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Advances in Political Economy: Institutions, Modelling and Empirical Analysis Advances in Political Economy: Institutions, Modelling and Empirical analysis Norman Scho…eld, Gonzalo Caballero and Daniel Kselman September 28, 2012 1 Contents Contributors Introduction Norman Scho…eld, Gonzalo Caballero and Daniel Kselman Part I: Institutions Transaction Cost Politics in the map of the New Institutionalism by Gonzalo Caballero and Xose Carlos Arias. Political Transitions in Medieval Venice and Ancient Athens: An Analytical Narrative by Leandro de Magalhaes. A Collective-Action Theory of Fiscal-Military State Building by Luz Marina Arias Stable Constitutions in Political Transition by Gerald Pech, and Katja Michalak Quandaries of Gridlock and Leadership in U.S.Electoral politics by Norman Scho…eld and Evan Schnidman. Sub-central Governments and Sovereign Debt crisis in Spain over the Period 2000-2011 by Fernando Toboso Deciding How to Choose the US Healthcare System by Olga Shvetsova and Katri Sieberg Part II: Modelling Challenges to the Standard Euclidean Spatial Model by Jon Eguia A Non-Existence Theorem for Clientelism in Spatial Models by Daniel Kselman Nonseparable Preferences and Issue Packaging in Elections by Dean Lacy and Emerson Niou When will insider candidates avoid a primary challenge? A model of partial revelation of information by Gilles Serra Measuring the Latent Quality of Precedent: Scoring Vertices in a Network by John W. Patty, Elizabeth Maggie Penn, and Keith E. Schnaken- berg 1 Part III Empirical analysis The Politics of Austerity: Modelling British Attitudes Towards Public Spending Cuts: by Harold Clarke, Marianne Stewart, David Sanders,and Paul Whiteley. Modelling Elections with Varying Party Bundles: An Application to the 2004 Canadian Election by Kevin McAlister, Jee Seong Jeon and Norman Scho…eld, A Spatial Model of Elections in Turkey: Tracing Changes in the Party System in the 2000s by Norman Scho…eld and Betul Demirkaya Do Competitive Districts Necessarily Produce Centrist Politicians? by James Adams, Thomas L. Brunell, Bernard Grofman and Samuel Merrill, III. A Heteroscedastic Spatial Model of the Vote: A Model with Appli- cation to the United States by Ernesto Calvo, Timothy Hellwig and Kiyoung Chang. Inferring Ideological Ambiguity from Survey Data, by Arturas Rozenas Biographies 2 Contributors James Adams, Department of Political Science, UC Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA.<[email protected]>. Luz Marina Arias ,CEACS, Juan March Institute, C/Castello 77, Madrid 28006, Spain. <[email protected]> Xose Carlos Arias, Faculty of Economics, Campus As Lagoas-Marcosende, University of Vigo, 36310 Vigo,Spain.<[email protected]> Thomas L. Brunell, Senior Associate Dean of Graduate Education, School of Economic, Political and Policy Science,UT Dallas 800 W. Campbell Road, Richardson, TX 75080, USA Gonzalo Caballero Faculty of Economics, Campus As Lagoas-Marcosende, University of Vigo, 36310 Vigo,Spain.<[email protected]> Ernesto Calvo University of Maryland,Government and Politics, 3144F Tydings Hall, College Park MD 20742 USA.<[email protected]> Kiyoung Chang 9348 Cherry Hill Road #713, College Park MD 20740. USA Harold Clarke,School of Social Science, PO Box 830688, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson. TX 75083-0688,<[email protected]> Leandro De Magalhaes, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, 8 Woodland Road, Bristol BS8 1TN, UK <[email protected]> Betul Demirkaya, Center in Political Economy, Washington University in Saint Louis, 1 Brookings Drive, Saint Louis, MO 63130,USA. <[email protected]> Jon Eguia, Department of Politics, New York University, 19 West 4th street, New York, NY 10012 USA. <[email protected]> Bernard Grofman School of Social Sciences, University of California, SSPB 5215, Irvine, CA 92697-5100, USA.<[email protected]> Timothy Hellwig Department of Political Science,Indiana University,Woodburn Hall 210,1100 E Seventh Street, Bloomington IN 47405-7110. USA. <[email protected]> Jee Seong Jeon, Center in Political Economy, Washington University in Saint Louis, 1 Brookings Drive, Saint Louis,MO 63130, USA. <[email protected] ·u> Dan Kselman Center for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences, Juan March Institute C/Castello 77, 28006 Madrid, Spain. <[email protected]> Dean Lacy Dartmouth College, HB 6108, Hanover, NH 03755, USA. <[email protected]> Kevin McAlister, Center in Political Economy, Washington University in Saint Louis, MO 63130, USA. <[email protected]> Samuel Merrill, III. 3024 43rd Ct. NW., Olympia, WA 98502, USA. <[email protected]> Katja Michalak, Department of Public Management and Governance,Zeppelin University,Am Seemooser Horn 20, 88045 Friedrichshafen,Germany. <[email protected]> 3 Emerson Niou Department of Political Science, Duke University, 503 Perkins Library, Durham, NC 27708-0204. USA. <[email protected]> John W Patty, Center in Political Economy, Washington University in Saint Louis,1 Brookings Drive, Saint Louis, MO 63130, USA. <[email protected]> Gerald Pech, Department of Economics, KIMEP University, Abay 2, 050010 Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan. <[email protected]> Elizabeth Maggie Penn, Center in Political Economy, Washington Uni- versity in Saint Louis, 1 Brookings Drive, Saint Louis, MO 63130, USA <[email protected]> Arturas Rozenas. Department of Political Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0204. USA David Sanders, Department of Government, University of Essex Colch- ester C043SQ, UK.