Week 5: Proxy Wars Non-Ideological Interventions “My enemy’s enemy is my friend”
● Ogaden War (1977-1978) US supports Maoists in Somalia
● Iran-Iraq War(1980-1988) ○ Both US and USSR support Saddam Hussein. Ogaden: Sino-Soviet Split
● Chinese mainland becomes communist in 1949 under Mao Zedong.
● Diverge from Soviet model ○ Still dependent on industrial aid
● Denunciation and split in 1959. Border War in 1969
● Chinese demand return of border territories.
● China initiates conflict.
● Soviets respond, imply larger war. Chinese Rapprochement with US
● China sees USSR as primary security threat.
● Tacit alliance with US after 1972. Ethiopian Revolution
● Ruled by Emperor Haile Selassie until 1974.
● Selassie overthrown by Army officers (Derg). Internal Fighting in Derg
● Marxists prevail by 1977.
● Seek Soviet aid and support.
● Soviets support Somalia prior to 1977. Why were the Soviets reluctant to support the Derg? What changed their minds? Why were the Soviets reluctant to support the Derg? ● Division in the Derg. ● Support in rival Somalia
What changed their minds? ● Mengistu’s rise to power. ● Somali distance. Somalia under Siad Barre
● Took power in coup in 1969.
● Maoist leaning.
● Soviet-backed until 1977. Somalia supports WSLF
● Barre seeks Greater Somalia
● Supports Western Somali Liberation Front in Ogaden in revolt.
● Somali troops join fighting Soviets back Mengistu; US and China support Somalia ● Soviet aid flows to new government in Ethiopia.
● Somalia invades with US and Chinese support The Ogaden War Supported by: Course of the War
● Initial success for Somalia
● Soviet, Cuban and South Yemeni troops intervene.
● Somali troops expelled Post-Ogaden War
Ethiopia Somalia
● 15-year civil war ● Barre overthrown after ● Mengistu overthrown in civil war. 1991. ● State collapse and ● Federal state disintegration. established. Ba’athist Iraq ● Secular nationalist Ba’ath (renaissance) Party comes to power in coup.
● Dominated by Sunni Arabs.
● Saddam Hussein absolute ruler by 1978. Saddam’s Rule
● Shia opposition
● Soviet client state Iranian Revolution
● Opposition to Shah’s rule widespread.
● Protests in 1977 and 1978.
● Shah overthrown by coalition in 1979. Ayatollah Khomeini establishes theocracy Iraq invades Iran; why? Iraq invades Iran; why?
● Threat from Shia theocracy.
● Expansion of territory; oil reserves.
● Uniting domestic opponents. Both US and USSR initially neutral Why? Both US and USSR initially neutral US ● Courted Iran ● Distrust Iraq USSR ● Also, courted Iran Iran recovers; invades Iraq in 1982 Military Support to Warring Parties US and USSR back Iraq; Why?
US US and USSR back Iraq; Why?
US USSR
● Contain spread of Shia theocracy.
● Hostage crisis in Lebanon. US and USSR back Iraq; Why?
US USSR
● Contain spread of ● Anti-communism in Shia theocracy. Iran. ● Retain influence in ● Hostage crisis in Middle East. Lebanon. ● Unrest in Soviet Central Asia + Afghanistan Iran-Iraq War: devastating stalemate
● No territorial changes.
● Almost 1 million dead (soldiers + civilians) Effects
● Emboldened Iraq invades Kuwait.
● Shia uprising in Iraq after Gulf War.
● Regional Sunni-Shia schism. Discussion Did superpowers obtain favorable outcomes from using proxies? Short term? Long term?
Are there problems in using proxy armies/states?
If so, would these problems have occurred without superpower intervention? Summary
● Ideology dissipates by 1970s and 1980s.
● Both superpowers willing to support ideological antagonists or mutual friends.
● Proxy wars are instrumental Next Week:
Military Action: The Good + Proposals due on November 8