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Indonesia Lippo Karawaci Indonesia Initiating Coverage 14 March 2012 BUY Lippo Karawaci Building the healthcare kingdom Share price: Rp690 Target price: Rp900 Focuses on growing healthcare business. Lippo Karawaci (LPKR) is set to emerge as the largest private sector provider of medical services in Indonesia. It is the largest beneficiary of the growing healthcare industry Anthony Yunus which still in its infancy. Industry prospects are very bright, given a rising [email protected] middle class, lack of competition and high barriers to entry. Further, the (021) 2557 1139 company plans to commence development of seven new hospitals across the country: three in Java, two in Sumatera and two in eastern Indonesia. As such, by the end of 2013, LPKR plans to have 20 hospitals in operation. Boosting residential and urban development. LPKR has around 1,500ha land for township projects in Greater Jakarta, which can last for the next 20 years. It is also one of the largest super block developers, with two big projects of 26ha each in Jakarta. Currently, 49% of its revenue comes Stock Information from residential and urban development. The company expects residential Description: estate development to account for a greater part of its overall sales mix in Ticker: LPKR.IJ 2012. Shares Issued (m): 23,078 Market Cap (US$ m): 1,735 Aggressively expanding retail business. LPKR currently manages 25 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover(US$ m): 2.9 malls, and plans to grow its leased-mall assets by an additional 15 malls, JCI Index: 4009 Free float (%): 82.1 construction of which are in the pipeline. LPKR will sell the malls to LMIR (Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail) Trust once operations are stabilised, and Major Shareholders: % retain the management of the malls. The focus will be on building Pacific Asia Holding Ltd 17.9 community malls in townships, leveraging on the rising middle class. The total estimated construction cost is about US$500m for all 15 malls. Currently, the retail malls contribution to LPKR’s total revenue is only 3.6%. Eye-catching valuation. The stock trades at 1.8x PBV, 22% below the Key Indicators 2.3x industry average. We estimate the company’s total value at ROE – annualised (%) 8.1 Rp41,863b, or Rp1,814/share. After discounting the Rp1,814/share by Net debt (Rp b): 670 NTA/shr (Rp): 738.1 50%, we derive our target price of Rp900, representing potential upside of Interest cover (x): 56.6 30%. We consider Kemang Village and Lippo Cikarang as the major contributors to 2012 marketing sales. Risks to our forecast: rising interest Historical Chart rates, rising construction costs, oversupply of shopping malls and project delays. Initiate with BUY. (Rp) (Million shares) 900 Volume (mil. shares) Close 250.0 850 Lippo Karawaci– Summary Earnings Table 800 200.0 FYE Dec 31 (Rpb) FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F 750 Revenue 2,565 3,125 4,136 5,703 6,187 700 150.0 EBITDA 603 854 1,050 1,417 1,551 650 600 100.0 Recurring Net Profit 388 525 695 952 1,036 550 Recurring Basic EPS (Rp) 22 30 30 41 45 500 50.0 EPS growth (%) 4.6 35.1 -0.7 37.1 8.8 450 400 0.0 DPS (Rp) 0 2 7 9 12 11-Mar-11 28-Apr-11 16-Jun-11 3-Aug-11 27-Sep-11 11-Nov-11 29-Dec-11 15-Feb-12 PER (x) 30.8 22.8 22.9 16.7 15.4 Performance: EV/EBITDA (x) 28.6 18.3 15.8 11.9 11.3 52-week High/Low Rp850/Rp550 Div Yield (%) 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.7 P/BV(x) 3.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Absolute (%) -1.4 6.2 -5.5 21.1 4.5 Net Gearing (%) 27.6 -3.7 8.1 10.4 16.3 Relative (%) -2.6 -0.4 -8.9 7.9 -0.7 ROE (%) 7.9 6.8 8.4 10.5 10.6 ROA (%) 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.8 4.7 Consensus Net Profit (Rpb) 395 495 649 759 859 Source: Kim Eng SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Lippo Karawaci Company background Lippo Karawaci (LPKR) started its first township development in 1993 in Tangerang and Cikarang. The company’s IPO took place in June 1996. In 1997, the company started its township project in Makassar. LPKR conducted its first rights issue in Jan1998, raising Rp303bn. In the mid- 90s, the company started its hospital business. The company launched its first retail strata-titled project in Sep2002. In January 2005, LPKR conducted its second rights issue, raising Rp926bn. LPKR now focuses on six main business units: urban developments, large scale integrated developments, retail malls, health care, hospitality, and property & portfolio management. LPKR has two listed subsidiaries: Lippo Cikarang, of which LPKR owns 51.6%, and Gowa Makassar Tourism Development, of which LPKR owns 50.3%. These two