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Widebody Aircraft 20 July 2017 Global Equity Research Aerospace & Defense Widebody Aircraft Review The Credit Suisse Connections Series leverages our exceptional breadth of macro and micro research to deliver CONNECTIONS SERIES incisive cross-sector and cross-border thematic insights for our clients. Wide bodies, slim orders Research Analysts Olivier Brochet ■ Deep dive into widebodies: In this Connections Series report, our 44 20 7888 8508 European and US teams take an in-depth look at the various aspects of the [email protected] widebody market – including order book, fleet, regional and programme Robert Spingarn 212 538 1895 splits – for both aircraft and engines. Some investors have cited concerns [email protected] about the prospects for widebody aircraft due to a lack of new orders, Julian Mitchell deferrals and a thin backlog. However, we think strength in Asia should 212 325 6668 offset most of the downside from the Middle East. [email protected] Jose Caiado ■ A resilient sector despite Middle East risks: We see risks concentrated 212 325 6771 in the Middle East, specifically on the larger widebodies (777, A350-1000 [email protected] and A380). Asia (32% of the global backlog) appears resilient, particularly Christopher Leonard in China. We see some signs of softness in Europe and North America. We 44 20 7888 3012 [email protected] believe persistent strength in passenger traffic combined with these Neil Glynn, CFA regional trends provides support for the widebody market overall. 44 20 7883 6929 ■ A broadly sound and stable position for Airbus (Outperform, TP [email protected] €100): Airbus' Middle East exposure is in our view offset by its strong Arthur Truslove 44 20 7883 1079 positions in Asia. A330 and A380 production rates have proactively been [email protected] reduced and recent A350 orders from China should help to absorb Specialist Sales: Andrew Bell deferrals. Our delivery forecasts already reflect a slower demand outlook 44 20 7888 0479 and we leave them unchanged. [email protected] ■ Boeing (Neutral, TP $200) adjusting to softer demand: We expect Boeing to stabilise at 2018E levels after cuts to the 777, down from the 2015 peak. We do not expect the 777X to rise above the 777 rate of 3.5/month for the foreseeable future. We keep the 787 rate at 12/month. ■ Better risk profile for Rolls-Royce amongst widebody engine makers: Although we have an Underperform rating on Rolls-Royce (TP 665p) due to its stretched valuation, we believe its geographic and programme exposure is limiting the risks on its production levels, while GE (Outperform, TP $33) is more exposed to the Middle East and the dwindling 777. Figure 1: Widebody backlog – # of passenger aircraft, June 2017 280 210 140 70 0 A 7 A A 7 7 O 7 A 7 A O A 7 O A 7 O 7 A A O 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 t t t t t h h h h h 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 3 5 8 5 5 5 3 e e e e e X X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 r r r r r n c n s s s s s e e e o o o Asia Middle East Europe North America Lessors / RoW Source: Flightglobal data DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 20 July 2017 Key charts Figure 2: Widebody aircraft exposure by company Figure 3: Fleet evolution by programme As % of 2016 revenues Change in number of passenger aircraft in service, as at June 50% 600 45% 500 40% 400 35% 300 30% 25% 200 20% 100 15% 0 10% -100 5% 0% -200 Z B R M A M S U G L H B e o o i a A o T o E T e r o d e b f l n X E g U l r -300 n 7 7 7 7 A A A A A O i s i u a e a g n - a 4 6 7 8 S s 3 3 3 3 3 n y t c i g R t h r 7 7 7 7 w 3 4 5 8 0 y t d o e s 0 0 0 0 0 e o y r t / l e s c 3 l m e 1 0 s Europe US 2011 vs 2005 2017 vs 2011 Source: Credit Suisse estimates Source: FlightGlobal data Figure 4: Fleet evolution by region – 2005 to 2017 Figure 5: Backlog by programme and region in number of aircraft in service, passenger aircraft, as at June 2017 in number of passenger aircraft, June 2017 40% 787 - Asia 9% 35% A350 - Asia 30% 11% Others 25% 36% A330neo- Asia 20% 3% 787- Europe 15% 5% 10% A350 - Europe 6% 5% A350 - RoW / Unannounced 787 - Middle East 3% 0% 6% A350 - North America 777X- Middle East Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America 4% A350 - Middle East 10% 7% Fleet 2005 Fleet 