CBOS JUNE 2001

ISSN 1233 - 7250 HOW FAST TO THE EUROPEAN UNION? IN THIS ISSUE: The support for Poland's Ø HOW FAST integration with the European IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD NOW ON POLAND'S TO THE EUROPEAN Union has been stable for about ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION, WOULD YOU VOTE: UNION? two years. Over half of the respondents would opt for 100% integration if a referendum were Ø BEFORE THE 80% PARLIAMENTARY held on that issue. In June, 54% of the respondents supported Poland's ELECTIONS 60% access to the EU, 29% were against and the remaining 17% had no Ø THE ATTITUDE 40% OF POLISH opinion. It should be stressed that a CATHOLICS significant proportion of those who 20% TO FOLLOWERS would vote against Poland's membership in the EU now do not 0% OF OTHER VI V V III IV VIII V VIII XII V XI II V IX III V VI RELIGIONS exclude access at a later date. 1994 1995 1996 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 The proportion of the Poles for Poland’s access to the European Union against Poland’s access to the European Union who would be rather against Difficult to say Ø THE SITUATION Poland entering the European OF POLAND ON THE Union as soon as possible has decreased a little in the last quarter. Although still most INTERNATIONAL respondents (57%) believe that Poland should first modernise its economy and then enter the SCENE EU, this percentage is also slightly PRIORITIES CONCERNING POLISH ACCESSION TO THE EU lower now than three months ago. The number of those uncertain has Ø THE RELATIONS 70% increased. That may be a result of WITH GERMANY 60% current complications in the AND THE UKRAINE 50% negotiations with the EU. 40% The respondents seem to believe 30% that an immediate access to the

20% Union would not be the best solution for Poland. One in ten respondents PUBLIC OPINION 10% (10%) believe that it would be the RESEARCH CENTER 0% - CBOS - IV1997 VIII1997 XII1998 V1999 XI1999 V2000 XI2000 III2001 VI2001 best for Poland to join the EU before Poland should repair, modernise its economy first and only then 2003. 18% opt for the year 2003, i.e. attempt at EU membership. 4a ¯urawia Poland should try to join the European Union as soon as possible, the date preferred by the because the EU membership will accelerate the repair and 00-503 Warszawa modernisation of the Polish economy. government. Less than one-fifth of POLAND Difficult to say the respondents (18%) believe that we should not join the EU at all. Ph: (48 22) 629 35 69 Thus, the percentage of those who believe (48 22) 628 37 04 that Poland should never join the EU is IN YOUR OPINION, WHICH DATE OF ACCESS (48 22) 693 58 94 much smuller than the percentage of those TO THE EUROPEAN UNION WOULD BE who would vote against, if it the THE BEST FOR POLAND? Fax:(48 22) 629 40 89 referendum is held nowadays. Only 8% of Poles believe that they before 2003 10% have sufficient knowledge about E-mail: [email protected] integration with the EU, a little more than in 2003 18% one-third (36%) believe that their http://www.cbos.pl knowledge is average and over half (52%) in 2004 11%

of the Poles feel that they do not have in 2005 or later 23% © COPYRIGHT BY CBOS 2001 sufficient information on that subject. Poland should not join the EU 18% ALL SOURCES MUST BE CREDITED More information on this subject can be found in the WHEN ANY PART OF THIS PUBLICATION IS REPRODUCED CBOS report "The attitude to integration with the Difficult to say 19% European Union", June 2001. 2 06/2001

BEFORE THE IF YOU COULD VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATES PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS OF ANOTHER PARTY AS WELL, WHICH PARTY WOULD BE YOUR SECOND CHOICE?

