Perception of China Among V4 Political Elites
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Perception of China among V4 Political Elites Matej Šimalčík | Alžběta Bajerová | Ivana Karásková Tamás Matura | Agnieszka Ostrowska | Bruno Surdel Content Content ................................................................................................... 1 Summary ................................................................................................ 2 1 Introduction ........................................................................................ 4 2 Slovakia: Adoration and ambivalence .................................................. 7 2.1 No clear benefits in sight .................................................................... 9 2.2 Human rights take precedence over economic issues? ................11 2.3 Pragmatism takes center stage .......................................................16 3 Czechia: Between Economic Opportunity and Identity Threat ............ 19 3.1 Czech Parliament’s China approach from 2018 onwards..............21 3.2 China fatigue among Czech politicians ...........................................23 3.3 Pragmatism towards China prevails ................................................27 4 Hungary: Sharing common values? ................................................... 29 4.1 Economic benefits trump security considerations .........................33 4.2 Human rights on the back burner .....................................................34 4.3 Ideologic divide ..................................................................................36 5 Poland: China outweighed by relations with the USA ......................... 38 5.1 Swinging perception of China ...........................................................39 5.2 Opportunism rampant across the political mainstream ................40 5.3 Differing views between the left and right-wing parties .................44 References ........................................................................................... 51 Spreading knowledge about Asia 1 Summary ▪ For much of the 1990s and early 2000s, China has not been in the focus of the V4 countries. This began to change in light of the 2009 financial crisis. Further impetus for the V4 countries to engage with China came with the establishment of the China-CEEC Cooperation platform (i.e. 17+1) and Belt and Road Initiative. ▪ In Slovakia, China is only rarely a topic of domestic political discourse. Despite the overall Slovak policy towards China, as well as the general perception of China among most parties being pragmatist in nature, every time China became a major political issue was related to human rights problems in China, and what Slovakia’s response to them should. ▪ There is a strong divide between the government and opposition parties in Slovakia. The government parties tend to see China in purely economic terms. On the opposition’s side, most politicians also view China pragmatically and recognize the need to cooperate in many areas, they are also wary of security implications as well as China’s human rights abuses. On the extreme parts of the political spectrum (both left and right), there is a sense of ideological support for China and its current political regime. ▪ The Czech parliamentary parties have displayed internally varying views on China till Beijing’s engagement with the CEE region started in 2013. It was not until then, that the parties formed their more clear- cut positions alongside the pro- or anti-China divide. They did so not due to their ideology leaning, but based on their position as government or opposition parties; the government pursued the promised benefits of political and economic cooperation with China, while the opposition sought to criticize this endeavor as a mean of discrediting its political opponents. ▪ Due to the Czech Republic’s tradition of value-oriented foreign policy and negative Czech experience with China’s engagement so far, the overall Czech approach towards China is likely to remain critical, especially in comparison to other Central European states. Spreading knowledge about Asia 2 ▪ The main division line in Hungary is not along leftism and rightism or other political values, but it runs between the governing and opposition parties. ▪ When it comes to economic considerations the division line between Fidesz and opposition parties is less well articulated, as all parties regard China as an important business partner. Opposition parties, however, call for more caution and transparency in bilateral economic relations and are concerned about the domestic and international political costs of the cooperation ▪ Polish government is balancing between eagerness to attract Chinese investment on the one hand, and the strategic friendship with the US on the other. ▪ Significant parts of Polish elites on both left and right have wanted Poland to become a leader of Chinese-born initiatives. Spreading knowledge about Asia 3 1 Introduction Establishment of the China-CEEC Cooperation (also known as 17+1) 1 platform in 2012 and Belt and Road Initiative a year later in 2013 has resulted in a renewed interest in China within the political circles in the Visegrad region and elsewhere. This has sparked a continent-wide debate about China’s inroads in the EU and the rest of Europe. Increasing Chinese involvement in Central and Eastern Europe has resulted in China’s deploring for dividing Europe and fostering its trojan horses which can act as vehicles of Chinese influence in the EU. Indeed, there were many cases when individual Visegrad countries acted in a manner that is consistent with Chinese interests, be it deliberately or due to a lack of understating of current China and its foreign policy. Notable cases included Slovak Prime Minister Pellegrini echoing Chinese narratives on the China-CEEC Cooperation or spreading of pro-Chinese messages on the 2019 Hong Kong protests by some parliamentarians. In the Czech Republic, President Zeman has been a steadfast proponent of the country’s shift towards cooperation with China and labeling the relations as “an unsinkable aircraft carrier of Chinese investment expansion.” Hungary has on occasion acted as a Chinese proxy in protecting Chinese interests in the South China Sea. Such actions on part of V4 countries are certainly troubling. However, basing analyses of the region’s involvement with China mostly on these cases, while treating the countries as unitary actors may lead to missing crucial points regarding the main actor’s motivations and interests vis-à-vis China, as well as possibilities of political change. This publication attempts to look within the “black box” of the V4 states and provide an overview of how different politicians and political parties perceive China. This will help to shed more light on what factors influence China-related policymaking in the V4 regions, and to help predict future policy change (or stagnation) based on shifts in popular support to individual parties. 1 The two names are used interchangeably in this publication; an older designation “16+1” may be used on occasion when referring to the period prior to the inclusion of Greece in 2019. Spreading knowledge about Asia 4 To understand how political elites in the V4 perceive China as such as well as its different activities, the four think-tanks participating on this paper – Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS), Association for International Affairs (AMO), Central and Eastern European Center of Asian Studies (CEECAS) and Center for International Relations (OSW) – conducted an in-depth qualitative study of what views politicians belonging to the main parties in each country hold about China as such, its position in the world, the state of human rights in the country as well as about the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-CEEC Cooperation platform (known as 17+1). To get the richest data possible, we relied on several sources of data. The data collection strategies were adjusted to suit the situation in the individual target countries as the accessibility of the political representation varies across the countries and political parties significantly. Interestingly, in all the countries the representatives of the government parties tended to be less accessible and responsive compared to the members of opposition parties. As for the particular data sources, we conducted interviews with political parties representatives and other stakeholders that can offer insight into the subject matter (e.g. journalists and diplomats), analyzed their media statements and parliamentary discourse, sent out questionnaires (in case of Czech Republic). This broad scale of data sources allowed us to collect a wide range of information about how political parties in V4 perceive China. Based on this date we performed a qualitative content analysis with the aim to uncover if politicians tend to see China as a threat or opportunity and whether these views are of pragmatic or ideological origin. The chapter on Slovakia maps the views of a wide range of parties including long-established and new parties, as well as mainstream and extremist. We analyzed the views of politicians from SMER-SD, Slovak National Party (SNS), Most-Híd, Za ľudí, Progressive Slovakia, SPOLU-Civic Democracy, Christian Democrats (KDH), and People’s Party Our Slovakia (ĽSNS). As for the Czech Republic, the chapter focuses on the Civic Democrats (ODS), ANO 2011, Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), Communist Party Spreading knowledge about Asia 5 of Czechia and Moravia (KSČM), Pirate Party, TOP09, Christian Democratic Union – the