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Catl (300750 Ch) Nio (Nio Us) Industry Report | July 26, 2021 China EVs (Overweight) Market growth to exceed expectations Yongdai Park [email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Contents [Summary] 3 I. Auto market reported negative growth for three straight years 4 II. NEVs continue to see explosive demand growth 6 III. NEV sales to increase at 39% CAGR over the next five years 14 IV. Key recommendations 26 Global X China EV and Battery ETF (2845/9845 HK) BYD (002594 CH) CATL (300750 CH) NIO (NIO US) 2| China EVs Mirae Asset Securities Research Summary China’s EV market • We expect China’s electric vehicle (EV) market to expand at a CAGR of 39% over the next five years, growth to exceed with sales volume rising from 1.37mn units in 2020 to 7mn in 2025. expectations • China’s car ownership rate remains relatively low, at 17%. Factoring in the country’s economic/income growth prospects, we forecast sales volume to increase at 2% CAGR over the coming decade. • The market share of EVs is likely to increase steadily in line with the government’s long-term goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and the milestones laid out in the latest “Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)”. EV penetration stands at just 10% in China despite surging sales over the past year. • While competition will likely intensify in the EV market, we still see some investment opportunities. • In our view, pure EV players who gained early leadership hold competitive advantages over most legacy automakers. • Pure EV makers Tesla and NIO deserve attention in light of their superior technology, mass production capabilities, and brand value. Among traditional automakers, BYD looks promising given its rapidly increasing EV sales mix. • Other factors to consider are: technological advantages (autonomous driving, battery swapping systems, etc.), vertical integration (across batteries, power control units, motors, etc.), customer base loyalty, lineup diversity, and market positioning (exposure to high-end/luxury segments). • Overall, we prefer upstream players (batteries/components/raw materials) that have secured dominant positions within the value chain to downstream names that are facing growing competition. • Key recommendations: Global X China EV and Battery ETF (2845/9845 HK), BYD (002594 CH), CATL (300750 CH), and NIO (NIO US). 3| China EVs Mirae Asset Securities Research China EVs (Overweight) Auto market reported • In 2020, China’s auto market contracted 2% YoY, with total sales volume coming in at 25.31mn units (vs -13% YoY negative growth for to 77mn globally). • China is the world’s largest consumer of cars with a 33% market share (vs. 21% for Europe and 19% for the US) as three straight years of 2020. • China’s auto sales have decreased YoY over the past three years, due to: 1) an economic decline (China-US trade dispute); 2) tighter emissions regulations (lack of new models in compliance with new rules); and 3) depressed consumption amid the COVID-19 pandemic (Dec. 2020–Mar. 2021) China is the world’s largest auto market China: Auto sales contracted YoY in 2018-20 China US Europe Other (mn) Total sales volume (L) YoY (R) 100% 35 40% 30 30% 80% 25 20% 60% 20 10% 15 40% -3% 0% 10 -2% 20% -10% 31% 31% 30% 29% 33% 5 25% 25% 24% 27% 28% 28% -8% 0% 0 -20% 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: MarkLines, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: MarkLines, Mirae Asset Securities Research 4| China EVs Mirae Asset Securities Research China EVs (Overweight) 2020 auto sales: • In 2020, car sales in China slipped just 2% YoY despite the pandemic. Solid performance • As the spread of the virus slowed, we saw sales volume expansion for 13 straight months (starting in Apr. 2020), led by: 1) robust demand for luxury cars triggered by so-called revenge consumption; and 2) strong sales of NEVs. despite the pandemic • Meanwhile, sales growth swung to negative again in May 2021 due to production disruptions caused by global chip shortages. China: Monthly auto sales volume and growth China: Monthly NEV sales growth Sales volume (L) YoY (R) (mn units) 400% 3.0 100% Total NEV 2.5 300% 50% 2.0 200% 1.5 0% 100% 1.0 -50% 0% 0.5 0.0 -100% -100% 7/19 11/19 3/20 7/20 11/20 3/21 7/19 11/19 3/20 7/20 11/20 3/21 Source: MarkLines, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: MarkLines, Mirae Asset Securities Research 5| China EVs Mirae Asset Securities Research China EVs (Overweight) NEVs continue to