www.-confidential.com 1 September 2000 Vol 41 No 17 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL CONGO-KINSHASA 2 CONGO-KINSHASA Bemba’s boys The opposition MLC was formed A losing gamble between late 1998 and early 1999 Under renewed military pressure President Kabila’s regime does not around the huge figure of Jean- understand the strength of its opponents Pierre Bemba. He used to run an airline and a cellular telephone President Laurent-Désiré Kabila had hoped that his opponents’ quarrels would bring him a quick company; now he heads the most victory. After the Rwandan forces had defeated their former Ugandan allies at Kisangani in June, Kabila successful opposition militia launched heavy attacks against the armed opposition in Equateur province. The result was a military and fighting the Kabila government’s forces. diplomatic disaster, and made a fiasco of the latest Southern African Development Community summit in Lusaka on 14-15 August. The meeting brought together the leaders of the SADC states, and of Rwanda and of , in an SOUTH AFRICA 3 attempt to get the peace process back on track. Yet none of Kabila’s fellow Presidents, not even his Namibian ally Sam Nujoma, could persuade him to accept Botswana’s former President Ketumile Calling labour’s Masire as official facilitator of the inter-Congolese dialogue, or to accept ’ peacekeepers bluff in government-held areas. Black union militants plan new Then just ten days after Kabila had announced that the Lusaka peace accord was obsolete and had to clashes with the ANC government be completely renegotiated, he added that he would now agree to the deployment of blue-helmeted UN over jobs and labour law reform. peacekeepers across the country. No one claims to understand this volte-face. Friends of former Nigerian But many union leaders would and newly appointed UN envoy to Congo-Kinshasa, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, prefer a compromise that maintains suggest it was ’s negotiating prowess that helped convince Kabila. Those who know Kabila better their old alliance with the ANC and the SA Communist Party. This see it as yet another gambit by the presidential conjurer in Kinshasa. Refusing UN deployment had taken argument between militants and the force out of Kabila’s continuing complaints about the invading forces from Uganda, Burundi and leaders is set to dominate a Rwanda in his country. national trades union policy conference on 18 September. The Kabila-Mugabe chill Kabila was under pressure from his Zimbabwean allies, and other SADC states, to make some ZAMBIA 5 concessions on UN peacekeepers. Unquestionably, commercial and diplomatic relations between Kabila and ’s President have deteriorated in the past few months. Kabila senses Copper politics Mugabe’s resolve is weakening as his own domestic crisis worsens; equally Kabila knows that handing The Chiluba government's bungled out diamond concessions to Zimbabwean businesses and their allies is currently a political liability in sell-off of the copper mines has Congo (AC Vol 41 No 11). already prompted political fall-out. Making concessions to the UN also allows Kabila to press Burundi to sign the Lusaka peace accord, Opposition parties, including the allowing him to expose the involvement of Major Pierre Buyoya’s forces in Eastern Congo. But above new Republican Party led by ex- Defence Minister Ben Mwila, are all, Kabila is playing for time. Granting access to UN peacekeepers and probably directing them towards trying to stir up the mining unions the battle-zones in the north-west may dampen the military operations of Jean-Pierre Bemba’s who were formerly loyal to Mouvement du Libération de Congo. Chiluba’s multi-party movement . Kabila is fundamentally opposed to the dialogue proposed in the Lusaka agreement, signed in July and August 1999, which stipulates that the country’s constitutional future should be settled by consensus BURUNDI 7 among government, ‘civil society’, the rebels and the unarmed opposition. The determination not to share power was strengthened in April, when Belgium issued an international arrest warrant for his Foreign Under Kilimanjaro Affairs Minister, Abdoulaye Yerodia Ndombasi, accusing him of having called for the massacre of Tutsi in Kinshasa in April 1998. Civil complaints laid before the Belgian courts make similar charges President Buyoya assured Burundians that the accord signed against Kabila, Information Minister Didier Mumengi, Communications Advisor Dominique Sakombi in Arusha on 28 August was the Inongo and Kakudji, though no arrest warrants have been issued. Kabila and his cousin, Interior Minister 'first step' to peace and that Gaetan Kakudji, gradually coopted, in June and July, the members of his ‘parliament’, whose President, negotiations would continue. Tshamala wa Kamwanya, called on 18 August for the formation of peoples’ self-defence forces. All this has made Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel’s attempted rapprochement with Kabila more embarrassing. POINTERS 8 Kabila met Rwanda’s President in on 3 June. On 12 June, as soon as the Ugandans had lost the Kisangani battle, his troops launched an offensive against ’s ally in , John Equateur, the MLC. The MLC’s troops, then at Buburu on the Oubangui River, were forced back to the Vernon & positions they held before last year’s ceasefire, signed by all parties in Lusaka and respected by none. On 12 June, the day of the Equateur offensive, government aircraft - two MiGs and one Antonov - 1 September 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 17

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC supplemented by heavy artillery mounted on four (later six) barges u angu m b i Bo belonging to the parastatal Office National des Transports (Onatra) u CAMEROON O Gbadolité ele Libenge U and operated by Zimbabwean soldiers. The Kinshasa government had Gemena Isiro RCD- Dongo MLC Buta Lisala BUNIA requisitioned the fuel stocks held in the capital by the Central African Imese L.Albert go ORIENTALE company Petroca at the end of May, and the Congo- Impfondo Con Bunia Buburu Basankusu ÉQUATEUR Kisangani Beni company Hydrocongo in June. The aim was to relieve the fuel shortage REPUBLIC Mbandaka L. Edward in Kinshasa, while making supplies difficult for Jean-Pierre Bemba’s GABON OF DEMOCRATIC U N- CONGO Ikela KIVU REP. Goma Ugandan-allied MLC (see box), which controls the entire border with RWA. OF CONGO V Bukavu L.Kivu the Central African Republic and part of that with Congo-B as far as RCD-GOMA KABILA I SUD- Cabinda KASAI KIVU Impfondo, whence it got its oil. BUR. (Ang.) Bandundu ORIENTAL Kindu K Uvira as KINSHASA ai Ilebo MANEIMA

L BANDUNDU KASAI Lusambo K

a OCCIDENTAL k Rebel victory go BAS- Kikwit e on Kalémi Boma Kananga e Ta C CONGO Kabinda a b i n a At first, the offensive brought some success. In mid-July, Bemba’s l d g Tshikapa a a Maquela Mbuji- a K t u n a w L do Zombo Mayi y troops were pushed back to Imese, 200 kilometres north of Libenge, a Manono M i n k

