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Landslide Susceptibility of Portland, Jamaica: Assessment and Zonation

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Landslide Susceptibility of Portland, Jamaica: Assessment and Zonation Bhalai, S. 2010. Landslide Susceptibility of Portland, Jamaica: Assessment and Zonation. Caribbean Journal of Earth Science, Volume 41, 39-54. Available online: 14th January 2011. © Geological Society of Jamaica. Landslide Susceptibility of Portland, Jamaica: Assessment and Zonation SURESH BHALAI Mines and Geology Division, Hope Gardens, Kingston 6, Jamaica. [email protected] ABSTRACT. The Government of Jamaica commissioned landslide susceptibility assessment of the parish of Portland represents a response to the continuous landslide problem experienced there. Portland is known for the frequent occurrence of landslides, induced by rainfall or seismic activity. Losses amounting to millions of dollars and numerous disaster-related deaths are attributed to landslide activity. Medium-scale (1:50,000) landslide susceptibility analysis through a combination of direct (field) and indirect (statistical) methods is used to generate a landslide susceptibility model for the parish. Using an inventory of known landslides, the bivariate statistical method, specifically simple map combination, is applied to compute weightings for the predisposing factors of landslides originating from topography and geology. The methodology used attempts to maintain full objectiveness in the model. Field experience is introduced where statistical methods fall short of realistically predicting the natural environment. Experience is also used to test the practicality of the map, bridging the void from the ideal theoretical model to the realistic ground truth. The susceptibility model ideally predicts existing landslides with approximately 80% accuracy; a value that is highly acceptable. The model may be employed as a tool for rural and physical planning, engineering works, building and infrastructure developments, and importantly natural hazard mitigation. Key words: landslide; susceptibility; Portland, Jamaica; bivariate statistics. 1. INTRODUCTION Landslides in Jamaica are generally triggered by earthquakes or during heavy rainfall events. Increasing loss of property and lives from landslide Sometimes both processes work in tandem. The disasters has led the Government of Jamaica, Judgment Cliff landslide is one such case which through the Mines and Geology Division (the local occurred either during or shortly after the Great Port Geological Survey) to undertake landslide Royal Earthquake of 1692, when there was also a susceptibility analysis of different regions of the period of torrential rains where the Yallahs River island. The eastern parishes of Jamaica are was in spate. Jamaica is tectonically active and the historically known for the frequent occurrences of eastern end shows dominance in seismic activity. In damaging landslides. Examples include the popular terms of earthquake frequency western Portland is Judgment Cliff landslide of St. Thomas of 1692 classified as having the potential to experience 8 to (Zans, 1959), the Millbank landslide of Portland of 15 damaging earthquakes of MMI VI or greater per 1937 (Harris, 2002) and the Preston landslide of St. century as computed by Pereira (1979). Central Mary of 1986 (Bryce et al., 1987). These have Portland has a frequency of 6 to 7 events per induced large losses and caused numerous deaths century whereas east Portland may experience 4 to and have highlighted the urgent need for zonation 5 events per century. Other regions in Jamaica have of the land surface according to the probability of an average expected frequency of 3 to 5 events per occurrence, that is, the propensity or the century. The January 13, 1993 earthquake of MMI susceptibility for land slippage. Under the landslide VII had epicentre at the Blue Mountain Ridge susceptibility assessment programme started by the between St. Andrew and Portland. Forty landslides Government in 1998, a pilot study was done on the were triggered in these parishes, many of which Rio Grande Valley (Mines and Geology Division, were in Portland. Roads were blocked and water 2000) and St. Thomas and St. Mary parishes were pipes and electricity poles damaged (Ahmad, 1996). subsequently zoned (Mines and Geology Division, In one case, at Greenhill, on the Newcastle to Buff 2004a, b). The study of Portland followed (Bhalai, Bay road, 100 m of roadway was destroyed (Harris, 2007; Mines and Geology Division, 2007). 1996). 