A bi-annual publication of the University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim Volume II · Number 2 May · 2002 Copyright 2002 CONTENTS Editors Stephen J. Roddy Shalendra D. Sharma The Changed World of South Asia: Editorial Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India after September 11 Consultants >>.........................................................Richard J. Kozicki 1 Barbara K. Bundy Hartmut Fischer Richard J. Kozicki Stephen Uhalley, Jr. U.S. Base Mania in Central Asia Xiaoxin Wu >>..................................................Patrick Lloyd Hatcher 11 Editorial Board Yoko Arisaka The Making of an Integrated National Grain Market in China Bih-hsya Hsieh Uldis Kruze >>..............................................................Wubiao Zhou 17 Man-lui Lau Mark Mir Noriko Nagata John K. Nelson Kyoko Suda Bruce Wydick Graduate Editorial Representative Richard Lambert Asia Pacific: Perspectives is a peer-reviewed journal published twice a year in May and November. It welcomes submissions from all fields of the social sciences and the humanities. In keeping with the Jesuit traditions of the University of San Francisco, Asia Pacific: Perspectives commits itself to the highest standards of learning and Asia Pacific: Perspectives scholarship. Center for the Pacific Rim Our task is to inform public opinion through a broad hospitality to divergent views and ideas that promote 2130 Fulton St, LM202 San Francisco, CA cross-cultural understanding, tolerance, and the dissemination of knowledge unreservedly. Papers adopting a 94117-1080 comparative, interdisciplinary approach to issues of interrelatedness in the Pacific Rim region* will be especially welcome. Graduate students, as well as established scholars, are encouraged to submit their work. Tel: (415) 422-6357 Fax: (415) 422-5933 * ‘Pacific Rim region’ as used here includes North America, Pacific Central and South America, Oceania, Australia, New Zealand, [email protected] Southeast Asia, East Asia, South Asia (India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka), and the Russian Far East. Downloaded from http://www.pacificrim.usfca.edu/research/perspectives USF Center for the Pacific Rim Asia Pacific: Perspectives · May 2002 imperial “Great Game” between Tsarist Russia and Britain (namely the Raj in India) was contested as each rival sought to exert power and influence among the diverse and fiercely The Changed World of South independent Afghan tribes. In 1919 Britain, by treaty, gave up Asia: Afghanistan, Pakistan, its Afghan interests. A semblance of Afghan national govern- ment appeared, some friendship treaties were concluded and and India after September 11 frontiers demarked.3 But forging a genuine national unity among the Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and other tribes by Richard J. Kozicki, Ph.D. has remained an on-going socio-political challenge. As Louis Dupree wrote in his encyclopedic work, Afghanistan (al- Abstract though almost totally Islamic) does not have a uniform The unprecedented attacks on the United States on September 11, national culture and has been “attempting to create a nation- 2001 dramatically reoriented American policy interests in South Asia. state out of a hodgepodge of ethnic and linguistic groups.”4 Before the attacks, the George W. Bush administration had nearly rele- During the 40-year reign of King Zahir Shah (1933-1973), gated Pakistan to the category of a ‘rogue state’ because of its coup against a democratically elected government, its support for the Taliban there was an improved appearance of Afghan national unity regime in Afghanistan, its involvement in terrorist insurgency in the and stability. But this was far from complete, as tribalism and Indian-controlled Kashmir, and its involvement in nuclear and ballistic local warlordism were omnipresent. Zahir Shah's ouster by missiles deals with China and North Korea. In the immediate aftermath his cousin Mohammed Daoud was followed by a Republic of September 11, the Bush administration did a complete volte-face in its being declared, new power struggles in Kabul, assassinations dealings with Pakistan. However, this shift has further aggravated ten- sions in South Asia. This paper discusses why. of leaders (some were communists), Soviet political pene- tration and, in December 1979, a full-scale invasion by the Soviet Union. With Cold War overtones and international The horrendous attacks of September 11 on the World involvement, a new great game of sorts tragically occurred in Trade Center have resulted in countless observations on the the 1980's in Afghanistan. There was an explosion of guerrilla changed world of the United States and the general interna- warfare, with the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Paki- tional community. The focus and scope