g a o Pweto mainly because they were short of fuel, brought in from Uganda by air KATANGA in the MLC’s sole Antonov. This made it harder still to supply the Kamina (SHABA) L.Mweru KABILA Armée de Liberation Congolaise with food and ammunition while it ANGOLA L. Ocean Atlantic Kolwezi Likasi Bangweulu was dug in under enemy fire at Imese. On this front the ALC, whose zi be am Lubumbashi heaviest weapons are mortars and rocket propelled grenades (RPGs), Z 0 Kilometres 800 had no ground-to-air missiles for use against an airforce that Kabila ZAMBIA 0Miles 400 has laboriously strengthened over recent months. According to the Rassemblement Congolais pour la Démocratie dropped bombed a school-yard, a church and other civilian areas at (RCD), the pro-Rwandan rebel group based in Goma, by mid-August Libenge, also on the Oubangi river, missing their real target, the Kabila had at his disposal 13 aircraft: two MiG-21s, two Su-25s, four airstrip. The government’s bombing along the Oubangui intensified, Antonov 32s, two Ilyushins, one Douglas DC-8 and two MI-24 attack Bemba’s boys The Mouvement de Libération du Congo was formed between late 1998 General or ‘Prime Minister’, Olivier Kamitatu, is 38 and was born in and early 1999 around Jean-Pierre Bemba, a huge man who stands Brussels. His father, Cleophas Kamitatu from Bandundu, is now in some 1.90 metres tall and weighs perhaps 120 kilogrammes, and once gaol in Kinshasa for having been a minister under Mobutu and refusing ran an airline and a cellular telephone company. Since his business to be one under Kabila. The MLC National Financial Secretary is interests were in Uganda, he refused the protection of General Paul François Muamba, a 48-year-old from Kasaï, once a member of Kagame of Rwanda, and in September 1998 asked President Yoweri Etienne Tshsekedi wa Malumba’s Union pour la Démocratie et le Museveni to give him and some 150 Congolese some military training. Progrès Social and a minister under Premier Leon Kengo wa Dondo. After the MLC was set up Laurent Kabila appointed Bemba’s father, The movement’s economic policy is strictly free-enterprise; it says ex- minister Jeannot Bemba Saolona, as Economy it won’t copy Kabila and get into business itself, and owns no mines or Minister. He sacked him two months ago. plantations. It levies export taxes of ten per cent on diamonds and 20 Although a product of the golden days of Mobutisme, Bemba Junior per cent on coffee, which raises half its revenue, it says. Diamond- has broken with most of Mobutu’s barons. He started by declaring ex- traders are mostly foreign and include Central Africans and Israelis. generals Kpama Baramoto and Nzimbi persona non grata in the The first budget is to be announced next month, and local communities ‘liberated territories’ - some 450,000 square kilometres, covering four- have recently been authorised to manage some tax revenue. Uganda’s fifths of Equateur region and about half of Orientale Province - until the financial contribution to its war-machine (it claims an army of 20,000 whole country is ‘liberated’. Nonetheless, Mobutu’s former security men) is said to be diminishing steadily. advisor, Jean Seti Yale, is said, quietly, to be a friend of Bemba’s. A Other senior members include officers from the east, such as the French businessman established in South Africa, Jean-Yves Olivier, Chief of Staff, Colonel Amuli, and Col. Kibonge Mulomba, National stays with Bemba during his frequent visits to Congo-Kinshasa. He is Secretary for Defence. Bemba has carefully picked his cabinet from regarded as an enthusiastic supporter of the movement, which is also different parts of the country. The Secretary for the Economy, Albert taken seriously in Côte d’Ivoire: in June, an emissary of the Ivorian Mbia (56), once Ambassador to Portugal, comes from Equateur; so do presidency met Bemba. the secretaries for Mines and Energy, Yewawa Gbiamango (49) and Bemba runs a personality cult. Schoolchildren chant the praises of for Agriculture, Vincent Mokako (56). Foreign Affairs Secretary ‘Bai-Moto’, the ‘Man of Fire’, which is also the name of his only Dominique Kanku (39) is from Kasaï, and so is Justice Secretary aircraft, an Antonov captured from the government in 1999, along with Nicolas Kedishinba. a barge used to ship munitions on the Oubangui River. Lingala praise- The MLC is highly centralised. Article 14 of its statutes, prescribing singers call him ‘Moise na biso’ (‘Our Moses’). Bemba revels in the the organisation of the General Secretariat (government) with twelve esteem of his fighters, and among the public. He lives in his father’s national secretaries, lays down that they are nominated by Bemba on house, giving orders by satellite telephone or fax, and travels regularly the advice of the Politico-Military Liberation Council, which he to the front or to see new recruits. Unlike Kabila, whose youths appoints: its senior members include Amuli, Kamitatu, Kanku and aggressively keep the crowd at a distance, Bemba likes to mingle and Montfort Konzi Sende, the President’s personal advisor. The Armée shake hands with the crowd, as he did during the first anniversary de Libération Congolaise apparently enforces its strict code of conduct, celebrations of the ‘liberation’ of Gbadolite on 3 July. and Lisala Prison holds several dozen soldiers accused of corruption Bemba is an economic liberal, having studied at the Institut Catholique and hostage-taking. des Hautes Etudes Commerciales in Brussels. The MLC’s Secretary

2 1 September 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 17 helicopters. bombing late last year and early this year. But it was the rebels who won. During a counter-offensive on 9 The determination to fight Kabila’s army is such that, where August against the town of Dongo, half-way between Libenge and bombing has not forced people into the forest or across the river into Imese, the ALC’s RPGs sank a river-boat carrying troops of Kabila’s Congo-B, residents sometimes beat up the rare rebel deserters to Forces Armées Congolaises (FAC) and 124 Zimbabweans - as the force them back to the front. Bemba calls his fighters his ‘children’, only Zimbabwean survivor, Corporal Tsamba, told Agence France the Bana Bemba or Bana Mboka. For the most part they do not Presse. The MLC’s communique claimed that it had captured a great maltreat local people, even though they are unpaid, and the locals deal of equipment and killed 800 soldiers, including many Katangese supplement the food they get from the MLC itself. In Gbadolite, from the FAC’s 10th Brigade. Libenge and Dongo, residents have elected their administrators According to the Kampala daily, New Vision, a FAC officer captured Ugandan-style, by queuing up behind the candidate of their choice by the MLC said that the 10th Brigade was trained by North Korean - which is at least more democratic than Kabila’s system. forces in Katanga in the late 1990s. This has prompted further Another sign of Kabila’s unpopularity is that in mid-June, in the discussion about the increasing role of North Korean forces in the Waka area near Basankusu, around 20,000 people fled government Congo war as Zimbabwe reduces its contingent. Six years ago North areas to take refuge behind rebel lines. The FAC, operating in hostile Korea agreed to shut down a suspect nuclear reactor in exchange for territory, tends to open fire indiscriminately. The ALC’s guerrillas allowing a safer light-water plant to be built by a -led conserve their