2007 -US annual drilling Several cycles in the number of wells in US drilling with two peaks in 1956 and 1981, and one coming soon Figure 4: US annual total number of wells , oilwells & gaswells 2 But, it is a different picture when looking at the percentage: dry wells show a peak in 1969 and gaswells in 2005 (rush on the Bakken oil!) Figure 5: US annual percentage of oilwells, gaswells and dry wells -UK coal production British coal production (Rutledge 2008) displays a very long example of bell-shape curve, in fact with several cycles and a bumpy peak (due to the first world war), but globally the slopes are symmetrical Figure 6: British coal production 1850-2007 from Rutledge 3 -Shanghai stock exchange Shanghai composit displays a perfect symmetrical peak centred in October 2007, when oil consumption growth peak was in 2004. How long will the decline of the Shanghai stock exchange be? I am afraid that China has pushed hard for the Olympic Games and after the Games China will suffer. Figure 7: Shanghai Stock Exchange peak and oil consumption growth 2001-2008 -unsymmetrical cycle = Caspian caviar The collapse of the FSU aggravated the decline of sturgeon landings which peaked around 1980, and the bell shape is quite unsymmetrical. Will a new cycle be? Sturgeon needs to be 30 years old to bring caviar. Figure 8: sturgeon (caviar) landings in Caspian from Ugo Bardi TOD August 2008 4 -inequality 99% of the visible Universe is plasma : being solid is exceptional If there is equality at the starting gate, there is only one winner at the finish line: we were all created with only one spermatozoid out of over 200 millions Inequality of accumulations can be seen on the distribution of giants fields (defined as over 500 Mboe). Presently about 50% of the oil production is coming from giant fields. Out of about 600 sedimentary basins only 200 have oil & gas fields and about 20 have the majority of oil & gas reserves. Figure 9: location map of giant oil and gas fields from Horn AAPG 2005 The map of giant oil & gas fields (HORN AAPG 2005) is to be compared with the map of sedimentary basins. Middle East, West Siberia, North Sea and Gulf Coast display high concentration. The South hemisphere contains much less giant fields (less sedimentary basins). Figure 10: location map of sedimentary basins from Schlumberger 5 Pareto (1848-1923) has claimed the famous 80/20 ratio on the distribution size-number 80% of the subsidies to farmers go to 20% of the farmers 80% of medical expenditures are for 20% of the patients In fact the Pareto law corresponds to a fractal distribution -fractal distribution -autosimilarity : one part is similar to all = cauliflower = fractal -perfect = power law = linear in a display log-log rank-size -limited world = every is curved (by gravity) = parabolic fractal World earthquakes located by USGS in NEIC database are plotted as magnitude (= log of the seismic moment) versus log of the rank (by decreasing magnitude). The 1973-2008 plot should be linear following the Gutenberg-Richter law (power law) when in fact it is curved and can be modelled by a parabolic fractal (Xo=9; a=0,5, b=0,075). Figure 11: magnitude of earthquakes from USGS with parabolic and linear fractal -urban agglomerations (defined by the continuity of the buildings, different from administrative boundaries) 6 The US urban agglomerations over 100 000 inhabitants can be modelled with different distribution = parabolic fractal, stretched exponential (Laherrere & Sornette 1998) and Mandelbrot-Zipf (power law: see Gell-Man 1995 “ The quark and the jaguar: adventures in the Simple and the Complex”). The best extrapolation of the aggregation from agglomerations below 100 000 to the minimum agglomeration (one people) is the parabolic fractal (46 M against reality of 56) against 96 for Mandelbrot and 28 for stretched exponential Figure 12: US urban agglomerations: parabolic fractal, stretched exponential and Mandelbrot-Zipf -oilfield reserves Parabolic fractal is a good tool to study the habitat of Petroleum Systems, but it works less when used to study country