17% The elections to the Polish Parliament will be held 14% Civic Platform in September. The alignment of power is very 15% 16% disadvantageous for the right-wing parties, as most 15% opinion polls show an enormous advantage of the Polish Peasants' 15% Party 12% coalition formed by the post-communist Democratic Left 15% 8% Alliance, the left-wing Labour Union and some less Democratic Left Alliance 8% known groups (SLD-UP) over the post-Solidarity or + Labour Union 8% right-wing groups. The current situation resembles the 8% alignment of power before the 2000 presidential election: Law and Justice a sole leader far ahead of the other competitors. If the 8% 9% elections were held in June, almost every other voter 9% (48%) would support the SLD-UP coalition. The declared Freedom Union 10% 8% support for the remaining serious political groups is much 4% lower. Solidarity Election 5% Action of the Right 3% The Solidarity Election Action of the Right 4% (AWSP) has inherited all political burdens and pays the 2% 2% „Self-defence” price for the actions of its predecessor, the AWS, which 2% III 2001 (N=569) 2% IV 2001 (N=660) V 2001 (N=545) has been in power for the last four years. Currently, it has 2% 1% VI 2001 (N=634) the strongest negative image among all political parties. Other 2% The situation of the Freedom Union (UW), which 0% has been part of the ruling coalition over the last years (till 17% 14% None 2000), is catastrophic. Its popularity among voters is so 21% low that it may even not be able to win any seats in the 16% 10% 18% Parliament. Difficult to say 11% 18%

DECLARED SUPPORT FOR THE PARTIES AND COALITIONS TAKING PART IN THE ELECTIONS IN THE GROUP More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS reports OF RESPONDENTS WHO INTEND TO VOTE "Political party preferences in June", "Before the Parliamentary N=634 elections certainty of support, election alternatives, negative electorates", June 2001. Democratic Left Alliance + Labour Union 48%

Civic Platform 13% THE ATTITUDE OF POLISH Solidarity Election CATHOLICS TO FOLLOWERS Action of the Right 10%

Polish Peasants’ Party 7% OF OTHER RELIGIONS

Election Committee 5% „The Law and Justice” A definite majority of Poles are Roman

Freedom Union 2% Catholics. In 1999, in Poland there were approximately 35 million baptised Catholics, 560 thousand Orthodox „Self-defence” 2% Christians, 158 thousand Protestants, 5,200 Muslims and Christian Democracy 1% 1,200 Jews. The Poles believe that reconciliation and of the 3rd Republic lowering of the existing barriers is possible mainly I do not know yet 10% between Catholics and the members of other Christian Churches (the Orthodox and Protestant Churches). The The SLD-UP coalition is not only the most chances of establishing closer relations between popular, but also has the most stable electorate. Its Catholicism and other monotheist religions (Judaism and supporters are the most determined to vote and convinced Islam) are much less frequently acknowledged. that no other party is worth their support. The SLD-UP coalition, despite being an IN YOUR OPINION, IS RECONCILIATION AND LOWERING OF THE EXISTING BARRIERS BETWEEN CATHOLICISM undisputable leader in respect of voting preferences, is AND ... POSSIBLE? relatively seldom mentioned as a party of the "second the Orthodox 60% 30% 10% choice". Church

The Civic Platform (PO) has the best chance of Protestantism 53% 31% 16% taking votes away from other parties and winning more support. The establishment of this political group was Judaism 36% 48% 16% initiated at the beginning of this year by a former Islam 29% 53% 18% presidential candidate Andrzej Olechowski. yes no Difficult to say

PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH CENTER - CBOS - 06/2001 3

The attitudes to other religious in Poland are quite complex. Most respondents would have nothing IN YOUR OPINION, IS THERE NOW ANY DANGER against working with members of other religions or being TO THE INDEPENDENCE OF POLAND OR NOT? their next door neighbours. However, they would be 80% somewhat less happy if people of different faith played important roles in their professional life (e.g. as a superior). A possibility of admitting members of another 60% religion to a respondent's family (a daughter or son-in- law) meets with significant opposition, though only Muslims instigate negative feelings more frequently than 40% positive ones in this respect.