see • NEV sales volume has continued to grow MoM since Jul. 2020, surging 187% YoY (-9% MoM) in Apr. 2021, 166% YoY (+5% MoM) in May, and 147% YoY in June (+18% MoM). explosive demand • Growth has been driven by government policies to boost consumption: growth 1) Extension of NEV subsidies through end-2022 (introduced in Apr. 2020) 2) NEV sales promotions in rural areas; subsidies for low/mid-priced NEV models (Jul. 2020) 3) Subsidies for replacing old vehicles with new ones; looser restrictions on new car purchases; expanded license plate issuance in some major cities (Nov. 2020) NEV subsidy scheme extended through end-2022 (Apr. 2020) Subsidy policy revisions in 2020 (CNY10,000) • Boosting NEV sales, which had been falling amid Before After Purpose concerns over subsidy cuts and COVID-19 Electric range 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 Effective • Apr. 23, 2020 (three month grace period until Jul. 22, date 2020) 150≤R∠200 1.500000 Eligibility • EVs costing less than CNY300,000 200≤R∠250 2.400000 BEV 250≤R∠300 3.41.80000 • Subsidies—which were set to expire at end-2020—are phased out over three years (cut by 10%, 20%, and ∠ 30%, respectively) 300≤R 400 4.5 1.8 0 1.62 1.296 0.9072 Details • PHEV subsidies are reduced by 15%, 20%, and 30% over three-year period 400≤R 5 2.5 0 2.25 1.8 1.26 • Subsidies on public transport NEVs (taxis, buses, parcel delivery, etc.) to remain PHEV 50≤R 2 1 0 0.85 0.68 0.476 Source: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Science Source: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, Mirae Asset Securities Research and Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, Mirae Asset Securities Research 6| China EVs Mirae Asset Securities Research China EVs (Overweight) Improving consumer perceptions Higher demand for NEVs Chinese consumers feel overwhelmingly positive about EVs Chinese consumers are highly aware of NEVs US US China UK Norway Japan Germany (California) Next car to 19% 26% 55% 25% 29% 23% 22% be EV To buy EV once price 61% 72% 81% 67% 53% 76% 59% parity is achieved Willing to pay 17% 19% 21% 13% 14% 18% 13% US$10,000 premium Source: AlixPartners EV Consumer Survey 2019, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: McKinsey Profiles of potential NEV buyers in China Chinese consumers’ reasons for purchasing NEV Source: McKinsey Source: McKinsey 7| China EVs Mirae Asset Securities Research China EVs (Overweight) Supply increasing in • Consumption-boosting policies and improving awareness among potential buyers have spurred NEV demand. response to rising • New model releases by traditional automakers as well as pure EV brands have led to an increase in NEV supply. demand • Furthermore, Tesla started to sell Model 3 (2020) and the Model Y (2021) units built at its Giga Shanghai. • As of Jun. 2021, 225 NEV models were available on the market in China (vs. 166 BEV and 59 PHEV models). No. of NEV models available in China (monthly) No. of BEV/PHEV models available in China (monthly) 200 BEV PHEV 250 225 Wuling 166 Hongguang Mini 160 200 & BYD Han (7/20) Model Y 120 150 (1/21) 100 Model 3 80 (1/20) 59 Ora R1 (1/19) 50 40 0 0 1/17 9/17 5/18 1/19 9/19 5/20 1/21 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 1/19 7/19 1/20 7/20 1/21 Source: MarkLines, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: MarkLines, Mirae Asset Securities Research 8| China EVs Mirae Asset Securities Research China EVs (Overweight) NEV penetration is rising • Car shipments decreased in May and June amid global chip shortages. rapidly • However, NEV sales surged 166% YoY (217,000 units) in May and 147% YoY (257,000 units) in June. • In 1H21, 1.2mn NEV units were sold (vs. 370,000 units in 1H20 and 1.37mn in 2020). • NEVs’ penetration is increasing rapidly, from 5% in 2020 to 7% in Jan. 2021 and 13% in June. China: Monthly NEV sales volume China: Monthly NEV penetration trends ('000 units) 2020 2021 300 2020 2021 14% 256.0 250 226.0 12% 217.0 206.0 200 10% 179.0 8% 150 110.0 6% 100 4% 50 2% 0 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: CAAM, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: CAAM, Mirae Asset Securities Research 9| China EVs Mirae Asset Securities Research China EVs (Overweight) Best-selling NEVs in • No. 1: Wuling Hongguang Mini (compact BEV with monthly average sales volume of 30,000) China - Priced at CNY29,000 (around W5mn); 9.2-13.8kWh battery capacity;120-170km range - 2,917mm x 1,493mm x 1,621mm (1,940mm wheelbase) • No.
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