<[email protected]> Keith.Schnakenberg Center in Political Economy, Washington University in Saint Louis, 1 Brookings Drive, Saint Louis, MO 63130, USA. <[email protected]> Evan Schnidman. 11 Vandine Street #2,Cambridge, MA 02141, USA <[email protected]> Norman Scho…eld Weidenbaum Center, Washington University in St. Louis, Seigle Hall, Campus Box 1027, One Brookings Drive,St. Louis, MO 63130-4899 USA. <scho…[email protected]> Gilles Serra Political Science Department, Center for Economics Research and Teaching (CIDE), Lomas de Santa Fe, Mexico City 01210, Mexico. <[email protected]> Olga Shvetsova, Department of Political Science, Binghamton University, P.O. Box 6000, Binghamton, NY 13902, USA. <[email protected]> Katri Sieberg, Department of North American Studies, University of Tam- pere 33104, Tampereen Yliopisto, Finland. <katri.sieberg@uta.…> Marianne Stewart, School of Social Science, PO Box 830688, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson. TX 75083-0688,USA < [email protected]> FernandoToboso Faculty of Economics, Departamento de Economía Apli- cada, Av. Tarongers s/n, University of Valencia, 46022 Valencia, Spain. <[email protected]> Paul Whiteley Department of Government, University of Essex Colchester C043SQ, UK. <[email protected]> . 4 1.1 Introduction Norman Scho…eld, Gonzalo Caballero and Dan Kselman Political Economy is both a growing …eld and a moving target. The con- cept ‘political economy’ remains something of an open signi…er, alternatively used to describe a methodological approach in political analysis, grounded in the application of formal and quantitative methods to the study of politics; or one of any number substantive areas in the contemporary social sciences. In economics, new institutional economics (Willimason 1985, North 1990) has es- tablished the fundamental importance of history- and polity-speci…c governance structures in sustaining economic markets. Comparative research has investi- gated the e¤ect of democratic institutions and processes on economic policy and outcomes, research given perhaps its most comprehensive statement in in Persson and Tabellini (2000) and Drazen (2001), which have constituted the so- called “macroeconomics side”of political economy (Merlo, 2006). Development economists increasingly recognize that, absent sound governance institutions, standard macroeconomic prescriptions for economic growth and stability often fail to bear fruit (Rodrik, 2007). Economists have also recently joined politi- cal scientists in examining the role of economic factors in explaining democratic transitions and the evolution of political regimes (Acemoglu and Robinson 2000, 2006). Dewan and Shepsle (2008) have emphasized that in recent years some of the best theoretical work on the political economy of political institutions and processes has begun surfacing in the political science mainstream, and they consider that this is a result of economists coming more …rmly to the conclusion that modeling governments and politicians is central to their own enterprise. Moving to political science, work on the modernization hypothesis, moti- vated by the consistently high cross-national correlation between democratic consolidation and economic development, has also recognized the role of eco- nomic factors in determining the evolution of political regimes (Moore 1965; O’Donnell 1974; Przeworski et al. 2000). Furthermore, comparative political science in many ways beat economics to the punch in recognizing the role that political institutions play in determining the economic trajectories of developing and still industrializing economies (Haggard and Kaufmann 1990). Economic class structures, and their embodiment in labor unions and professional orga- nizations, have occupied an important place in comparative politics research on the economic institutions of advanced industrial societies ( Hall and Soskice 2001). Studies of voter behavior have identi…ed both the role that conjuntural economic factors play in informing voter choice and the relationship between voters’ professional context and their preferences for
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