ammunition and, thanks to support from the local consortium. The favourite scare story among opposition sources in population, can move along the river and through the forest which Kinshasa is that Kabila is selling cheap uranium to North Korea in the Katangese and Zimbabweans fear. On 17 August the ALC beat exchange for military aid. No one has produced evidence to support back an attack by the FAC at Bogenye on the River Congo, killing the claim, including Western embassies and their networks in Kinshasa. (it claims) about 60 men from the FAC’s 543rd battalion and taking Yet in Congo few are ready to totally discount such information on the same number of prisoners. Radio Trottoir, if only to avoid rude shocks. Kisangani, now controlled by the RCD-Goma and its Rwandan allies, may be the next flashpoint. A spokesperson for the RCD-Goma, in Brussels Tactical withdrawal on 18 August, claimed that the FAC is preparing a general offensive against The MLC Secretary General, Olivier Kamitatu, told Africa the town; he said that traffic has recently increased at Ikela airport in Confidential that two other government barges were stranded on Equateur, with Ukrainian pilots transporting military equipment (including, the at Moawiya, between Libenge and Dongo. ‘We saw he said, tanks) from the military base at Kamina in Katanga, as well as from dozens of corpses of government soldiers.’ The ALC had clearly Mbandaka and Kinshasa. After 10 August, when a government ultimatum ambushed the FAC and the Zimbabweans by making a tactical called on the RCD-Goma to evacuate Kisangani by the end of the month, withdrawal to Libenge, where the troops could be resupplied via the rebel organisations began to revive their common front and coordinate Gemena and Gbadolite in a few hours. From Libenge it takes three military operations. There is talk of political reunification, and on 19-20 days in a motor-dugout to reach Imese. August in Gbadolite there were high-level contacts between the MLC and The government forces lost the river battle mainly because the RCD-Goma. Sources in the headquarters of the other rebel movements say FAC and Zimbabwean commanders thought that the ALC could there are plans to include Ernest Wamba dia Wamba’s Ugandan-backed not survive a decline in support from Uganda. In fact President RCD-Mouvement de Libération. (which is now split into four factions). has been trying since the end of 1998 to help his The rebels are not about to reunite, given the enormous egos on show and Congolese allies to stand on their own feet, and Uganda now the conflicting aims of their Rwandan and Ugandan patrons. But Kabila’s contributes little more than a few artillerymen, doctors and threats encourage them to pull together. On the wider diplomatic front signallers. Kabila’s strategists failed to take account of the Kabila, by burying the hopes of peace raised at Lusaka, has annoyed even experience of ALC officers like Major Dieugentil Alembia who, his friends in Zimbabwe, who wanted to consider Rwanda’s offer to pull before joining Bemba, fought in Congo-B’s civil war, in the Cobra its forces back 200 km. on all fronts, and to stop fighting. He ignored the militias of President Denis Sassou-Nguesso, then led rebels of the appeal by Nancy Soderberg, of the US mission to the UN, to respect the now defunct Union des Nationalistes Republicains pour la Lusaka accords, then accused two American diplomats of spying and Libération (Unarel) in February 1999 when they captured Bolobo expelled them. Washington responded by deporting two Congolese town in Bandundu. diplomats: its disfavour is unlikely to end there. Other ALC commanders served in the late Mobutu Sese Seko’s Forces Armées Zairoises (FAZ) or Division Spéciale Présidentielle, escaped from Kabila’s reeducation camps’, and SOUTH AFRICA have fought the FAC since the lightning attack of August 1998 in Bas-Congo by Rwandan Commandant James Kabarehe. When the Bas-Congo attack failed, the rebels took their weapons and set Calling labour’s bluff off on foot for Maquela do Zombo in Angola (territory of the União Trades unionists argue about how hard to Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola); they then moved fight the government at a policy conference on to Kigali, and continued fighting alongside the RCD in Kisangani before joining up with Bemba. Black union militants are planning new clashes with the African Alongside these professional soldiers, mostly from Equateur National Congress government over jobs and labour law reform. But province (plus a few Mai-Mai and Banyamulenge enlisted by the many union leaders would prefer a compromise that preserves their old ALC), Bemba’s army includes many highly motivated young alliance with the ANC and the SA Communist Party (SACP). The recruits from areas devastated by the FAC. In the Dongo area argument between militants and leaders will dominate the policy alone, between July 1999 and March 2000, Africa Confidential saw conference of the Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) on 18 hundreds of burned huts, and homes which had been destroyed by September. The leaders will probably hold the line, although discontent 3 1 September 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 17

is rising fast among activists and their SACP allies. - Growth, Employment and Redistribution). The MLC will provide Steadily, and with some finesse, ANC leaders have marginalised smoke-filled rooms, beer and sandwiches, for hammering out trade- Cosatu and the SACP, presenting Cosatu with a stark choice. It can offs between wage-levels, productivity and shop floor peace. Nedlac accept a corporatist compromise with business and a market-friendly will then be supposed to confer legal status on what is decided in government, in which unions will have the least influence of the three informal contacts. partners. Or it can fight the ANC, which could threaten the unity of Formerly a fiery militant, Vavi said the MLC was ‘a tribute to the its own affiliated unions. Heavy historical baggage is tied up in the human spirit ... It signals a break with the past of adversarialism and ANC-Cosatu SACP alliance, the kingpin of the anti-apartheid struggle heralds a new era in bilateral relations between business and labour.’ - and the ANC is now the elected government of all the people. Yet Vavi worries that Nedlac - its president is Phillip Dexter, a former The ANC has to make its plans for November’s municipal elections. trades unionist, ANC MP and SACP politburo member who now has One union, the SA Municipal Workers Union, insists that the ANC considerable business interests - might be undermined as the new will only get its backing if the election manifesto is negotiated process unfolds. He says that if the labour reforms goes through as collectively with the unions and the Communists. Withdrawal of proposed they will lead to the mass destruction of jobs. some Cosatu support would weaken the ANC, particularly in kwaZulu/ Vavi has been won over to the corporatist compromise, but many in Natal and Western Cape, the two provinces where it lacks a majority, Cosatu have not. The federation, particularly at its middle and lower and do some damage in the seven provinces it does control, particularly levels, dismisses the government’s macro-economic strategy as anti- in Gauteng (greater Johannesburg). The ANC has fewer than half the labour and pro-business. Militants accuse ANC leaders of having sold members it had at its peak, when Nelson Mandela was elected in out to globalisation. Even if the Cosatu conference backs the 1994. Some activists are losing their interest in politics, some are compromise, the move will be shrouded in the ritual critique of joining opposition parties. government economic policy. Some unionists believe that a union-based radical alternative to the The rows over labour law reform, public sector job cuts and ANC would attract mass support, especially in the country’s fast privatisation are sharpened by the deadlocked annual wage negotiations growing cities and sprawling suburbs. Their confidence was spurred for the country’s 1.1 million civil servants. On 26 July, Labour by the lightning flash in June of Zimbabwe’s Movement for Democratic Minister Membathisi Mdladlana announced government plans to: Change. Conscious of the dangers of complacency, President Thabo allow the extension of the 45-hour week and 10-hour weekly overtime Mbeki and the ANC’s leaders denounce ‘graft’ and ‘careerism’ in the limit by mutual agreement; scrap premium pay on Sundays; strengthen party, to show how different they want to be from President Robert the obligation on employers, where retrenchments are under Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front. consideration, to consult with employees about part-time and job- sharing alternatives; and make it easier for small businesses to gain Liberal talk from the radicals exemptions from industry-wide wage settlements. Cosatu says With 1.8 million members, Cosatu is the largest and most militant of Mdladlana is provoking a political crisis and industrial conflict. South Africa’s union federations. Its policy conference this month Business leaders are disappointed that Mdladlana has not moved must map out a response to proposed labour law reform, to cuts of further towards deregulation. some 100,000 jobs in the public sector, and to the speeding up of Privatisation plans released in August by Public Enterprises Minister privatisation. The holders of most senior positions in Cosatu and its Jeff Radebe failed to impress either workers, employers or the member unions are also senior members of the SACP, and most of financial markets. The markets thought them too modest and lacking them back the corporatist compromise. in detail. Cosatu argued they would lead to further, large-scale job Emollient words come from the SACP’s two leading (and usually losses and increase inequality, as newly privatised utilities neglect abrasive) ideologues: General Secretary Blade Nzimande and his poor areas and focus on profitable services to already well-served deputy, Jeremy Cronin. Another SACP member, Cosatu’s usually sectors of the population. hard-line General Secretary, Zwelinzima Vavi, recently pledged his federation’s constructive participation in the newly created Millennium Privatisation that pleases no one Labour Council (MLC) which is meant to overcome blockages in The cautious line on privatisation from Radebe, a SACP Central negotiations between labour, business and government. Committee member, surprised nobody; his policy was enough to Until now, the key role has been played by the statutory National annoy the unions, not enough to excite investors. He says Spoornet Economic Development and Labour Council (Nedlac), which provides (rail) and Portnet (ports), the two main businesses in the state transport the legal framework for most labour negotiations. The government’s combine, Transnet, will be restructured on a commercial basis. chief economic policy-makers - Mbeki, Finance Minister Trevor The first phase of the initial sale of shares in Telkom, the Manuel and Trade and Industry Minister Alec Erwin (himself a telecommunications monopoly, should be completed by the end of former trade unionist) - are dissatisfied with what they see as Nedlac’s 2001. Eskom, the state power utility, will become a limited liability rigidity and formality, and with Cosatu’s attempts to call the shots. company, with transmission, distribution and generation in separate The MLC aims to foster informal and creative discussion between corporate entities. The four divisions of Denel, the state arms mainly black, often radical, labour leaders and mainly white, often manufacturer, will be managed as focused businesses dealing with conservative, business leaders. aerospace, ordnance, information technology and commerce. Nzimande, Cronin and Vavi seem to have joined other key players Radebe says the state could raise revenue of more than R12 billion in the ANC-led alliance who argue that rapid economic growth (US$1.74 bn.) a year over the next few years, which is much more than requires a three-way corporatist compromise between labour, business the total of R21 bn. budgeted from privatisation over the next three and government. (They see models in Ireland and The Netherlands, years. The allocation of the extra revenue will be fiercely debated. countries not much like South Africa.) The theory is that compromise Finance Minister Manuel favours further reductions in SA’s domestic will promote the stability and predictability that is required by investors debt, most of it inherited from the apartheid era - and burdensome and promoted by the government’s macroeconomic programme (GEAR because SA’s interest rates are high. The high repayment levels, in 4 1 September 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 17 turn, push domestic interest rates upwards, trapping the economy in a The estrangement between Mbeki and the ANC leadership, and vicious circle. Cosatu and the left faction of the SACP, does not yet presage a Others urge Manuel to use much of the R12 bn. a year for poverty challenge to the government. Union leaders could be drawn into relief and social programmes. Welfare Minister Zola Skweyiya and encouraging outbreaks of dissatisfaction from below, but seem unlikely others want a guaranteed minimum income for all South Africans, to throw down the gauntlet - although there is talk of creating a proposing an easy-to-administer, non-means-tested income. Payments separate ‘political centre’, perhaps as a precursor to a mass democratic, would be recouped from this in work and through taxation. socialist party. Many in Cosatu and on the left of the SACP distrust Government tactics over civil service restructuring have proved the corporatist compromise engineered by ANC leaders, but for want adroit, helped by the fact that the Minister for Public Service and of a coherent alternative they go along with it. Administration, Geraldine Fraser-Moloketi, is SACP Deputy Union acquiescence signals a shift in the economic debate. The Chairwoman. She has persuaded union leaders that restructuring is GEAR package, adopted after little consultation by the cabinet in 1996 needed to improve the quality of services, and persuaded the SACP, and the scourge of the left ever since, has through Mbeki’s and ahead of the ANC’s national general council meeting in June, to warn Manuel’s persistence almost been accepted