Mars Exploration Program Status Planetary Sciences Subcommittee of NAC 3-4 Dec 2009
Doug McCuistion Mars Exploration Program, Director Agenda
• Program Status and Planning – Current Mission Status – NASA-ESA Partnership Progress
• MSL – Current Status and Readiness to Proceed Review – Budget Status—Jim Green
• MSR Cost Validity Studies Mars Exploration Program Mission Overview
Progress according to plan Area of concern; Problem3 can be resolved within Significant problem; Solution not identified All commitments can be met reporting organization; Needs attention Needs action/help beyond reporting org. NASA-ESA Partnership Status
• NASA and ESA signed a Statement of Intent in November ’09 to outline partnership
• Agreed to work toward establishment of a new joint initiative to define and implement their scientific, programmatic, and technological goals for the exploration of Mars.
“Initially focusing on 2016 and 2018, this initiative would span several launch opportunities … conducting astrobiological, geological, geophysical, climatological, and other high-priority investigations and aiming at returning samples from Mars in the mid-2020s.”
• Development of 2016 and 2018 mission concepts are in progress 2016 NASA/ESA Orbiter Overview
Mission Overview—ESA Mission Lead Orbital science and refresh telecommunications infrastructure • Critical secondary mission—ESA Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) demonstrator Primary Science—Trace gas detection and characterization, incl. methane Potential Secondary Science—moderate resolution imaging (2-3m) Tertiary science--<5kg battery-only landed science, e.g. seismology, meteorology, etc. All instruments jointly selected through AOs for orbiter & lander
Key NASA roles/deliverables Orbiter science payload (including AO) Launch vehicle – Atlas V 421-class Proximity link/Ka-Band deep space-to-earth link Science operation lead; aerobrake design/operation lead; relay lead
Key Near-term Milestones Mar ‘10: Mission/System Definition Review (øA -> øB) Nov ‘10: Mission PDR Jun ‘11: Mission/System Confirmation Review (øB -> øC)
"For Planning and Discussion Purposes Only" 2018 NASA/ESA Rovers Overview
Mission Overview—NASA Mission Lead Deliver two rovers (one NASA, one ESA) to the surface of Mars Extended surface exploration with concurrent operations • NASA: astrobiology and contact science, sample caching • ESA rover: ExoMars exobiology payload • iSAG in formation to help define complimentary science
Key NASA roles/deliverables Rover—full science role TBD (iSAG, Decadal, etc.) Launch vehicle – Atlas V 531-class SkyCrane-based entry, descent and landing system Launch, cruise and EDL operations, operations for U.S. rover
Key Near-term Milestones Dec ’09: ESA Council Meeting for ESA approval Mar ‘10: Concept Feasibility Review Sept ‘10: ICD Version 0 Dec ‘10: Mission Concept Review (leads to KDP-A)
"For Planning and Discussion Purposes Only" NASA-ESA Joint Initiative Management Structure
• Joint ESA-NASA Engineering Working Group (JEWG) – Develop cooperative architecture options for shared mission responsibilities • Joint Instrument Definition Team (JIDT) – Define minimum investigation capabilities for orbital science – Focused on 2016 orbital measurements: Trace Gas Detection and mapping, aerosols, surface mapping • Disbanded before joint AO is developed/released – Collaborative Science Team being stood up for similar function, for 2018 mission • Joint Executive Board – JEWG and JIDT/CST report to an Executive Board made up of senior ESA and NASA Managers • NASA: McCuistion, Meyer, Li • ESA: Coradini, Chicarro, Ellwood • International Mars Architecture Review Team (iMART) – Additional European members are being added to MART; charter remains the same • Planning for residents in partner facilities during execution of missions
"For Planning and Discussion Purposes Only" Tentative Joint NASA-ESA Mars Initiative Portfolio Overview NASA-ESA Joint Mars Initiative Operational 2011 2013 2016 2018 2020 & Beyond 2001-2009 The Era of Mars Sample Return Odyssey MRO
MAVEN Mars Express Aeronomy Orbiter Collaboration ESA—NASA Trace Gas Mapper w/Imager & Telecom
NASA—ESA Rovers (Astrobiology/ Sample Return Phoenix Tech. and MER (deceased) Mars Science Lab ExoMars)
"For Planning and Discussion Purposes Only" Agenda
• Program Status and Planning – Current Mission Status – NASA-ESA Partnership
• MSL – Current Status and Readiness to Proceed Review – Budget Status—Jim Green
• MSR Cost Validity Studies The Readiness to Proceed Review