20% HOW WOULD YOU FEEL ABOUT:

0% II V VI VI V V VI VI IV V V an Orthodox Christian being your: 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Colleague 91% 6% 3% Yes, there is No, there is not Difficult to say Next door 92% 6% 2% neighbour Almost two-thirds of the respondents who believe Boss at work 86% 9% 5% that there is a danger to the independence of Poland think Daughter 63% 24% 13% that Russia is the country we should be afraid of (64%), or son-in-law while a little more than one-third (35%) pointed to a protestant being your: Germany as a potential source of threat. Belorussia is Colleague 89% 8% 3% another country mentioned by a substantial group of the Next door respondents (11%). 88% 9% 3% neighbour Boss at work 82% 13% 5% IN YOUR OPINION, WILL RUSSIA TRY TO REGAIN Daughter INFLUENCE IN OUR PART OF EUROPE IN THE NEAREST 58% 30% 12% or son-in-law FUTURE (E.G. IN THE NEXT 5-10 YEARS) OR NOT?

a Jew being your: 80% Colleague 84% 12% 4% Next door 84% 12% 4% neighbour 60% Boss at work 76% 19% 5% Daughter 49% 39% 12% or son-in-law 40%

a Muslim being your:

Colleague 80% 15% 5% 20% Next door 79% 16% 5% neighbour

Boss at work 70% 23% 7% 0% Daughter VI VI V V VI VI II II V 39% 48% 13% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 or son-in-law Yes No Difficult to say I would have no objections I would be against it The opinion that Russia will try to regain Difficult to say domination in Central and Eastern Europe is the most common among young people, especially students. The higher the respondents' education, the more frequently they share this opinion. It seems also to be more popular More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS report among people with right-wing political views. "Social distance or tolerance and openness? Attitudes towards Orthodox Christians, Protestants, Jews and Muslims", June 2001 The respondents who believe that the security of Poland is at risk were also asked which countries, in the event of a real threat, Poland can count on. The most THE SITUATION OF POLAND frequently mentioned countries were the United States ON THE INTERNATIONAL (24%), Germany (12%), France (10%) and the Czech Republic (7%). However, the biggest percentage (27%) SCENE believes that there is no such country and the Poles can only rely on themselves. As compared with the last year, when in the The evaluations of the effectiveness of the Polish respondents' opinion the independence of Poland was foreign policy are worse than last year. However, the endangered less than ever before, the proportion of those critical opinions in this respect resultmainly from the who notice such danger has increased a little. respondents' criticism of the policy of the government as

PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH CENTER - CBOS - 4 06/2001 a whole rather than from their negative opinion on any specific foreign policy problems or actions. Current IN YOUR OPINION, IS RECONCILIATION BETWEEN POLES difficulties in EU accession negotiations may contribute AND GERMANS: to this criticism too. 80%

possible DOES POLAND SUFFICIENTLY PROTECT ITS INTERESTS IN THE RELATIONS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES? 60%

70%

40% 60% impossible 50% 20% 40%

Difficult to say 30% 0% II II V VI VI V V VI VI IV V V 20% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

10% The relations between Poland and the Ukraine

0% are seen in a little more pessimistic light. However, most V V VI VI IV V V 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Poles share the opinion that the reconciliation between the Poles and the Ukrainians is also possible. Rather sufficiently Rather insufficiently Difficult to say

IN YOUR OPINION, IS RECONCILIATION BETWEEN POLES More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS report AND UKRAINIANS: "The situation of Poland on the international scene", July 2001 70%

THE RELATIONS 60% possible WITH GERMANY 50%

AND THE UKRAINE 40% impossible The relations of Poland with both Germany and 30% the Ukraine are particularly affected by the past, especially by the dramatic events of World War II, but 20% also earlier history. The last decade brought a 10% fundamental change in the relations of Poland with Difficult to say Germany and the Ukraine. The percentage of the Poles 0% VI VI IV V V convinced that reconciliation with Germany is possible 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 has been growing at a high pace since 1994. At the moment, over three-quarters of the respondents believe More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS report that such reconciliation is possible. "The relations with neighbours", July 2001.

In addition to the reports referred to above, the following have been published For more information on CBOS services recently and publications please contact: (in Polish): CBOS POLAND 4a, ¯urawia, 00-503 Warsaw u Knowledge of patients' rights Phones: (48 22) 629 35 69, 628 37 04 u Political parties before the elections who cannot be missing from the new Parliament Fax: (48 22) 629 40 89

u Informing patients about the state of their health and the course of treatment E-mail: [email protected] u The self-portrait of pensioners Http://www.cbos.pl u Social moods in June Yearly subscription rate for “Polish u 2000 tax settlements Public Opinion” is 80 USD u Opinions on the attitude to patients in health care establishments

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