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The Difficult Normalisation of Relations Between Arab Countries and Bashar Al‑Assad. from International Journals, Think Tank P SWP Journal Review NO. 1 NOVEMBER 2020 Introduction The Difficult Normalisation of Relations between Arab Countries and Bashar al-Assad From International Journals, Think Tank Publications and Arab News Media, 2019–2020 Sarah Ch. Henkel The Syrian civil war seems to have been decided in favour of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Meanwhile, the process and the debate about the normalisation of relations between Arab states and Syria, as well as the country’s possible readmis- sion into the Arab League (AL), have already begun. A return to normality would help strengthen the legitimacy of the Syrian regime. This, however, would run counter to efforts by Germany, the European Union (EU) and the USA, who seek to force the Syrian regime by means of sanctions and isolation to negotiate a political solution to the conflict. In addition to Syria’s contentious return to the AL, the articles examined here discuss the motives of those Arab countries wishing to normalise relations with Damascus, and the influence that external actors and the Covid pandemic exert on this process. Beyond the military victory brought about the AL in November 2011. Maghreb coun- by Russia and Iran, the Assad regime cru- tries, Iraq and Oman, for example, were cially needs legitimisation, especially from mostly neutral towards the Syrian govern- the Arab world, to consolidate its authority ment. Moreover, Russia’s intervention and reconstruct the country. The debate already foreshadowed in 2015 that the about the rapprochement between Arab Assad regime would remain in place. Since states and Damascus is marked by contro- then, various events have accelerated the versy. The majority of these states supported discussion about the normalisation of Assad’s enemies at the start of the conflict. relations between Arab countries and the His uncompromising war also seriously Assad regime: first, the reopening of the destabilised neighbouring countries, above UAE’s and Bahrain’s embassies in Damas- all Jordan and Lebanon. Yet at no point cus in December 2018; second the (failed) during the civil war was Syria wholly iso- attempt to have Syria readmitted to the AL lated – not even after its exclusion from in March 2019, driven by Tunisia, Algeria and presumably Egypt; and third, the that is affiliated with the Arab Center for reinstatement of Oman’s ambassador to Research and Policy Studies in Doha. He writes Damascus on 4 October 2020. that, ironically, it is the differences of This journal review examines this debate opinion between Arab countries that have with a particular focus on Jordan and Leba- prevented them from taking the “foolish non, which are not involved in the Syrian and costly decision” to rashly readmit Syria civil war but have nonetheless been strongly to the AL. In his view, the Arab world has impacted by it. The review will also exam- to “hold on to at least a veneer of respect- ine those countries that have assumed the ability” and make any resumption of rela- role of opinion leaders through their active tions with Assad’s government conditional commitment and positioning in favour of on the regime atoning for its crimes and normalising relations: the UAE and Egypt. initiating a political process. However, he It will draw on analyses by Arab, American, adds, most Arab governments are authori- European and Russian researchers, pub- tarian themselves and meanwhile gladly lished in 2019 and 2020 in Arab and inter- refrain from calling for a democratic tran- national think tanks, journals and Arab sition in Syria. news media. According to the Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies – a research, cultural and media institute headquartered in Doha The Trend towards Normalisation and Istanbul, and affiliated with Doha’s Arab Center – it is unlikely that Arab coun- The dominant debate on the readmission tries will give the Syrian regime, its methods of Syria to the AL often evokes the lack of and hostile posture towards them free rein. regional consensus for such institutional The main Arab actors involved in Syria, it reintegration of Damascus. While some claims, have no interest in Syria’s “victori- articles call on Arab countries not to accom- ous return” to the AL because they have modate Syria, equally there is criticism their own priorities, interests and condi- of the organisation’s current state and the tions, which Assad would have to meet increasingly authoritarian governments before his government could enjoy reinte- of its member states. Other commentators gration into the region. Yet, the authors even suspect that Damascus could exploit argue that Arab governments’ normalisa- the dire situation to its advantage. tion of relations with Assad serve them as In an article for Atlantic Council, the the latest evidence of the futility of their Middle East analysts Ali Hussein Bakeer own peoples’ uprisings. Ever since the fail- and Giorgio Cafiero argue that despite