of this essay is more stan, and other countries funneling arms and funds to the limited, although regionally large: South Asia, particularly the rebel mujahideen. The 1980's were a devastating decade for countries of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India as the most Afghanistan. In addition to great physical destruction, some critical portion of this vast region.1 They have experienced six million Afghans eventually became refugees, mainly in significant political change before and, notably, changes Pakistan and Iran. Soviet withdrawal finally took place after during the six months since September 11. More can probably 15,000 Russian war-dead in February 1989.5 Soon afterwards, be expected. But this juncture affords an opportunity for an in untimely and undue haste, the United States and other examination of the changing international scene in present interested powers disengaged themselves from the plight of South Asia while providing some brief historical background Afghanistan—then battered and sorely torn, in growing material for contextual purposes.2 disarray, and more fragmented than ever. Several pertinent questions may be posed at the outset of The nominal government in Kabul, headed by a this overview, among them: How did Afghanistan fall into venerable Tajik, Burhanuddin Rabbani, as president, proved such a sorry condition that a terrorist non-Afghan organ- ineffective and incapable of achieving national power. By ization, the Al Qaeda, was established within and operated 1992, a period of clear anarchy had begun. It was marked by from Afghan territory? How involved has neighboring factional power struggles, a rise of warlordism and the spread Pakistan been in this highly disruptive development of a of inter-tribal warfare. Within two years a militant Islamist militant Islamist force and international network? What have group in Kandahar became well known. Termed the Taliban been the implications and challenges for India, Pakistan's (Religious Students Movement), it promised Islamic dis- southern neighbor and standing adversary, especially in cipline and governmental stability and order, and its number regard to the dangerous issue of Kashmir? Can another Indo- of supporters and fighters grew rapidly. In 1996, the Taliban Pakistani war be averted with both countries being militia captured Kabul, deposed Rabbani, controlled most of ominously nuclear-weapons states since 1998? What are the Afghanistan, and began to impose a strict Islamic regime important linkages and spillovers of events and actions in one based on its fundamentalist interpretation of Islam under of the three states—Afghanistan Pakistan, India—on the Mullah Muhammad Omar's leadership. This meant, among others? And what valid national interests do states outside other things, outlawing music, banning women from edu- the immediate South Asia region have in its international cation and workplaces and public executions in sports sta- affairs, notably the United States? diums. The Taliban's world view was part of what Fouad 6 Afghanistan: Ajami has aptly described as a “fierce, redemptive Islam” , one operative variously in Muslim lands. This involves a dual Externally and Internally Besieged feature: challenging conservative Arab governments favor- The land-locked area of Afghanistan has had a long able to the West, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and actively history of invasions by various peoples and armies. In the confronting the ‘corrupting’ Western powers wherever 19th century it became a leading locale for major power possible, especially the United States. competition amidst the Afghan ethnocentric mosaic. The http://www.pacificrim.usfca.edu/research/perspectives South Asia After September 11 / Kosicki · 1 USF Center for the Pacific Rim Asia Pacific: Perspectives · May 2002 Concurrently, a nexus and dovetailing of interests United States’ ‘most allied ally’. The relationship seemed quite developed in the mid-1990's between Taliban-led Afghanistan firm, and over the decade 1954-65 Pakistan was the recipient and Osama bin Laden, the exiled wealthy Saudi businessman of some $2 billion from the U.S. in military and economic aid. who became the leading proponent of a militant Islamist A trend was apparently started, even though Pakistan chose theology and the purveyor for measures of holy terror.7 Fol- for security reasons to look south toward India rather than lowing his sojourn in radical Sudan in the early 1990's, a safe north beyond Afghanistan toward the Soviet Union. haven of sanctuary was granted to bin Laden by the kindred During the early 1960's, Afghanistan became a different new Taliban regime in Kabul. He then proceeded to truly foreign policy concern for Pakistan. The “Pashtunistan” issue create with noteworthy help from Egyptian revolutionaries