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Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) China Materials 5 May 2020 Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) Target price: HKD29.00 (from HKD26.00) Share price (5 May): HKD25.95 | Up/downside: +11.8% Upgrade on NEV policy and Tesla’s expansion in China Dennis Ip, CFA (852) 2848 4068 Domestic NEV demand supported by policies and Tesla’s expansion [email protected] Strong 2Q20 guidance with 2Q20 net profit up 2.0-3.4x YoY Anna Lu, CFA (852) 2848 4465 Upgrading to Outperform (2) from Hold (3); lifting TP to HKD29 [email protected] What's new: Ganfeng’s share price has risen by only 4% since the start of Forecast revisions (%) April, but we see catalysts emerging, including: 1) supportive NEV policies, Year to 31 Dec 20E 21E 22E and 2) Tesla’s development in China, which will likely support recovery of Revenue change - 8.0 24.7 Net profit change - 11.2 30.7 its share price despite its weak 1Q20 results (see our memo). We upgrade Core EPS (FD) change - 11.2 30.7 it to Outperform (2) with a TP of HKD29 on 3.5x 12-month forward PBR. Source: Daiwa forecasts What's the impact: Supportive NEV policy and Tesla’s expansion. Share price performance We believe the enactment of a series of positive NEV policies (see P.2) will (HKD) (%) reinforce mainland investors’ interest in EV-related names, and we look for 37 295 more NEV policies (which fit “New Infrastructure” theme of Chinese 29 234 Government, also see P.2) to come during Liang-hui. We also see lithium 21 173 13 111 demand in China to be stabilised after the series of encouraging actions 5 50 taken by Tesla (TSLA US): 1) Elon Musk’s meeting with Shanghai May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 Secretary (see shanghai.gov), 2) ASP cut of Model 3 in China (see Ganfeng Li (LHS) Relative to HSI (RHS) Reuters), 3) 33% production ramp-up of Giga Shanghai (see China Daily), and 4) plan for sales of China-made Model Y following doubling of the size 12-month range 9.05-36.20 of Giga Shanghai (see Electrek). With A-H valuation gap widening to 108% Market cap (USDbn) 4.33 (2020 average: 95%), we expect investors to opt for Ganfeng-H as seen by 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 26.48 recovery of Southbound on 29 April to 52.01%, from 51.95% on 24 April. Shares outstanding (m) 1,293 Major shareholder Li Liangbin (20.5%) Ganfeng sees a turnaround in 2Q20. Ganfeng guides for 2Q20 net profit Financial summary (CNY) of CNY132-192m, up 202-342% YoY or 39-102% QoQ (although it still Year to 31 Dec 20E 21E 22E projects recurring net profit to be down 16-43% YoY). Our check confirmed Revenue (m) 5,444 7,426 9,507 the forecast was based on: 1) fair value loss of CNY88m in 1Q20 mainly on Operating profit (m) 844 2,186 3,161 Net profit (m) 567 1,568 2,273 a 39% fall in share price of Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU), and 2) no fair value Core EPS (fully-diluted) 0.439 1.213 1.759 change in 2Q20. We see a likelihood of 2Q20 results hitting the high-end of EPS change (%) 126.0 176.5 45.0 its guidance or seeing further upside as it will likely have a fair value gain in Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (33.6) 18.9 n.a. 2Q20 given: 1) PLS’ share price was at its lowest level since 2016 by end- PER (x) 53.8 19.5 13.4 Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.5 2.2 March, and 2) sharp rebound in AUD/CNY (up 10% since end-March). DPS 0.300 0.354 0.512 PBR (x) 3.3 3.0 2.6 Lithium prices still weak. We keep our 2020E lithium ASP unchanged as EV/EBITDA (x) 27.8 12.4 8.9 ROE (%) 6.3 16.2 20.5 lithium prices went further down in April due to auto plant closures globally, Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts but we see potential upside if there is any operational disruption or delay in capacity growth for deeply-troubled Tianqi (002466 CH) (see ft.com). Meanwhile, we lift our 2021-22E lithium hydroxide output addition for Xinyu Mahong III to 50kt from 25kt given higher demand visibility in China. What we recommend: We upgrade Ganfeng to O/P (2) and lift our TP to HKD29 (from HKD26), based on a new 12-month forward target PBR of 3.5x (from 3.0x). We lift our 2021-22E EPS by 11-31% on our higher output forecast for Xinyu Mahong III. Key risks: worse-than-expected lithium price. How we differ: We are more pessimistic about near-term lithium ASPs. