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Asia Ex-Japan Battery Materials Asia ex Japan Materials 11 September 2020 Asia ex-Japan Battery Materials Tesla’s Battery Day: re-thinking cell chemistries “Million-mile” battery probably ready for mass production, with low/no- cobalt, single crystal cathode, dry electrode and novel electrolytes Update on “next-generation” battery with pre-lithiated anode and novel Dennis Ip, CFA dual-salt electrolyte likely; solid state battery not needed for 400Wh/kg (852) 2848 4068 We like Ecopro BM and Ganfeng Lithium for their well-hedged [email protected] technological risk; avoid CMOC on the low/no-cobalt trend Henny Jung (82) 2 787 9182 [email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 53 Asia ex Japan Materials 11 September 2020 Asia ex-Japan Battery Materials Tesla’s Battery Day: re-thinking cell chemistries “Million-mile” battery probably ready for mass production, with low/no- cobalt, single crystal cathode, dry electrode and novel electrolytes Update on “next-generation” battery with pre-lithiated anode and novel Dennis Ip, CFA dual-salt electrolyte likely; solid state battery not needed for 400Wh/kg (852) 2848 4068 We like Ecopro BM and Ganfeng Lithium for their well-hedged [email protected] Prev. technological risk; avoid CMOC on the low/no-cobalt trend Ecopro BM (247540 KS)Henny Jung Rating (82) Buy2 787 9182 Buy Target [email protected],000 210,000 Upside p 41.9% Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) Rating Buy Buy What's new: We expect Tesla to introduce a number of breakthroughs in KeyTarget stock calls 51.00 46.50 disruptive battery technology during its Battery Day on 22 September. In this Upside p 41.3%New Prev. report, we summarise Tesla’s developments at the cell chemistry level, based EcoproShenzhen BM Capchem (247540 KS)Technology - A (300037 CH) Rating Buy Buy on publicly available patents/research papers, and discuss their potential Target 210,00071.00 210,00071.00 impact on our covered battery material names. Upside p 40.2%41.9% GanfengShanghai Lithium Putailai (1772 New EnergyHK) Tech – A (603659 CH) What's the impact: Commercialisation of a million-mile battery? In April Rating OutperformBuy OutperformBuy 2019, Tesla CEO Elon Musk promised that in a year’s time, Tesla would Target 115.0051.00 115.0046.50 Upside p 19.8%41.3% introduce a battery pack that lasts up to 1m miles. We believe it is likely ShenzhenChina Molybdenum Capchem (3993Technology HK) - A (300037 CH) Tesla and Musk will honour that promise during Tesla’s Battery Day. Our Rating HoldBuy OutperformBuy educated guess is that single-crystal cathode, advanced electrolyte Target 71.002.90 71.003.40 additives and dry battery electrode will be adopted for the prevention of UpsideDownside qp 40.2%2.7% micro-cracking, suppression of voltage hysteresis, and improvement of ShanghaiSource: Putailai Daiwa New forecasts Energy Tech – A (603659 CH) energy intensity, respectively, which in combination would contribute to Rating Outperform Outperform Target 115.00 115.00 better capacity retention and a long cycle life culminating in a battery that Upside p 19.8% can last for 1m miles. On the cost side, we believe dry battery electrode, China Molybdenum (3993 HK) which can