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February 18, 2021 Hearing Transcript HEARING ON DETERRING THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AGGRESSION TOWARD TAIWAN HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2021 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: https://www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2021 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, CHAIRMAN ROBIN CLEVELAND, VICE CHAIRMAN Commissioners: BOB BOROCHOFF DEREK SCISSORS JEFFREY L. FIEDLER HON. JAMES M. TALENT HON. CARTE P. GOODWIN ALEX WONG ROY D. KAMPHAUSEN MICHAEL R. WESSEL The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the “Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003,” Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109- 108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law Nol. 110-161 (December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the Annual Report due date from June to December); as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, P.L. 113-291 (December 19, 2014) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission). The Commission’s full charter is available at https://www.uscc.gov. i CONTENTS THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2021 HEARING ON DETERRING THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AGGRESSION TOWARD TAIWAN Opening Statement of Senator James M. Talent (Hearing Co-Chair) ..................................................................................................................1 Prepared Statement ...................................................................................................................3 Opening Statement of Senator Carte P. Goodwin (Hearing Co-Chair) ...................................................................................................................4 Prepared Statement ...................................................................................................................6 Opening Statement of Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew ...............................................................7 Panel I: The Cross-Strait Military Balance Panel I Introduction by Senator Carte P. Goodwin (Hearing Co-Chair) ...................................................................................................................8 Statement of Lonnie Henley Defense Intelligence Officer for East Asia at the Defense Intelligence Agency (retired) and Adjunct Professor, George Washington University ..................................................................9 Prepared Statement .................................................................................................................11 Statement of Fiona Cunningham Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University ................................................................................................................................20 Prepared Statement .................................................................................................................23 Statement of Michael Hunzeker Assistant Professor, George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government .....36 Prepared Statement .................................................................................................................38 Panel II: Political Calculations Underlying Cross-Strait Deterrence Panel II Introduction by Senator James M. Talent (Hearing Co-Chair) .................................................................................................................69 Statement of Oriana Skylar Mastro Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and Non-Resident Senior Fellow , AEI ............................................................................................70 Prepared Statement .................................................................................................................73 Statement of Kharis Templeman Research Fellow, Hoover Institution at Stanford University ..................................................84 Prepared Statement .................................................................................................................86 Statement of Mark Cozad Senior International Defense Researcher at RAND Corporation ..........................................103 Prepared Statement ...............................................................................................................106 ii Panel III: U.S. Policy and Cross-Strait Deterrence Panel III Introduction by Carte P. Goodwin (Hearing Co-Chair) ...............................................................................................................136 Statement of Thomas Shugart Adjunct Senior Fellow, Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security ........137 Prepared Statement ...............................................................................................................140 Statement of Bonny Lin Political Scientist at RAND Corporation ..............................................................................160 Prepared Statement ...............................................................................................................162 Statement of David Keegan Foreign Service Officer (retired) and Adjunct Lecturer, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies ............................................................................................177 Prepared Statement ...............................................................................................................179 STATEMENT FOR THE RECORD Statement of Shelley Rigger Brown Professor of Political Science at Davidson College .................................................209 QUESTION FOR THE RECORD Responses from Thomas Shugart Adjunct Senior Fellow, Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security ...... 216 PUBLIC COMMENT SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD Public Comment from Jean Public .............................................................................................220 iii DETERRING THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AGGRESSION TOWARD TAIWAN THURSAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2021 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Washington, DC The Commission met via videoconference at 10:30 a.m., Senator Carte P. Goodwin and Senator James M. Talent (Hearing Co-Chairs) presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR JAMES M. TALENT HEARING CO-CHAIR SENATOR TALENT: Good morning, everybody. I'm Commissioner Jim Talent, and I want to welcome everyone to the second hearing of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission's 2020 annual report cycle. Thanks to all of you for joining us, and thanks especially to our witnesses for the time and effort they put into their testimonies. The Commission holds this hearing as China's hostile rhetoric and provocative military actions have created an increasing threat to our partners in Taiwan and throughout the Indo- Pacific. As tensions rise, Taiwan's ability to deter China from using military force, even with the help of like-minded countries, is more and more uncertain. Taiwan has always been a particular focus of the Commission. We include a chapter on it in every annual report to Congress. Normally, we assess the relationship between Taiwan and China as well as Taiwan's significant economic, political, and security ties with the United States and other countries. In last year's report, the Commission noted that China's increasing use of military coercion and provocation is putting increasing pressure on Taiwan's government and public. The PLA's aggressive maneuvers, such as flights by military aircraft into Taiwan's air defense identification zone, may reflect the view in Beijing that the results of its expansive military modernization campaign allow it to use its military power with increased impunity. And, indeed, there is no question that the Cross-Strait military balance has become more favorable to China in recent years and particularly in the last ten years. Where that balance now rests is open to question, but that the balance has altered significantly in China's direction is not. In addition, China, under General Secretary Xi Jinping, and especially since the election of President Tsai Ing-wen, has become more overtly hostile in word and deed towards Taiwan. With the changing military balance, the prospect of outright coercion is greater now than it has been in the past. Taiwan, a vibrant democracy of 23 million people and an important partner of the United States, is therefore now facing a growing threat from a more hostile and risk-tolerant China. We're holding this hearing to examine the nature of that risk and how best it might be deterred, and we're going to look
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