EU ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT BY FTI CONSULTING BRUSSELS CRITICAL THINKING AT THE CRITICAL TIME™ Eurosceptics rock the boat but old guard still captains the ship Euroscepticism makes its mark Parliament President. On the other hand the UK has lost its Conservative MEP As predicted, the most significant Martin Callanan, who led the ECR group, 2009 development of the elections is the rise and Graham Watson the leader of the UK of the hardcore eurosceptic parties. On ALDE group. From ALDE, former Belgian the right they command 141 seats, up Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt will remain from 99 seats in the current Parliament. an influential MEP and so will Martin 2014 In addition the constructive eurosceptic Schulz from the S&D. ECR group has won 44 seats (down from 57). With 185 seats, the eurosceptic groups Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage, the on the right will have an important say in leaders of the largest French and British the legislature. Much will depend on the eurosceptic parties, can be expected to question whether the strongest parties, make themselves heard very loudly during the French Front National and the British the Parliament’s Plenary sessions. UKIP, both with 24 seats, will manage to join in a group together with other Political Issues eurosceptic parties. If this is the case The rise of the eurosceptic parties will they will form the third strongest group. inevitably lead to stronger discussions However, the participation of such parties on institutional reforms of the EU, much in the Parliament’s day-to-day work is more aggressively than in the current not certain: in the past, their MEPs have Parliament. usually not attended committee meetings. The projected trade deal with the USA, The new majorities and impact on the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment decision-making Partnership (TTIP), has featured strongly The centre-right EPP and centre-left S&D, in the election campaigns, and has been both pro-European, will remain by far the criticised both from the right and the left. strongest groups. The EPP has now won It will be a challenge to gain sufficient 212 seats (down from 273) and the S&D support from the European Parliament, 186 seats (down from 196). Together they which must ratify a deal negotiated by the have a comfortable majority, and as in the Commission. previous Parliament many legislative files Other issues that are going be of will be carried through by an agreement importance in the short term are financial between these two groups. However, reform, energy, climate change and data if EPP and S&D do not manage to find protection. Only when we see the make- a joint position, the EPP will not have up of the responsible Committees, namely a majority with the other centre-right ECON, ITRE, ENVI and LIBE, will it possible groups such as the liberal ALDE, which to say in which directions these files will go. has now 70 seats (down from 83), and the ECR. Together these three groups Turnout often formed a coalition in the outgoing Parliament, gaining the upper hand in With 43%, the turnout is fractionally higher many legislative files. In the next five years than in 2009, so for the first time since the GUE/NGL Verts/ALE PPE EFD Other the centre-right groups might therefore European Parliament was elected directly be forced to join forces with some of the in 1979 the turnout has not decreased. S&D ALDE ECR NI hardcore eurosceptic groups to gain a However, considering the effort put into majority against the centre-left. The fact the election campaigns, in particular by the that the German and the British liberals, candidates for the Commission Presidency both from the pro-business wing of the and the much stronger media coverage, ALDE group, have lost dramatically will the turnout is certainly a disappointment. 2014 make it more difficult to forge a business- In some countries such as Slovakia (13%) friendly position. The Greens have only lost and Czech Republic (18%) the turnout slightly (down from 57 to 55 seats) and will itself is a blow to the EU. probably maintain their influence on issues Next steps 2019 such as environment, climate and energy. Next Commission President: Juncker’s The new Parliament will assemble in hand strengthened? Brussels for the first time on 2 June, and will spend the rest of the month This election marks the first in which negotiating the formation of its political the Parliament’s groups have put groups – while these will mostly follow the forward their own candidates for same lines as in the outgoing Parliament, European Commission President, based the affiliation of some national delegations on a generous interpretation