• “Readiness to Proceed” Review conducted Nov 18-20, 2009— actuators, avionics, power, etc. – Project must stabilize these key technical issues for meaningful CTG estimates – Include updated cost estimate
• Technical and budget activities are stabilizing, and variables all appear to be converging. – No insurmountable technical obstacles to completing system development and launch in the 2011 opportunity (pending outcome of recent actuator issue below)
• Technical Status – Actuators • All flight hardware in build--all flight units done by February (possible caveat below) • Rover Motor Controller control issues and motor speed issues resolved • HGA, RSM deploy, and WSA-2 life tests complete • LPHTA (August gearbox failure) had new issue at 1x life (74 samples) • WATeR life test on hold until new LPHTA issue understood • WSA-1 life test in January The Readiness to Proceed Review
– Avionics • Design stable, FPGAs being burned; Problem Failure Reports (PFR’s) being worked off • One T/R module failure on radar; under investigation but new unit installed – FSW development and V&V implementation on track with ATLO schedule
• Status of new issues introduced at last PSS – Rover power system design does not meet present mission requirements—Closed • Additional battery capacity added • SAM operations streamlined to reduce daily power consumption requirements – SAM qualification and wide range pump life test not complete—Open • WRP bearing modifications passed test, but life test failed due to pump rotor slippage on shaft • New variants in work; new bearing design began life test in the last 2 weeks • Critical decisions on redesign in December/January
• Next steps after “Readiness to Proceed” Review – APMC approval in January, including reserve augmentation level Remaining Challenges in Phase C/D
• Key areas of remaining challenges and risk: – Complete the SAM WRP’s, and SAM V&V testing – Deliver all flight actuators – Complete fault protection design/development – Determine if SAM Testbed can be accelerated – Communications strategy for EDL and surface operations is not yet complete – Develop the surface operations details for Phase E – Set budget reserves at adequate level to handle liens/ threats, and unknowns EM Actuators in Mechanisms
EM Robotic Arm with EM WATER & LPHTA Actuators DTM Mobility with EM WSA Actuators DTM RSM with EM WATER Actuators
EM Chuck/Feed, Thwack, Portion EM Scoop EM Spindle
13 MSL Budget Status--Green
14 FOR REFERENCE: Budget Status and Impacts Presented to July ‘09 PSS
• MSL overall budget needs remain around $400M at PMC, but reserves were unacceptably low (~13% cost-to-go)
• Expect a requirement for additional resources to restore reserves to adequate levels ($15-115M), predicted by several different cost models – Amount to be determined this calendar year after more progress has made on technical issues
• Impacts must be contained in Planetary Division – The Mars Program will repay non-Mars “loans”
• Impacts to cover low- to mid-range budget needs, in order: – Reduce or eliminate Mars Program APA in FY10 and FY11 – Reduce US portion of Mars-16/18/20 missions – Reduce Discovery future and New Frontiers mission lines (no impact to current schedules)
• Impacts increase to cover mid- to upper-range budget needs, in order: – Further reduce US portion of Mars-16/18/20 missions – Delay LADEE and ILN missions – Delay New Frontiers 3 phase B selection Current Budget Status
• Launch slip budget history – Oct ’08: Initial augmentation estimate from the Project ~$400M – Feb ‘09: Project's replan estimate, after analysis, was $432M – June ‘09: $432M Approved by Agency Program Management Council (APMC) • Also directed “additional reserves” be set aside to cover most of the Standing Review Boards estimates ($15M-$115M range reported to APMC)
• Nov ‘09: Readiness to Proceed Review included Project grass-roots estimate of replan, and independent cost analyses – Completion of independent cost analyses expected in mid-December – Cost range appears to still be well within the “additional reserves”
• Through rephasing, reducing carryover, etc., it is not envisioned that non-Mars AO’s, missions, etc. will be impacted by MSL overruns – MEP will cover all “loans”—net budget impacts remain confined to MEP, per SMD policy
• SMD has offered to assist in rephasing if they cannot be accommodated within Planetary Division (also repaid by MEP) Agenda
• Program Status and Planning – Current Mission Status – NASA-ESA Partnership
• MSL – Current Status and Readiness to Proceed Review – Budget Status—Jim Green
• MSR Cost Validity Studies When will Mars Sample Return be Credible?