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 5 Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): 5 May 2020 China: government policies related to NEV Ganfeng: capacity addition pipeline Title Analyst Date Project Stake 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E China NEVs: official subsidy extension announced Kelvin Lau 23-Apr-20 Current Capacity (31kt LiOH + 40.5kt Li2CO3) 100.0% 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 Shanghai releases auto stimulus package Kelvin Lau 23-Apr-20 1) Cauchari-Olaroz Project (50kt LiOH) 50.0% 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 “New” infrastructure: charging pole investment on the rise Fiona Liang 14-Apr-20 2) Xinyu Mahong III Project (25kt Li2CO3 + 100.0% 4 4 4 4 More spending on ‘New’ infrastructure Fiona Liang 11-Mar-20 25kt Li2CO3) 3) Sonara Clay Project (17.5kt Li2CO3) 22.5% 1.8 1.8 4) Mariana Brine Project (20kt Li2CO3) 82.8% 2 Total Equity Capacity 13 13 13.4 15 Source: Daiwa Source: Company, Daiwa estimates Note a: LiOH = Lithium Hydroxide; Li2CO3 =Lithium Carbonate, Lithium Metal excluded Note b: All unit in kt LCE assuming 1 LiOH = 0.88 Li2CO3 Note c: Output from 1) and 2) to be incorporated from 2021E, while 3) and 4) unincorporated Lithium product price Ganfeng: A-H share premium and southbound position (USD/t) 25,000 60% 180% 160% 50% 20,000 140% 40% 120% 15,000 100% 30% 10,000 80% 20% 60% 5,000 40% 10% 0 20% 0% 0% Nov-19 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-20 Nov-21 Nov-22 May-20 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-21 May-22 Jul-19 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Jan-19 Jun-19 Jan-20 Mar-19 Mar-20 Feb-20 Lithium Carbonate spot (LHS) Lithium Hydroxide spot Feb-19 Aug-19 Nov-18 Dec-18 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 May-19 Lithium Carbonate forecast (LHS) Lithium Hydroxide forecast Southbound position (LHS) A-share premium (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Source: Company, Daiwa estimates PLS: share price vs. AUD/CNY exchange rate Number of auto plants suspended 0.9 5 70 Global Lithium prices to be suppressed by overseas 0.8 4.8 60 0.7 demand destruction 4.6 50 0.6 Appreciation of AUD 40 0.5 since end-March 4.4 0.4 4.2 30 0.3 4 20 0.2 10 0.1 Lowest since 2016 3.8 0.0 3.6 0 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jan Feb March Share price (AUD) AUD/CNY (RHS) China U.S. Japan Korea Germany Italy France U.K. Others Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa Ganfeng: 1Q20 results summary CNYm 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 YoY Turnover 1,050 1,282 1,262 1,410 1,330 1,493 1,388 1,036 1,079 -19% Cost of sales (566) (740) (905) (986) (1,046) (1,068) (1,090) (805) (869) -17% Gross Profit 484 542 357 424 284 425 298 231 210 -26% Selling and distribution expenses (8) (23) (18) (32) (24) (28) (28) 17 (19) -23% Admin expenses (80) (88) (27) (103) (34) (151) (33) (151) (23) -31% Other expenses (18) (6) (23) (31) (24) (24) (27) (492) (27) 12% EBIT 377 424 288 258 202 221 210 (394) 142 -30% Finance costs (17) (14) (18) (32) (45) 6 (40) 1 (66) 49% JV/Asso (25) 35 71 42 42 51 (13) 73 9 -79% Non-operating income 32 2 (31) 19 9 (8) 44 (366) 20 130% PBT 305 533 290 119 299 87 38 40 23 -92% Taxation (64) (55) (43) (1) (47) (45) (6) (24) (18) -62% PAT 241 479 247 118 252 43 33 16 6 -98% Profit attributable to - Shareholders 241 478 247 118 252 43 32 12 8 -97% - Minority interests (0) (0) 0 1 (0) (0) (1) (4) (2) 1982% One-off items (20) 64 (35) (181) 102 (188) (172) 331 (88) -186% Net income ex- one-off items 261 414 282 299 150 231 204 (319) 95 -36% Basic EPS 0.21 0.28 0.22 0.06 0.22 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01 -97% Diluted EPS 0.21 0.28 0.22 0.07 0.22 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01 -97% Basic EPS (Recurring) 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.13 0.13 0.16 0.19 (0.81) 0.07 -43% Source: Company, Daiwa 2 Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): 5 May 2020 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E Lithium carbonate (CNY/ ton) 39,955 81,029 122,209 112,953 76,525 61,220 63,363 65,264 Lithium hydroxide (CNY/ ton) 50,468 96,698 128,826 129,227 87,551 70,041 72,492 74,667 Lithium metal price (CNY/ ton) 343,923 438,241 591,273 639,002 543,152 515,994 490,194 514,704 Lithium compound volume (ton) 13,765 18,253 25,215 31,061 46,991 63,400 94,882 125,730 Lithium metal volume (ton) 1,226 1,126 1,384 1,519 1,435 1,600 1,600 1,600 Profit and loss (CNYm) Year to 31 Dec 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E Lithium Compound 646 1,735 2,880 3,182 3,218 3,527 5,524 7,565 Lithium Metal 422 493 818 971 934 826 784 824 Other Revenue 277 405 473 737 1,095 1,092 1,118 1,118 Total Revenue 1,344 2,633 4,171 4,890 5,246 5,444 7,426 9,507 Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COGS (1,044) (1,628) (2,496) (3,136) (4,009) (4,269) (4,810) (5,832) SG&A (117) (160) (246) (443) (432) (332) (430) (513) Other op.expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating profit 183 845 1,429 1,311 806 844 2,186 3,161 Net-interest inc./(exp.) (11) (20) (55) (56) (77) (163) (225) (276) Assoc/forex/extraord./others 70 364 993 796 (260) 33 5 (37) Pre-tax profit 243 1,189 2,367 2,051 468 714 1,965 2,848 Tax (25) (71) (272) (163) (121) (143) (393) (570) Min.
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