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ISSN 2221-2698 Arkhangelsk, Russia DOI 10.17238/Issn2221-2698.2016
ISSN 2221-2698 Arkhangelsk, Russia DOI 10.17238/issn2221-2698.2016.25 Arctic and North. 2016. N 25 2 ISSN 2221-2698 Arctic and North. 2016. N 25. CC BY-SA © Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov, 2016 © Editorial board of electronic scientific journal “Arctic and North”, 2016 The journal “Arctic and North” is registered at Roskomnadzor as an internet periodical issued in Russian and English, Registration certificate El № FS77-42809, November 26, 2010; at the system of the Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI), license contract № 96-04/2011R, April 12, 2011; Scientific Electronic Library "Сyberleninka" (2016); in the catalogs of international databases: Directory of Open Access Journals — DOAJ (2013); Global Serials Directory Ulrichsweb, USA (2013); NSD, Norway (2015); InfoBase Index, India (2015); ERIH PLUS, Norway (2016). The Journal is issued not less than 4 times per year; 25 issues were published in 2011—2016. The Founder — Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov (Arkhangelsk, Russia). Editor-in-Chief — Yury F. Lukin, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Honorary Worker of the higher education of the Russian Federation. All journal issues are available free of charge in Russian and English. Rules and regulations on submission, peer reviews, publication and the Declaration of Ethics are available at: http://narfu.ru/aan/rules/ The Journal is devoted to the scientific articles focused on the Arctic and the North relevant for the following professional degrees: 08.00.00 Economics; 22.00.00 Sociology; 23.00.00 Political science; 24.00.00 Culturology. No payments for publication are collected from authors, including students and post-graduate students. -
Update on Megaproject Megaproject
The Oil Drum | Update on Megaproject Megaproject http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3347 Update on Megaproject Megaproject Posted by Stuart Staniford on December 10, 2007 - 11:00am Topic: Supply/Production Tags: megaprojects, peak oil, plateau [list all tags] New liquids capacity with first oil in each year as estimated from Petroleum Review megaproject reports (last available estimate in each case), and interim estimates from Wikipedia table as of December 10th, 2007. Error bars on Petroleum Review figures are as documented in Is the Decline of Base Production Accelerating. The Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects task force (Khebab, Ace, and I) has been busy over the last few weeks. With some assistance from helpful strangers, we have been ploughing through press releases and annual reports, adding projects to the Wikipedia page on Oil Megaprojects. I introduced this project two weeks ago, and today I want to give an interim progress report. As of now, we've reached about 350 citations used in collating the information. I have mainly been working on the past - the years 2003-2006 - while the years from 2007 onwards have mainly been handled by Ace and Khebab (though there is some crossover both ways). The 2003-2006 projects, of which there are currently 108, depend on about 140 citations. In attempting to assure completeness and quality of the list, I have reviewed the 2003-2006 annual reports, and/or all press releases, for the following companies: Anadarko Apache Page 1 of 7 Generated on September 1, 2009 at 2:51pm EDT The Oil Drum | Update on Megaproject -
Peak Oil Strategic Management Dissertation
STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR MANAGING THE TRANSITION FROM PEAK OIL TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY BY SARAH K. ODLAND STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR MANAGING THE TRANSITION FROM PEAK OIL TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY BY SARAH K. ODLAND JUNE 2006 ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF THE DIVISION OF BUSINESS AND ACCOUNTING, MERCY COLLEGE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MAY 2006 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS AND CHARTS v LIST OF TABLES vii PREFACE viii INTRODUCTION ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM 1 PART I THE BIG ROLLOVER: ONSET OF A PETROLEUM DEMAND GAP AND SWITCH TO A SELLERS’ MARKET CHAPTER 1 WHAT”S OIL EVER DONE FOR YOU? (AND WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF IT STOPPED DOING IT?) 5 Oil: Cheap Energy on Demand - Oil is Not Just a Commodity - Heavy Users - Projected Demand Growth for Liquid Petroleum - Price Elasticity of Oil Demand - Energy and Economic Growth - The Dependence of Productivity Growth on Expanding Energy Supplies - Economic Implications of a Reduced Oil Supply Rate CHAPTER 2 REALITY CHECK: TAKING INVENTORY OF PETROLEUM SUPPLY 17 The Geologic Production of Petroleum - Where the Oil Is and Where It Goes - Diminishing Marginal Returns of Production - Hubbert’s Peak: World Oil Production Peaking and Decline - Counting Oil Inventory: What’s in the World Warehouse? - Oil Resources versus Accessible Reserves - Three Camps: The Peak Oilers, Official Agencies, Technology Optimists - Liars’ Poker: Got Oil? - Geopolitical Realities of the Distribution of Remaining World -
