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„Жан Моне“ Център за високи Center of Excellence for постижения в изследването на Teaching and Research on the европеизацията на държавите от Europeanization of the Countries of Югоизточна Европа South-

WILL THE EUROPEAN ORCHESTRA PLAY „DREAMING” BY JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER?

PROF. INGRID SHIKOVA

16 September 2017

ach President of the Address in front of the .[1] In strives for staying in the history of the his interview for the electronic edition E . Some remain with the „Politico“ Jean-Claude Juncker shares that he is not implementation of large-scale projects such as the an integration fanatic, but is for deepening of the development of the Single Market and of the Union, as he immediately makes the provision that Economic and Monetary Union, others get recorded this should happen with the full repect of the in the annals as the only Commission that has justifiable national interests of the Member States. It submitted a resignation, third would probably be is in this spirit in which his State of the Union Address rarely mentioned by the historians because their sounded – more integration, but without repelling leadership has been apathetic and lacking the states that are not so enthusiastic. individuality. Jean-Claude Juncker with certainty will remain in history with the fact that during his The criticism that he suffered for his previous leadership of the European Commission the speeches was so sharp that he was called „a captain is going to lose one of its significant of a sinking ship”. The address in 2015 „Time for members and for the first time is going to „narrow”. honesty, unity and solidarity” can be characterizsed But it is hardly for him to be satisfied by this and with one word and it is „refugees”. The other main probably he would prefer to be remembered as the topics were Greece and the saving programme, and President who has outlined the future way to the the international conflicts – a special attention was European unification. This is the aspiration that given to Ukraine, Libyia, ISIS. Juncker’s address in becomes clear from his annual State of the Union

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2016 „To a better Europe – a Europe that protects, wind” is not accidental. The way it sounds is much provides opportunities and defends” was delivered different than his las year’s address did, which could in a shocking environment after the result of the be called „Gone with the wind”. referendum in Great Britain and was focused not as much on the members of the European Parliament Jean-Claude Juncker often emphasizes two as on the forthcoming summit meeting of the heads important characteristics of the Commission he has of state and heads of government in Bratislava – a presided, calling it „a political Commission” and „the format without Great Britain. Its Europe’s last chance Commission”. Presiding it main messages were related to the „existential” EU during his term, however, turned to be a complicated crisis, populism, taking responsibility by the national task. It found itself between the hammer and the leaders who were called for going to Bratislava anvil – on the one hand are the expectations of the prepared with at least three reasons why we need European Union citizens to cope with the existing the European Union. To this we can add the anxiety problems and to take the necessary decisions in the from the then forthcoming results from the elections difficult situations, and on the other hand – the in the and particularly in , the increasingly greater aspiration (though still a veiled fear from a domino effect from Brexit, but also the one) of the Member States to turn the Commission using of the 60th anniversary of signing the Treaties into a secretariate and to restrict its role as a of Rome to strengthen the unity and reforming of supranational institution. To preside the the Union. Commission in such an atmosphere you need acrobatic skills for manoeuvering and balancing. It is Nowadays, however, the situation in the European namely what Juncker tries to do – to find the „healthy” Union itself is more different. Even the biggest balance for the „sixth scenario” for the future of the sceptics admit that the ship is in better condition – EU summarizig the results from the common though slowly, the economy registers growth, the European debate on the five scenarios proposed at unemployment in most of the countries decreases, the beginning of the year. the voice of the populism is muffled by the election results in France and Netherlands, the initial shock This is the most important address of Juncker, as from the referendum in the is 2018 is the last full year of his term, and perhaps also overcome and the negotiations (at least for the time of his long-term political career. The next being) are under control, the public opinion is more presentation of the state of the Union in September favourable. Of course, there are many problems and 2018 will be a reporting one rather than a contradictions which wait to be solved – programming one, as in the spring of 2019 there are strengthening the area, the immigration policy, forthcoming elections to the European Parliament the fight against terrorism, protection of the borders, and a new Commission. Perhaps that is particularly the common defence, etc. why Juncker decided to present his own views on the future of the European project. This is really his last In his address of 2015 he emphasized that „No wind chance to close the still „bleeding wound” from the favours he who has no destined port – we need to United Kingdom’s withdrawal, as he shows the way know where we are headed”. But now there is tail- for the future reformed European Union. Although wind and the poetic title of this year’s address of the he sounds the opinion of a number of government European Commission’s President – “Sailing with the leaders, of non-governmental organisations, of