39 S. BHALAI – Landslide susceptibility of Portland, Jamaica Figure 1. Rainfall-induced landslide (November 2005) at London along the Seamans Valley to Moore Town Road, Rio Grande Valley, in weathered volcanic rock and shale. Classified as a rock slump–debris/earth flow. Damage included blocked road, four houses obliterated along with personal effects of occupants, light pole toppled and water main severed. (A) View up-slope of landslide (left-hand side facing the landslide). The scarp is the source area for the material. Perched groundwater emerging from the Figure 2. Rainfall-induced landslide at 4 Red Hassle landslide body results in the spring. (B) View along Road between Port Antonio and Breastworks. Rainfall road looking towards Moore Town (right-hand side period Nov. 19 – 25, 2006. A: View from main road at facing the landslide). The spring in (A) has eroded a base of landslide; note that the house has been channel in the road. Unstable debris continued mangled with the landslide debris. B: Side view of blocking the road as the material settled. The partly destroyed house. The body of a woman that died was stable boulder in the foreground threatened road dug from the doorway of this partially intact bedroom users. The inset shows the size of the boulder (marked by arrow). [R. Green, Nov. 30, 2006]. compared to the size of a man. (C) Remains of houses destroyed by the landslide (toe-area of landslide). Three of the obliterated houses were at this location; only two are visible. Note the toppled electrical pole. [S. Bhalai, Dec. 2005 and R. Green, Nov. 30, 2006]. Eastern Jamaica receives on average 500 cm of rainfall annually with Portland receiving more rainfall than any other parish. During the period of rainfall from January 3 to 4, 1998, Portland received between 200 mm and 300 mm of rainfall. Many landslides were triggered causing severe damage and destruction to agriculture, buildings, roads and infrastructure. Thirty-five houses were damaged and 25 were destroyed. Damaged roadways total 1.27 Figure 3. Composite showing break-away at Section, km and 0.8 km was destroyed. Of the total damage Newcastle to Buff Bay main road. The source area of estimate of JA$384.2 million (1998 dollars), 60% or the landslide is continually retreating, constantly destroying the footpath cut on the left. At the extreme JA$231.1 million was accountable to landslide bottom-right-hand corner of the plate is the events (Harris, 2002). Landslides continue to cause remediation gabion works under construction (thick large economic losses through damage of property arrow). Informal communication with resident in 2006 and infrastructure; unfortunately sometimes lives are revealed that this installation will cost $3 million. [S lost (Figures 1-5). Bhalai, Aug. 2006] 40 S. BHALAI – Landslide susceptibility of Portland, Jamaica Figure 4. Elaborate gabion works installed at Spring Figure 5. Fig. 5. Landslide at Friday, south of Ginger Hill, Buff Bay River valley. Landslide (background) House, Rio Grande valley. Landslide (centre) has had obliterated the road. The source area still having reduced the road to narrow single lane. The landslide portions of the slipped mass is clearly visible. This is very active, continually retreating over the last 10 structure is a combination of step-gabion baskets and years. It continues to fail as the unstable colluvial mattress gabion baskets (partially seen at base of material slips from the steep slope above in the zone of photograph). Note the large drainage pipe at the unstable material delineated by secondary shrubbery. centre of the photo. Poor drainage is a major trigger Colluvium consists of debris of volcanic rock and of slope failures throughout Portland. Remediation limestone originating from across the river (behind measures such as this are quite costly [R. Green, Feb. photographer). Note that the colluvium overlies the 2007] shale which shows distinct bedding in the river bank (lower left-hand corner). Beds dip towards the river It is therefore necessary to be able to predict the encouraging planar failure in the colluvium. This landslide susceptibility, that is, the probability of particular landslide has made several news reports as the occurrence of potentially damaging landslides the locality is hazardous to road users. The latest was across the parish in order to reduce disaster-related 2009 when a vehicle toppled over and became lodged just below the roadway. [S. Bhalai, June 2009] costs and proactively save lives. Many techniques are currently available for predicting landslide This final model is classified into zones of susceptibility employing direct (landslide inventory increasing landslide susceptibility. Guidelines approach) and indirect (heuristic, statistical and defining each susceptibility zones are created to deterministic approaches) methods (Hansen, 1984; support the model and increase its usefulness to Soeters and van Westen, 1996). For Portland a planners, engineers, developers and citizens who combination of both methods was employed. The may have an interest in understanding the landslide direct method involves surveyors indentifying and propensity of the parish. documenting past and present
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