The Major Greenhouse Gases
A New Kind of Sharing A New Kind of Sharing Why We Can't Ignore Global Environmental Change June D. Hall and Arthur J. Hanson INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTRE Ottawa • Cairo • Dakar• Johannesburg• Montevideo• Nairobi New Delhi• Singapore Preface We live in a time of great uncertainty, of dazzling political change, and of shifting economic reality. In the twinkling of an eye we have witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the end of the Cold War, and real progress toward nuclear disarmament. We have seen the settlement of many long-standing civil wars, the first steps toward the dismantling of apartheid, and a new status for the United Nations. But the heralded "peace dividend" may be diverted to brush fires else where, as ethnie rivalries, doused during the Cold War, are reignited. In Canada, we face the possible breakup of the country, economic malaise, and the decline of our traditional sources of income. We watch the parallel rise to prominence of Pacifie Rim countries and the launching of an integrated European economy in 1992. In the midst of all this, it would be tempting to close our eyes to the problems of other regions, and especially to forget about the struggles of developing nations outs ide the mainstream of our daily thoughts and actions. In preparation for the 20th anniversary of Canada's Interna tional Development Research Centre (IDRC) in 1990, several studies were commissioned on the impact on Canada of change in the countries we have corne to call the South. This book is one of the products of this effort. -
Wikipedia Megaproject Update (August 2008)
The Oil Drum | Wikipedia Megaproject Update (August 2008) http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4419 Wikipedia Megaproject Update (August 2008) Posted by Sam Foucher on August 25, 2008 - 8:42am Topic: Supply/Production Tags: megaprojects, wikipedia [list all tags] This is an update on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject Database maintained by the Oil Megaprojects task force (Ace, Stuart Staniford, myself and many others). The database contains now more than 440 separate entries and is growing everyday. The derived net new capacity (i.e. once depletion from existing production is included) is around 1.5 mbpd for 2008 and 2009 after which depletion may dominate. Possible future supply capacity scenario for crude oil and NGL based on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject database. The resource base post-2002 decline rate is a linearly increasing rate from 0% to 4.5% between 2003 and 2008 then constant at 4.5% afterward. The decline rate for each annual addition is 4.5% after first Page 1 of 6 Generated on September 1, 2009 at 2:20pm EDT The Oil Drum | Wikipedia Megaproject Update (August 2008) http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4419 2003 and 2008 then constant at 4.5% afterward. The decline rate for each annual addition is 4.5% after first year. The observed data points are the monthly crude oil + NGL estimates from the EIA. Here is the last compilation of new supply peak contributions stacked according to their projected first oil year: update: Ace has also produced this chart yesterday (Click to enlarge): Below is the evolution of this chart since the database creation. -
Peak Oil and Australia's National Infrastructure
1 PEAK OIL AND AUSTRALIA’S NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE SUBMISSION TO INFRASTRUCTURE AUSTRALIA Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas October 2008 We need to leave oil before it leaves us. Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency, 2008 The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences. Winston Churchill, 1936 Peak Oil and Australia’s National Infrastructure ASPO-Australia i Contents Contents i About ASPO-Australia ii Executive Summary iii Introduction 1 The Peak in World Oil Production 1 Implications for the World Economy 7 Socio-economic Implications for Australia 8 Infrastructure Australia’s Goals and Strategic Priorities 10 Energy Infrastructure 11 Transport Infrastructure 12 Conclusion 15 List of Figures 1. World Oil Production vs Discovery, Regular Conventional Oil 1 2. World Oil & Gas Depletion Profiles, ASPO 2007 Base Case 3 3. World Oil Production, 1980-2008 4 4. Oil Megaprojects Database, Moderate Decline Rate Scenario 5 5. World Oil Exports, 1965-2020 6 6. Australian Oil Production vs Demand, 1970-2030 9 Peak Oil and Australia’s National Infrastructure ASPO-Australia ii About ASPO-Australia ASPO-Australia is a non-partisan network of professionals working to reduce Australia’s oil vulnerability, by bringing the probabilities, risks and opportunities presented by peak oil to the attention of decision-makers. Our membership includes scientists, geologists, engineers, transport and urban planners and a wide range of other professionals, comprising working groups focusing on the implications of peak oil on different sections of the community and the economy. -
Crude Oil and Liquids Capacity Additions: 2011-2015