by default. The political unions against ignoring the need to improve public services by left seems to accept that, barring a major crisis, GEAR will form the changing working conditions and methods. Fraser-Moleketi has also basis of economic policy. cunningly shifted responsibility for axing between 50,000 and 100,000 The central question now, according to some union economists, is civil service jobs. She has argued that two new legal packages - the how to promote rapid job-creating economic growth within the Public Finance Management Act and the Public Service Regulatory government’s prudent macroeconomic framework. The latest economic Framework - will require public service managers to draw up business forecasts predict further cuts in inflation and interest rates, and plans and show the numbers of staff needed to realise them. The stabilisation of the rand. But the projections for economic growth - 3.1 managers, not the minister, will decide how many jobs have to go. per cent this year, 3.5 per cent in 2001, 3.1 per cent in 2002 - fall far short of the high-growth record in south-east Asian economies. It is Model employer or exploiter? also increasingly accepted that the unions focus too much on the Public service unions, enraged by this manoeuvre, have forced her to demands of elite workers, the top 20 per cent of black wage-earners withdraw an earlier agreement on an overall skills audit. Thulas who take home nearly two-thirds of the income earned in black Nxesi, General Secretary of the SA Democratic Teachers’ Union households. Since the unemployed rarely belong to unions, the (SADTU), a Cosatu affiliate, complained that: ‘The state is no longer movement does not have much to say about mass unemployment (still a model employer, but is quickly becoming a model exploiter’. over 35 per cent on most measures) and mass poverty. If such basic Another public service union, Nehawu (National Education, Health issues find their way on to the Cosatu policy conference agenda, it will and Allied Workers’ Union), has threatened ‘blood in the streets’. The demonstrate that the unions’ agenda is evolving - as well as that of its fury is similar in the more conservative, once largely white, Public erstwhile in the ANC leadership. Servants Association. For the second year running, negotiations between the government and its employees have run into trouble. Last year, the government ZAMBIA failed to agree with the 12 public service unions (dominated by Cosatu affiliates) and unilaterally implemented its final offer. This year’s talks broke down again on 17 August, when the government refused Copper politics to budge from its 6 per cent across-the-board offer, and the two sides Long-delayed and undersold, the bungled are to reconvene on 31 August. The government position is linked to mines privatisation will have consequences its new inflation target: it has pledged itself to bring its measure of consumer price inflation (which excludes interest rates) within a 3 -6 Zambians’ belief in the brand new Republican Party faces its first test per cent band by the end of 2002. Inflation is currently running at on 26 September. By contesting seven by-elections, the party hopes about 8.6 per cent. It has put a 6 per cent ceiling on all public sector to give a voice to the discontents of voters in crucial Copperbelt wage negotiations. Many unionists see this as the beginning of a more constituencies, especially Luanshya, the former seat of its founder, formal prices and incomes policy. Ben Mwila, who was purged recently from the governing Movement But job losses will be the main issue at the Cosatu policy conference, for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD). The Republicans, like other one of whose discussion documents is deeply critical of the tripartite opposition parties, will emphasise the government’s shambolic sale of alliance. ‘In practice, Cosatu and the SACP ... have little or no say in the copper mines (AC Vol 41 No 16). government policy.’ The alliance is merely used as a transmission belt The new party will not stand or fall because it wins or loses seats ‘to get the democratic movement to agree to policies that originated less than a month after Mwila, the ex-Environment Minister, founded within the bureaucracy or business. Government presented major it. Yet the future will look dim if it fails to win a single constituency, proposals, especially on the economy, as faits accomplis, in some particularly as two previous members of parliament, booted out in July cases with no effective consultation’. by the MMD for backing Mwila’s presidential ambitions, are standing Mutual confidence is declining: ‘Government has not even tried to again. Mwila is not taking that risk, preferring to focus on building his implement much of the ANC election manifesto... Some in government party and preparing for next year’s presidential contest. seem uncomfortable about consulting the Alliance partners on major Mwila claimed that the launch of his party on 19 August was policies’. Promised meetings between the alliance partners have ‘Zambia’s finest moment’. The near-moribund mining town of never occurred. Cosatu President Willie Madisha warned last week Luanshya illustrates what Mwila called the ‘mass hopelessness’ that that the ANC is dominating the alliance rather than allowing the three he promises to eradicate - after being part of the government that parties to reach decisions collectively. He insists that the alliance must helped to create it. Last April, President apparently be restructured ‘to ensure its survival’. vowed never to return to the town, after belligerent mineworkers 5 1 September 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 17

booed him and alleged ‘incompetence’ by the new owners, the Binani Group. Mwila was not jeered at the party launch, despite the common Central, Dipak Patel, publicly fears that Konkola Copper Mines’ view that he stood by while Luanshya floundered. In these lean times, upfront payment of $30 mn. for Konkola, Nchanga and Nampundwe people want to see, without necessarily accepting, what’s on offer. mines may end up as a mere government book entry. The government’s support has ebbed in the past couple of years, as The Copperbelt’s anticipated boom, centred around KCM’s poverty bit harder and official corruption become ever more blatant. headquarters at Chingola, may benefit only a small, mainly foreign, Yet the MMD could still maintain its grip on power. Government elite. Some local suppliers are already profiting from increased efforts to cushion austerity have worked for some, at least. Municipal mining activity and prompt payment; many more have already gone to houses have been sold off at bargain prices to civil servants and the wall, while others cannot compete with cheaper South African miners, and in recent weeks the Presidential Housing Initiative, suppliers. Years of mismanagement, and sluggish privatisation, have financed from the presidential slush-fund, has stepped up building ruined the towns that grew on the back of the mines. Massive (and vote-buying) work in needy townships. redundancies and collapsed businesses have driven thousands of It is hard to overstate the political, economic and social