of the is not certain, and for the new eurosceptic Parliament’s new powers under the EU MEPs in particular much is still up in the treaty. For S&D group candidate Martin air. MEPs will also use this time to decide Schulz, the outcome is a disappointment; who sits on which committees, which is EPP candidate Jean-Claude Juncker important as these are the engine rooms of has come out strengthened in his bid to the Parliament’s legislative work; and they lead the next Commission. However, his will elect the next Parliament President, a majority is not clear enough to make his prestigious position which has traditionally candidacy a certainty. The next days and been split between the two main political weeks will show whether he can gather groups (EPP and S&D) for two-and-a-half enough support from the other political year terms. groups and whether the Member States can agree on him as the next Commission As outlined above, there may be a big President. It is still not clear to what extent political clash over the naming of the new the governments will take account of European Commission President: the the Parliament elections in making this Member States, who have the right of appointment. appointment, will make their choice known in the European Council meeting at the New MEP heavyweights end of June. However, the Parliament must also give its approval, and it may reject the The top German candidate for the CDU Council’s nomination at its vote in mid-July (EPP group), David McAllister, is the if it believes that its own considerations MEP with the strongest backing of any (and perhaps its own top candidate, Jean- candidate and the personal support of Claude Juncker) have been overlooked. Angela Merkel. He will certainly gain a top Watch this space. position in the new Parliament and has a good chance of being elected the new cONTENTS 28 Member States (Please click to view each country) 3 AUSTRIA 2014 2009 EP Party Domestic Party 2009 2014 S&D Sozialdemokratische Partei 5 5 Österreichs G/EFA Die Grüne Alternative 2 3 ALDE NEOS - Das neue Österreich 0 1 EPP Österreichische Volkspartei 6 5 NI Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 2 4 AUSTRIA NI Demokratie, Kontrolle, 3 0 Gerechtigkeit Only winners, no losers? Chancellor Faymann’s Social Democrats SPÖ (S&D group) has won 23.8 % of the votes, which is just fractionally more than in the last European election. There was moderate relief among SPÖ followers, as they managed to close the gap between themselves and their coalition partner ÖVP. As the other governing party, the centre-right ÖVP (EPP group) has lost 2.7% but regardless still regards itself as the winner of the election as it has maintained its number one position. Veteran MEP Othmar Karas, who tops the ÖVP list, has been tipped as a candidate to become Austria’s next European Commissioner. However the real winners of the Austrian election are the FPÖ (non-attached) and the Greens. The nationalistic FPÖ, which openly campaigned against foreigners, has won 20% of the votes, which means an increase of 8%. In many communes they are now the leading force. The Greens have surprisingly increased their share from 9.9% to more than 13% which they celebrated as a huge success. NEOS, Austria’s new liberal party only founded in 2012, has reached 7.9% but are not satisfied with the result, as polls had seen them above 10%. 4 Belgium 2014 2009 EP Group Domestic Party 2009 2014 S&D sp.a / PS 5 4 G/EFA Groen! / Ecolo 3 2 ALDE OpenVLD / MR 5 6 EPP CD&V / Cdh / 5 4 CSP BELGIUM ECR NVA 1 4 NI Vlaams Belang 2 1 Fall of extreme-right; rise of the Flemish nationalists Traditionally, the turnout for European elections in Belgium is high for two reasons: firstly, voting is mandatory in Belgium and secondly, they occur on the same day as the national and regional elections. There was no difference in this statistic this time around, as 91% of the population showed up to cast their vote on 25 May. Inevitably this means that national politics largely influenced the outcome of the European elections in Belgium. The big winners in Belgium are Flemish nationalists (NVA), with a programme of liberal social-economic reforms, as well as the pursuit of an independent Flanders. NVA becomes the country’s largest political party and has increased its presence in the European Parliament from one to four seats. This victory comes at the expense of the ‘traditional’ political parties: the Flemish Christian Democrats have lost one seat, down from three to two, and the Flemish socialists have also lost, down from two to one. The status quo was maintained for the Flemish Liberals of Guy Verhofstadt, who have retained their three seats, as well as for the Flemish Greens, who keep their one.