2 national parliaments and of the members of the society; by the Western Balkans countries; by the European Commission, Juncker claims that he is business…. And so the listing would continue for a tempted to present his own views and he even calls very long time because Juncker’s address concerned, his address a „personal manifest”, taking the risk to although briefly, a lot of areas – from trade, internal be criticized again. market, industrial policy and the euro area to the European social pillar, the defence and the If we have to define this year’s address of Juncker – it impossible Turkish membership. It is due to this is „balance”. It aims neither too high, nor too low. reason that it is difficult to make an analytical Too ambitious proposals would remain only on paper commentary on the whole address. From now on the because of the precautiousness of some Member „unravelling” of the proposals presented in the „sixth States, the complete lack of ambition, however, scenario” is about to happen. would be even more unfavourable for the assessment of the term of Juncker’s Commission. The thing that cannot be denied is that there are Where is actually the balance proposed by Juncker? positions in the address – „no” to new treaties, to a On the one hand, the activation of taking common separate Parliament for the euro area, to the division decisions in areas, in which a deeper integration is of first-class and second-class citizens, to the elite really necessary and wanted, and on the other hand, clubs for chosen states; „yes” to the access to the preserving the national sovereignty in areas, in which euro area and the Schengen Area of the states that the Member States are right to insist on keeping it. have met the criteria, to a European social club, to Juncker is trying to use the favourable moment and more transparency in the trade negotiations. the tail-wind for accomplishing a „full steam ahead” Juncker’s position was also stated clearly, which can course, but at the same time is aware that the be summerized as „One speed, one currency, one dangerous reefs of the national interests are also on president”. his way. Particularly dangerous is the division East- West or that between „old” and already not that There are ideas as well – some of them are new, „new” Member States. In one of his interviews other – a bit forgotten old ones. For example, the Juncker says that always before making a proposal idea for uniting the positions of the European he estimates whether it would cause contradictions Commission President and of the European Council between the Western and the Eastern Member President was promoted by Jean-Luc Dehaene States. during the Convention on a Constitution for Europe. A more innovative is the idea for fast decision- Indeed, in his address Juncker made curtsies and making in the area of foreign policy with qualified tried to be liked by everyone – by the European majority. It is positive that an attempt has been Parliament, by the Member States – by those of made „the sixth scenario” to rest on the basic them that expect to become members of the European values – freedom, equality and rule of law Schengen Area and of the euro area; by those that – a bit forgotten by some states in the EU. In the grumble at the double food standards; by that address there is music both for the ears of the „saves Europe’s honour”; by France, through federalists and for the sovereignists, as well as for supporting a number of the French President’s the poetically inclined and for the pragmatic people. proposals; by , pronouncing the most Maybe it wins also with the fact that it really sounded important part of his address in German; by the civil too „sincerely and personally” with statements for