significance people to seek a living as subsistence farmers, charcoal-burners or of the sale, on 31 March, of the state’s remaining copper mines. small traders. Few have gone back to the remote, even poorer, villages Despite years of decline, they remain at the heart of the economy. The where they started their lives. government is saddled by a US$770 million debt from the former The private mines offer few new jobs and the mines’ peculiar Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines but the sale provides some relief socioeconomic set-up is hard to dismantle. In colonial times, white for the technocrats struggling to get the economy back on course and workers were attracted by subsidised housing, electricity, water, has reopened the flow of foreign funds, crucial for the government’s hospitals, education, entertainment and even funeral services. These fiscal balancing act. The World Bank released a $40 mn. credit in benefits were extended to all employees after nationalisation in 1969, June, some $1.1 billion was pledged over two years at July’s meeting widening managers’ responsibilities far beyond the pitheads. KCM of the donors’ Consultative Group and the International Monetary (owned by Anglo American) and Mopani (a coalition of Canada’s Fund has resumed lending under the Poverty Reduction and Growth First Quantum Minerals and Swiss metals trader Glencore which Facility (PRGF), disbursing $13.2 mn. on 17 August. All this may bought Mufalira and Nkana mines) at first refused to provide any help restore confidence among businesses and new investors. social services, even for the recommended two-year transition period. They argued that their business was mining, not welfare work. Jumping through economic hoops Hoping to avoid scapegoating during the fight for Copperbelt votes, Renewed donor funding involves proper scrutiny of the government’s they have had a rethink and now acknowledge that the need to ensure economic programme. The IMF was in Lusaka in the last week of a skilled and healthy workforce, and to offer free health care and August, assessing Zambia’s eligibility for debt relief under the enhanced primary education. However, the miners, always politically volatile, scheme for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). No debts would remain restive. When the Nchanga miners refused to pay water bills, be identified for cancellation until, at the very earliest, the end of the KCM decided to avert unrest by deducting payments from their wages. year. The ‘decision point’, when Zambia’s eligibility for debt The squatter problem is huge. The Chingola council learned a few cancellation is to be announced, is scheduled for November. The weeks ago, from a visiting researcher, that it is responsible for up to latest version of the HIPC debt reduction scheme has telescoped the 20,000 people who had been allowed over the years to settle informally process making it possible for Zambia to start receiving debt relief by on Nchanga mine land. The central government has not so far the end of next year. Much depends on the IMF’s mid-term review of informed the council that huge tracts of land formerly belonging to Zambia’s economic reform programme due next year ZCCM have reverted to the state, which in practice, means to the If the Chiluba government passes the economic tests, some $2.5 dilapidated and emasculated council. ‘We’re the last to hear about bn. of Zambia’s total foreign debt of $6.5 bn would be written off decisions made in Lusaka that have a profound effect on us’, said one under HIPC. This will have a huge effect on state finances. This year council worker wearily. foreign debt service is running at $169 mn. but is due to rise to $235 KCM was happy to refuse to take over land reserved for future mn. next year when repayments start on credits to the IMF under its exploration because, say insiders, Nchanga is a mere afterthought for Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility. This is providing that the company, whose main target is the world-class ore deposits at the Zambia gains HIPC debt relief; without it, repayments could run as Konkola mine at Chililabombwe. KCM says that ZCCM (which high as $600 mn. - a catastrophe for the national exchequer. continues as a holding company, with a small share in each mine) By next year’s IMF review, the government has promised to have intends to sub-divide some of the spare land into farm plots for privatised the distribution and sales sector and worked out resettlement. Yet the council has not been officially told about that how to privatise the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation, Zesco. scheme and has no funds for the purpose. Anyway, settling people on Both are politically sensitive. Rising world oil prices have pushed up farm plots would mean moving other people away and the displaced the cost of transport and therefore the price of food: the monthly might claim that the government was evicting them - not a good idea inflation rate leapt to 4.2 per cent in July from 0.7 in June. Although at election time. drowning in debt, Zesco used to bankroll the governing party. Lusaka is still untouched by the ripples of renewed activity in the The driving force behind the reformist camp, Finance Minister mining districts; it will be at least 18 months before the rest of the Katele Kalumba, must keep a tight grip on the purse-strings, accelerate economy benefits from the mines’ privatisation. Nobody in the capital sluggish reform of the public sector and crack down on official had expected a shortage of foreign exchange. Since the mines were corruption in the run-up to next year’s elections, which threaten the sold, output has increased and so have export earnings - yet there is less MMD’s monopoly for the first time in a decade. The sale of the mines foreign currency on the market than in ZCCM’s last, barren, days. The is ammunition in the battle for power. Plenty of voters, especially street dealers may have dollars for sale but the commercial urban voters, resent what they see as giveaway prices and lavish haven’t. Foreign exchange deposits have increased to $200 mn. but concessions. The independent member of parliament for Lusaka uncertain about economic prospects, people hold onto them and don’t 6 1 September 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 17 convert them into kwacha. Because hard currency is hard to find, He argued that the Hutu groups would be right to refuse to sign an accord people are willing to pay more for it; the kwacha, now selling at until they were convinced the peace process was irreversible. K3,310 to one dollar, has slid by 19 per cent since April. So Such arguments are music to the ears of ‘Colonel’ Jean-Bosco commercial banks, too, are holding onto dollars reckoning that the Ndayikengurukiye’s Conseil National pour la Défense de Démocratie- kwacha has not yet bottomed out. Forces pour la Démocratie (CNDD-FDD) , Kabora Khossan’s Forces The main source of foreign exchange is, of course, copper, even Nationales de Libération (FNL) and Joseph Karumba’s Front National more so since other exports have slumped because of the war in de Libération (Frolina). Some suggest that Mandela was unduly neighbouring