2011 Fleet 2017 Source: FlightGlobal data Source: FlightGlobal data Figure 6: Fleet evolution by engine maker Figure 7: Engine maker backlog by region in number of engines in service, passenger aircraft, as at June 2017 in number of engines, passenger aircraft, June 2017 4,500 4,000 Lessors 8% GE - Asia 7% 3,500 RoW and other 10% 3,000 Rolls-Royce - Asia 2,500 20% 2,000 Unannounced 7% 1,500 Rolls-Royce - North 1,000 America 5% GE - Europe 3% 500 GE - North America 0 2% GE Rolls-Royce P&W Engine Alliance CFMI Rolls-Royce - (50/50 GE / (50/50 Safran / Rolls-Royce - Middle Europe 10% P&W) GE) East 13% GE - Middle East 15% 2005 2011 2017 Source: FlightGlobal data Source: FlightGlobal data Widebody Aircraft Review2 20 July 2017 Table of contents Key charts 2 Summary 4 The widebody passenger fleet, structure, risks and strengths 10 Is the Middle East at risk of a significant slowdown? 25 Asia should remain an area of strength for widebody deliveries 29 Subdued prospects in Europe 33 North America looks weak again 36 Lessors: a marginal role in the segment 39 A peek into widebody freighters and tankers 40 Programme updates 44 In widebody engines, Rolls-Royce appears to offer the best risk profile 49 Widebody Aircraft Review3 20 July 2017 Summary We believe that the risks to the widebody segment are at their highest since the 2009 financial crisis, in particular due to specific issues in the Middle East (including a slowdown in traffic with the US, financial difficulties at some airlines and political tensions between Qatar and its neighbours). Investors may be unsettled by the dearth of new orders and a recent string of deferrals, after the production of widebodies broadly doubled over 2011- 2017. We share those concerns, but our analysis in this report also leads us to conclude that strength in Asia should offset most of the downside from the Middle East. This is consistent with both our positive rating for Airbus (Outperform, TP EUR100) and our more cautious stance on Boeing (Neutral, TP $200). In particular, we think that a low risk level on widebodies is supportive of the overall Airbus case, protecting the FCF story we are expecting (powered by the growth in A320 profits, A350 ramp-up and FX benefits). Amongst engines makers, Rolls-Royce (which we rate Underperform with a 665p target price, as we view the valuation as too stretched) appears to have a more stable position on widebodies than GE (Outperform, TP $33), but the latter should benefit strongly from growth on the narrowbody side. Middle East weakness should be offset by strength in Asia Our regional review shows that the Middle Eastern risk is concentrated on the A380, 787, 777X and A350. It also highlights that demand from Asian airlines should be supportive of widebody demand, in particular for the A330, A350 and 787. Europe and North America appear mixed, being soft in some areas and stronger in others. This could lead to a few deferrals driven by financial decisions in the context of low fuel prices rather than low traffic demand, in our opinion. We believe that the most recent decision by United to defer the delivery of four A350s from 2018 is a case in point, as in June the airline also ordered four 777s for delivery in 2018.Overall, the absence of incremental demand for the A380, the older 777 and the newer 777X puts pressure on the production rates for these aircraft in our view, while demand for the A330, A350 and 787 appears more resilient. Figure 8: Fleet by region and airframer Figure 9: Backlog by region and airframer in number of passenger aircraft in service, June 2017 in number of passenger aircraft in service, June 2017 1,000 450 900 400 800 350 700 300 600 250 500 400 200 300 150 200 100 100 50 0 Asia Pacific Middle East Europe North Latin Africa 0 America America Asia Middle East Europe North America Lessors RoW / Unannounced Airbus Boeing Airbus Boeing Source: FlightGlobal data Source: FlightGlobal data Widebody Aircraft Review4 20 July 2017 Most production cuts have already been implemented Additionally, we think that airframers have already taken adaptive measures in response to the deterioration, which can be seen from various angles: production rates have been cut (777, 747, A330 and A380), and ramp-ups have been or could be slowed (A350, 787).
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