help reduce costs by c.20% per cell, will once again play an Rating Hold Outperform important role, together with the introduction of cathode with low-cobalt, Target 2.90 3.40 or no cobalt enabled by core-shell gradient (CSG) coating technology. Downside q 2.7% Battery Day teasers for “next-gen” technologies. Similar to Autonomy Day on 22 April 2019, in which Musk talked not just about a breakthrough in existing automation systems but also the future Tesla “robo-taxi” network facilitated by automation, we believe Musk and his team will once again provide a roadmap for future development during the Battery Day. Among different future pathways, we see pre-lithiation technology in the form of lithium metal/anode-free battery enabled by a novel LiDFOB/LiBF4 dual salt, which Tesla’s leading scientist, Jeff Dahn, credits as “the next- generation” battery that can enable electrified urban aviation, being highlighted. We also see a slight possibility of Tesla touching on the development of high-loaded silicon-carbon anode. The introduction of other cell chemistries, including hybrid battery-capacitor cathode or even solid-state battery, is less likely, in our view. What we recommend: We like companies with hedged technology risks, including Ecopro BM (riding on development of single-crystal cathode and CSG coating) and Ganfeng (riding on elevated per-battery lithium usage). We recommend selective avoidance of China Molybdenum (CMOC) on a potential low/no-cobalt trend. How we differ: We believe we are the first broker to dissect the implications of cell chemistries that Tesla will potentially introduce on Battery Day. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 53 Asia ex-Japan Battery Materials: 11 September 2020 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 EPS (local curr.) FY2 Company Name Stock code SharePrice NewRating Prev. TargetNew price (localPrev. curr.)% chg New FY1Prev. % chg New FY2Prev. % chg CompanyChina Molybdenum Name 3993Stock HK code Price2.98 HoldNew OutperformPrev. New2.90 Prev.3.40 (14.7%)% chg 0.123New 0.123Prev. %0.0% chg 0.139New 0.139Prev. %0.0% chg ChinaEcopro Molybdenum BM 2475403993 HK KS 148,0002.98 HoldBuy OutperformBuy 210,0002.90 210,0003.40 (14.7%)0.0% 2,2310.123 2,2310.123 0.0% 4,3090.139 4,3090.139 0.0% GanfengEcopro BM Lithium 1772247540 HK KS 148,00036.10 Buy Buy 210,00051.00 210,00046.50 9.7%0.0% 0.4442,231 0.4542,231 (2.3%)0.0% 1.2134,309 1.1894,309 2.0%0.0% Ganfeng Lithium - A 0024601772 HK CH 46.8536.10 Buy Buy 65.0051.00 46.50 9.7% 0.444 0.454 (2.3%) 1.213 1.189 2.0% POSCOGanfeng ChemicalLithium - A 003670002460 KSCH 88,10046.85 OutperformBuy Outperform 96,00065.00 96,000 0.0% 0.444796 796 0.0% 1,9221.213 1,922 0.0% Source:ShanghaiPOSCO Bloomberg, Chemical Putailai New Daiwa Energy forecasts Tech –; Anote: prices603659003670 as of close CHKS on 10 88,100September96.00 Outperform 2020 Outperform 115.0096,000 115.0096,000 0.0% 1.556796 1.556796 0.0% 2.5941,922 2.5941,922 0.0% ShenzhenShanghai PutailaiCapchem New Technology Energy Tech - A – A 300037603659 CH 50.6396.00 OutperformBuy OutperformBuy 115.0071.00 115.0071.00 0.0% 1.2681.556 1.2681.556 0.0% 1.6232.594 1.6232.594 0.0% EVTianqiShenzhen battery Lithium Capchem - Amaterials: Technology company- A list002466300037 