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Asia Observatory ASIA OBSERVATORY BAO-37/2019(41) September 09 - 15, 2019 Bosphorus Center for Asian Studies Ankara 2019 2019 © All Rights Reserved. No part of this piece may be reproduced, copied or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or printed, without the permission of BAAM. The views expressed in this piece are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect our stance or policy. 2019 © Tüm Hakları Saklıdır. BAAM’ın izni alınmadan kısmen veya tamamen elektronik veya basılı olarak çoğaltılamaz, dağıtılamaz ve yayınlanamaz. Yazıda belirtilen görüşler yazara aittir ve BAAM’ın görüşlerini yansıtmak zorunda değildir. Internet: www.bogaziciasya.com E-Mail: [email protected] Twitter: @bogaziciasya_en - @bogaziciasya 2 Bosphorus Center for Asian Studies Bosphorus Center for Asian Studies (BAAM), founded in April 2018 in Ankara, is an independent think tank operating as an initiative of the Bosphorus Association for Social Research (BOSAR). In addition to Ankara and Istanbul, there are a total of 20 researchers who make contributions from different countries. BAAM is conducting research on the Asian region, mainly the Far East. Major areas of our studies include Asian Politics, Belt and Road Initiative, Great Power Competition, Foreign Policy of China, Political Economy of Asia Pacific Region, and the Turkey- Asia relations. The reports, briefings, opinions, translations and special news prepared by BAAM researchers are published on bogaziciasya.com and the weekly Asian Observatory bulletin which is shared with related individuals and organizations via Internet. Among the languages that the researchers in the team are able to read and write are French, Italian, Japanese and Amharic as well as English and Chinese. In this way, local resources can be used in research and a wide perspective is provided. The multi-lingual and heterogeneous structure brings together rich perspectives through in-team exchanges. Our studies are also published by SETAV, Bosphorus Migration Studies, The New Turkey E- Magazine, Journal of Dunya, Yildirim Beyazit University Center for Migration Research and Theory in Turkey, and by the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Italy. 3 From the Editor The impact of the trade war between China and the United States is now being felt fully. China's total trade volume with the US declined by 9% to $ 340 billion in the first eight months of the year. The decrease in China / US trade in China's overall trade volume reduces Washington's leverage on the Chinese policies. This is another aspect of the problem. The solution of the problem is important for both states as well as for the whole world. However, we also witness very different reflections of the problem. For example, demonstrations in Hong Kong or China's attempts to play a new role in the Middle East, especially in Iran, cannot be considered separate from the US-China trade war. Both states are staging new initiatives to force the other to get a concession on trade, especially where the other is vulnerable. This makes partners and allies of both states worry. It will not be too assertive to say that the relations between the US and China will become even more interesting in 2020. Because the US presidential election in 2020 is very important for Trump. If Trump wants to consolidate nationalist voters using populist and nationalist rhetoric and pursue a harsh policy against China, it will be inevitable the official start of a second Cold War. The Asia Observatory, as usual, contains many analyzes, news and commentaries to make sure you catch the busy Asian agenda this week as well as every week. Wish you have a good read… Haşim TÜRKER, Ph.D. Academic Coordinator @BAAM 4 Editorial Board Mehmet Enes Beşer (Director) Haşim Türker, Ph.D. (Academic Coordinator, Senior Researcher) Nazmul İslam (Senior Researcher) Mustafa Aydoğan (Researcher) Ebru Alagöz (Researcher) Kübra Merve Topgül (Researcher) Burcu Alkan (Researcher) Mert Karakadılar (Researcher) Safiye Ergun (Researcher) Nesibe Gül Kılıç (Researcher) Can Atasoy (Researcher) Kübranur Korkmaz (Researcher) 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Guest Author ................................................................................................................. 7 Headlines of the Week ............................................................................................ 10 Great Power Competition ...................................................................................... 12 Changing Security and Power Dynamics in East Asia ..................................................................................... 12 The U.S.-China Cold War Is a Myth ........................................................................................................................... 13 Preventing Cold War II.................................................................................................................................................... 13 Belt and Road .............................................................................................................. 14 27 new projects under CPEC expected to start by the end of 2019 ........................................................ 14 The trade war has changed US-China ties forever, so Beijing is building bridges to the EU through the belt and road ............................................................................................................................................. 14 Political Economy...................................................................................................... 15 China’s trade with the US falls 9% in first eight months ............................................................................... 15 AIIB and Amundi Launch Innovative USD 500-Million Climate Bond Portfolio to Mobilize Climate Action ..................................................................................................................................................................... 15 A Blow to US… China to Invest $280bn in Iran Sectors Targeted by Sanctions ................................ 16 Chinese Policy ............................................................................................................. 17 China’s President Is in Trouble................................................................................................................................... 17 Can Hong Kong maintain its status amid protests despite Beijing’s push to turn Shenzhen into a financial hub? ................................................................................................................................................................... 17 How China Disrupts the Middle East ....................................................................................................................... 18 Miscellaneous ............................................................................................................. 19 European Union and Central Asia: New Partnership in Action ................................................................. 19 6 Guest Author Free and Open Indo Pasific: A New Regional Approach and A New Initiative of Networkization? Serpil ÇOLAK1 Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) Initiative is a strategic policy which has a ultimate purpose of linking/combining two oceans (Indian and Pacific Oceans) and two continents (Asia and Africa) as a humanitarian and commercial network is being leading by United States of America (USA) and Japan and officially unveiled in 2016. While USA and Japan who are amongst of the major actors of Indo-Pacific Region call this strategic approach as “networking” in their foreign policies, “networkization (网络话)” is being used by People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s academic circles and both those terms refer to an approach which aims to link each Indo-Pacific country with each other also with USA within a commercial and security network. This strategic approach is being compared with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which was announced by PRC’s President Xi Jinxing in 2013, and both initiative is being considered in conflict of target not only for Indian Ocean Region (IOR) but also to set a commercial network for the countries of the region. However, some academic and political circles of the stakeholder – USA, Japan, India, Australia- countries criticize FOIP strategy for being too late to counterbalance PRC with such a project which remains an amorphous concept and has been elucidated limited practical implication in this strategically key Indian Ocean environ. This analysis will attempt to look these aforementioned initiatives out of three major actors; PRC, USA, India and will conclude how they approach to IOR and those initiatives. Before all else, the meaning and scope of Indo-Pacific term needs to be mentioned. The use of the term of Indo-Pacific dates back to colonial expansion period of South and East Asia by Western countries and the term was used to look/evaluate Pacific Region through IOR by giving India a central position. IOR encompasses Southeast Asia and Oceania, South Asia, East and Sub-Saharan Africa, Red Sea and African Horn, Middle East and the Gulf. This huge IOR; encloses half of the BRI and comprises of the Silk Road’s marine route. With BRI, China strives for the historical Silk Road to get back into circulation in world trade system. Likewise, USA published the new “National Security Strategy” on December 2017 and replaced the secular trend of “Asia-Pacific” term with a strategic “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” term in this report and updated the
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