• Scientific impetus – Sample return is necessary to achieve the next major step in our understanding of Mars and the Solar System – Recent, significant improvements in understanding of Mars & the potential for past and/or present life – Mars is one of the most accessible targets for sample return – Compelling high-priority sites for sample return have been identified • Engineering readiness – MEP investments have developed many capabilities critical for return of samples from Mars (e.g., rover mobility, “skycrane” EDL system, aerobraking) – Remaining technical challenges are identified/understood, with technology plans defined • Multi-element campaign – Multi-element campaign involves flight elements very similar to our current implementation experience – Reduces the number of technical challenges per element – Allows analogies for scope and cost estimation – Provides a resilient program & science robustness with ability to exercise contingency • Significant multi-national interest – Joint NASA-ESA Mars program will be a proving ground for a large joint effort to return samples – For NASA, sample return is also a necessary step towards humans on Mars Based on the past decade of Mars exploration, NASA is poised to embark on a campaign of missions leading to the return of Martian samples in the 2020s Functional Steps Required to Return a Scientifically Selected Sample to Earth
Launch from Select Acquire/ Earth/Land Samples Cache on Mars Samples Sample Canister On Mars Surface
Launch Retrieve/ Package Samples to Samples on Mars Mars Orbit Orbiting Sample (OS) in Mars Orbit
Capture and Return to Land on Isolate Sample Earth Earth Container Orbiting Sample (OS) On Earth
Retrieve/Quarantine and Assess Sample Preserve Samples on Earth Hazards Science
Sample Science Currently-Concieved Multi-Element MSR Campaign Approach
"For Planning and Discussion Purposes Only" Cost Assessment for Multi-element Mars Sample Return Campaign Current Cost Estimate Bases
• Three sets of costs estimates developed in constant $FY15, and all include: – Mission and flight system development and ATLO (including technology) – Launch vehicles – Mission and ground operations
• First set: Derived from JPL’s Team X – Science team costs are included for MAX-C – Science costs for future elements to be determined with community input
• Second set : Derived from analogies with recently implemented missions in the program, by Mars Program Office
• Third set: A 2008 by Aerospace Corp., conducted for NASA Headquarters (updated 10/09)
• Keep in mind that these are only pre-Phase A estimates. – International contributions not taken into account US-Only Multi-element Sample Return Cost Estimates (in $FY15)
MSR Elements Team-X w/ Analogy with Independent Technology Included in 50% A-D & 25% past missions (Aerospace Team X Estimate E Reserves (quantized to 0.5B) Corporation)
MAX-C
~$2.1 B ~$2.0 B $2.1 B ~$120 M
MSR-Orbiter
~$1.3 B ~ $1.5 B ~$1.1 B ~$160 M
MSR-Lander
~$3.0 B ~$2.3 B ~$2.4 B ~$250 M
MRSH
~$0.5 B ~$0.5 B ~$0.3 B ~$35 M
MULTI-ELEMENT MSR TOTALS ~$6.2 B ~$7.0 B ~$5.9 B ~$565 M
"For Planning and Discussion Purposes Only" Notional Schedule for Multi-Element Campaign to Return Samples from Mars
Mission TBD Or Skip NASA-ESA Trace Gas Orbiter
Samples Returned to Earth
ExoMars
"For Planning and Discussion Purposes Only" Mars Sample Return Summary
• Sample return remains the highest priority mission for the Mars Science community – Consistent priority from previous, and current (Mars Panel), Decadal Surveys
• Multi-element approach reduces phasing impacts, and increases scientific and programmatic robustness
• While only pre-Phase A, cost credibility is greatly improved due to experience from missions like MER, MRO, Phoenix and MSL.
• International cooperation is critical for success – NASA and ESA leadership, validated through the budding Joint Mars Exploration Program – World-wide interest demonstrated through IMEWG/iMARS activity in 2007-08 – Could reduce US costs by half or more, and is probably the only viable way to implement this mission
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