Congo-Kinshasa. ZCCM used to sell the currency it influenced by the CNDD-FDD’s skilled representative in Pretoria, Jean- earned to the commercial banks at wholesale prices and tried to ensure Marie Ngendahayo, who drew parallels between apartheid in South each bank had a fair share. Africa and Tutsi political domination in Burundi. But KCM and Mopani have tried to behave more like regular On the eve of Arusha, CNDD-FDD spokesman Jerome Ndiho said his profit-seeking businesses: they look for the highest retail bid for organisation would not even start negotiating for a cease-fire unless three foreign exchange; in turn the banks increase their rates to their retail conditions were met: the release of 11,000 prisoners which it regards as customers and also reinforce the slide of the kwacha. The US dollar political detainees (but which the government accused of genocide); the is currently selling at between K3,200 and K3.350, a fall of almost 20 dismantling of the regroupement camps - often referred to as ‘concentration per cent since April. The Bank of Zambia (central bank), is trying to camps’ because civilians are sometimes forcibly herded into them; and the make the new mines owners realise that they are not ordinary players return of all Hutu civilians to their own areas. in the market but are market makers in effect and that their foreign This negotiating position makes it clear that even if all the parties at the exchange strategy will have repercussions across the economy. The Arusha meeting had signed the accord they would not have brought peace. current foreign exchange ructions are likely to be just the start of the Not only would the Hutu militias refuse to surrender their arms but privatisation fall-out. apparently step up their violence. On 9 August, a band of Hutu guerrillas burned a palm tree plantation and disembowelled 40 cows in Makamba BURUNDI province. On 16 August a government military contingent was ambushed near the Ruvubu reserve and the commander of the 4th military region, Col. Balthazar Nzeyimana was killed. And on 21 August a grenade exploded in the Buyenzi market, west of Bujumbura. Under Kilimanjaro Apart from the pre-signing violence, there are doubts about the political This rushed peace accord with little political approach. The plan was that Buyoya would remain head of state for a pre- will behind it may worsen the conflict transition period of five to six months and that the transition proper would last 30 months, overseen by a head of state chosen by a consensus of The clearest thing about the accord signed in Arusha on 28 August is its lack signatories to the accord. But at Arusha the three main groups - G7 (Hutu of finality and substance. None of the key issues - such as the new parties), G2 (the Government and National Assembly), and G10 (Tutsi , structure of power-sharing or reform of the military and parties) could not even agree on a candidate amongst each other. security services - were agreed by all or even a majority of Burundi’s After some haggling two possibilities emerged: from the G7, Domitien quarrelling military and political factions. President Pierre Buyoya, who Ndayizeye from the Front pour la Démocratie au Burundi (Frodebu) and had delayed his appearance at the signing ceremony for several hours Colonel Bayaganakandi from the G10. ‘You will understand that we because of a dispute over the timing of the accord’s implementation, put cannot leave a Hutu President to negotiate a cease-fire with Hutu guerrillas a gloss on it: ‘Signing a peace agreement is only the first step in the quest on our behalf,’ a G10 official told Africa Confidential. Neither was there for peace . . . negotiations will continue.’ any agreement about reserved seats for the Tutsi minority in the National Buyoya’s tact is understandable. On one hand he was strong-armed Assembly and Senate, or the pace of reform of the military and police into the 28 August signing by mediator-in-chief Nelson Mandela whose Finally, the Tutsi negotiators refused to support the deployment of an diplomatic pulling power had brought 20 heads of state, including United international peacekeeping force in Burundi while the Hutu groups failed States President Bill Clinton, to Arusha to the ceremony. If Buyoya to establish the principle of a general amnesty. Nor was there progress hadn’t gone along with the signing he and his Uprona party would have towards establishing an international legal process to try those charged lost credibility with international organisations and Western governments. with genocide and war crimes. On the other hand, military sources suggest that at least two colonels warned Buyoya of an uprising by the mainly Tutsi-officered army should he concede too much ground in the negotiations. Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at Mandela strongly condemned the six Tutsi-dominated political parties 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. who refused to the sign the much revised peace document. ‘We have a Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. section of the leadership which does not care for the slaughter of innocent Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. Administration: Clare Tauben. people’, he said. Clinton diplomatically buttressed Mandela’s pleas: ‘I don’t understand how continued violence will build schools for your Annual subscriptions, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: children, bring water to your villages, make your crops grow and bring you UK: £278 Europe: £278 into the new economy . . . You have to find a way to support democracy Africa: £258 US:$697 (including Airmail) Rest of the World: £361 and respect for the majority; you must have shared decision-making and Students (with proof): £79 or US$126 share the benefits from living together.’ All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept But some European diplomats warn Mandela’s tactics smack of American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 partisanship. Although Mandela condemned the Tutsi parties for not 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 signing, he appeared to support the three Hutu guerrilla groups who had Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. not even bothered to attend the Arusha meeting, still less sign an accord. ISSN 0044-6483

7 1 September 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 17