The Oil Drum | Crude Oil and Liquids Capacity Additions: 2011-2015 http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7785 Crude Oil and Liquids Capacity Additions: 2011-2015 Posted by Sam Foucher on April 13, 2011 - 8:39pm This is a guest post by J. Michael Bodell and myself. Michael is currently an energy consultant operating as Aperio Energy Research. Mr. Bodell is the in-house expert on oil and natural gas market fundamentals for Strategic Energy Research & Capital, LLC, a specialized brokerage and investment firm. He worked for CERA from 2005 to 2007 and was the architect and lead project manager for a two-phase multi-client report, "Diminishing Returns: The Cost of North American Gas Supply in an Unconventional Era," a body of work that evaluated the all-in, full- cycle cost structure of about 275 supply basins. In 2008 as a consultant, he was the lead author on a CERA decision brief research paper, "Natural Gas Yield Curve: A Powerful Tool for Natural Gas Market Analysis." Prior to CERA and SERC, Mr. Bodell was the strategic planning manager for Unocal Midstream & Trade, where he lead a team to perform oil, gas and power market fundamentals and strategy evaluation in underground natural gas storage development. This analysis is designed to demonstrate why we believe that productive capacity relative to consumption will be sufficiently tight over the next several years to elevate crude prices to the investment cost of the marginal unit, about $100 per barrel. In fact, if annual non-OECD demand continues to grow at 3.5 percent or 1.4 Mb/d per annum, we expect another episode of deficit comparative inventory that will elevate spot prices above this mid-cycle price. -
Peak Oil and Our Future How Energy Depletion Will Change Our Lives
Peak Oil and Our Future How Energy Depletion Will Change Our Lives by Doug Craft [email protected] Updated March 2013 © 2013Charles Douglas Craft Image Sources (ASPO Spain 2002, DOE 2004, EIA 2007b) Peak Oil and Our Future How Energy Depletion Will Change Our Lives by Doug Craft [email protected] Doug's Resume Art: http://www.dougcraftfineart.com Original June 2007 – Updated March 2013 © 2013 Charles Douglas Craft SUMMARY Peak Oil and declining energy supplies represent the most serious crisis we have ever faced as a species. Current world population and our relatively luxurious way of life in America are completely dependent on cheap and readily available energy. Our civilization has developed over the past 150 years because we have discovered and exploited abundant – but finite – fossil fuels for cheap energy. Coal, oil, and natural gas were formed millions of years ago, and our use of this one-time planetary energy endowment has significantly increased food production and has led to exponential population growth. Cheap energy has produced social progress and technological wonders, but it has also allowed our population to expand seriously beyond the ability of the earth's natural (non-fossil fuel) carrying capacity. Production of all finite natural resources over time follows a bell-shaped curve of increasing production, peaking maximum production, and then decreasing production. Unfortunately, this behavior is a fundamental property of nature and the laws of thermodynamics. While there's a large amount of underground oil remaining in the world, we have already used the higher quality and easy to produce half of known reserves and are at or very near the ultimate peak of world production – Peak Oil. -
Oil and Gas News Briefs, September 24, 2018
Oil and Gas News Briefs Compiled by Larry Persily September 24, 2018 LNG contractors warn developers not to underestimate costs (S&P Global Platts; Sept. 20) - Global contractors bidding on the second wave of U.S. LNG export terminals had a simple message for developers: "You get what you pay for." As Gastech wrapped up in Barcelona, executives from Bechtel, Fluor, KBR, McDermott International, and Spain's Tecnicas Reunidas provided a sense of realism about costs. "Enthusiasm is not a strategy," Fluor CEO David Seaton said during a Sept. 20 panel. "That's a lot of what we see with the new customers who are more the developer type. All they are doing is looking at their spreadsheet rather than the real cost of building." The message comes amid delays at several of the first-wave export terminals under construction along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, including at Freeport LNG's facility in Texas, Sempra's Cameron LNG site in Louisiana and Kinder Morgan's Elba Island project in Georgia. With more than a dozen terminals proposed as part of the second wave of U.S. projects targeting the 2020s, there is pressure to sign engineering, procurement, and construction deals for the lowest possible cost. Cameron's experience is an example of what can happen when insufficient attention is paid up front to properly bidding for the realistic cost of construction, said McDermott CEO David Dickson, whose company inherited its contractor role on the project when it acquired CB&I earlier this year. It had to take a write-down because of extra costs related to construction. -