ure of the AL’s initiative to mediate the a trend among Arab countries towards Syrian civil war in 2011, the organisation normalising their relations with Syria the is paralysed and its policies mostly reflect question of Assad’s legitimacy strongly their member states’ divergences. Yet, the polarises the region. The UAE, Bahrain, Iraq organisation has become a means to protect and North African countries have called for Arab rulers and legitimate the suppression and encouraged the resumption of bilateral of their people. relations with Damascus as well as Syria’s Tatyana Shmeleva, a Middle East re- return to the AL. Relations with its neigh- searcher with the Russian International Affairs bour Jordan have been steadily improving Council (RIAC), a think tank close to the Rus- as well. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have pointed sian government, believes that AL members out the necessity of a UN-led political solu- that voted to expel Syria from the organi- tion to the civil war, and only Qatar has sation have no business lecturing Syria on categorically rejected normalising relations democracy and human rights. Syria, she with Syria. writes, does not depend on the AL and could Imad K. Harb is the director of the Arab afford to wait for more favourable con- Center Washington DC, a research institution ditions in the region for its re-accession. SWP Journal Review 1 November 2020 2 Daniel L. Byman of the Center for Middle political price risks being too high. In East Policy at the Brookings Institution, seen Lebanon, he points out, rapprochement as close to the US Democrats, also views with Syria also has a domestic driver: the Damascus as being in a position of strength steady strengthening of Hezbollah, Assad’s towards the Arab world and the West. For ally, has shifted the discourse in Beirut Byman, the fear of continued instability, towards resuming relations with its neigh- especially at Syria’s borders, has caused bour. According to El-Halabi, Lebanese neighbouring countries to resume contact politicians’ instrumentalisation of the one with the Assad regime, albeit quietly. The million Syrian refugees in the country – Syrian regime, he suggests, could demand the largest refugee-per-inhabitant ratio any- financial support and structured coopera- where in the world – has turned public tion from its neighbours and the EU for opinion in favour of entering into talks re-admitting Syrian refugees. Further, he with Damascus for the sake of the return of believes that a limited terrorism problem, refugees. The repatriation of refugees is also deliberately controlled by Damascus, could a priority for Jordan in its relations with help the Syrian government obtain Euro- Syria. As Jordan’s ailing economy further pean and US support and present itself as suffered from several years of border clo- part of a counterterrorist coalition. To that sures with Iraq and Syria, the reopening of end, Byman writes, Assad may release border crossings, he writes, is another key jihadists of the so-called Islamic State from reason for its exchanges with Damascus. prison, as he did at the outbreak of the civil Mohammed Bani Salameh and Ayman war, to exert pressure on potential coopera- Hayajneh of Yarmouk University in Irbid, tion partners. Jordan, devote an article in the Middle East Quarterly, a journal published by the Middle East Forum headquartered in Philadelphia, Diverging Motives USA, to the situation in Jordan. They em- phasise that the country is becoming ever The debate about what motivates countries more dependent on foreign aid by the US, to strive to normalise relations with Syria the EU and the Gulf states due to its socio- shows a complex mix of issues. For Jordan economic and political problems, which are and Lebanon, commentators write that exacerbated by the refugee crisis. This, they their economic interests and domestic point out, significantly limits Amman’s politics are decisive, as well as the fact that room for manoeuvre in foreign policy: the Syrian civil war has had a big impact Jordan has to meet its donors’ demands on them. The UAE’s and Egypt’s motives, to position itself against Assad while also however, are according to observers best having to contend with its own concerns accounted for by the countries’ financial about the Syrian uprising and the Syrian and security interests, and geopolitical opposition. They conclude that Amman’s rivalry with Iran and Turkey. tightrope act of reconciling complex and In an article for the report “Rebuilding often contradictory domestic, regional and Syria” published by the Istituto per gli Studi international interests in relation to Syria di Politica Internazionale (ISPI) in Milan, in a coherent approach is becoming in- the Lebanese Middle East analyst Bachar creasingly difficult. El-Halabi describes how Lebanon’s and Jor- The French-Lebanese journalist Mona dan’s pressing economic needs are urging Alami writes in her article for the Atlantic these countries to be open towards Damas- Council that Hezbollah and its allies misuse cus.
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