distribution. Norway has several Petroleum Systems and the main one is shared with the UK. Then a parabolic model only for Norway is not supposed to be the best tool. The oilfield distribution in fractal display every ten years shows that the size over 200 Mb was reached in 1997. But there is a lack of fields between 200 Mb and 1000 Mb, likely due to aggregating several PS. A study by Petroleum System should be done. Figure 13: Norway oilfield parabolic fractal distribution 1967-2007 7 In fractal distribution the number one (rank one) could be also more than number one of the fractal distribution being much higher than normal distribution from rank 2 and beyond: it is the King effect King effect Plotting the fractal display of France urban agglomerations shows that the first rank is well above the rest of the crowd, like a King arises at the beginning from a bunch of barons by taking their wealth and eliminating them in order to have no competition. It is the case of Paris, as also London and Moscow, but not New York. In France the display of 57 urban agglomerations above 100 000 inhabitants in 1994 allows by extrapolation to the minimum size of 1 inhabitant to obtain a cumulative population of the country very close to the census Figure 14: Distributions of French urban agglomerations with Paris= King Fig 5 Distribution Agglomérations de France Paris = "Roi" Distribution of french agglomerations Paris = "King" 7 P a r i s data=25,1 6 model=31 total=56 5 recenst=56,6 Mhab e total 57 agg = 25,1 Mhab l 4 l i a t g 3 o l 2 y = -0,1395x2 - 0,4682x + 6,2647 1 R 2 = 0,9886 0 0 1 2 log r3ang 4 5 6 8 In the Palaeozoic gas system of the Anglo-Dutch basin (UK, Netherlands, Germany) Groningen us a king (Laherrère J.H. , A.Perrodon, C.J.Campbell 1996 “The world’s gas potential” Petroconsultants report July, 200p) -Benford’s law = first digit law Newcomb in 1881, finding that the first pages of the log book were more soiled than the last pages, wrote “note on the frequency of use of the different digit in natural numbers”. Benford in 1938 stated that the first digit x of many natural distributions (lake area, river length, number of the street in a telephone book) follows an equation like P(x=n) = log(1+1/x) for n=1,2,...,9, meaning that 1 is found about 30% (instead of 11%) more often than 9 found about 5% (instead of 11%). The explanation is that small events are more frequent than large events. Benford’s law gives a almost perfect parabolic fractal with b=0,75 and c=0,12. The first digit of physical constants is close of Benford’s law, despite the small number of them Figure 15: Benford’s law, parabolic fractal and physical constants Benford law is used to find tax fraud (Hill 1988) where cheaters use first digit 1 as often as 9 in false reporting. -non linearity Linearity is only one solution, but Universe is non linear and there are often several solutions Linear is only local, like the bubble level = horizontal or the plumb line = vertical in one point When you find one solution, do not stop searching for a better one. How to choose between different solutions How many solutions for 2, 4, 6, ?, ?, ?, ? rank: 1, 2, 3, n-2, n-1, n value: 2, 4, 6, N-2, N-1, N There are numberless solutions 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16 N =2n or N = (N-1) +2 first degree 2, 4, 6, 10, 16, 26, 42, 68 N = (N-1) + (N-2) 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16 N = 2(N-1) - (N-2) 2, 4, 6, 6, 0, -18, -54,-108 N = 3(N-1) - 3(N-2) 2, 4, 6, 4, -14,-76,-234,-556 N = 4(N-1) - 5(N-2) 9 2, 4, 6, 0, -54,-324,-1458,-5832 N = 6(N-1) - 9(N-2) 2, 4, 6, 12, 18, 54, 108, 162 N = 3(N-2) 2, 4, 6, 14, 16, 54, 26, 244 N = 5(N-2) – (N-1) 2, 4, 6, 16, 10, 92, -114, 872 N = 7(N-2) – 2(N-1) 2, 4, 6, 18, 0, 162, -486, 2916 N = 9(N-2) – 3(N-1) second degree 2, 4, 6, 14, 32, 130, 642, 9092 N = (N-1)+(N-2)2/2 2, 4, 6, 4, -10, -28,-106,-604 N = 2(N-1) - (N-2)2/2 2, 4, 6, 16, 226, 5 104, 3 109, N= (N-1)2-5(N-2) 2, 4, 6, 10, 32, 462, 1 105, N = ((N-1)2-(N-2)2)/2 Occam razor (1285-1349): the best model is
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