The Russian Arctic Vision: Implications for Arctic Governance in the Context of Climate Change
PhD programme in Science and Management of Climate Change 30th cycle Research thesis The Russian Arctic vision: implications for Arctic governance in the context of climate change PhD coordinator: Prof. Carlo Barbante Thesis supervisior: Prof. Stefano Soriani PhD candidate: Sandi Lansetti 1 The arguments of the thesis have been the basis for the following publications. • On the energy issue a paper has been published in the journal “Arktika i Sever” (Арктика и Север - The Arctic and the North, 2016: 25, pp. 5-19) in the 25th edition number of the Journal under the title The “keep in the ground future” of Arctic fossil fuel resources https://narfu.ru/upload/iblock/59b/01_lansetti.pdf On the same issue, another updated and revised article is being submitted for publication. • A presentation was held at the Arctic Science Summit Week 2017 in Prague with the title “The Russian Arctic Offshore Gas Projects: Facts, Scale, Prospects and Climate Concerns and Limitations”. The abstract of the presentation has been published in the Book of abstracts of The Arctic Science Summit Week 2017 “A Dynamic Arctic in Global Change” p.169. • The security and militarization issue has been the starting point for a publication in co-authorship with my thesis supervisor prof. Stefano Soriani in the journal Rivista Geografica Italiana (ANVUR group A Journal, SSD 11/B1). The article has been accepted for publication: under the title: Towards a “Militarization Rush” in the Arctic Region? Evidences, Recent Trends and Critical Issues in the Case of the Russian Arctic. Riv. Geogr. Ital. 125(3), settembre 2018. • A paper “Russian Arctic uses, discourses and implications for climate change and sustainability of the region” will be presented on the Russian Arctic vision at the IGU (International Geographical Union) Conference in Moscow, June 4-6, 2018; session: Cold & High Altitude Regions challenges and solutions for achieving sustainability. -
IEA WEO 2008 - World Oil Forecasts Using Wikipedia Megaprojechttst,P :D/E/Wc W20w0.8Theoildrum.Com/Node/4792
The Oil Drum | IEA WEO 2008 - World Oil Forecasts using Wikipedia Megaprojechttst,p :D/e/wc w20w0.8theoildrum.com/node/4792 IEA WEO 2008 - World Oil Forecasts using Wikipedia Megaprojects, Dec 2008 Posted by ace on December 1, 2008 - 10:05am Topic: Supply/Production Tags: decline rate, forecast, iea, megaprojects, original, peak oil, weo 2008, wikipedia [list all tags] In this analysis, Samuel Foucher (“Khebab”) and I (Tony Eriksen or “ace”) present an update of Wikipedia Megaprojects data. We also provide forecasts of future oil production, reflecting the Megaprojects data. The IEA uses megaprojects in its analysis and we reconcile our Megaprojects information to the data they provide in their report. A wide variety of methods can be used to forecast future oil production. Each will provide different indications. Sam and I each make projections with megaprojects data, using somewhat different methods. Sam’s projections are shown in Figure 6. My forecasts are shown in Figures 8, 9, and 10. Despite our differing methods, the indications we produce are all substantially lower than the indications of the IEA. Until quality data about production history, reserves and future development plans including capacities are obtained for fields in secretive OPEC countries, forecasts beyond 2012 are highly uncertain, regardless of the source. While quality data remain unavailable, the world's future energy security, in particular liquid fuels supply security, remains an extremely high risk. This chart shows the IEA WEO 2008 forecast together with Sam's forecast derived from using Megaprojects sanctioned capacities and yet to be sanctioned capacities (including yet to find oil - YTF). -
Markets Consolidate; US Optimism up Into Trump Administration; Inflation a Bit Firmer Across Countries
Weekly Economic and Markets Review 15 January 2017 Markets consolidate; US optimism up into Trump administration; inflation a bit firmer across countries Key market indicators Summary Stock markets Index Change (%) World equity markets advanced in the week, albeit moderately. The Dow weekly YTD Regional Jones Industrials is still attempting to break 20,000, some caution appears Abu Dhabi SM 4,681 1.72 2.97 to have set in as we approach the Trump inauguration. GCC markets are Bahrain ASI 1,212 0.44 -0.71 led so far this year by Dubai and Kuwait, while Saudi takes a breather Dubai FM 3,721 2.56 5.37 Egypt EGX 30 13,224 3.12 7.12 following a very strong finish to 2016. KSA Tadawul 6,922 -3.85 -4.00 Kuwait SE 6,108 4.74 6.26 Oil, exchange rates and yields were also about consolidation, after big Muscat SM 30 5,762 -0.52 0.31 Qatar Exchange 10,709 -0.07 2.61 moves late in 2016. Brent oil is hovering around $55 per barrel (bbl), the MSCI GCC 471 -1.73 -0.90 euro is back above 1.05, and the 10-year US note closed the week at International 2.4%. DAX 11,629 0.26 1.29 DJIA 19,886 -0.39 0.62 Inflation data from China, the Eurozone, the US and the UK among others FTSE 100 7,338 1.77 2.73 Nikkei 19,287 -0.86 0.90 point to firmer headline numbers (thanks to higher oil prices).