3 the difficult, but eternal love to Europe, for a long enlargement of the euro area coincided with and hard political way. (Probably because of the Germany’s vision, but he didn’t miss to emphasize lessons from the intergovernmental conferences for that this should happen when the accession criteria the Treaties of Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and are met. From the French Presidency also came Lisbon in which he has participated, Juncker is positive responses for „ambitious proposals” absolutely against initiating negotiations for a new corresponding to the French ideas, especially about treaty.) Presenting his view on the future of the the control over foreign investments in strategic European Union, Juncker composes his own piece of sectors of the European economy and for holding music – „Dreaming” by Jean-Claude Juncker. Others civil conventions on the EU future. Most of the may call it „Love’s Labours Lost”, because actually it positive first reactions to Juncker’s address came is universally known that the decisions on these from the Central and Eastern Europe countries. The proposals will be taken by the national governments. Slovenian Prime Minister liked the emphasis on the necessity of observing the rule of law in the EU. And And here comes the most significant question – will the Czech Prime Minister remained very pleased the European orchestra play „Dreaming” by Jean- with the rejection of the double standard for foods, Claude Juncker? Without the will and the consent of as he pointed out that the main credit for that goes the Member States only the scores will remain. The to the Czech Republic and Slovakia and he praised first reactions to Juncker’s address in the European Juncker for the convergence between the East and Parliament hall were positive, it was often the West. The Slovak State Secretary on the interrupted by applause. The comments coming European Affairs emphasized that Slovakia would from the national capitals, however, are not so support the initiatives for the progress of the enthusiastic, and some of them are even more than European project and for keeping the European cold. The Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte called unity. Only the Hungarian Foreign Minister called Juncker „a romanticist” and rejected a large part of Juncker’s approach „a dead-end street”, but still he his main ideas. The Austrian Chancellor Christian supported the common defence. The most Kern does not accept the enlargement of the enthusiastic is the reaction from Romania – both on Schengen Area and the euro area before solving the Juncker’s appeal for acceding Bulgaria and Romania issues with the tax frauds, the commissioned to the Schengen area and on his proposal for workers and the violation of the requirements for organizing a summit meeting in Sibiu on 30th March state debt limits. The Danish Prime Minister Lars 2019 for the future European union (already without Ramusen concentrated on the proposal for „one the United Kingdom). The Bulgarian Prime Minister captain to steer the ship” and called for not mixing expressed his opinion in Twitter through Juncker’s up the roles and competences of the European words: „It’s high time to bring Bulgaria and Romania Commission and the European Council. His opinion into the Schengen Area”. is shared also by other European leaders whose striving is to oppose the leadership role of the This short review of the first reactions to the State of European Commission namely by the figure of the the Union Address by Jean-Claude Juncker gives a European Council President. very brief idea of the forthcoming discussions and of Nevertheless, there is not a lack of positive the fact that it is not easy the propsals made to be responses on Juncker’s ideas. The German Finance turned into reality. Some of them with certainty Minister Wolfgang Schäuble shared that the won’t happen, others will be changed, third maybe

4 will see the light of the day but in the more distant September 2010 and is focused mainly on the future. Only after a limited number of days (on 26th economic condition and the unemployment. September this year) the French roadmap for the European Union is expected, which Emanuel Macron promised (which can become Franco-German of the engine starts working immediately after the elections). This will inevitably have an effect on the ideas for the future of the European project. And despite of all the conventionalities, the positive thing is that Juncker’s address provoked interest and reactions, and after that comes the reflection. Because each of the proposals has to be carefully analyzed, its practical implementation and the consequences for each state of the European Union has to be considered. At the end of his address Juncker mentioned that he had learnt from . If he has really learnt his lessons, he has to make the next step – to work hard with the national leaders, to explain and to convince them. That’s what Jacques Delors was doing, who was called an incorrigible dreamer, but also a reasonable pragmaticist. That is the reason why Margaret Thatcher herself acknowledged him in her memoirs as a great actor on the European scene.

Endnotes: [1] In compliance with Article 295 of the Treaty for the Functioning of the EU and with the signed interinstitutional framework agreement between the European Parliament and the European Commission (from 20th Oct. 2010)[1], each year during the first session of the European Parliament a debate is held on the state of the Union. The President of the European Commission pronounces an address, in which he makes an assessment of the current state of the EU, outlines the priorities for the next years and shows a written document with the main elements of the preparation for the Commission Working Programme for the next year. The first State of the Union Address was pronounced by the President on the 7th

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