more Islamist influence: Ethiopian troops have asylum in the United Kingdom amid claims Pointers crossed the border many times since 1997 to stop that he and his family have been harassed and Islamist expansion. assaulted by government security officials after There is a will, among civilians at least, for he broke off his engagement to Zanetor. On 30 SOMALIA peace, but Somali clan politics remain volatile. August his parents were bound over for a year to Most of the 12 previous reconciliation conferences keep the peace. They had been found guilty by collapsed in arguments over ministerial portfolios a government tribunal on 15 August of assaulting Possible president before any administration had been set up. government soldiers and offensive behaviour at President Abdulkassim is seen as tough and the Castle, the Presidential residence, after Is there a new president in Somalia? Not quite. uncompromising. But if he uses too heavy a hand enquiring about their son’s whereabouts. While But Abdulkassim Salat Hassan, who took the to deepen his political legitimacy, he might succeed Mr and Mrs Djentu were held in custody awaiting oath of office on August 20, is the nearest thing the only in reigniting Somalia’s civil wars. sentence, regarded them country has had to a recognised president since the as prisoners of conscience fall of Mohamed Siad Barré in 1991. Carrying snippets of love trysts and life with Abdulkassim was elected by the Transitional John Vernon the first family in banal detail, the Ghana media National Assembly, meeting since May at Arta in We are saddened to announce the death of is embarrassing the ruling National Democratic (where some 2000 had gathered), John Vernon, one of the founding directors Congress ahead of December’s elections when and urged on by President Ismail Omar Guelleh. of Africa Confidential. A liberal-minded President Jerry Rawlings (and First Lady After much horse-trading among the 20 candidates hereditary peer, the 10th Baron Vernon died, Nana Konadu Agyeman Rawlings) is to stand and supporters, Abdulkassim won a third round of aged 77, on 19 August 2000. Along with his down after 18 years in power. voting, 145 to 92, to beat his main rival Abdullahi friends, James Lemkin, Charles Janson, and Selassie’s version of the love match casts the Ahmed Addow. Charles March, Vernon founded Africa first family in a poor light. Initially, he got on There was little to choose between them: both Confidential in 1960 to provide analysis about well with Zanetor and the two exchanged had long careers under Barré and both are . political and economic developments in engagement rings. Her siblings (and their Addow is from the Saad sub-clan of the Habr Africa to inform the growing debate in Britain bodyguards) were regular visitors to the Djentuh Gidir/Hawiye clan (as is warlord Hussein about decolonisation strategy. family house in Accra. But after Selassie broke Mohammed Farah ‘Aydeed’); Abdulkassim is Vernon was able to contribute from a off the engagement - claiming that Zanetor was Ayr, the largest sub-clan of the Habr Gidir. Addow, position of special knowledge. Trained as a secretly dating her flying instructor at the same a former minister of finance and ambassador to barrister, he was an officer from 1950-55 in time - his problems started. Last November he Washington, had US backing. Abdulkassim, a Britain’s internal security service MI5. He was badly injured after being knocked off his graduate of Moscow University who became was at the Cabinet Office before moving to motorcycle by a truck. Bizarrely, after six deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister under the Colonial Office for a posting in . weeks in hospital, Selassie was charged with Barré, was backed by Djibouti, France, and sundry His principal concern at the time was that reckless riding and ‘driving into a truck’. Islamist groups in the region. A critic said one British decolonisation in Africa should be On 15 January, Selassie was taken by candidate knew where the assets were hidden and unambiguous, responsible and non-racial. A government security to President Rawlings’ the other knew where the bodies were buried. strong opponent of apartheid and the rebel headquarters at the Castle in Osu, Accra, where After winning the vote, President Abdulkassim Rhodesian regime ofIan Smith, Vernon he was badly beaten and had his head shaved flew into on 30 August and drove became a voice for liberal reform for Africa with a broken bottle. The following day through the capital’s streets guarded a by a lengthy in the House of Lords and in several Selassie’s mother and father went to the Castle convoy of technicals (pick-up trucks armed with international organisations. to demand the release of their son: they too were machine guns and mortars) and greeted by tens of He enlivened Africa Confidential’s board arrested and charged with assaulting the much- thousands of supporters. He soon heads for New meetings with his irreverence and feared commandos who guard the President’s York where he’s likely to get a swift endorsement exuberance. After Miramoor Publications, residence. Several weeks later government by the United Nations, whose Somalia office led of which he was a director, sold Africa soldiers razed 35 houses built by Mrs Dejntu’s by David Steven pushed for the conference. Confidential to Blackwell Publishers in 1994, real estate development company after claims Abdulkassim also wants financial support but this Vernon ended his active involvement with that her company didn’t own the land. may prove elusive. the paper but remained well-informed about But First Lady Mrs Rawlings dismisses More elusive still will be local recognition. Africa until the end. Sadly Vernon was Selassie’s version as fiction: there was nothing The Republic, itself unrecognised unable to attend Africa Confidential’s 40th more than a platonic relationship between her since its declaration of independence in 1991, anniversary conference in London in April daughter and Selassie - and the relationship was didn’t attend the Djibouti talks. Neither did the but his political and diplomatic knowledge broken off by Zanetor due to pressure of Puntland administration in the north-east set up was referred to with affection by several university work. Selassie’s parents, Mrs two years ago. Both have elected governments speakers from East Africa. We offer our Rawlings told Accra’s Joy FM radio, had been and their own administrations. They strongly sympathy to his family. trying to capitalise on their son’s acquaintance criticised the Transitional National Assembly in with their daughter but there was no question of Djibouti whose non-elected members represented maltreatment of them or their son. only themselves. Many had served Siad Barré, GHANA Yet Selassie’s case is a cause célèbre in including a significant number of military officers Accra and has revived other accusations of and others accused of human rights abuses. human rights abuses against the Rawlings All the warlords, bar Ali Mahdi Mohammed, Platonically yours government, many of whose officials could insist they will reject the new government. In face legal action for alleged brutality and Mogadishu, Abdulkassim will have to rely on an The plot reads like a cross between West African torture if they lose power at the end of the alliance with the Islamic Courts whose market literature and an American soap opera. year. Even if the Djentus’ appeal against controversial Chairman, Hassan Sheikh Yet the ‘love story’ - or mere ‘platonic conviction and sentence fails, the Rawlings Mohamed Abdi, has said he will put the Islamic relationship’ - between presidential daughter government will face close media interest in Court’s security at the disposal of the new Zanetor Rawlings and local business scion the details of Selassie’s political asylum government. Somalis are cautious about Islamic Selassie O’Sullivan-Djentuh now touches on application as it goes through the British Courts and neither nor Kenya want political intrigue. Selassie is seeking political legal system. 8