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SEPTA Fare Sensitivity Analysis Using DVRPC's Regional Travel

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SEPTA Fare Sensitivity Analysis Using DVRPC's Regional Travel SEPTA Fare Sensitivity Analysis Using DVRPC’s Regional Travel Forecasting Model SEPTEMBER 2014 The Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission is dedicated to uniting the region’s elected officials, planning professionals, and the public with a common vision of making a great region even greater. Shaping the way we live, work, and play, DVRPC builds consensus on improving transportation, promoting smart growth, protecting the environment, and enhancing the economy. We serve a diverse region of nine counties: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia in Pennsylvania; and Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Mercer in New Jersey. DVRPC is the federally designated Metropolitan Planning Organization for the Greater Philadelphia Region — leading the way to a better future. The symbol in our logo is adapted from the official DVRPC seal and is designed as a stylized image of the Delaware Valley. The outer ring symbolizes the region as a whole while the diagonal bar signifies the Delaware River. The two adjoining crescents represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the State of New Jersey. DVRPC is funded by a variety of funding sources including federal grants from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and Federal Transit Administration (FTA), the Pennsylvania and New Jersey departments of transportation, as well as by DVRPC’s state and local member governments. The authors, however, are solely responsible for the findings and conclusions herein, which may not represent the official views or policies of the funding agencies. The Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) fully complies with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Civil Rights Restoration Act of 1987, Executive Order 12898 on Environmental Justice, and related nondiscrimination statutes and regulations in all programs and activities. DVRPC’s website, www.dvrpc.org, may be translated into multiple languages. Publications and other public documents can be made available in alternative languages and formats, if requested. DVRPC public meetings are always held in ADA-accessible facilities and in transit-accessible locations when possible. Auxiliary services can be provided to individuals who submit a request at least seven days prior to a meeting. Requests made within seven days will be accommodated to the greatest extent possible. Any person who believes they have been aggrieved by an unlawful discriminatory practice by DVRPC under Title VI has a right to file a formal complaint. Any such complaint may be in writing and filed with DVRPC’s Title VI Compliance Manager and / or the appropriate state or federal agency within 180 days of the alleged discriminatory occurrence. For more information on DVRPC’s Title VI program, or to obtain a Title VI Complaint Form, please call (215) 238-2871 or email [email protected]. Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 3 Background .................................................................................................................................................. 3 CHAPTER 2: Literature Review ....................................................................................................................... 5 Transit Fares ................................................................................................................................................ 5 Population, Employment, and Transit Service ......................................................................................... 7 Gas Prices .................................................................................................................................................... 8 References ................................................................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER 3: Data and Assumptions ............................................................................................................ 11 SEPTA Fares and Fare Policy .................................................................................................................. 11 Gas Prices .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Employment ............................................................................................................................................... 13 Population .................................................................................................................................................. 15 SEPTA Service Levels ............................................................................................................................... 16 SEPTA Ridership ....................................................................................................................................... 16 CHAPTER 4: Fare Modeling in TIM 2.1 ......................................................................................................... 19 Transit Network .......................................................................................................................................... 19 Fare Zones .................................................................................................................................................. 20 Fare Systems and Ticket Types ............................................................................................................... 21 Average Fares ............................................................................................................................................ 23 Base Year (2010) Model Validation .......................................................................................................... 28 CHAPTER 5: Scenarios Analyzed ................................................................................................................. 31 Scenario 1: Backcast and Validation—July 2010 Fare Change ........................................................... 31 Scenario 2: Forecast and Validation—July 2013 Fare Change ............................................................ 33 Scenario 3: Direct Elasticity Test—Across-the-Board Fare Increase ................................................. 35 Scenario 4: Cross Elasticity Tests .......................................................................................................... 36 Scenario 5: Forecast—Impact of New Payment Technology (NPT) .................................................... 37 CHAPTER 6: Conclusions and Recommendations .................................................................................... 41 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................... 41 i Recommendations .................................................................................................................................... 41 Figures • Figure 1: SEPTA Fare Price History (2000–2014) ............................................................................... 12 • Figure 2: Retail Gas Price Change—Central Atlantic Region (2000–2014) ........................................ 13 • Figure 3: Percentage Annual Change in Employment (2000–2013) ................................................... 14 • Figure 4: Unemployment Rate Change—Philadelphia–Camden–Wilmington MSA (2000–2014) ...... 14 • Figure 5: Census Population (2000–2013) .......................................................................................... 15 • Figure 6: Total SEPTA Ridership (FY 2000–FY 2013) ........................................................................ 17 • Figure 7: TIM 2.1 Transit Network ....................................................................................................... 19 • Figure 8: Fare Zones Configuration ..................................................................................................... 20 • Figure 9: Fare Systems Configuration ................................................................................................. 21 • Figure 10: Ticket Type: From–To Zone-Based Fare Structure—Regional Rail ................................... 22 • Figure 11: Ticket Type: Zone-Based Fare Structure—City Bus .......................................................... 22 • Figure 12: SEPTA City Transit Division Fare Mix (FY 2009–FY 2013) ............................................... 24 • Figure 13: Transfer Fare Discount Inputs in VISUM ............................................................................ 27 • Figure 14: Ridership Change with Across-the-Board Fare Increase ................................................... 35 Tables • Table 1: Bus and Heavy Rail Transit (HRT) Fare Elasticities ................................................................ 5 • Table 2: Historical Fare Change and Point Elasticity—New York City .................................................. 6 • Table 3: Bus Service Fare Elasticity Estimates ...................................................................................... 6 • Table 4: Direct and Cross-Share Elasticities between Train and Bus ..................................................
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