are urban developments in Cikarang and Makassar, respectively. These subsidiaries were listed on the IDX in July 1997, and Dec 2000, respectively. Focuses on growing healthcare business Aggressive commencement. LPKR is one of the most successful private players in Indonesia’s healthcare industry. It currently manages seven hospitals which contributed around 20% to group earnings, and plans to commence development of seven new hospitals across the country: three in Java, two in Sumatera and two in eastern Indonesia. As such, by the end of 2013, Lippo Karawaci plans to have 20 hospitals in operation. A golden opportunity in the healthcare business. LPKR’s hospital is the only Joint Commission International (JCI) accredited hospital in the country. The company is in a sweet spot given that Indonesia’s healthcare industry is still in its infancy, with a rising middle class, lack of significant competition coupled with high barriers to entry. LPKR will employ an asset-light strategy in which it will recycle capital through asset divestment, selling the hospitals to FIRST REIT (FREIT) once they are stabilised. Revenue distribution. LPKR currently derives 30% of its revenue from the healthcare business. As a property company, most of its revenue (49%) still comes from residential and urban development, with the remainder from hotels, malls and property & portfolio management. Hence, recurring income is approximately 50% of total revenue, and should enable the company to mitigate the volatility of property cycle. 14 March 2012 Page 2 of 16 Lippo Karawaci Revenue & Net Profit Growth Recurring & Non-Recurring 6,000 952 1,000 120% 900 5,000 800 100% 695 700 4,000 80% 49% 46% 44% 525 600 28% 3,000 5,703 500 60% 371 388 4,136 353 400 2,000 40% 3,125 300 2,553 2,565 52% 54% 56% 2,091 200 51% 1,000 20% 100 0 0 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F Revenue Net Profit Non-Recurring Recurring Source: Company, Kim Eng Source: Company Revenue Breakdown (As of FY11) EBITDA Breakdown (As of FY11) Asset Asset Management, Management, 11% 19% Residential & Commercial, Residential & Urban 10% Urban Development, Development, 47% Commercial, 15% Hospitals , 30% 49% Hospitals , 19% Source: Company, Kim Eng Source: Company, Kim Eng Robust healthcare growth. In the past four years, LPKR’s healthcare revenue and profit have grown at a CAGR of 19% and 17%, respectively, a higher growth rate than the whole business. (LPKR’s revenue and profit both grew at a CAGR 14% over the same period). In this time, revenue from In-patients has increased at a CAGR of 16%, while revenue from Out-patients has increased by 20%, in line with more comprehensive medical services provided. The number of patients has grown at a modest rate of 3% pa in the past three years. In addition, bed occupancy rate has increased to average 71% in FY11 from 65% in FY07. Revenue Breakdown of Healthcare Business 1,200 1,000 800 429 370 600 291 233 212 400 607 452 526 200 362 395 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Revenue from In-Patient Revenue from Out-Patient Source: Company 14 March 2012 Page 3 of 16 Lippo Karawaci The asset-light cycle. LPKR currently operates seven hospitals under the Siloam-brand. Total beds for the seven hospitals currently number 1,275. The target market for these hospitals is the middle- to upper- middle-income segment. Five of the hospitals have been sold to FREIT under a sale and leaseback agreement. The assets sold were Siloam Lippo Village in West Jakarta, Siloam Kebon Jeruk, Siloam Surabaya and Siloam Cikarang, and MRCCC Siloam Semanggi. To continue the operations, FREIT leased the hospitals back to LPKR on the basis of a long-term lease of 15 years, with a renewal option for an additional similar term exercisable by LPKR. The gain on the sale of the entities is amortised over the lease period. Striving to increase healthcare margins. Like most hospitals, a fair amount of revenue comes from medical services, the sale of medicines and equipment usage, while costs are mostly related to salaries and allowances and the purchase of medicine. The hospitals were generating a stable gross profit margin of 25% on average throughout the years, with EBIT margins of 14%. Larger regional peers are generating an average EBIT margin of 16%. LPKR will strive to gradually increase its margins to match the best hospitals in the region such as Raffles Medical’s 21% EBIT margin. We expect the EBIT margin to reach 20-25% in the next five years, given LPKR plans to generate an automatic prescription programme in each hospitals, which will erase the possibility that the customer purchases the medicine outside the hospital.
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