CH 19.1750.63 OutperformBuy OutperformBuy 22.5071.00 22.5071.00 0.0% (1.227)1.268 (1.227)1.268 0.0%n.a. 0.0611.623 0.0611.623 0.0% Tianqi Lithium - A 002466 CH 19.17 Outperform OutperformMkt cap22.50 Turnover22.50 0.0% (1.227)PER (x) (1.227) n.a. 0.061PBR (x)0.061 0.0% Company BBG code Rating Share price (USDm) (USDm) 2020E 2021E 2022E 2020E 2021E 2022E Cathode Beijing Easpring Material 300073 CH NR 37.83 2,415 71.7 52.4 36.4 29.0 4.90 4.32 3.74 Ningbo Shanshan 600884 CH NR 10.24 2,437 109.9 45.9 30.4 27.6 1.44 1.45 1.27 L&F 066970 KS NR 40,800 964 33.3 179.3 35.8 24.9 5.91 5.15 4.32 Ecopro BM* 247540 KS Buy 148,000 2,620 64.5 66.3 34.3 24.7 7.75 6.39 5.20 Sumitomo Metal Mining 5713 JP Hold 3,543.0 9,715 41.0 20.9 12.7 11.3 0.93 0.89 0.84 Nichias 5393 JP Hold 2,515.0 1,608 3.8 13.7 11.4 10.4 1.25 1.17 1.09 Umicore UMI BB NR 39.28 11,454 28.2 34.4 26.4 22.8 3.51 3.25 3.04 Simple average 58.9 26.7 21.5 3.67 3.23 2.78 Weighted average 38.5 23.4 19.6 2.97 2.67 2.38 Lithium Ganfeng Lithium-H* 1772 HK Buy 36.10 8,416 18.8 70.6 25.9 16.2 4.97 4.44 3.73 Tianqi Lithium* 002466 CH - 19.17 4,140 263.7 n.a. 315.8 78.9 2.63 2.61 2.52 Ganfeng Lithium-A* 002460 CH - 46.85 8,416 222.1 103.8 38.0 23.8 7.30 6.52 5.47 Sichuan Yahua 002497 CH NR 8.86 1,240 49.3 36.5 29.2 22.2 2.29 2.15 2.00 Simple average 70.3 102.2 35.3 4.29 3.93 3.43 Weighted average 68.1 84.7 31.1 5.26 4.76 4.07 Cobalt CMOC-H* 3993 HK Hold 2.98 11,869 17.7 21.3 19.0 18.8 1.35 1.30 1.25 CMOC-A 603993 CH NR 4.01 11,869 158.7 45.1 28.8 25.2 2.04 1.91 1.79 Huayou Cobalt 603799 CH NR 36.49 6,088 271.6 50.6 31.1 22.3 4.78 4.00 3.46 Hanrui Cobalt 300618 CH NR 69.27 3,068 110.6 65.9 34.6 28.9 8.34 6.76 5.19 GEM 002340 CH NR 5.09 3,560 131.8 29.9 20.9 16.6 1.84 1.71 1.51 Simple average 42.6 26.9 22.4 3.67 3.14 2.64 Weighted average 38.5 25.7 22.1 2.78 2.45 2.15 Precursor GEM 002340 CH NR 5.09 3,560 131.8 29.9 20.9 16.6 1.84 1.71 1.51 Huayou Cobalt 603799 CH NR 36.49 6,088 271.6 50.6 31.1 22.3 4.78 4.00 3.46 Hanrui Cobalt 300618 CH NR 69.27 3,068 110.6 65.9 34.6 28.9 8.34 6.76 5.19 Simple average 48.8 28.9 22.6 4.98 4.16 3.39 Weighted average 48.5 29.1 22.3 4.81 4.02 3.33 Anode Putailai* 603659 CH - 96.00 6,108 59.5 61.7 37.0 27.7 5.48 4.97 4.41 Ningbo Shanshan 600884 CH NR 10.24 2,437 109.9 45.9 30.4 27.6 1.44 1.45 1.27 Hunan Zhongke 300035 CH NR 8.60 808 25.5 27.0 18.6 13.9 2.60 2.33 2.04 POSCO Chemical* 003670 KS Outperform 88,100 4,527 61.1 110.6 45.8 35.0 5.20 4.77 4.31 Mitsubishi Chemical 4188 JP Hold 661.0 9,388 30.3 24.4 10.7 8.8 0.80 0.76 0.72 Simple average 53.9 28.5 22.6 3.10 2.86 2.55 Weighted average 53.3 26.8 21.0 3.02 2.77 2.49 Electrolyte Shenzhen Capchem* 300037 CH - 50.63 3,041 55.5 39.9 31.2 22.5 4.42 4.03 3.59 Guangzhou Tinci 002709 CH NR 38.68 3,088 71.8 35.3 32.9 30.0 6.51 5.72 5.24 Ube Industries 4208 JP Hold 1,959.0 1,962 8.1 13.4 9.3 7.2 0.58 0.55 0.52 Mitsubishi Chemical 4188 JP Hold 11,500 9,388 30.3 24.4 10.7 8.8 0.80 0.76 0.72 Central Glass 4044 JP NR 2,201.0 892 1.2 59.3 22.3 19.8 0.56 0.56 0.55 Soulbrain 036830 KS NR 48,200 391 18.3 3.0 2.8 2.5 0.47 0.40 0.35 Foosung 093370 KS NR 11,500 897 41.8 234.7 33.6 22.4 4.94 4.31 3.61 Chunbo* 278280 KS Buy 154,900 1,305 36.6 38.6 28.9 n.a.
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